What jobs will robots replace in the future? Inevitably: how robots will replace humans (and create new jobs for them). Sellers and cashiers
A recent study conducted by scientists at Oxford University showed that some professions that are in demand in our time will no longer be relevant in the coming decades, because all the functions of specialists will be performed by robots. We will talk about 10 professions that will soon be unnecessary.
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10. Maintenance staff
Service staff will be made up of robots in 10-20 years
It is in the service sector that robots will first come to replace people. There is nothing to be surprised here - they are more reliable, faster, stronger. Robots don't need to be paid, they don't make mistakes due to inattention and will not be able, because of a bad mood, to be rude to a client who seems to them too picky.
Already today, part of the customer service systems is automated. In any major city, you can find ATMs, terminals for paying for various services, food vending machines, self-service checkouts, and automated parking lots. In the last 2 years, even libraries have started laying off their employees and replacing them with robots. So far, this trend has not gained a mass character, but there is no doubt that this is a matter of time.
And what a marvelous invention electronic queues have been that have saved people from constant arguments about who is in front of whom, isn't it?
This is interesting: American retail giant Wal-Mart Stores is building a fully automated warehouse. It is planned to start functioning in 2016.
9. Waiters
Robot waiters will replace people
Restaurants are already open in the world, on the tables in which tablets are installed that take orders from visitors. Waiters just bring dishes to the right table. And in one of the Chinese restaurants, robots are already doing even this today, so there is not a single waiter there.
There is no doubt that in a decade, most catering establishments will prefer robots to manpower. Most likely, by that time they will have learned not only to take orders and bring dishes, but even put them on the tables. By the way, after that, chefs will gradually be replaced with robots. Processing products, mixing ingredients in the right proportions and performing other manipulations is not difficult for them. This will help maintain the quality of cooking at a consistently high level, which customers will only be happy about.
8. Support specialists
Robots in the support service will answer any questions from customers
Calling the support service, we increasingly hear the voice of an answering machine on the other end of the line. If you are interested in one question, they offer to press the "1" button, if another - the "2" button, and so on. Until needed it comes to contacting the operator only in rare cases, because most often an automated answering machine is able to give an exhaustive answer to a question of interest to a person.
Worth mentioning and online consultations on internet services. Robots were taught to form responses by analyzing the text of the message. For example, if you ask the bank support service a question online about how to unblock a credit card, the system will automatically generate and display the necessary information. If the question is not clear, you will be prompted to select the desired section of reference information by clicking on one of the options.
In the future, such automated systems will appear in almost every office, and it will be very convenient to conduct a dialogue with robots. Perhaps scientists will bring it closer to the level of ordinary human communication. To do this, it is enough to train robots to recognize and analyze human speech. Artificial intelligence systems have already been invented that have approached this bar at arm's length - remember at least the Sirie online assistant on the iPhone.
7. Real estate agents
Real estate agents will soon become redundant
According to authoritative experts, the work of real estate agents will also begin to be performed by robots in the near future. Moreover, the agent will be a regular program installed on your smartphone.
This is interesting: And in 10-15 years, even the presence of a human agent will no longer be mandatory when inspecting real estate. The program will independently answer your questions, and if necessary, even open the locked door of the inspected room. You just need to install a lock on it, which opens automatically when it receives a signal sent via the Internet.
6. Journalists
Journalists will be supplanted by programs with artificial intelligence
Even such a creative profession as a journalist can become unclaimed. Analysts predict that in 15 years, 9 out of 10 news articles will be generated automatically by computers. Forbes magazine is already using robot journalists to create and review its annual reports, and at the Big Ten Network, robots quickly write and publish the latest sports news.
Most copywriters will also have to look for a new job after 2020. Experts are confident that functional programs with artificial intelligence connected to databases with textual materials (laws, works of art, scientific literature) will be able to generate articles in some genres without human intervention. Prototypes of such programs - synonymizers, exist today, but only the quality of the text they create leaves much to be desired.
