Features of the demographic situation in developed countries. Demographic problem and population explosion

The economically developed countries of the world, as already noted, have long passed the second phase of the demographic transition and entered its third phase, which is characterized by a decrease in natural population growth rates. Until recently, there were almost no very significant differences in this regard between them. However, recently, quite strong differentiation has also begun to occur in this group of countries, and now it can also be divided into three subgroups.
The first subgroup includes countries where a fairly favorable demographic situation still exists, characterized by at least average fertility and natural increase rates, ensuring expanded population reproduction. An example of a country of this kind is the United States, where the reproduction “formula” (fertility - mortality = natural increase) in 2005 remained at the level of 14.1% - 8.2% = 5.2%. Accordingly, the average annual population growth was 1%. This subgroup also includes Canada, France, the Netherlands, and Norway, where the average annual population growth was at least 0.3–0.5%. At this rate of growth, population doubling in these countries can be expected in 100–200 years.
The second subgroup includes countries in which, in fact, expanded reproduction of the population is no longer ensured. These include mainly European countries, for which the total fertility rate in the mid-1990s. decreased to 1.5. Some of these countries still have a minimal excess of birth rates over deaths. Others, of which there are many more, have become countries with “zero” population growth. This is, for example, Sweden.
Finally, the third subgroup unites countries with negative natural population growth, or, more simply, with its natural decline (depopulation).
Table 40

The total fertility rate in this group of countries is also extremely low. The number of such countries with “minus” population growth only in 1990–2000. increased from 3 to 15. In 2005, there were 15 of them left, but the composition changed somewhat (Table 40).
It would not be a mistake to say that the countries of the third (and in fact the second) subgroup have already entered a period of demographic crisis, which was brought to life by a complex of interrelated reasons. First of all, these include a rapid, and sometimes downright collapse, decline in the birth rate, which leads to a decrease in the proportion of young people in the population. This phenomenon is sometimes referred to by demographers as aging from below. Further, the increase in the average life expectancy of people in conditions of increasing levels of material well-being also led to a faster than expected increase in the proportion of people of older (“non-reproducing”) ages in the population, i.e., as they say, to aging from above.
However, it would be wrong to try to explain the onset of the crisis only by demographic reasons. Its emergence was also influenced by many socio-economic, psychological, medical, social, and moral factors, which caused, in particular, such a phenomenon as a family crisis. The average family size in the countries of the second and third subgroups has recently decreased to 2.2–3 people. And it has become much less stable - with an increase in the number of divorces, the widespread practice of cohabitation without formal marriage, and a sharp increase in the number of illegitimate children.
Back in the early 1960s. the number of divorces per 1000 marriages in foreign European countries ranged from 100 to 200, but already at the end of the 1990s. it increased to 200–300. Even more frightening are the data on illegitimate children, the proportion of which during the same time increased by 5-10 times. In Great Britain and France, for example, the proportion of illegitimate children exceeds 30%. It is even higher in Denmark – 40%. But the “absolute champions” in this regard were and remain Sweden, Norway and Iceland with an indicator above 50%.
All these reasons and factors are combined in different ways in the countries listed in Table 40. Thus, in Germany and Italy, the influence of demographic factors seems to really predominate. In the post-socialist countries of Central-Eastern Europe (Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, etc.) it was affected by the fact that in the 1990s. they had to go through a rather painful stage of reforming the political system and transitioning from a command-planned to a market economy. The same applies to Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. And in Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus, the natural deterioration of the demographic situation coincided with the deep political and socio-economic crisis of the 1990s.
As for Russia, in the 20th century. One might say, she was unlucky with the demographic situation. The first phase of the demographic transition ended in it by the beginning of the twentieth century, but a real demographic explosion never followed. Moreover, over the course of half a century, Russia experienced three demographic crises: during the First World War and the Civil War, during the years of collectivization of the countryside and severe famine, and, finally, during the Great Patriotic War. In the 60s–80s. XX century The demographic situation in the country as a whole has stabilized, and back in 1989 the “formula” for the natural movement of the population looked like this: 19.6% - 10.6% = 9%. However, in the 1990s. A new, and especially strong, demographic crisis broke out (Table 41).
From the data in Table 41 it follows that in the 70s - early 80s. XX century Russia's demographic situation was relatively favorable. Thus, in 1983, 2.5 million children were born in the RSFSR. Then the beginning of perestroika and the fight against alcohol abuse had a beneficial effect on the birth rate and natural population growth. However, with the onset of the socio-economic crisis of the 1990s. The demographic situation has deteriorated sharply. Since 1992, Russia has experienced an absolute population decline. It can be added that in the RSFSR in 1988 there were 2 more children per woman (in the USSR as a whole - 2.2 children), and by the end of the 1990s. Women's fertility in the country has dropped to 1.17 children, while more than two are needed for sustainable population growth. The number of marriages per 1000 inhabitants in 2000 decreased to 6.3 (in 1955 - 12.1), and the number of divorces increased to 4.3 (in 1955 - 0.8). According to available forecasts, the population of Russia will continue to decrease in the first decades of the 21st century, when the small generation born in the 1990s will enter adulthood, and the largest generation, born in the 50s, will leave working age. . XX century As a result, by 2015 the number of residents in Russia may decrease (according to the average option) to 134 million people.
Table 41

In conclusion, it should be noted that, apparently, both demographic extremes - the explosion and the crisis - have both their advantages and their disadvantages. Therefore, some scientists put forward the concept of a demographic optimum, which, if interpreted uniformly, may not be quantitatively the same for different regions and countries.

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Plan

Introduction

1. Demographic situation in developed countries, government policies

2. Practical task

Conclusion

Bibliography

Introduction

This paper proposes to consider the issue of the demographic situation in developed countries, as well as the policies pursued by states.

As a practical task, a comparative description of two economic regions of Russia - Central Russia and North-Western Russia is proposed according to the following criteria:

Territory size;

Natural resources;

Population;

Economy;

Agro-industrial complex;

Transport.

