Describe the 1st type of population reproduction. The first and second types of population reproduction
This lesson "Population size and reproduction" is the first in the "Geography of the world population" section. The lesson provides information about the main indicators and characteristics of the population. From the lesson, you will understand how the population can be regulated, which countries are pursuing a demographic policy, how the population of our planet has changed.
Topic: World population geography
Lesson: Population size and reproduction
There is a separate direction in geographical science -population geography- this is one of the main branches of economic and social geography.
The main way to determine the population for a certain period of time is to conduct a population census.
Population census- a single process of collecting, summarizing, analyzing and publishing demographic, economic and social data of the population, relating as of a certain time to all persons in the country or a clearly limited part of it. Upon completion of the population census, the collected data are processed and published. Population accounting arose in ancient times in connection with the tax and military activities of states and the tasks of their administrative structure. Even in the ancient Indian laws of Manu, rulers were instructed to take into account the inhabitants in order to find out their strength and determine taxes. In Egypt, population records have been carried out since the era of the Old Kingdom (2800 - 2250 BC). There is evidence that population records were kept in ancient China and ancient Japan. The population census is usually carried out every 5-10 years.
The population of the Earth has been constantly growing. The greatest population growth was observed in the 20th century. Currently, the world population exceeds 7 billion people.
Countries of the world with the largest population
|
The country |
Population |
the date |
% of the world's population |
A source |
||||
|
November 2012 |
||||||||
|
2. Federal portal Russian Education (). 4. The official information portal of the exam (). |
To maintain a simple reproduction of the population, it is necessary that 100 women produce 205 children.
Encyclopedic YouTube
1 / 5
Reproduction of the population | Geography Grade 8 #5 | info lesson
Population size and reproduction
population reproduction. Migration. Grade 10. Video lecture on geography
Population of Russia
The population of the Earth. Racial composition
Subtitles
Types and modes of population reproduction
archetype
In accordance with the change in the totality of demographic indicators, it is customary to distinguish three main historical types of population reproduction. The first and earliest of these is the so-called archetype of population reproduction. He dominated the primitive society, which was at the stage of the appropriating economy, and is now very rare, for example, among some tribes of the Indians of the Amazon. These peoples have such a high mortality rate that their numbers are declining.
Traditional (patriarchal)
The second type of reproduction, "traditional" or "patriarchal", dominates the agrarian or early industrial society. The main distinguishing features are very high birth and death rates, low average life expectancy. Having many children is a custom that contributes to better family activities in an agrarian society. High mortality is a consequence of the low standard of living of people, their hard work and poor nutrition, insufficient development of education and medicine. This type of reproduction is typical for many underdeveloped countries - Nigeria, Niger, India, Somalia, Uganda, Afghanistan, Yemen, Myanmar, Bangladesh and especially for Ethiopia and Angola, where the birth rate is 45 ‰, the death rate is 20 ‰ [ ], and the average life expectancy is only 43-47 years.
In a significant part of developing countries (Mexico, Brazil, Philippines, Pakistan, Libya, Thailand, South Africa, etc.), the "traditional" type of population reproduction has changed over the past decades. The death rate has dropped to 6-10‰ due to advances in medicine. But the traditionally high birth rate is largely preserved. As a result, the population growth here is very high - 2.5-3.0% per year. It is these countries with a “transitional” type of population reproduction that predetermine the high growth rates of the world population at the end of the 20th century.
Modern (rational)
The third, so-called "modern" or "rational" type of population reproduction, is generated by the transition from an agrarian economy to an industrial one. This type of reproduction is characterized by low birth rates, near-average mortality rates, low natural growth, and high average life expectancy. It is typical for economically developed countries with a higher standard of living and culture of the inhabitants. The low birth rate here is closely related to the conscious regulation of the size of families, and the high percentage of elderly people primarily affects the death rate.
Population reproduction mode
The process of self-preservation of the population in the course of continuous changes is called the reproduction of the population, and it is this that is the subject of demography. Reproduction of the population - the constant renewal of the size and structure of the population during the change of generations of people based on fertility and mortality, as well as migration. The set of parameters that determine this process is called population reproduction regime.
Population reproduction rates
Gross reproduction rate
The gross reproduction rate of the population is calculated on the basis of the number of girls that each woman will give birth to on average during her entire reproductive period and is equal to the total fertility rate multiplied by the proportion of girls among newborns:
R = Δ × T F R = Δ × ∑ 15 49 A S F R x (\displaystyle R=\Delta \times TFR=\Delta \ \times \sum _(15)^(49)ASFR_(x))
R (\displaystyle R)- gross reproduction rate
T F R (\displaystyle TFR)- total fertility rate
A S F R x (\displaystyle ASFR_(x))- age-specific fertility rates
∆ (\displaystyle \Delta )- proportion of girls among newborns
If the calculation is carried out at 5-year intervals, namely such data are usually available, then the formula for calculating the gross reproduction rate has an additional factor of 5 in its last part.
Net reproduction rate of the population (Böka-Kuchinsky coefficient)
Otherwise, the net reproduction rate of the population is called the net reproduction rate of the population. It is equal to the average number of girls born in a woman's lifetime and surviving to the end of the reproductive period at given birth and death rates.