5. Pharmacists
Robotic pharmacists will produce medicines
The University of San Francisco Medical Center has an experimental robot that creates new drugs.
The day is approaching when leading companies will begin to commercialize pharmaceutical robots. Efficiency and performance performance of machines is ten times higher than similar human indicators. Robots never get tired or make mistakes due to carelessness. It's understandable why big billion-dollar pharmaceutical companies see only advantages in replacing people with machines. Therefore, pharmacists will be one of the first to be replaced by robots. This is expected to happen by 2020.
4. Drivers
Robots will replace drivers on the roads
Following Google, other giants of the automotive industry have taken up the development of their automatic vehicle control systems. As soon as two or three of them develop an accessible and easy-to-implement concept, the process of total mechanization will begin in this area. And our children will learn about the profession of a driver only from old films and adult stories.
In 2014, experts tested up to 10 cars that can do without drivers. So, a car from Google Corporation drove over 1 million kilometers along busy US highways without ever getting into an accident. In Australia, 45 "unmanned" vehicles are now being tested.
Only benefits can be seen in replacing drivers with automated systems. Firstly, they do not get tired and can work without interruption 24 hours a day. Secondly, the elimination of the human factor will help to reduce the number of accidents on the roads by tens or even hundreds of times and, therefore, save millions of lives.
3. Soldiers
Robot soldiers will reduce the number of victims
The military industry is developing by leaps and bounds. Combat systems are constantly being upgraded, regularly surprising us with technological innovations. And the military is increasingly using robots. Unmanned aerial vehicles, remote-controlled anti-aircraft systems, mine-clearing robots and other machines are widely used.
The speed of robotization of the armies of the leading countries will only grow. And this is good news. History shows that people cannot live without conflicts, but robots will at least reduce the number of victims. Another argument in favor of machines is that they will not get tired, will not make mistakes and will not go over to the side of the enemy. And tirelessness makes them ideal soldiers.
2. Teachers
Robot teachers will teach in schools
Teaching is one of the most honored professions today. But in 10–20 years, pedagogical universities may be closed. for uselessness. Researchers are constantly working to create intelligent machines that can teach people about specific disciplines. Robots are also taught to interact with people, to conduct a natural dialogue. This helps students understand the material better.
This is interesting: In South Korea, the government approved the implementation program robot teachers to educational process. A machine called Engkey is already teaching children the basics of math, science, grammar and other sciences. Of course, while not everything is perfect for him, but scientists are constantly upgrading the robot. And the company that created Engkey has already received hundreds of orders for similar machines.
1. Doctors
Robotic doctors will perform complex operations
Can you imagine a future without doctors? If not, it's time to start getting used to such a thought. Medicine is developing rapidly, and the gradual robotization of this profession is already gaining momentum. In the last 5 years, thousands of complex operations have been performed by robots that could not be trusted to living people. Machines are more accurate and faster than humans.
Leading clinics practice "remote" operations, in which the surgeon controls the actions of the robot, being in another corner of the globe.
In the near future, any operations will be performed by robots. They will also see patients, diagnose them, vaccinate them and keep medical records.
Total robotization of dozens of areas, according to experts, will occur in the next 15 years. There is no doubt that this will greatly improve the quality of our lives. It will be bad only for people who are forced to learn a new profession and look for another job.
Researchers and futurologists are divided over whether robots in the future can become a real threat to many professionals in one field or another. Some of them believe that this cannot happen in principle, while others agree that there are a number of professions in which robots can replace humans in the coming decades. Surely no one can know this, it remains only to wait and believe that in twenty years you will not be left without a job.
In 2013, scientists from the University of Oxford conducted one interesting study on this topic. More than 700 professions were selected for the experiment. For each of them, the minimum requirements for three indicators were determined: orientation in the surrounding world, creativity and intelligence. As a result, all professions were divided into two categories: those that, with a probability of more than 80%, can be successfully replaced by robots, and those that certainly cannot be mastered by machines. The second category included the professions of a scientist, engineer, actor, manager, teacher, doctor, social worker and lawyer. The list of "dangerous" professions turned out to be much wider.