1. DemographicsituationVdevelopedcountries,carried outstatepolicy

The most dangerous demographic threat to the world's demographic situation is a sharp decline in population in developed countries. This global negative trend will have the most significant significance for the world community. An impending demographic crisis, caused by a fairly rapid aging of the population without compensation by newborns, is predicted for the following countries:

European Union countries;

China (it must be noted that this threat will reach a significant level only at the turn of 2030-2035, and then only if the current actions of the Chinese leadership within the framework of the policy to stimulate the birth rate do not give any significant effect);

Figure 2.1 - Negative trends in the future world population (millions of people)

Figure 2.2 - World population (billion people)

It becomes obvious that the possession of the key and most valuable resource for the development of the world community - a large working-age population - will be a monopoly of developing countries. Even the low quality, from the point of view of the criterion of “professional qualifications” (despite the fact that this negative can be quickly eliminated), of this resource in a low-income country does not devalue its significance and value.

The most important thing is that the owners of the resource will not be able to raise the level of income of the specified population and ensure normal functioning conditions within their national borders. Thus, social dissatisfaction will provoke the “exit” of this human wave. The scenario of cessation of world population growth will not change the status of developing countries as “monopolists of human capital.”

The trend towards a decrease in the number of children in a family has affected almost all industrial countries.

Figure 2.3 - Number of children in the family (per woman)

Figure 2.4 - Projected annual change in population (until 2020), %

Over the last quarter of the twentieth century, the United Nations Secretariat has repeatedly conducted surveys of the governments of all UN member states about their attitude towards the demographic situation in their countries: how governments assess the compliance of various demographic processes with the interests of their countries and whether they consider it necessary to pursue policies aimed at preserving or changing the existing state of affairs.

Judgments about the main trends in changes in government positions are made on the basis of an analysis of responses to UN questionnaires, carried out by Anatoly ZUBANOV, an employee of the UN Population Division, and presented at an expert meeting organized by this Division on the topic “Policy responses to aging and population decline” (New York, 16- October 18, 2000).

Particular attention in this analysis was paid to countries with low fertility. Even in these countries, the same or, at least, similar processes are often assessed differently by both public opinion and government institutions. And depending on these assessments, different attitudes of governments to the demographic realities in their countries are formed, their views on whether it is necessary or not necessary to pursue a special policy aimed at changing or maintaining the situation in the demographic field, on possible and acceptable measures of such a policy.

As you know, there are countries in the world where the population is growing very quickly, and countries where, on the contrary, it is growing slowly, or even declining altogether. Governments in both groups of countries are dissatisfied. In all years when their views on population growth rates were asked, less than half of the responding governments considered the population growth situation in their countries to be satisfactory (see Table 2.1).

Table 2.1 - Government views on population growth rates (1974-1999), as a percentage of total countries responding

	Too muchhigh	Satisfactory	Too muchlow	Total	Numbercountries
WorldVin general




Moredevelopedcountries



Lessdevelopedcountries

The proportion of governments dissatisfied with population growth rates is especially high in less developed regions of the world. Here, governments are mainly concerned about high population growth rates. As for more developed countries, their concern, on the contrary, is with too low growth rates, but this concern was expressed by only 35% of governments responding to UN questions in 1999, and in 1993 there were even 12.5% of them. while the share of satisfied people remains quite high all the time.

The sharp change in views on population dynamics between 1993 and 1999 in developed regions was primarily due to the countries of Eastern Europe and the former USSR. Currently, all Eastern European countries (except the Czech Republic) and two-thirds of the former Soviet republics view their population growth rates as too low. Indicators in these countries are indeed among the lowest, and in most cases they are experiencing population decline. Of the rest of the European countries, only Greece, Portugal and Austria rate their population growth rates as too low. If we talk about eight large industrial countries, then in 1999 only the Russian government considered its population growth rates unsatisfactory (see Table 2.2).

Table 2.2 - Estimation of the growth rate of their population by the governments of 8 developed countries (1974 - 1999)

A country
	Too low	Too low	Satisfactory	Too low
	Too low	Too low	Satisfactory	Satisfactory
Germany	Satisfactory	Too low	Satisfactory	Satisfactory
	Satisfactory	Satisfactory	Satisfactory	Satisfactory
	Satisfactory	Satisfactory	Satisfactory	Satisfactory
South Korea	Too tall	Too tall	Satisfactory	Satisfactory
Great Britain	Satisfactory	Satisfactory	Satisfactory	Satisfactory
	Satisfactory	Satisfactory	Satisfactory	Satisfactory

High or low rates of population growth are determined primarily by the birth rate. It is not surprising that governments, dissatisfied with the rate of population growth, are also expressing concern about the birth rate in their countries. But this concern is often expressed by those countries that are satisfied with their growth rates. In the world as a whole, the proportion of governments viewing their countries' fertility levels as too low increased from 11% in 1976 to 17% in 1999.

Using the example of 8 large countries with low fertility, which also tends to further decline everywhere, one can see that government assessments tend to become increasingly alarming. If in 1976 only France and Germany assessed their fertility rate as too low, Russia, Great Britain, Italy, the USA and Japan were satisfied with its level, and South Korea even considered its fertility level too high, then in 1999 five out of eight countries already assessed its birth rate as too low (see table 2.3).

Table 2.3 - Assessment of the birth rate in their countries by the governments of 8 developed countries (1976-1999)

A country
	Satisfactory	Satisfactory	Too low	Too low
	Too low	Too low	Too low	Too low
Germany	Too low	Too low	Too low	Too low
	Satisfactory	Satisfactory	Satisfactory	Too low
	Satisfactory	Satisfactory	Too low	Too low
South Korea	Too tall	Too tall	Satisfactory	Satisfactory
Great Britain	Satisfactory	Satisfactory	Satisfactory	Satisfactory
	Satisfactory	Satisfactory	Satisfactory	Satisfactory

If a country expresses dissatisfaction with its fertility level, but is not bothered by low population growth rates, then it can be assumed that the country has a source of population growth other than fertility. This source can only be immigration.