The net reproduction rate of the population is calculated using the following approximate formula (for data on 5-year age groups):
R 0 = Δ ∑ 15 49 ASFR x 1000 × L xl 0 (\displaystyle R_(0)=\Delta \ \sum _(15)^(49)(\frac (ASFR_(x))(1000))\times (\frac (Lx)(l_(0))))
All designations are the same as in the formula for the gross coefficient 5L x (\displaystyle 5Lx) and - respectively, the number of people living in the age interval (x + 5) years from the table of female mortality, and l 0 (\displaystyle l_(0)) is its root. The factor 1000 in the denominator of the fraction is added in order to calculate the net rate per woman.
True Rate of Natural Increase
The net reproduction rate of the population () shows that the number of a stable population corresponding to the real one with the given general birth and death rates, which are taken unchanged, changes (that is, increases or decreases) in R 0 (\displaystyle R_(0)) once in a while T, that is, for the length of a generation. Taking this into account and accepting the hypothesis of exponential growth (decline) of the population, we can obtain the following relationship linking the net coefficient and the generation length:
- "Transition":
- the death rate is reduced to 6-10 ‰ due to advances in medicine
- traditionally high birth rate is maintained or reduced at a slow pace
- very high population growth - 2.5-3% per year
It is typical for Mexico, Brazil, India, etc. - it is due to them that high population growth rates in the world are observed at the end of the 20th century.
The type of reproducibility of an industrial society. It is typical for economically developed countries with a high standard of living and culture of the population.
Historical types of population reproduction
With a historical approach to the typology of population reproduction, the main criteria for its types are the socio-economic conditions of society, as well as demographic relations - specific social relations that appear between people regarding the creation and preservation of human life. A historically defined type of demographic equilibrium, together with the type of demographic relations corresponding to it, characterizes the historical types of population reproduction. Category type of population reproduction in its modern form, it includes the unity of the intensity of demographic processes (mortality, marriage, birth rate) and the mechanisms of their social regulation, characteristic of this stage of social development.
A. Vishnevsky considers different types of population reproduction as successive stages in the demographic history of mankind. These stages correspond to the already mentioned three main stages of human history: the society of the appropriating economy, the agrarian and industrial societies. Two main types of population reproduction are well studied - traditional (extensive) And modern or rational (intense).
Before them, there was an original type - archetype reproduction of the population, characteristic of a pre-class society that existed in an appropriating economy. The number of primitive population almost did not grow. Due to the extremely high mortality, which can be called "supermortality", due to famine, epidemics, life expectancy was 18-20 years. Therefore, many tribes of people simply died out, and the total population almost did not increase for centuries. In some cases, there was even a decrease in the population
Replaced the archetype the traditional type sometimes called primitive or pre-industrial. He dominated in societies, the economic basis of which was the agrarian economy. This long period in history was characterized by a low level of development of productive forces, man's dependence on the elemental forces of nature, countless epidemics, wars and outbreaks of famine.
At this stage, the conditions for the birth and death of people have changed significantly, and the possibilities for population growth have expanded. The agrarian type of demographic balance was answered by its own system of cultural regulators, which provided support for this balance. The demographic behavior of people was regulated by tradition, oriented towards unchanging patterns established by traditions that did not require a rational explanation. Throughout the entire period of domination of the agrarian economy, the conditions of demographic equilibrium remained unchanged. The socio-cultural mechanism that regulated the demographic behavior of people remained predominantly of the same type.
With the transition from an agrarian to an industrial economy, the nature of man's dependence on nature is radically changing. There are prerequisites for the formation modern, or rational type of population reproduction. The leap in the development of productive forces created the material basis for the emergence of a new type of demographic equilibrium and necessitated bringing the demographic mechanism in line with it.
The traditional exogenous factors of mortality are becoming a thing of the past, its new historical type is being formed, and a fundamentally different order of population extinction is being established. This radically changes the conditions for maintaining the demographic balance and causes a transformation in the type of birth rate. The whole system of demographic relations is changing radically, they are acquiring an active and flexible character, which allows for wide freedom of individual choice. The economy and stability of the demographic process is growing.
The transition from the old type of population reproduction to the new one covers a long historical period, during which the conditions for a new demographic equilibrium are formed, and the old system of demographic regulation is in crisis. The population acquires new qualitative features of reproduction only after the demographic revolution . Demographic revolution represents a fundamental qualitative change in the process of population reproduction, a break with the old methods of demographic regulation. In the process of evolution of demographic relations, humanity has experienced two demographic revolutions.
The first demographic revolution, which marked the change of the archetype to the traditional type of population reproduction, was inextricably linked with the socio-economic upheaval, known as the Neolithic revolution. The emergence of agriculture, new methods of its conduct and the corresponding forms of social life required a different spatial concentration of people and an increase in their numbers. There have been profound changes in the organization of the private life of people, their work, life, study, communication and, as a result, in the conditions in which the birth and upbringing of children took place.
Second demographic revolution ensured the transition from the traditional type of population reproduction to its modern type. It matured for several centuries in the process of demographic transition, which began in Western Europe at the time of the birth of capitalist relations in the depths of feudal society. The period between the Great Geographical Discoveries and the Industrial Revolution in England was a transitional one, both socio-historically and demographically. This historical period prepared the transition of Western European society from a predominantly agrarian and rural society to a predominantly industrial and urban one. He played the same role in preparing the transition to the ubiquitous spread of the modern type of population reproduction.
This transition began approximately at the end of the 17th - in the middle of the 19th century and has not been completed in most of the planet even to this day. There were radical changes in the structure of the causes of death and in the structure of demographic behavior, uncontrolled exogenous mortality and uncontrolled birth rates began to decline rapidly, which marked the beginning of the second demographic revolution.