Service staff
The services sector is most under threat. There is nothing surprising here. Robots are more reliable, tougher and stronger. They do not have to pay a salary, they are less likely to make mistakes, and they are not subject to emotional swings. Already today, a significant part of customer service services will be performed by robots, albeit not in the way that most people imagine them to be. In any major city, you can find terminals, food vending machines, automated parking lots and cash desks. Imagine how much money could be saved on the work of waiters, maids, concierges or operators. For example, in the past few years, libraries have begun to fire employees and replace them with robots, and in China there is already a fully automated restaurant. Of course, while this trend is not widespread, but still it exists, and who knows what may happen in the near future.
Drivers
In recent years, many giants of the automotive industry have been working on the development of advanced unmanned vehicles. There is already a lot of progress in this area, take Google and Tesla cars. There are many advantages to automating vehicle management. Firstly, such systems will be able to work without interruption 24 hours a day, and secondly, they will help to eliminate the human factor, which is the cause of thousands of accidents and lost lives.
Sure, self-driving cars are great, but the problem is that millions of drivers around the world could lose their jobs. And it's not just about car drivers. Unmanned ships and aircraft are known to have been successfully tested. Of course, in these cases, it will be much more difficult for the technique to take into account all the factors that affect safe control. So, the professions of pilots and navigators are still out of the risk zone.
Support Specialists
Most often, when calling the technical support service, we hear the voice of an answering machine that makes programmed consultations. This helps save a lot of time and resources. The need to contact the operator is extremely rare, because the program is able to independently give comprehensive answers to the most popular questions.
This includes online consultations in various services and online stores. The new robots are algorithms capable of generating responses by analyzing the text of a message. In the future, such systems may appear in most offices. Scientists will be able to bring the dialogue with the robot closer to the usual human communication. To do this, it is enough to teach the system to recognize and analyze human speech with high accuracy.
Factory workers
Recently, in the Chinese industrial city of Dongguan, the government launched an experiment called "Robot Replaces Humans." 4.2 billion yuan was invested in 505 Dongguan factories to replace 30,000 workers with robots.
In July last year, the People Daily published information about the success of the Chinese company Changying Precision Technology. At one of its factories, 650 employees were replaced by 60 robots. As a result, machines produced three times more parts in a month than highly skilled workers. Moreover, the work was done better, and the percentage of defects was reduced by 20 units. Today, the plant employs only 60 employees, and by 2018 the staff is planned to be reduced to 20 people altogether. If the Dongguan experiment ends successfully, then, most likely, widespread robotization of production processes will begin, and millions of Chinese workers will be fired.
Sellers and cashiers
The sales assistant profession is also under threat. Recently, the Japanese company SoftBank created the Pepper robot, which is able to perceive human emotions and speech. Already in March 2016, in one of the hardware stores, it is planned to replace all salespeople with robots that will independently advise and sell equipment. People will only help the robot in signing the contract, which Pepper is not yet able to do on its own.
As for cashiers, here the situation is even more deplorable. According to statistics, robots will be able to replace them by 97%. Machines will be able to do simple mechanical work much faster and for longer. Now this trend is already beginning to gain momentum, especially in Western countries.
Robot cashier in a South Korean cinema
Journalists
It is hard to believe that such a creative profession as a journalist can also be unclaimed. The advent of the Internet has destroyed numerous newspapers and publications. Analysts predict that in ten years, 90% of all news articles will be generated automatically. Forbes magazine is already using robotic journalists to produce its annual reports, and Big Ten has long been using machines to write sports news.
In the near future, the services of copywriters may also remain irrelevant. Experts are confident that functional algorithms with artificial intelligence, which will also be synchronized with various text sources, will be able to independently generate articles in various genres.
Ecology of knowledge. Robots. Oxford University researchers admit the estimates aren't entirely accurate, but they believe it's a picture of what the future might look like. According to the database, 14 out of 20 jobs are at risk of being automated.