Immigration indeed became a significant phenomenon in the last decades of the twentieth century in many countries and helped maintain population growth rates higher than their established birth rates allowed. But at the same time, in developed countries, concern about the volume of immigration has been growing. In 1976, 17% of governments in developed countries assessed the level of immigration as very high, in 1999 - already 27%. Within the group of countries with low fertility, 30% (17 countries, including Russia) believed in 1999 that the level of immigration was too high and only 2 countries (Moldova and Ukraine) rated it as too low, the rest considered this level to be satisfactory.

In the world as a whole, there has been an increase in the number of countries in which governments consider it necessary to influence the rate of population growth. But this increase was mainly due to developing countries, where governments are increasingly speaking out in favor of reducing the rate of demographic growth. At the same time, the number of countries responding to the UN questionnaire and the proportion of those in which governments considered it necessary to implement policies to slow population growth increased (see table 2.4).

Table 2.4 - Policies that governments consider appropriate to pursue in their countries regarding population growth rates (1974-1999), as a percentage of the total number of countries responding

	Reduce	Supportongivenlevel	Promote	Notinterfere	Total	Numbercountries

WorldVin general




Moredevelopedcountries




Lessdevelopedcountries

In developed countries with low population growth rates, the situation is somewhat different. The number of supporters of non-intervention was clearly growing here. True, in the 1990s there was a slight increase in the number of countries from more developed regions (from 16% in 1993 to 23% in 1999) that supported policies aimed at increasing population growth rates. Russia and most other countries of Eastern Europe, Slovenia, Croatia, as well as Armenia and Kazakhstan have proclaimed policies aimed at changing the existing demographic situation and preventing population decline.

At the same time, the share of states declaring the need to increase population growth rates is lower than the share of states that consider these rates to be too low. Some Western countries in the 1990s, in contrast to the former socialist countries of Europe, moved from a policy of stimulating population growth to a policy of laissez-faire. A typical example is France, which has long been known for the active position of the state in relation to demographic processes. In UN questionnaires in 1976, 1983 and 1993, its government responded that it was pursuing policies to increase population growth and fertility rates, and in 1999 announced a position of non-intervention in the situation.

Among the 8 large industrial countries, only Russia now declares, as it did in the 70s and 80s (but not in the first half of the 90s), to pursue policies aimed at increasing population growth rates (see Table 2.5 ).

Table 2.5 - Policies regarding population growth rates that the governments of 8 developed countries consider necessary to pursue (1974-1999)

A country
	Promote	Promote	Keep out	Promote
	Promote	Promote	Promote	Keep out
Germany	Keep out	Keep out	Keep out	Keep out
	Keep out	Save existing	Keep out	Keep out
	Keep out	Keep out	Keep out	Keep out
South Korea	Downgrade	Downgrade	Downgrade	Keep out
Great Britain	Keep out	Keep out	Keep out	Keep out
	Keep out	Keep out	Keep out	Keep out

The laissez-faire attitude extends to the fertility policies of developed countries, and may be dictated precisely by the refusal of most governments to try to increase the birth rate. This makes the situation in developed countries very different from the situation in the third world, where the main cause of concern is high birth rates.

Against the backdrop of growing concern about low fertility levels, it seems almost paradoxical that the number of governments supporting policies aimed at increasing fertility has not only not increased, but even decreased. This can be seen, in particular, in the example of large industrial countries. In 1976, the Russian government announced the need to pursue policies aimed at maintaining the existing birth rate, the French government hoped to increase it through policy measures, and the South Korean government hoped to lower it. By 1999, the number of governments that did not consider it necessary to pursue policies aimed at changing the birth rate increased from 5 to 7, and only the Russian government declared support for policies in favor of increasing the birth rate (see Table 2.6).

Table 2.6 - Policies regarding the birth rate that the governments of 8 developed countries consider necessary to pursue (1974-1999)

A country
	Keep existing	Promote	Keep out	Promote
	Promote	Promote	Promote	Keep out
Germany	Keep out	Keep out	Keep out	Keep out
	Keep out	Keep out	Keep out	Keep out
	Keep out	Keep out	Keep out	Keep out
South Korea			Keep existing	Keep out
Great Britain	Keep out	Keep out	Keep out	Keep out
	Keep out	Keep out	Keep out	Keep out

The declared “non-interference” of most Western states in fertility issues and the refusal to influence the growth rate or age structure of the population does not mean the state’s complete withdrawal from the field of demographic policy. Only the refusal to pursue certain quantitative goals is emphasized (which may be due to the ineffectiveness of all previous attempts to achieve such goals).

"Government Great Britain Not conducts politics V region population V sense active attempts influence on number population, his age structure or Components her changes, behind except immigration... It Also Not expresses opinions, which number And structure population desirable For Great Britain. Main his care - This welfare population, Although government And tracks trends demographic development- Solutions O birth children People accept themselves, But task government - provide their information And means to solutions were effective. IN in particular, government provides services By planning families- Government takes into account questions population at production economic And social politicians".

Position government Great Britain , presented on Cairo conferences By population And development 1994 of the year

For countries with low birth rates, immigration is an important source of population growth. However, they all remain wary of immigration. Countries that have accepted foreigners for permanent residence are becoming increasingly selective towards immigrants, introducing certain restrictions.

The European Union Commission in its 1994 document noted the need to limit the admission of foreigners, justifying this by the economic situation and the situation on the labor market.

In 1999, of the 57 countries with below-replacement fertility rates, only 3 countries (Russia, Moldova and Singapore) reported having policies to encourage immigration, 46% (26 countries, including most countries in Eastern and Northern Europe, the United States and Canada) had policy of maintaining the existing level of immigration, 32% (18 countries, including Belarus, Slovenia, Greece, France, Germany, etc.) pursue a policy of reducing immigration and 18% (10 countries, in particular, Georgia, Croatia, the Netherlands) do not interfere with this process.

The example of 8 large industrial countries shows that, as a rule, they prefer not to expand legal immigration, which is now quite strictly controlled, and to counteract illegal immigration.

At the same time, in 1999, no country, with the exception of Germany, set a goal of reducing the number of migrants of all types (see table 2.7).

