Foresight method in working with counselors. Think about the future with "foresight". Possible bar sequence

Foresight is a system of methods for expert evaluation of strategic areas of socio-economic and innovative development, identifying technological breakthroughs that can have an impact on the economy and society in the medium and long term.

Peer assessments are the basis for evaluating options for the future. The Foresight methodology has incorporated dozens of traditional and fairly new expert methods. At the same time, they are constantly improved, methods and procedures are being developed, which ensures an increase in the validity of foresight of the prospects for scientific, technical and socio-economic development. The main vector of methodology development is aimed at more active and purposeful use of the knowledge of experts participating in projects. Typically, each foresight project uses a combination of different methods, including expert panels, Delphi (two-stage expert surveys), SWOT analysis, brainstorming, scenario building, technology roadmaps, relevance trees, cross-impact analysis, etc. To take into account all possible options and get a complete picture, as a rule, a significant number of experts are involved. Thus, more than 2,000 experts participate in the Japanese long-term forecasts of scientific and technological development, carried out every five years, representing all the most important areas of development of science, technology and technology, and more than 10,000 experts participated in the latest Korean project.

Foresight is focused not only on identifying possible alternatives, but also on choosing the most preferred ones.

During the selection process, various criteria are applied to determine the most preferred options. So, for example, when choosing critical technologies, the criterion of achieving maximum economic growth can be used, and when building a technology roadmap for an industry, identifying potential market niches and choosing technologies that allow developing competitive products for emerging markets as quickly as possible. The choice of a development strategy is made on the basis of a sequence of extensive expert consultations, which makes it possible to foresee the most unexpected ways of development of events and possible "pitfalls".

Foresight proceeds from the fact that the onset of the “desirable” future option largely depends on the actions taken today, so the choice of options is accompanied by the development of measures that ensure the optimal trajectory of innovative development.

Most Foresight projects include the development of science and technology as a central component. Usually, these issues become the subject of discussion not only for scientists, but also for politicians, businessmen, and practitioners from various sectors of the economy. The result of such discussions is the emergence of new ideas related to the improvement of science management mechanisms, the integration of science, education and industry, and, ultimately, the increase in the competitiveness of a country, industry or region. In addition, the very organization of systematic attempts to “look into the future” leads to the formation of a higher management culture and, as a result, to the formation of a more sound science, technology and innovation policy.

Foresight projects are focused not only on obtaining new knowledge in the form of reports, a set of scenarios, recommendations, etc. An important result is the development of informal relationships between their participants, the creation of a common understanding of the situation.

In a number of projects, the formation of horizontal networks, platforms within which scientists and businessmen, university professors and officials, specialists in related fields can systematically discuss common problems, is considered as one of the main effects.

Foresight is organized as a systematic process that must be carefully planned and organized. As a rule, Foresight projects are carried out quite regularly, sometimes according to a repeating pattern (similar to the Japanese long-term forecast, which has been carried out every 5 years since 1971), in other cases, studies are carried out as a sequence of interrelated projects aimed at solving a set of interrelated tasks and forming a coherent vision of the long-term prospects for the development of technology, innovation and society.

Foresight is a much more comprehensive approach than traditional forecasting.

First, forecasts, as a rule, are formed by a narrow circle of experts and in most cases are associated with predictions of little-controlled events (forecasts of stock prices, weather, sports results, etc.). As part of the foresight, we are talking about assessing the possible prospects for innovative development associated with the progress of science and technology, outlines the possible technological horizons that can be achieved by investing certain funds and organizing systematic work, as well as the likely effects on the economy and society.

Secondly, Foresight always involves the participation (often through intensive mutual discussions) of many experts from all fields of activity, to some extent related to the subject of a particular foresight project, and sometimes surveys of certain groups of the population (residents of the region, youth and etc.) directly interested in solving the problems discussed within the framework of the project.

The third main difference between Foresight and traditional forecasts is the focus on developing practical measures to approximate the chosen strategic benchmarks.