With the beginning of the demographic revolution, the asynchrony of demographic development intensified. The speed of the population passing through each of these phases, their interaction with each other, the sequence of their distribution to different social groups in society depend on many specific historical conditions. Therefore, the demographic revolution itself took place and is taking place in different countries and in different periods of time in different ways.
Thus, the first phase of the demographic revolution is a revolution in mortality, the second is a revolution in fertility. Each of them reflects the fundamental qualitative shifts in the system of social control over mortality and fertility and finds expression in the corresponding quantitative changes - in a decrease in the level of both of these processes. As a rule, the second phase occurs more or less a long time after the first. During this time, ever-decreasing mortality is matched by a high birth rate, as a result of which population growth accelerates sharply even in comparison with the accelerated growth that often precedes the onset of a demographic revolution. This acceleration lasts until the second phase of the demographic revolution arrives. Then the acceleration of population growth stops, and as the decline in the birth rate “catches up” with the decline in mortality, and sometimes even “overtakes” it, population growth slows down. Upon completion of the demographic revolution, the dynamics of the population depends on factors not related to the transition to the reproduction of the population of the modern type, it begins to obey the laws inherent in the new historical type of reproduction of people.
The difference in timing of the beginning and the asynchronous development of both phases of the demographic revolution leads to the fact that over a relatively short time there is population explosion, and the population is experiencing a very rapid increase in numbers, which may increase in a century to a much greater extent than in all previous history. The power of such an explosion can be different and depends on the specific situation in which the demographic revolution is taking place. Thus, the population of foreign Europe increased during the 19th century. from 160 to 295 million people (by 135 million, or 85%) and gave several tens of millions more emigrants to the New World. The population explosion in Western Europe stopped very quickly - at the beginning of the 20th century - as a result of a rapid decline in the birth rate. However, modern world population explosion associated with the implementation of the demographic revolution in the countries of the third world, has reached unprecedented strength and has become a problem of global importance.
Developing countries did not know the early stages of the demographic transition. It started all at once, with a rapid jump from the old to the new type of mortality, and in many of these countries the mortality rate is now much lower than in the 19th century. The second phase of the demographic revolution in these countries, at best, has just begun, and even then not everywhere. Therefore, the excess of births over deaths reaches enormous proportions.
In some cases, there may not be a population explosion. Explosive population growth is a temporary phenomenon, they disappear at the end of the demographic revolution, instead, its other consequences remain with humanity forever. This is the demographic aging of the population. In the process of transition to the modern type of population reproduction, its age structure undergoes radical changes: the proportion of younger age groups is steadily declining, while the proportion of older ones is increasing. This phenomenon is called demographic aging. Its main reason is the declining birth rate. Population aging is one of the irreversible changes associated with the transition to a new type of population reproduction. A population that has experienced a demographic revolution will never return to the age structure in which mankind has lived throughout its history.
Send your good work in the knowledge base is simple. Use the form below
Students, graduate students, young scientists who use the knowledge base in their studies and work will be very grateful to you.
Hosted at http://www.allbest.ru/
abstract
Types of population reproduction
Introduction
The evolution of population reproduction is closely related to changes in the socio-economic conditions of people's life. Together with social development, both the parameters of fertility and mortality, as well as their interaction in the reproductive process, changed. In different periods of human history, including the present, the ratios between births and deaths in the populations of different countries are different. Related to this is the differentiation of the final results of the interaction between fertility and mortality, i.e. population reproduction. extended, when the younger generations are larger in number than the older ones; narrowed, here the younger generations are numerically smaller than the older ones; and simple, in which the numbers of younger and older generations are equal.
In the context of the historical development of the population, along with social progress, a transition was made from one type of reproduction to another, which was most clearly expressed in the change from having many children to having few children. Despite the general trend of changing historical types of population reproduction, this change in countries with different levels of socio-economic development and in different ethnic groups did not take place and does not take place at the same time. Moreover, the levels and intensity of changes in both aspects of population reproduction - fertility and mortality, i.e. what characterizes its regime are different for different populations. The population reproduction regime represents its quantitative measure and combines both the birth rate regime and the mortality regime. Accordingly, the indicators of population reproduction take into account the importance of both.
1. conceptpopulation reproduction
The study of population reproduction took shape in the 19th-20th centuries. as the public need to understand the demographic changes taking place in the world grows. The first attempts to comprehend the reproduction of the population as a unity of fertility and mortality were made as early as the 18th century by the mathematician L. Euler. For a long time, interest in the analysis of individual aspects of the "natural" movement of the population clearly prevailed over their synthesis in the study of the reproduction of the population as a whole. Only in the first decade of the 20th century, in connection with the creation of a stable population model, did it become possible to see the process of population reproduction as something integral, to understand its internal quantitative dependencies.
The reproduction of the population is a probabilistic process, one of the main processes of the reproduction of society, which forms a mass of random, single events - births and deaths. The long-term existence of populations presupposes the preservation of the fundamental conditions for their interaction with the external environment, which is possible only if the flow of demographic events is not chaotic, but ordered in a certain way. Such orderliness really takes place and is a consequence of the self-organization of the demographic system. These processes also take place in nature, due to which the continuity of the reproduction of plant and animal populations and the relative stability of their numbers are achieved. The management of population reproduction in nature has a biological basis.