Table 2.7 - Immigration policies that the governments of 8 developed countries considered necessary to pursue in 1999

A country	PolicyByattitudeTo:

Immigrationonpermanentresidence
	Promote

Germany
	Keep existing
	Keep existing
South Korea	Keep existing
Great Britain	Keep existing
	Keep existing
EntrypersonsWithresolutiononficklework
	Keep existing
	Keep existing
Germany
	Promote
	Keep existing
South Korea	Keep existing
Great Britain	Keep existing
	Keep existing
Entrydependentspersons,havingpermissiononwork
	Keep out
	Keep existing
Germany
	Keep existing
	Keep existing
South Korea	Keep existing
Great Britain	Keep existing
	Keep existing
Entryrefugees

	Keep existing
Germany
	Keep existing
	Keep existing
South Korea	Keep existing
Great Britain	Keep existing
	Keep existing
Entryforceddisplaced people
	Stop
	Keep existing
Germany
	Keep existing
	Keep existing
South Korea	Keep existing
Great Britain	Keep existing
	Keep existing
Entryunregisteredorillegalmigrants
	Stop
	Stop
Germany	Stop
	Stop
	Stop
South Korea	Stop
Great Britain	Stop
	Stop
Integrationscitizensothersnationalities


Germany

	Keep out
South Korea	Keep out
Great Britain

Government statements regarding migration policy cannot be taken too literally. Migration is the subject of intense political debate, and governments always have to look to public opinion when formulating their positions on immigration. But at the same time, they cannot ignore economic and demographic realities.

The importance of immigration is increasingly understood in connection with the aging process of the population and the need to find sources of compensation for the declining labor force. Since in many countries there is opposition to immigration, governments, responding to public sentiment, are trying to find solutions to emerging problems, focusing on internal resources, in particular, increasing labor productivity, flexible work hours, raising the retirement age, encouraging greater involvement of women in production.

However, they cannot refuse the migration resource and are trying to find palliative solutions by expanding selective or temporary immigration.

2. Practicalexercise

population birth rate demographic

Conduct a comparison of the economic regions of Russia (Central Russia and Northwestern Russia).

Table 2.1

	Economic region
	central Russia	Northwestern Russia

Territory size	483 thousand km 2	212 thousand km 2 (the smallest region in Russia in terms of territory.
Natural resources	Brown coal, peat, building materials and phosphates, salt. In the north there are forests and water resources. Iron ore resources of the Kursk magnetic anomaly. Land resources are large, thanks to the temperate continental climate with sufficient moisture; with proper land reclamation and agricultural technology, they allow good harvests of grain, flax, potatoes, and sugar beets (in the south).	Bauxite, phosphorite, refractory clay, limestone, shale, peat, biological and forest resources.
Population	The urban population predominates, and in rural areas there is a sharp shortage of labor resources. About 1040 urban settlements (including 364 cities). The most important place among cities is occupied by “millionaire” cities:	The population of the region is 9.2 million people (6.2% of the total population of Russia). The majority of the population consists of city dwellers. The national composition is heterogeneous: most of the population are Russians, among other nations the Komi predominate,
	Moscow (8.8 million people), Nizhny Novgorod (1.4 million people), around which urban agglomerations are formed. There are small villages in the northern part of the region, and large villages in the southern part.	Karelians, Sami, Nenets.
Farm	It specializes in knowledge-intensive skilled mechanical engineering and (to a lesser extent) in industries that process natural resources into construction materials (chemical, metallurgical and forestry industries), historically established light (textile) industry. A special place is occupied by science and scientific and technical services, management, higher education, culture and art, and tourist and excursion activities (recently). The machine-building complex is distinguished by the presence of production and scientific-production associations on the basis of the largest machine-building plants, as well as close connections with scientific,	Specializes in diversified mechanical engineering. 2/3 of Russia's turbines and generators and a significant share of equipment for nuclear power plants are produced here. Construction of sea vessels, production of optical and electronic equipment (defense complex, currently undergoing conversion). Non-ferrous metallurgy and ferrous metallurgy processing plants are closely related to mechanical engineering. Chemical, textile, woodworking, fishing, porcelain and earthenware industries, production of footwear and fur products. A diversified economy corresponds to a diversified science - there are 400 research institutes,
	design and design institutes and organizations. The chemical industry stands out, producing rubber and tires, plastics, and fertilizers. The fuel and energy complex uses mainly fuel and energy from other regions. The electric power industry includes thermal power plants, hydroelectric power plants, and nuclear power plants.	engaged in work in the field of technology, energy, defense, geology, Arctic and Antarctic problems, nature conservation, culture and art.
Agro-industrial complex	1. Southern part of the region. Chernozem soils, which produce 10% of grain and potatoes, 20% of sunflowers, half of sugar beets and 8-9% of livestock products (meat, milk, eggs). A powerful food industry has been created on the basis of agriculture (flour milling, oil milling, beet sugar, tobacco, meat). 2. Between the Oka and Volga rivers. Agriculture is mainly of a suburban nature. There is a powerful food industry. 3. North and west of the region. Flax farming and dairy farming.	Specializes in meat and dairy farming and flax farming. In suburban areas - in the production of vegetables, potatoes, and poultry farming. Oats, barley, spring wheat, and winter rye (the main grain crop of the region) are grown. The region lacks its own agricultural products.
Transport	The railway and road networks departing from Moscow are radial in nature, which ensures the efficiency of intra-regional connections for the transport of goods and passengers. The direction Moscow - St. Petersburg is equipped with a high-speed railway. The main water transportation is carried out along the Volga-Baltic system and the Canal. Moscow (western part of the region). The airline system from Moscow airports is the largest in the country.	The leading mode of transport is railway. The area is one of the first in the country in terms of railway network density. 12 directions of roads to Moscow, the Urals (via Cherepovets-Vologda), Belarus and Ukraine (via Vitebsk-Orsha-Kharkov) originate from St. Petersburg. Railways connect the North-West with the North (St. Petersburg-Petrozavodsk-Murmansk and through Vologda and Kotlas with Syktyvkar and Vorkuta), the Baltic states (St. Petersburg-Tallinn, St. Petersburg-Pskov-Riga, St. Petersburg-Pskov- Vilnius and further - to Kaliningrad). All these roads are of particular importance because they connect almost all of Russia with the Baltic. This is also where the Mariinsky water system is “introduced” into the Baltic, providing a direct connection between Russia’s northern seas and its southern seas. In plans to create a regional intersectoral transport system, great importance
		allocated to the construction of a ring highway around St. Petersburg (this will free the city from a significant part of freight vehicles), reconstruction of Pulkovo airport and construction of a new modern airport. Finally, the construction of pipelines (primarily from the Kirishi Oil Refinery) should take on a significant scale.