So what kind of work is still difficult for robots? Any that requires intelligence, communication and constant interaction with people. What is the easiest position for a robot to fill? Telemarketer, and it's already being done.
Ability to automate: 0.3%
Occupational therapists help people improve their ability to perform tasks in daily life and work environments. They work with people in conditions that are mentally, physically or emotionally disabled. This profession also requires human interaction.
DENTIST
Dentists are difficult to replace as they need to be smart and savvy in various aspects of the job and able to communicate with patients.
SURGEON
Ability to automate: 0.4%
Of course, there are surgical assistant robots, but the work of a surgeon is pretty well protected from automation, according to the University of Oxford. There are many legal issues that can arise from entrusting a patient's life to a medical robot that can fail and make the wrong decision.
MAXILLOFACIAL SURGEON
Ability to automate: 0.4%
Again, there are skills in healthcare that robots simply cannot replicate: the ability to handle the sick, the need to make difficult decisions based on incomplete patient data, deal with human psychology, etc.
NUTRITIONIST
Ability to automate: 0.4%
Some occupations in healthcare that are currently being automated include nutritionists, assistants and pharmacists.
PRIMARY SCHOOL TEACHER
Ability to automate: 0.4%
It is unlikely that a computer will be able to understand the nuances of music, art and literature, let alone teach people to do this.
SCHOOL PSYCHOLOGIST
Psychology is a profession where human involvement is preferred, especially in schools. Working with robots cannot calm, which is why psychologists are safe.
MEDICAL SCIENTIST
Ability to automate: 0.5%
The goal of a medical researcher is to discover new methods for improving human health. This requires conducting clinical trials, interviewing patients and reviewing their medical records.
COMPUTER SYSTEMS ANALYST
Ability to automate: 0.6%
This work requires constant collaboration with others and is therefore nearly impossible for robots to perform. And computer systems analysts tailor technology needs to available companies so the job is never monotonous.
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This is inevitable: robots are taking a huge place in our lives and are getting smarter and more developed, which means that soon some of us will be out of work.
“Machines are starting to do low-skill jobs, and people have more time to develop creativity, which defines the boundary between mind and machine,” the report says. “And it’s about whether people will move on or the machines will simply force them out.”
Ian Pearson, a fellow at the International Academy of Arts and Sciences, says people's ability to think creatively can protect certain segments of the profession. Below are 3 professions where robots will never replace humans.
Human teachers are indispensable because robots will never be able to understand children.
“Of course, you can say that teachers are no longer needed, because through the Internet you can find any information. But it's not. Robots will never be able to understand children. And they will not be able to explain where children come from, because they themselves do not have such experience, - Pearson explains. “On an emotional level, a human will understand another human much better than a robot.”
Despite the fact that robots in the field of defense are increasingly used (for example, drones), they will not be able to replace policemen in the near future.
It is said that human judgment will always be an important factor in the police, and it cannot be programmed.
“Most of us wouldn't want to date Robocops. To judge people, we would rather prefer a human to a robot, on the grounds that we would not want a robot to judge the presence of a crime and immediately start shooting, ”says Pearson.
People who work in management, especially those who deal with personality and motivation, are also safe.
“This is human work. I can't imagine people following R2D2 as a motivation,” he says.
Pearson's main idea is that robots perform some tasks easily - for example, searching for data and information, while people do things that are beyond the control of robots.
“You spend more time with colleagues, in meetings, emotionally analyzing and persuading other people. These human abilities become more important the less important information skills become,” says Pearson.
What if your profession is not on this list?
Dont be upset. The likelihood that in most professions in various fields, including manufacturing, people will be completely replaced by smart machines is not 100%.
The Merrill Lynch report says that in countries like South Korea and Germany, which are respectively the first and third countries in terms of the number of robots, the increase in unemployment in the manufacturing industry is less than in less automated countries such as the United States.
This means that even in those areas in which there is a high probability of replacing people with robots, this will happen.
But even then, according to Merrill Lynch's report, there will be another 3.5 million jobs.