With the advent of human society, the system for regulating the reproduction of populations undergoes a qualitative change, biological mechanisms for managing reproduction are replaced by social ones, we are talking about managing not processes that occur at the individual level - birth and death remain biological phenomena - but about consciously stimulating or curbing fertility and mortality at the level of populations.
Considering the reproduction of the population only as the processes of reproduction of people - as carriers of all social relations, without specifying this concept, the idea may arise that the concept of "reproduction of the population" is expanded to the concept of "processes of social production". Consequently, the study of population reproduction in all the richness of their social characteristics leads to blurring of the boundaries of the very process of population reproduction.
According to Medkov, the reproduction of the population is the constant renewal of its size and structure, both through the natural replacement of outgoing generations with new ones, and the transition of one part to another.
According to the definition proposed in the encyclopedic dictionary "Population" - the reproduction of the population - this is a constant renewal of the population as a result of the processes of fertility and mortality, and for certain regions and migration. In a narrower sense, the reproduction of the population is the renewal of generations of people as a result of births and deaths.
Thus, despite the boundary of the life of each person, the population continues to exist, maintaining or changing its size and structure.
In a broad sense, the term "reproduction of the population" includes the renewal and development of the composition of the population: by sex and age; community groups; nationalities, marital status; education, professional staff.
2 . Teepopulation reproduction
There are three types of population reproduction:
Narrowed reproduction - when the living population does not reproduce a replacement for itself. The absolute number of outgoing generations exceeds the number of generations entering into life. This type is typical for countries with "zero" or close to it natural growth or with negative growth, i.e. countries where the death rate exceeds the birth rate. Demographers call this phenomenon depopulation or demographic crisis. Depopulation (from French depopulatin) a decrease in the population of a country, region as a result of narrowed reproduction, leading to absolute loss.
The decline in the birth rate in industrialized countries is usually associated with the spread of an urban lifestyle, in which children for parents turn out to be a "burden". In industrial production, the service sector requires highly qualified personnel. The consequence of this is the need for long-term studies, lasting up to 21-23 years. The decision to give birth to a second or third child is strongly influenced by a woman's high involvement in the labor process, her desire to make a career, to be financially independent.
Simple reproduction means that the generation of children replacing the generation of parents and the generation of parents are equal in their absolute numbers. In such a population, a permanent sex and age structure (stationary type) is formed. The total population is not increasing; under certain unfavorable conditions, there is a high probability of a transition to narrowed reproduction. It is characterized by low birth rates, death rates and, accordingly, natural increase. (This method has become widespread in the economically developed countries of Europe and North America).
Socio-economic reasons causing low birth rates:
High level of socio-economic development (incomes are growing in the family, and the number of children is decreasing);
High level of urbanization - 75%, rapid income growth;
Changing the status of women, emancipation and the emergence of a new value system;
Increase in the proportion of older ages;
- "aging of the nation" (Great Britain, France), a decrease in the age of the young;
Consequences of wars, military conflicts, terrorism;
Industrial injuries, man-made disasters (car accidents kill up to 250 thousand people annually), road traffic accidents (up to 60 thousand people die);
Mortality from diseases (AIDS, cancer);
Natural disasters.
Expanded reproduction is characterized by an increase in each new generation entering into life compared to the number of outgoing generations. A progressive type of sex and age structure is formed in the population, its absolute number is growing. This type of population reproduction is characterized by high and very high birth rates and natural increase and relatively low mortality rates. It is characteristic, first of all, for developing countries (the countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America).
Socio-economic reasons causing high birth rates of the population:
Low level of economic development, with the predominance of agriculture (developing countries);
Low level of urbanization - 41% (in rural areas, the birth rate is higher);
A peculiar social structure, religious customs that encourage large families;
Servitude of women, early marriages;
Using the achievements of modern medicine to combat epidemic diseases, improving sanitary culture;
Family planning bans in Muslim countries.
After gaining independence, these countries were able to make wider use of the achievements of modern medicine, sanitation and hygiene - primarily to combat epidemic diseases. This led to a rather sharp reduction in mortality. The birth rate, for the most part, remained at a high level.
3. The most important characteristics of population reproduction
reproduction social population economic
Among the most important characteristics of population reproduction are the so-called general birth and death rates of the population, which are calculated as the ratio, respectively, of the numbers of live births and the numbers of deaths during the calendar year to the average annual number of the present population.
Mortality. An analysis of the factors that led to Russia's huge lag behind countries with low mortality and the patterns of the main causes of death indicates that Russia has a very high mortality rate.
It is clear that if for decades the birth rate of the population has been declining, and the death rate is growing, the prospect of population decline (depopulation) becomes inevitable. It is enough to look at /P. 3/ to conclude that over the past 40 years in Russia, the death rate has been steadily increasing, the birth rate has not increased, and since the mid-1980s it has also begun to decline rapidly. This has led to the fact that since 1992 the death rate has steadily exceeded the birth rate.
The values of life expectancy indicate that even with an optimistic view of the future trend in mortality, Russia will not reach the levels of life expectancy available in most economically developed countries by 2015, but will only slightly approach them.
Fertility. We can expect stabilization or even some increase in the birth rate in the long term.
It is known that, as a rule, the birth rate among rural residents of Russia is higher than among urban ones. At the same time, in 1990, there were 13 territories in Russia where a higher birth rate was observed among the urban population.