General Director of the InterVolga Internet Agency ">

Stepan Ovchinnikov,
General Director of the InterVolga Internet Agency

I ordered a strategic session in order to form a common understanding of the horizon, a vision of goals and priorities among the team, to generate a pool of ideas for specific steps in 2018.

I had a general understanding of the company's movement, but only I had and only a general one. It required immersion of people and elaboration of details, setting priorities.

The host of the session was chosen according to the reviews of familiar companies, according to the sites. I talked to every "potential" organizer.

Dmitry liked his good understanding of IT specifics, high intelligence, practical experience, and a “different” outlook. It is important that the consultant be “about the topic”, but “read other books”.

The work began with preliminary preparation: a series of skype sessions and "zero day". The idea with “strategic projects” came out great and formed the essence of the annual plan.

As I expected, the session is a serious stress for the team, it's not fun, it's work. She gave both short-term and delayed effects.

Personally, I got a lot of new ideas not directly related to the strategy. Received a number of advice and contacts. Thinking about reforms for the next few years.

The team gained experience in comprehending the work of the company as a whole, in dialogue, and in the formation of projects. We generated 8 project ideas, selected 4 priority projects, and started working on the 6th. It is perfectly.

It is important that without Dmitry's team, the strategy would have been different - I would not have reached many things myself. Already recommended Dmitry - twice on FB and at least twice in personal conversations.

Svetlana Beregulina
Marketing Director at 1C-Bitrix

1C-Bitrix twice invited the System Approach company to organize and conduct sessions on product strategy development.

The creative process turned out to be more structured, as a result we received not only new ideas for the development of products, but also an assessment of their viability, we were able to set priorities correctly.

Most of the opportunities proposed at the strategic session were implemented within two years. During this time, our products and services have become even more popular on the market, including the result of a correct product strategy.

Foresight session

"Camp of the Future"

Target: creating a desired image of the future and defining strategies to achieve it.

Tasks:

Formation of a single "field of ideas" of session participants about current trends and future events.

Drawing up by the participants of the session a "map of the Camp of the Future", describing the main possible events that will affect the achievement of the desired goals.

Coordination by the participants of the session of their positions regarding the significant factors influencing the achievement of the set goals.

Formation of the road map "Camp of the Future".

Necessary materials : board or flipchart (magnetic whiteboard), flipchart paper, colored markers, whatman paper for each small group, a set of stickers.

Moderator: facilitator ensures successful group communication, compliance with the rules of the meeting, its procedures, regulations

The target audience: participants are children aged 11 to 17 who are the “customers” of DOL development strategies, since the strategies should be focused primarily on the needs of future generations (10 people).

Session time: 3 days

Foresight session is a project session on developing a vision for the future and generating ideas.

The project session is held over three days. The project session includes 3 stages of work:

– designing the "Camp of the Future" image;

– formation of project ideas;

– development of project parameters and roadmaps.

Introduction

Leading:

pronounces and prescribes (on a flipchart or on a presentation slide) the purpose and main objectives of the session, the route of work, the main results that should be obtained in the course of group activities;

announces the rules of work;

establishes the rules of group interaction.

Next, the facilitator gives the participants a definition of foresight, discusses the concept of a trend with them (see Appendix"Basic Foresight Units" ), holds a small discussion about what they have to do. The participants are given the installation that the future is not predetermined, its foundation is laid by our present actions and decisions.

main stage

Task number 1.

The team of participants is divided into several small groups. Brainstorming is held in small groups on the topic of finding current trends in a wellness campaign. The groups also determine which trends need to be supported to form successful recreation and health improvement in children's camps, and which trends interfere with the development and improvement of the individual and society as a whole. Each selected trend is written on a sticker, then it is glued to a flipchart.

Task number 2.