Conclusion

This paper examines the issue of the demographic situation in developed countries, provides the official opinion of governments of different countries on this issue, changes in this opinion over time, as well as the policies that governments consider appropriate to address the demographic issue.

As part of the practical assignment, a comparison was made of the economic regions of Russia - Central Russia and Northwestern Russia according to the proposed criteria.

Listusedliterature

1. Simonenko,N.N. Economic geography: Textbook. Benefit / N.N. Simonenko, V.N. Simonenko, I.S. Merkusheva, N.N. Onuchina. - 3rd ed. reworked and additional - Komsomolsk-on-Amur: GOUVPO “Komsomolsk-on-Amur State. tech. University", 2010. - 105 p.

2. United Nations website URL: http://www.un.org (access date: 03/01/2011).

3. Resource of the analytical center of the Investment Programs Foundation URL: http://collaps2031.org (access date: 02/24/2011).

4. The demographic situation in developed countries through the eyes of their governments. Article on the POLIT.RU portal dated 06/13/2001 URL: http://www.polit.ru/country/ 2001/06/13/464284.html (access date: 03/01/2011).

Posted on allbest.ru

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Demographic crisis in the modern world *

V.P. MAKSAKOVSKY

Table 1
European countries with negative natural population growth

IN first subgroup includes countries where a fairly favorable demographic situation still exists, characterized by at least average fertility and natural increase rates, ensuring expanded population reproduction. An example of a country of this kind is the United States, where the reproduction formula (fertility - mortality = natural increase) at the end of the 90s remained at the level of 15‰ - 9‰ = 6‰. Accordingly, the average annual population growth was 0.6%. This subgroup includes Canada, France, the Netherlands, Norway, Ireland, Switzerland, where the average annual population growth was at least 0.3-0.5%. At this rate of population growth, doubling of the population in these countries can be expected in 100-200 years, or even more (in Switzerland - in 250 years).

Co. second subgroup it is necessary to include countries in which, in fact, expanded reproduction of the population is no longer ensured. These include mainly European countries, where the total fertility rate dropped to 1.5 in the mid-90s. Some of these countries (for example, Poland) still have a minimal excess of birth rates over deaths. Others, of which there are many more, have become countries with zero population growth. These are Austria, Belgium, Spain, Portugal, Denmark, Croatia, Ireland.

Finally, third subgroup unites countries with negative natural growth population, or, more simply put, with its natural decline (depopulation). The total fertility rate in this group of countries is also extremely low. The number of such countries with “minus” population growth only in 1990-2000. increased from 3 to 15. All of them are in Europe (Table 1).

It would not be a mistake to say that the countries of the third (and in fact the second) subgroup have already entered the demographic crisis, which was brought to life by a complex of interrelated reasons. First of all, these include a rapid, and sometimes downright collapse, decline in the birth rate, which leads to a decrease in the proportion of young people in the population. Demographers call this phenomenon aging from below. Further, the increase in the average life expectancy of people in conditions of increasing levels of material well-being also led to a faster than expected increase in the proportion of people of older (“non-reproductive”) age in the population, that is, as they say, to aging from above.

table 2
Population dynamics and its natural movement in Russia

However, it would be wrong to try to explain the onset of the crisis only by demographic reasons. Its occurrence was also influenced by many socio-economic, psychological, medical-social, moral factors, which caused, in particular, such a phenomenon as family crisis. The average family size in the countries of the second and third subgroups has recently decreased to 2.2-3 people. And it has become much less stable - with an increase in the number of divorces, the widespread practice of cohabitation without formal marriage, and a sharp increase in the number of illegitimate children.

If at the beginning of the 60s the number of divorces per 1000 marriages in foreign European countries ranged from 100 to 200, then at the end of the 90s it increased to 200-300. Even more egregious are the data on illegitimate children, the proportion of which during the same time increased by 5-10 times. In Great Britain and France, for example, the proportion of illegitimate children exceeds 30%. It is even higher in Denmark - 40%. But the “absolute champions” in this regard were and remain Sweden, Norway and Iceland with an indicator of over 50%.

All these reasons and factors in the countries listed in table. 2, are combined in different ways. Thus, in Germany and Italy, the influence of demographic factors does seem to predominate. The post-socialist countries of Central and Eastern Europe (Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, etc.) were affected by the fact that in the 90s they had to go through a rather painful stage of reforming the political system and the transition from a command-planned to a market economy. The same applies to Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. And in the CIS member countries (Russia, Ukraine, Belarus), the natural deterioration of the demographic situation coincided with the deep political and socio-economic crisis of the 90s.

As for Russia, in the twentieth century. One might say, she was unlucky with the demographic situation. The first phase of the demographic transition ended in it by the beginning of the twentieth century, but a real demographic explosion never followed. Moreover, over the course of half a century, Russia experienced three demographic crises: during the First World War and the Civil War, during the years of collectivization of the countryside and severe famine, and, finally, during the Great Patriotic War. In the 60-80s, the demographic situation in the country generally stabilized. However, in the 90s, a new, and especially strong, demographic crisis broke out (Table 2).