These included the Pskov, Leningrad, Smolensk, Ryazan, Kursk, Bryansk, Voronezh, Belgorod, Lipetsk, Penza, Ulyanovsk and Magadan regions, as well as the Republic of Mordovia. In 1996, for the first five oblasts and the Republic of Mordovia, this situation persisted; in the remaining oblasts listed above, it reversed, and Novgorod oblast, the Republic of Komi, Kostroma and Ivanovo oblasts, and the Evenk Autonomous district, the Republic of Ingushetia and Kalmykia and the Sakhalin region.
As a hypothesis about the factors, the impact of which can lead to a lower birth rate of the rural population, we can propose a hypothesis about a significant decrease in the standard of living and the demographic potential of the rural population in the respective territories. Demographic potential is understood as some characteristic associated with an increased (high potential) or reduced (low potential) proportion of children and the female population capable of childbearing.
The most informative indicator characterizing the state and prospects for the reproduction of the population of a territory is the coefficient of natural increase, which is calculated as the difference between the total birth rate and the total mortality rate and does not depend on the direction and intensive migration exchange of a given territory with its surroundings. The coefficient of natural increase in the village and in the city is presented in the map in /P. 6/. A positive coefficient of natural increase means that the population of the territory under consideration is increasing, and a negative one means that the population of the territory is decreasing.
Consideration of the evolution of this indicator leads to disappointing conclusions - if in 1990 only for 22 out of 89 administrative territories of Russia the coefficient of natural increase was negative, then in 1996 it was already negative for 72 territories. On the cartograms presented in /P. 7/ shows the distribution of the coefficient of natural increase over the territories of Russia in 1990 and 1996.
natural increase. Negative indicators of natural increase are noted in all regions of the North-West, Central (except for the Bryansk and Oryol regions), other regions of the European part of Russia, with the exception of the North Caucasus, as well as East Siberian and Far Eastern regions.
The indicators of natural loss in the Nizhny Novgorod, Moscow and Sakhalin regions are 2.3 - 1.4 times higher than the average Russian (-13.0 - -8.0 ppm versus -5.7 in the Russian Federation). The excess of mortality over fertility is associated not only with the deterioration of socio-economic conditions as a result of market transformations in the economy, the decline in the standard of living of most of the Russian population, the continued aging of the population, immigration processes, and the increased loss of the working-age population: the share of the working-age population in the total number of deaths reaches thirty%. The unfavorable ecological state of the environment in many regions of the Russian Federation also influences the decline in the total population. According to experts from the World Health Organization, up to 30% of diseases of the population are caused by anthropological pollution of the environment. Natural decline is also characteristic of the states of Western and Central Europe (Germany, Italy, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania) and individual CIS countries (Ukraine and Belarus). However, Russia is significantly superior in this indicator to the noted foreign states.
The positive dynamics of natural growth persists in the national formations of the North Caucasus, the Volga region, Eastern Siberia and the Far East. High population growth is observed in Ingushetia (24 people per 1000 people), Tuva (20 people), and the Republic of Sakha (15 people). This is due to the preservation of the historically established traditions of large families in these republics, as well as the high proportion of the population living in rural areas, where the birth rate remains high.
Population migration is the process of moving people across the borders of certain territories with a change of permanent place of residence or with a regular return to it. Migration of the population contributes to the exchange of labor skills, experience and knowledge, promotes the development of the individual, affects the family composition and gender and age structure, and leads to the renewal of personnel. It allows at each stage of economic development to achieve a certain distribution of labor resources corresponding to a given territorial organization of productive forces, to achieve a dynamic balance between the demand and supply of labor in the economic regions of the country, taking into account its qualitative characteristics.
In recent years, the importance of migration has sharply increased in the formation of the population and its distribution throughout the country.
The main factors affecting migration in the future will be:
The pace of economic development, the speed and depth of market transformations;
Geography of the field of labor potential within Russia and the former USSR;
Geopolitical position of Russia;
Insufficient demographic potential of Russia, inadequate to its territory.
Thus, the influx of population from the countries of the new abroad will be the most important source of migration growth in the population of Russia in the coming decades. In addition, one should expect a significant migration to Russia of representatives of the indigenous ethnic groups of Central Asia, Transcaucasia, and to a lesser extent - Kazakhstan, associated in conditions of agrarian overpopulation with pushing surplus labor resources in search of jobs. Russia is one of the most probable directions of economic migration of the population from Central Asia and Transcaucasia.
Conclusion
Summarizing the results of the work done, the following conclusions can be drawn. Reproduction of the population is, in fact, the interaction of two components of the processes: fertility and mortality. The intensity of births and deaths is due to many factors, some of which affect both processes, others either on one or the other. But all the factors in the aggregate, and among them the most significant are socio-economic and ethno-cultural, affect the reproduction of the population. In turn, they also influence many social processes to varying degrees.
There are three types of population reproduction:
Narrowed reproduction - when the living population does not reproduce a replacement for itself. The absolute number of outgoing generations exceeds the number of generations entering into life.
Simple reproduction means that the generation of children replacing the generation of parents and the generation of parents are equal in their absolute numbers. In such a population, a permanent sex and age structure (stationary type) is formed.
And expanded reproduction, which is characterized by an increase in each new generation entering life compared to the number of outgoing generations. A progressive type of sex and age structure is formed in the population, its absolute number is growing.
Listused literature
1. Electronic encyclopedia "Krugosvet" /http://www.krugosvet.ru/
2.http://sergeev-sergey.narod.ru/start/glava.html
3. Population. Encyclopedic Dictionary. - M., 1994. - p. 35
4. Aleksandrova I.V. Reproduction of the population as an object of social management (on the example of a mono-industrial city). - Kazan: RIC "School", 2007. - p. 168.