The groups are given the task, taking into account the previously identified positive trends, to model and draw their image of the "Camp of the Future", as they see it at certain intervals (near, middle, far horizons). “Draw the future of your camp.” Within the framework of this approach, it is proposed to answer the questions:

– how they see their city in 15–20 years;

– where they see themselves in this camp: what they do, where they live. Before starting this task, it is recommended to discuss several groups of questions with the participants of the foresight session: - what is DOL;

What are its main characteristics; - how DOL developed in the past, what factors determined their development; - what is important for teenagers in modern DOL; - what will be the DOL in the future.

You can invite the group to imagine the future metaphorically using the exercise “I woke up in the morningin DOL and ended up in 2035. The exercise will expand the horizon of perception of the world, learn to formulate goals more clearly and consciously.

You can imagine your successful future in the form of wishes pasted on paper. At the same time, it is important to agree on exactly what types of social activity should be in this DOL (leisure, socialization, sports ...), so that each group comes up with how they will be implemented in their "Camp of the Future".

Task number 3.

After completing the Camp of the Future modeling work, the groups are asked to develop a roadmap.

At this stage of work, it is important to correlate the desired image of the future with the current situation in the DOL and answer the question: are all needs, leisure and pastime formats realized in the camp. Also, as part of this stage, it is necessary to discuss what can be done today (the nearest horizon) so that new sites and activities appear in the city that will bring the desired image of the future closer. From the comparison of the current situation and the requirements for DOL, formulated at the previous stage, strategies and ideas for future projects should appear.

Roadmap Example (trends and main events are written on stickers).

Trends

technologies, formats

recovery

- psycholoG

TRIZ pedagogy methods

- Yarnbombing

- Wi- fi

- relaxation room

- swimming pool

- outdoor cafe

- individual menu

- Bookcrossing

- buffet

- work out

- health trail

- organization of forest recreation areas

- Fock construction

- rooftop stadium

- cycle tracks

- variety of sports sections

- modernization of simulators

- computer room

- circle of robotics

- quests

- leader school

- planetarium

- new forms of space for creativity (co-working spaces, hackspaces, fablabs))

- interactive library

Digital gallery

- demonstration,

simulation, laboratory, modeling technologies, simulators

- automation

- daily health diagnostics, with recommendations for its prevention

- creation of trumps

- cognitive assistants (a system of adaptive support for a child during rest)

- gamification

- enclosures in the "Smart Home" format

- energy of the future

- mobile camp (changing its spatial location)

- simulator programs

leisure

sport

Socialization

Creation

culture

education

innovation

middle 2019-2021

middle

2022-2025

further

2026-2036

horizons

At the end of the session, participants will present their projects.

Conclusion

Reflection: at the last stage, the group, with the support of the facilitator, comprehends the foresight session:

denotes the results: “What have we achieved after all?”;

decides on the strategies developed at the session;

gives an assessment of joint work during the session and draws conclusions for the future.

The participants went through all three stages: they created an image of the future, drew a map of scenarios and agreed on ways to achieve it. the result is a vision of the future and social projects aimed at achieving the selected strategic development priorities. At the same time, the developed projects are not a “order” for the activities of adults, but independent initiatives of the teams participating in the foresight.

A foresight session can lay a qualitative foundation for organizing work on professional and personal support for students.

Appendix. Basic foresight units: Foresight - it is a technology (session) of long-term forecasting, a way to build a consistent, balanced and responsible image of the future,it is the joint work of the participants on the time map. This work is not with texts, but with images and diagrams.
Authors and participants do not just assess probabilities and risks, but design their activities. The result of the foresight is the "Map of the Future".Road map – a visual image of a joint future, including key development trends, trends, events, technologies, strategic forks and decision pointsTrend - basic unit of foresight. These are external stable trends, an important, noticeable direction in the development of something.Trend examples:The share of social design in education has increased. There is an outflow of activity of children in social networks.Technology - a set of methods, processes and materials used in any branch of activity, as well as a scientific description of the methods of technical production. Technology example: social engineeringFormat- way of building and presenting, the form of holding any event, eventFormat example:Seminar on Social DesignOratory Development TrainingDevelopments What takes place, happens, occurs at a point in space-time; a significant incident, phenomenon or other activity as a fact of public or private life.