From the data in table. 2 it follows that in the 70s and early 80s the demographic situation in Russia was relatively favorable. Thus, in 1983, 2.5 million children were born in the RSFSR. Then the beginning of perestroika and the fight against alcohol abuse had a beneficial effect on the birth rate and natural population growth. However, with the onset of the socio-economic crisis of the 90s, the demographic situation worsened sharply. Since 1992, Russia has experienced an absolute population decline. It can be added that in the RSFSR in 1988 there were another 2 children per woman (in the USSR as a whole - 2.2 children), and by the end of the 90s, the fertility of women in the country decreased to 1.24 children, while for sustainable population growth requires more than two. According to available forecasts, the population of Russia will continue to decrease in the first decades of the 21st century, when the small generation born in the 90s will enter adulthood, and the largest generation, born in the 50s, will leave working age. As a result, by 2015 the number of residents in Russia may decrease to 138 million people.

Apparently, both demographic extremes - the explosion and the crisis - have both their advantages and disadvantages. Therefore, some scientists put forward the concept of a demographic optimum, which, if interpreted uniformly, may be quantitatively different for different regions and countries.

* Essay from the book “Geographical Picture of the World”, which is being prepared for republication. - Note ed.

1. T.R. Malthus as the founder of the science of population growth.

Years of life of Thomas Malthus: 1766-1834. He was an English clergyman, then professor of modern history and political economy at the East India Company College. His main book, “An Essay on the Law of Population, or an Exposition of the Past and Present Effect of this Law on the Welfare of the Human Race,” was written in 1789.

Malthus argued that food production in the world is growing in an arithmetic progression (1,2,3,4,5...), while the world's population is growing in a geometric progression (1,2,4,8,16...). This will inevitably lead to a situation where most people face the threat of starvation. Only the strongest and most cruel will be able to survive in such conditions. These ideas inspired Darwin and Wallace to create the theory of the struggle for survival in biology. So that people could avoid poverty and starvation, epidemics and wars for a piece of bread, Malthus proposed the following measures to solve the problem of overpopulation:

· abstinence from early marriages,

· prevention of too large family growth,

· refusal of low-income people to marry,

· adherence to strict moral standards before marriage,

· elimination of social assistance programs for the poor.

However, he opposed birth control, believing that if married couples could easily limit the number of children, the primary incentive for socio-economic progress would be lost: people would lead an idle lifestyle and society would stagnate. Subsequently, the idea of birth control as a means of combating a disproportionate increase in population began to play a major role in the concept of so-called neo-Malthusianism.

In the social hierarchy, people are arranged according to the principle of the fittest, that is, the elite are the fittest people, the mob are the least fit people.

2. Demography.

Demography is the science of the size, composition and change of population. In recent years, Russia's population has been declining at a catastrophic rate. Because of this, schools, kindergartens and nurseries began to close. Most people blame the economic crisis for this, but the example of Western countries shows that economic prosperity does not always lead to higher birth rates. Population growth rates are among the most dramatic indicators:

· 1 million years ago the population of the entire world was only about 125,000 people,

· 300,000 years ago – 1 million people,

· by Christmas - 285 million people,

· in 1930 – 2 billion people,

· in 1960 – 3 billion people,

· by the beginning of 2009, the world population was 6.6 billion people.

The main reasons for the demographic explosion: The population explosion began in Europe in the 19th century. In the Middle Ages in Europe there were high levels of birth and death rates, many children were born, but they could not be treated and a large proportion of children died from epidemics and famine, so population growth was minimal. For example, Peter 1 had 14 children from two wives, of whom only 3 survived. In modern times, the birth rate remained high, but medical care improved and welfare increased. This caused a population explosion during the period of industrialization.

Reasons for the decline in fertility in modern developed countries: In the 20th century Birth and death rates in Russia, Europe and North America decreased, so population growth became minimal again, the population of some countries even began to decline. This is especially dangerous against the backdrop of a demographic explosion in Asia, Africa and Latin America. This demographic situation inevitably leads to migration or even invasion of populations from Asia, Africa and Latin America to Europe, North America and Russia. The first harbinger of such an invasion was Islamic global terrorism, the war in Chechnya, and American operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. There are forecasts about the possibility of a Third World War of the West against Islamic states. Russia is on the verge of a demographic explosion; on the southern borders of Russia there are countries with high rates of population growth - China and Islamic countries. In China, they are trying to combat excessive population growth with taxes on the second child, which has led to the emergence of “underground”, unregistered children. In Russia there was a demographic explosion in the 19th century. - early 20th century But the population increase resulting from this explosion was destroyed during the terrible historical cataclysms that befell the Russian people in the 20th century. The Soviet Union had demographic problems in the late 1950s as a consequence of World War II, as very few children were born during the war and many men died during the war. Today, many Russian people migrate from neighboring countries to Russia. In ancient times, an example of migration was the great migration of peoples - the Huns, Avars, Goths, Suevi, Vandals, Burgundians, Franks, Angles, Saxons, Lombards, Slavs in the 4-7 centuries AD. In the 7th-9th centuries AD. There was a migration of Arabs, Normans, Proto-Bulgarians, and Magyars. Migration from Europe to the United States was particularly intense in the 19th and 20th centuries.

3. Other reasons for the decline and increase in fertility in the global world.

More boys are born than girls, but men die at an earlier age than women. The small number of teenagers leads to a labor shortage. Urban residents have fewer children than rural residents, since for rural residents many children mean a lot of hands on subsidiary plots. Highly educated women have few children, since during the childbearing period of their lives they are forced to spend time primarily on education and career. Before deciding to have a child, parents calculate possible costs and their income. In a large family, parents oppose their children receiving a high level of education. Many children die before the age of one year because they do not have sufficiently developed immunity to diseases. The mortality rate is affected by sanitary conditions (quality of drinking water, etc.), quality of medical care, and quality of nutrition.

4.Modern demographic crisis and depopulation in Russia.