5. Breeva E.B. Fundamentals of Demography: Textbook. - M.: Publishing and Trade Corporation "Dashkov and Co", 2004. - p. 352.
6. Zvereva N.V. Fundamentals of Demography: Textbook / N.V. Zvereva, I.N. Veselova, V.V. Elizarov. - M.: Vyssh.shk., 2004. - p. 374.: ill.
7. Medkov V.M. Demography: Textbook. - M.: INFRA - M, 2004. - p. 576.
8. Osipov G.V. Sociology. Fundamentals of the General Theory: Textbook for High Schools / Ed. ed. Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences G.V. Osipov, L.N. Moskvichev. - M.: Ed. NORMA - INFRA - M, 2002. - p. 912.
9. Simagin Yu.A. Territorial organization of the population: Textbook / Ed. ed. V.G. Glushkova. - M., 2004.
Hosted on Allbest.ru
...Similar Documents
The evolution of population reproduction and its connection with changes in the socio-economic conditions of people's life. The general trend of changing historical types of population reproduction. Essence indicators and main types of population reproduction.
abstract, added 03/22/2013
Characteristics of the main types of population reproduction. The archetype of population reproduction during the first demographic revolution. The traditional type of population reproduction and its historical limitations. Modern type of population reproduction.
abstract, added 11/09/2010
Dynamics of population change in the Donetsk region. The main characteristics of possible directions of reproduction. The main reasons for the decline in population. Birth and death rates. Transformation of the sex and age structure.
control work, added 09/15/2013
Concept, essence and types of population reproduction. The current state of the reproduction of the population of Russia and its prospects. The number of urban and rural population in the regions. Total marriage, death, birth and divorce rates.
test, added 03/22/2015
Essence and types of population reproduction and its main indicators: total fertility rate, gross and net renewal rates. The length of generations, the true value of natural increase and the index of the duration of their coexistence.
control work, added 08/26/2010
The concept, socio-economic factors, types and most important characteristics of the process of population reproduction, its impact on the economy. Basic elements of population policy. The experience of Russia and foreign countries in solving the problems of the demographic crisis.
thesis, added 07/11/2014
The study of indicators of the movement and reproduction of the population. Analysis of the natural and mechanical (migration) movement of the population in Russia, including in the Chuvash Republic for 2010-2012. Measures to improve the demographic situation in the state.
term paper, added 02/21/2014
Definition of the concepts of population reproduction. Characteristics of the reproductive attitude in demography. Processes and indicators reflecting the quality of life of the population. Organization of regulation of socio-economic processes for demographic purposes.
term paper, added 07/13/2013
Characteristics of various types of population reproduction and their time frame. The origin of the demographic transition in European countries and the features of its course in Russia. The number and distribution, population density of Russia in different periods of history.
abstract, added 05/21/2009
The study of the subject and tasks of demography - the science of the types, methods and nature of population reproduction and the factors that determine and influence this process. Review of the structure of demographic science. Characteristics of the main categories of population reproduction.
POPULATION AND DYNAMICS
Demography(from Greek demos- people and grapho- I write) - the science of the patterns of population reproduction, which studies its size, natural growth, age and sex composition, etc.
The scientific theory of population considers the population participating in labor as the main productive force of society, the basis of all social production. Constantly interacting with nature (the geographical environment), the population plays an active role in its transformation. At the same time, the population also acts as the main consumer of all created material goods. That is why the population is one of the important factors in the development of each country, and of all mankind.
Table 1. Population of the planet since 1000
Table 2. Growth of world population in 1950-2001
| Year | Total, million people |
Annual growth, million people |
Year | Total, million people |
Annual growth, million people |
| 1950 | 2527 | 37 | 1981 | 4533 | 80 |
| 1955 | 2779 | 53 | 1982 | 4614 | 81 |
| 1960 | 3060 | 41 | 1983 | 4695 | 80 |
| 1965 | 3345 | 70 | 1984 | 4775 | 81 |
| 1966 | 3414 | 69 | 1985 | 4856 | 83 |
| 1967 | 3484 | 71 | 1986 | 4941 | 86 |
| 1968 | 3355 | 74 | 1987 | 5029 | 87 |
| 1969 | 3629 | 75 | 1988 | 5117 | 86 |
| 1970 | 3724 | 78 | 1989 | 5205 | 87 |
| 1971 | 3782 | 77 | 1990 | 5295 | 88 |
| 1972 | 3859 | 77 | 1991 | 5381 | 83 |
| 1973 | 3962 | 76 | 1992 | 5469 | 81 |
| 1974 | 4012 | 74 | 1993 | 5556 | 80 |
| 1975 | 4086 | 72 | 1994 | 5644 | 80 |
| 1976 | 4159 | 73 | 1995 | 5734 | 78 |
| 1977 | 4131 | 72 | 1996 | 5811 | 77 |
| 1978 | 4301 | 75 | 1997 | 5881 | 71 |
| 1979 | 4380 | 76 | 1998 | 5952 | 71 |
| 1980 | 4457 | 76 | 1999 | 6020 | 68 |
| 2000 | 6091 | 71 |
In 1987, the world population reached 5 million people, and already in 1999, on October 12, it exceeded 6 million people.
Table 3. World population by country groups.