Event example: social design festival, competition "Counselor and his team"

A threat- possible danger. Threat example: lack of funding for social engineering

Unrecognized, unlikely, but at the same time interesting technologies are sent to the field"black swans".

Foresight session "School of the Future" Education of the future is one of the most interesting and actively discussed topics.

The best minds of today are making predictions and leading discussions about what the education of the next generations should be like. How to implement blended learning? Will education become continuous throughout life? Without which technologies it will be impossible to imagine the school of the future? What will the growing popularity of homeschooling lead to?

Experts give their weighty conclusions to all these questions.

The task of the foresight session "School of the Future" is to go down a "coil" lower, to the end consumers and enter into an active dialogue with those who today are directly related to the school.

For the first time, school teachers, students and parents are invited to the discussion at the same time. What image of the future will they support? Will their opinion coincide with the experts? What's new in the joint discussion?

Foresight session will allow:

Teachers - to indicate their position on reforms and become agents of change in the education of the future.

Parents - to talk about the experience of interaction with schools, find their areas of influence and responsibility in the process of transformation and establish cooperation between the school and parents in the future.

And most importantly, the foresight session as a group event will allow for a full-fledged dialogue between parents, children and teachers. Having created a coherent picture of the future, participants will discover a new vision of the situation, new opportunities and ways to implement them.

The foresight session will be held on November 9 and 10 (attendance within 2 days is obligatory) from 15:00 to 18:00 at the address: Khoroshevskoye shosse 21 (the building of GBOU School No. 1288)

Chief moderator of the foresight session- Elena Ivanchuk

Organizers:

All-Russian project "Generation 2084" https://www.facebook.com/groups/pokolenie2084

Center "StartUp in life" (project of the School of New Technologies and School No. 1288)

Contact details:

Olga Kuvaeva (curator of the StartUp to Life center, +7 985 224 01 43, )

Ivanchuk Elena (head of the all-Russian project "Generation 2084")

The Generation 2084 project started in February 2016. It is based on a new competitive methodology.

System of exponential development of applied knowledge
Personnel export
Leading positions in the world rankings of educational institutions
Implementation of a system of continuing professional education

Promotion of the professions of the future
Early professional self-identification of preschoolers and schoolchildren
Implementation of a project-based learning system
Culture of succession of generations
Development of the mentoring system
Ability to work and develop in a team
Creation of a favorable environment for interaction between youth and future employers

Group for members

The modern education system makes it a priority to educate successful people who are ready to make a choice, to make independent, constructive decisions. Planning life and professional prospects, choosing value priorities cause difficulties for students of educational organizations. The narrow and undeveloped perspective of professional and personal development dooms them to a limited range of life manifestations, while interest in the professional future as a field of self-realization disappears.

To make an optimal choice in a situation of professional self-determination, a person needs to have the skills to form a time perspective of life, to model a picture in the future. The time perspective of the future is a mental projection of the semantic sphere of a person, which combines aspirations, fears, hopes and plans. In order to have a substantive conversation about the future, various tools for collective forecasting and design have been developed and are increasingly being used, one of which is foresight.

Foresight is a technology for working with images of the future. Foresight assumes that there are many possible futures, and that the future that actually occurs depends largely on the actions taken today. Thus, foresight requires a conscious, "active" attitude towards the future and the recognition that the choices made today can shape or even create a picture of tomorrow. Foresight methods can be perceived as a kind of accelerators of consciousness. How breakthrough ideas turn out to be depends on the initial creative potential of the team and its individual members, on their ability to creatively use the proposed exercises.

A foresight session can become an open design workshop for students to realize the most relevant and environmentally friendly direction in the development of their lives, create the basis for making effective decisions, the emergence of fresh, easy-to-implement ideas, a boost of energy and confidence in the future. It differs significantly from the "global" foresights, is purely applied in nature, and its duration is from 2 to 4 hours.