At the end of 2009, the population of Russia was 141 million 927 thousand people. Population growth in the country has stopped since 1991; the birth rate in the RSFSR fell below the level of simple generation replacement back in the 1960s. Today, the mortality rate is 1.5 times higher than the birth rate, the population is declining by several hundred thousand people annually. A negative feature of Russia is the fact that the birth rate has fallen to the level of developed countries, while the mortality rate has remained at the level of developing countries. Alcohol mortality in modern Russia (600-700 thousand people per year) is associated with the world's highest level of consumption of legal and illegal (surrogate) alcoholic beverages. Population decline has been somewhat contained by immigration - primarily of ethnic Russians and Russian speakers from Kazakhstan, Central Asia and Transcaucasia - but these reserves are now dwindling due to inflexible immigration policies. Russia's population is estimated to be between 83 and 115 by 2050 million people According to the 2002 Population Census, the population of Russia fell by 1.8 million from 1989 to 2002. Every minute in Russia 3 people are born, and 4 die. The global trend is the opposite: the ratio of births to deaths is 2.6. Mortality is especially high among Russian men, whose average life expectancy is 61.4 years. Life expectancy for women is 73.9 years. According to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Zhukov at a government meeting on February 17, 2010, the increase in the average life expectancy of the Russian population has been going on for several years. In 2009, this figure increased by more than one year (1.2 years) and averaged more than 69 years for both men and women. In 2009, 1.764 million children were born in the Russian Federation, which is 50 thousand or almost 3% more than in 2008, while the number of deaths decreased by 62 thousand or 3%. According to Zhukov, natural population decline has decreased by more than 30% compared to 2008 levels. “For the first time in 19 years, we are seeing natural population growth in the Ural and Siberian federal districts,” said the Deputy Prime Minister. He also said that, according to preliminary data, at the end of the year, the population of Russia, taking into account migration, increased for the first time in 15 years.

5.Mortality and life expectancy in Russia.

6.Fertility.

The birth rate in Russia does not reach the level necessary for simple reproduction of the population. The fertility rate is 1.32 (the number of children per woman), while for simple population reproduction a fertility rate of 2.11-2.15 is required. At the beginning of the 20th century, Russia had the highest birth rate in Europe. The most rapid decline in fertility occurred in the 1930s and 1940s. By 1965, the birth rate in the RSFSR dropped below the level of simple reproduction of generations. In the 1980s, there was an increase in the birth rate due to government policy measures. In the late 1980s, the birth rate began to decline again. Against the backdrop of rising mortality, a demographic decline arose (mortality exceeds birth rate). Regional differences in fertility are gradually smoothing out. If in the 60s the total fertility rate in Moscow was 1.4, and in Dagestan - 5, then to date this figure in Moscow has hardly changed, and in Dagestan has fallen to 2.13.

7.Migration situation in Russia.

Russia is in second place in the world (after the United States) in terms of the number of legal and illegal immigrants. There are more than 13 million of them in Russia. - 9% of the population. In 2006, a law was passed that significantly simplified labor migration. One of the factors worsening the demographic situation is the illegal trafficking of young women of childbearing age. According to some estimates, hundreds of thousands of women were taken abroad by deception, but the state practically does not fight this phenomenon.

There are two opposing points of view on attracting immigrants:

· Attracting migrants will increase the competitiveness of the Russian economy due to cheaper labor. To maintain numbers

population at one level, it is necessary to attract at least 700 thousand immigrants per year, and to maintain the working-age population - at least 1 million per year.

· Attracting unskilled migrants does not contribute to increasing the production of goods. Economic growth in the long term can

occur only due to an increase in labor productivity - that is, due to an increase in qualifications and wage levels, and not through their reduction.

Often, among the demographic threats to Russia’s security, a possible “quiet expansion” on the part of the densely populated China in relation to the Far East with the subsequent seizure of this territory according to the “Kosovo scenario” is mentioned, while for proof, the population densities of the Far East and China differ by tens of times. However, in China, due to the unfavorable climate, population density decreases from the central provinces to the north and northeast, and the border regions of Russia are often even more densely populated than the neighboring counties of China. From this we can conclude that the Russian Far East is not an overly attractive target for immigration. In the Far East today there are from 30 thousand to 200 thousand Chinese, which is not enough for “demographic expansion”. At the same time, the share of youth among the population in China is rapidly declining.

8. State demographic policy.

In 1944, awards were established in Russia for mothers of many children - “Mother - Heroine” and “Maternal Glory”. In 1952, two-week maternity leave was introduced. At the same time, it was during Stalin’s time that the birth rate fell the most. From 1925 to 2000, the total fertility rate in Russia decreased by 5.59 children per woman (from 6.80 to 1.21). Of these, 3.97 children, or 71% of the total decline, occurred in the years 1925-1955 - the “Stalin era”.

In 2001, the “Concept of demographic development of the Russian Federation for the period until 2015” was adopted. In 2007, a new “Concept of the demographic policy of the Russian Federation for the period until 2025” was adopted. In Russia, small state payments are made at the birth of a child, as well as child support assistance to low-income families. In his address to the Federal Assembly in 2006, President Vladimir Putin formulated a number of measures to stimulate the birth rate, including large payments for the birth of a second child. The corresponding law on “maternity capital”, which allows you to receive 250 thousand rubles. through participation in the mortgage, payment for education and an increase in pension savings, in effect since 2007. Left-wing political forces use the demographic problem to accuse the government of pursuing “anti-people policies” and consider it necessary to sharply increase state assistance for the birth of a child. Opponents of this point of view cite data showing that the birth rate in a country does not depend on social benefits in that country. For example, in Sweden, social benefits are much higher than in the United States, while the birth rate is lower (when compared with developing countries, where social benefits are almost non-existent and the birth rate is huge, the difference is even more noticeable). From this it is concluded that increasing payments in Russia will not lead to an increase in the birth rate. Attempts to materially stimulate the birth rate evoke a response either from marginal groups of the population or from representatives of ethnic groups who already form large families; for the middle class this is not a serious motivation.

Appendix to §37.

Results of the All-Russian Population Census of Russia in 2002.

It established that between the last two censuses, from 1989 to 2002, the population of Russia decreased by 1.8 million people to 145.2 million. National structure of the population: the number of Russians is 115.9 million, or 79, 8% of the total population, Tatars - 5.6 million, or 3.8%), Ukrainians - 2.9 million, 2%, Bashkirs - 1.7 million, 1.2%), Chuvash - 1, 6 million, 1.1%, Chechens - 1.4 million, 0.9%, Armenians - 1.1 million, 0.8%. The number of Muslim peoples was 14.5 million (10% of the population), Christians - 129 million (89%). After the census, the share of Russians decreased from 81.5% to 79.8%.