Table 4. The share of certain groups of countries in the world population, world GDP and world exports of goods and services in 2000, in %
| world population | World GDP * | World export | |
| industrialized countries | 15,4 | 57,1 | 75,7 |
| G7 countries | 11,5 | 45,4 | 47,7 |
| EU | 6,2 | 20 | 36 |
| Developing countries | 77,9 | 37 | 20 |
| Africa | 12,3 | 3,2 | 2,1 |
| Asia | 57,1 | 25,5 | 13,4 |
| Latin America | 8,5 | 8,3 | 4,5 |
| Countries with economies in transition | 6,7 | 5,9 | 4,3 |
| CIS | 4,8 | 3,6 | 2,2 |
| CEE | 1,9 | 2,3 | 2,1 |
| Reference: | 6100 million people | 44550 billion dollars | $7650 billion |
| *According to purchasing power parity of currencies | |||
Table 5. Population of the largest countries of the world (million people).
| Country | Number of inhabitants in 1990, million people |
Country | Number of inhabitants in 2000, million people |
| China | 1120 | China | 1284 |
| India | 830 | India | 1010 |
| Soviet Union | 289 | USA | 281 |
| USA | 250 | Indonesia | 212 |
| Indonesia | 180 | Brazil | 170 |
| Brazil | 150 | Pakistan | 238,4 |
| Japan | 124 | Russia | 230,3 |
| Pakistan | 112 | Bangladesh | 196,1 |
| Bangladesh | 112 | Japan | 138,5 |
| Nigeria | 90 | Nigeria | 121,6 |
| Mexico | 86 | Mexico | 121,6 |
| Germany | 80 | Germany | 121,6 |
| Vietnam | 68 | Vietnam | 121,6 |
| Philippines | 60 | Philippines | 121,6 |
| Turkey | 59 | Iran | 121,6 |
| Italy | 58 | Egypt | 121,6 |
| Thailand | 58 | Turkey | 121,6 |
| Great Britain | 57 | Ethiopia | 121,6 |
| France | 56 | Thailand | 121,6 |
| Ukraine | 52 | France | 121,6 |
| Commentary to Table 21. At the beginning of the 21st century, Russia's population decreased to 144.1 million people. (data as of 10/01/2001), as a result of which she let Pakistan go ahead. | |||
Table 6. Forecast of the population of the Earth for 2025
| The whole world, regions |
Population, million people |
The whole world, regions |
Population, million people |
| The whole world | 7825 | Africa | 1300 |
| Economically developed country |
1215 | North America | 365 |
| developing | 6610 | Latin America | 695 |
| CIS | 290 | Australia | 40 |
| Foreign Europe | 505 | ||
| Overseas Asia | 4630 |
Table 7. Forecast of the number of inhabitants in the twenty largest countries by population in the world for 2025
| Country | Population, million people |
Country | Population, million people |
| China | 1490 | Japan | 120 |
| India | 1330 | Ethiopia | 115 |
| USA | 325 | Vietnam | 110 |
| Indonesia | 275 | Philippines | 110 |
| Pakistan | 265 | Congo | 105 |
| Brazil | 220 | Iran | 95 |
| Nigeria | 185 | Egypt | 95 |
| Bangladesh | 180 | Turkey | 88 |
| Russia | 138 | Germany | 80 |
| Mexico | 130 | Thailand | 73 |
GROWTH RATES
Population growth rate shows by what percentage the population has increased in the current year compared to some earlier period (most often the previous year, called the base year).
doubling time is the time it takes for the population to double.
Table 8. Growth rate (in %) and doubling time (in years) of the population.
| Period | Peace | Africa | Latin. America |
Sev. America |
Asia | Europe | Oceania | Former the USSR |
| 1965-1970 | 2,06 | 2,64 | 2,6 | 1,13 | 2,44 | 0,66 | 1,97 | 1,00 |
| 1980-1995 | 1,74 | 2,99 | 2,06 | 0,82 | 1,87 | 0,25 | 1,48 | 0,78 |
| 2020-2025 | 0,99 | 1,90 | 1,12 | 0,34 | 0,89 | 0,05 | 0,76 | 0,47 |
| Time doubling |
71 | 27 | 38 | 63 | 50 | 253 | 63 | 99 |
Minimum doubling time: Brunei (11), Qatar (13), UAE (13).
Maximum doubling time: Bulgaria, Ireland, Hungary (1000 each),
Belgium, Poland, Falkland Islands, Puerto Rico (693 each).
As can be seen from the table, in different regions of the world, the population today is growing differently: in some more slowly, in others - faster, and in others - very quickly. This is due to the different nature of its reproduction.
POPULATION REPRODUCTION
Reproduction (natural movement) of the population- a set of processes of fertility, mortality and natural increase, which ensures the continuous renewal and change of human generations. Or: the reproduction of the population is the process of generational change as a result of natural (growth) movement.
Key demographics
Absolute indicators:
- natural increase- the difference between the number of births and deaths;
- mechanical gain- the difference between the number of immigrants and emigrants.
Relative:
- fertility rate- the ratio of the total number of births in the country per year to the total population of the country, measured in thousands (i.e. the number of births per thousand inhabitants;
- death rate- the ratio of the total number of deaths in the country for the year to the population of the country, measured in thousands (ie, the number of deaths per thousand inhabitants);
- rate of natural increase is the difference between the birth rate and the death rate.
These ratios are measured in ppm (‰), but can be measured as percentages (%), i.e. calculations in this case are carried out per 100 inhabitants.
"Formula" of reproduction- type of record of relative demographic indicators: birth rate - death rate = rate of natural increase.