The task of the session participants is not just to create an image of their future, but also to develop a "road map", a kind of strategic navigator that will help to quickly lay a route on the way to the set goals.

During the session, IMPORTANT:

Use the energy of the team's positive thinking when a joint project is a visualization of the desired future (the team initially tunes in to "plus");

Effectively and in the correct sequence to combine the stages of creative and analytical thinking.

Foresight session model

An example of a foresight session "Effective technologies for success"

Goal: creating a desired image of the future and defining strategies to achieve it. Tasks:

Formation of a single "field of ideas" of session participants about current trends and future events. Drawing up by the participants of the session a "map of the future", describing the main possible events that will affect the achievement of the desired goals. Coordination by the participants of the session of their positions regarding the significant factors influencing the achievement of the set goals. Formation of a "road map" for a successful future.

Materials needed: board or flipchart, flipchart paper, colored markers, drawing paper for each small group, a set of stickers.

Moderator (facilitator): educational psychologist, social pedagogue, curator, tutor.

Target audience: 15-25 people.

Session time: 2-4 hours

Introduction

Next, the facilitator gives the participants a definition of foresight, discusses the concept of a trend1 with them, and holds a short discussion on the topic of what success, a successful person, and a successful future are. The participants are given the installation that the future is not predetermined, its foundation is laid by our present actions and decisions.

Task number 1.

The team of participants is divided into several small groups. Brainstorming is conducted in small groups on the topic of searching for current trends in modern society. The groups also determine which trends need to be supported to form success in various areas of society and their lives, and which trends interfere with the development and improvement of the individual and society as a whole. Each selected trend is written on a sticker, then it is glued to a flipchart.

Task number 2.

The groups are given the task, taking into account the previously identified positive trends, to model and draw their own image of a successful future, as they see it in five years.

You can invite the group to imagine the future metaphorically using the “Map of a Successful Future” exercise. The exercise will allow you to increase the level of your potential, expand the horizon of your worldview, learn to formulate goals more clearly and consciously.

Exercise "Map of the Future".2

Map out your successful future. Designate your global goals as points in the area where you would like to be. Designate also intermediate big and small goals on the way to them. Think of and write names for the “goal points” you strive for in your personal and professional life. Draw also the streets and roads that you will walk on.

How will you get to your goals? The shortest or workaround?

What obstacles do you have to overcome?

What help can you expect?

What areas will you have to cross on your way: flowering and fertile lands, deserts, deaf and abandoned places?

Will you make roads and trails alone or with someone?

You can imagine your successful future in the form of wishes-drawings pasted on whatman paper, cut out from magazines.

Task number 3.

After completing the modeling of a successful future, the groups are invited to develop personalities for 5 years and include the main activities in the roadmap.

An example of a roadmap (trends and main events are written on stickers).

At the end of the session, participants need to present their projects.

Conclusion

At the last stage, the group, with the support of the facilitator:

denotes results (“What have we achieved after all?”); decides on the strategies developed at the session; gives an assessment of joint work during the session and draws conclusions for the future.

A foresight session is considered successful if the participants have gone through all three stages: they have created an image of the future, drawn a map of scenarios, and agreed on ways to achieve it. If it is not possible to work out all three positions in one session, then the facilitator conducts several cycles of foresight sessions with the group.

A foresight session can lay a qualitative foundation for organizing work on professional and personal support for students. By reviewing and analyzing the activities of the road map, teachers can actively engage in joint work with students, offering them cooperation and support. It is possible to conduct trainings, seminars, organization of various projects.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

"Theory and Methods" http://lit. lib. ru/t/trushnikow_d_j/indexdate. shtml "Generation of Breakthrough Wear". — M.: MANN, IVANOV AND FERBER, 2015.

1 Trend - trend; an important, noticeable direction in the development of something.

2 http://trainerskaya. en/article/view/uprazhneniya-pro-celi