73% of Russians are urban residents, 27% are rural. Moreover, a large share of the urban population is concentrated in large cities. A third of Russia's residents are concentrated in the largest cities - "millionaires" (13 cities): Moscow, St. Petersburg, Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg, Nizhny Novgorod, Samara, Omsk, Kazan, Chelyabinsk, Rostov-on-Don, Ufa, Volgograd, Perm. Moscow is one of the 20 largest cities in the world. The fertility parameters of the urban and rural populations are converging. The 2002 census recorded a significant increase in the number of women compared to the number of men, which amounted to 10 million people. The ratio of men to women according to the 2002 census in Russia was 53.4% women and 46.6% men.

The census recorded an excess of the number of elderly people over the number of children:

18.1% of the population are children

61.3% - working age population

20.5% are over working age.

Global demographic crises and trends of the 20th century: the First World War (1914 - 1918), the Civil War (1917-1922), famine in the USSR (1932-1933), the period of collectivization and mass repression (1930-1953), World War II, deportations peoples, post-war famine, economic crisis of the 1990s. According to demographer Anatoly Vishnevsky, the total direct and indirect demographic losses of Russia over the 20th century as a result of wars, famines, repressions, economic and social upheavals are estimated at 140-150 million people. Without all these losses, the population of Russia by the end of the twentieth century would have been twice as large as it actually was. The latest demographic crisis has been going on for more than 10 years, and, despite the absence of wars and repressions, the birth rate remains at an extremely low level, although recently it has been growing quite steadily (but, however, at a rather slow pace). Similar 10-year periods of sharp declines in fertility have been observed in almost all developed countries except Israel. This crisis is explained by the overexploitation of the population in a developed market society; At the same time, the emerging shortage of labor resources is covered by migration and the transfer of production to demographically prosperous countries. The period of the demographic crisis completely coincides with periods of “shock therapy” in all European countries of the former socialist camp.

During the 20th century. Russia's population was aging. When compared with other countries with low birth rates, it turns out that Russia's population is not the oldest. In 1990, it ranked 25th among such countries (the position was more dramatic in Japan, Italy, and Germany). Currently, the share of people aged 65 years and older in the Russian population is 13%. According to the UN scale, a population is considered old if the proportion of a given age exceeds 7%. Compared to the 1989 census, the average age of the country's residents increased by 4.3 years and amounted to 37.1 years. The aging of the population in the near future may negatively affect the development of the country's economy and gives rise to the problem of financing the pension system. Some officials today propose raising the retirement age. But such a government decision could cause an explosion of discontent among the population.

Questions to think about.

1. Which of the two opposing points of view about attracting migrants seems more correct to you?

2. In your opinion, is Chinese migration dangerous for Russia?

3. In your opinion, should state benefits be increased upon the birth of a child?

4. In your opinion, should the retirement age be increased?

Economically developed countries

The economically developed countries of the world have long passed the second phase of the demographic transition and entered its third phase, which is characterized by a decrease in natural population growth rates (see Table 1). Until recently, there were almost no very significant differences in this regard between them. However, recently, quite strong differentiation has also begun to occur in this group of countries, and now this group can also be divided into three subgroups.

Table 1. European countries with negative natural population growth

The first subgroup includes countries where a fairly favorable demographic situation still exists, characterized by at least average fertility and natural increase rates, ensuring expanded population reproduction. An example of a country of this kind is the United States, where the reproduction formula (fertility - mortality = natural increase) at the end of the 90s remained at the level of 15‰ - 9‰ = 6‰. Accordingly, the average annual population growth was 0.6%. This subgroup includes Canada, France, the Netherlands, Norway, Ireland, Switzerland, where the average annual population growth was at least 0.3-0.5%. At this rate of population growth, doubling of the population in these countries can be expected in 100-200 years, or even more (in Switzerland - in 250 years).

The second subgroup includes countries in which, in fact, expanded reproduction of the population is no longer ensured. These include mainly European countries, where the total fertility rate dropped to 1.5 in the mid-90s. Some of these countries (for example, Poland) still have a minimal excess of birth rates over deaths. Others, of which there are many more, have become countries with zero population growth. These are Austria, Belgium, Spain, Portugal, Denmark, Croatia, Ireland.

Finally, the third subgroup unites countries with negative natural population growth, or, more simply, with its natural decline (depopulation). The total fertility rate in this group of countries is also extremely low. The number of such countries with “minus” population growth only in 1990-2000. grew from 3 to 15. All of them are in Europe.

It would not be a mistake to say that the countries of the third (and in fact the second) subgroup have already entered a period of demographic crisis, which was brought to life by a complex of interrelated reasons. First of all, these include a rapid, and sometimes downright collapse, decline in the birth rate, which leads to a decrease in the proportion of young people in the population. Demographers call this phenomenon aging from below. Further, the increase in the average life expectancy of people in conditions of increasing levels of material well-being also led to a faster than expected increase in the proportion of people of older (“non-reproductive”) age in the population, that is, as they say, to aging from above.

However, it would be wrong to try to explain the onset of the crisis only by demographic reasons. Its emergence was also influenced by many socio-economic, psychological, medical, social, and moral factors, which caused, in particular, such a phenomenon as a family crisis. The average family size in the countries of the second and third subgroups has recently decreased to 2.2-3 people. And it has become much less stable - with an increase in the number of divorces, the widespread practice of cohabitation without formal marriage, and a sharp increase in the number of illegitimate children.

All these reasons and factors are combined in different ways in the countries listed in Table 2. Thus, in Germany and Italy, the influence of demographic factors does seem to predominate. The post-socialist countries of Central and Eastern Europe (Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, etc.) were affected by the fact that in the 90s they had to go through a rather painful stage of reforming the political system and the transition from a command-planned to a market economy. The same applies to Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. And in the CIS member countries (Russia, Ukraine, Belarus), the natural deterioration of the demographic situation coincided with the deep political and socio-economic crisis of the 90s.