Table 9. Demographic indicators of reproduction at the beginning of the 90s (in ‰).
Birth rate, mortality rate, natural population growth are basically biological processes. But, nevertheless, the socio-economic conditions of people's lives, as well as the relationships between them in society and in the family, have a decisive influence on them.
The mortality rate depends, first of all, on the material conditions of people's lives: nutrition, sanitary and hygienic conditions of work and life, on the development of healthcare.
The birth rate also depends on the socio-economic structure of society, on the living conditions of people. But this dependence is much more complex and controversial, causing a lot of controversy in science. Most scientists attribute the decline in the birth rate to the growth of cities and the spread of the urban lifestyle, which leads to an increasing involvement of women in industrial and social activities, an increase in the duration of children's education and a general increase in the "price of a child". Developed pension provision also leads to a decrease in the birth rate, because. the role of the child as a "walking pension" is reduced to nothing. On the contrary, the rural way of life contributes to a high birth rate, because. in rural areas, a child already from 9-10 years old is extra labor hands. In poor countries, where the social sphere is poorly developed, the child is the main breadwinner for elderly parents. A high birth rate is also characteristic of Muslim countries, where the traditions of large families are supported by religion.
A very large negative impact on the reproduction of the population is exerted by wars, primarily world wars, which lead to huge human losses, both as a result of direct hostilities, and as a result of the spread of hunger and disease, and the breaking of family ties.
The growth of such unfavorable phenomena as crime, industrial injuries, natural and man-made disasters, accidents, environmental degradation leads to an increase in mortality.
TYPES OF POPULATION REPRODUCTION
In the most simplified form, we can speak of two types of population reproduction.
The first type of population reproduction. demographic crisis. The first type of population reproduction (synonyms: demographic "winter", modern or rational type of reproduction) is characterized by low birth rates, mortality rates and, accordingly, natural increase. It has become widespread primarily in economically developed countries, where the proportion of elderly and old people is growing all the time; this in itself lowers the birth rate and increases the death rate.
The decline in the birth rate in industrialized countries is usually associated with the spread of an urban lifestyle, in which children for parents turn out to be a "burden". In industrial production, the service sector requires highly qualified personnel. The consequence of this is the need for long-term studies, lasting up to 21-23 years. The decision to give birth to a second or third child is strongly influenced by a woman's high involvement in the labor process, her desire to make a career, to be financially independent.
But even among the countries of the first type of population reproduction, three subgroups can be distinguished.
First, these are countries with an average annual natural population growth of 0.5-1% (or 5-10 people per 1000 inhabitants, or 5-10‰). In such countries, examples of which are the United States, Canada, Australia, a fairly significant increase in population is ensured.
This requires that approximately half of all families have two children, and half - three. Two children over time "replace" their parents, and the third not only covers the loss from illnesses, accidents, etc. and "compensates" for the absence of offspring in the childless, but also provides a sufficient overall increase.
Secondly, these are countries with "zero" or close to it natural growth. Such an increase (for example, in Italy, Great Britain, Poland) no longer ensures an expanded reproduction of the population, which usually stabilizes at the achieved level.
Table 10 . European countries with negative natural population growth in 2000
|
Country |
Natural growth, %o |
Country |
Natural growth, %o |
|
Spain |
Sweden |
||
|
Switzerland |
Romania |
||
|
Greece |
Hungary |
||
|
Austria |
Estonia |
||
|
Italy |
Latvia |
||
|
Czech |
Belarus |
||
|
Slovenia |
Russia |
||
|
Lithuania |
Bulgaria |
||
|
Germany |
Ukraine |
Thirdly, these are countries with a negative natural increase, i.e., those where the death rate exceeds the birth rate. As a result, the number of their inhabitants not only does not grow, but even decreases. Demographers call this phenomenon depopulation(or demographic crisis).
It is most typical for Europe, where already a dozen countries (Belarus, Ukraine, Hungary, Bulgaria, Germany, etc.) have a negative natural increase. Recently, Russia has become one of these countries.
The transition from a large family characteristic of old Russia to a small family took place in our country during the period of the existence of the Soviet Union. But in the 90s. First of all, with the emergence of a deep socio-economic crisis, a real "collapse" of indicators of natural population growth began.
In the 90s. as a result of a sharp decline in the birth rate and an increase in mortality, the population of Russia should have decreased by several million people. And only thanks to the massive influx of migrants from other CIS countries and the Baltic countries, which more than compensated for this decline by more than 1/3, the population decline turned out to be not so large. The birth rate in Russia (less than 9 people per 1000 inhabitants) and in the late 90s. remains one of the lowest in the world.
So, in general, the economically developed countries of the world (average natural growth rate is 0.4‰) are characterized by the so-called "rational" or "modern" type of population reproduction, which basically corresponds to the urban image and high standard of living of their population. But this does not exclude the possibility that a number of European countries are experiencing a demographic crisis, which has a negative effect or may affect their development.
The second type of population reproduction. "Population explosion". The second type of population reproduction (synonyms: demographic "winter") is characterized by high and very high birth rates and natural increase and relatively low mortality rates. It is typical primarily for developing countries.
Table 11. Developing countries with the highest natural population growth in 1995-2000
|
Country |
Natural growth,%about |
Country |
Natural growth, %o |
|
Yemen |
Benin |
||
|
Somalia |
Ghana |
||
|
Niger |
Liberia |
||
|
Mali |
Mauritania |
||
|
DR Congo |
Pakistan |
Tasks: 9 Tests: 1 |