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Calculation of the Nelson index. Methodology for choosing the option of innovative development of a petrochemical enterprise

Methodology for choosing the option of innovative development of a petrochemical enterprise

The method selection options Petrochemical enterprises innovative development

Osinovskaya Irina Vladimirovna

[email protected]

Lenkova Olga Viktorovna

Candidate of Economics, Associate Professor of the Department of Management in the Fuel and Energy Complex

Tyumen State Oil and Gas University

Olga_lenkova @ mail . en

Annotation:

The article presents a methodology for choosing the innovative development of a petrochemical enterprise based on the hierarchy analysis method. The hierarchy of ensuring the innovative development of an enterprise and options for its transformation in order to select the basic strategy of an enterprise and options for implementing specific innovations are considered. An overview of the basic strategies that can be applied in the petrochemical industry is presented. The hierarchy outlines targets that will provide an innovative development path for petrochemical enterprises.

abstract:

The paper presents a methodology for selecting innovative development of enterprise petrochemical profile on the basis of the analysis of the hierarchy. We consider the hierarchy to ensure innovative development of the enterprise and its transformation options to select base business strategy and deployment options specific innovations. A review of the basic strategies that can be applied in the petrochemical industry. In the hierarchy of designated targets, that will provide an innovative way of development of petrochemical enterprises.

Keywords:hierarchy analysis method, strategy, innovation, development, enterprise, petrochemistry

keywords:method of hierarchical analysis, strategy, innovation, development, enterprise, petrochemicals

In the technological chain of vertically integrated oil companies (VIOCs), petrochemistry is the weakest, but at the same time the most promising link for development. Significant volumes of investments in the modernization of production by the largest VIOCs in recent years have led to an increase in oil refining and an increase in the depth of its refining, however, not all industry problems have been resolved.

There are certain disproportions in the activities of the petrochemical sector: physically obsolete production facilities, low level of their use, a small number of innovative products in the product portfolio of enterprises, backwardness of technologies from the world level. Thus, the degree of depreciation of fixed production assets in 2011 in general for chemical production exceeded 46%. For certain types of equipment, the degree of wear has reached 80–100%. The service life of a significant part of it is 20 years or more. Naturally, due to outdated resource-intensive technologies, the production of Russian petrochemical enterprises has a higher cost in comparison with the majority of modern high-tech enterprises operating and under construction around the world.

Over the past few years, the situation in oil refining has improved.

The reorientation of Russian exports from hydrocarbon raw materials to finished products of oil refining and petrochemistry is a priority task set by the government of the Russian Federation. Under these conditions, the development of petrochemistry becomes extremely necessary. To justify the directions of innovative development of the enterprise, there are many methods and technologies, but none of them is adapted to the industry specifics of petrochemistry.

One of the possible tools for substantiating strategic management decisions in the field of innovative development of a petrochemical enterprise can be the hierarchy analysis method developed by T. Saaty.

The essence of the hierarchy analysis method (HAI), disclosed in sufficient detail in the works, comes down to the decomposition of the strategic plan (problem, task) into simpler constituent parts and processing the judgments of the decision maker. As a result, the relative importance of the studied strategic alternatives for all criteria in the hierarchy is determined. Relative importance is quantified as a vector of priorities. The values ​​of the vectors obtained in this way are estimates on the scale of ratios and correspond to the so-called hard estimates. In a formalized form, the essence of the method is revealed in Fig. one.

The use of the MAI to select strategic alternatives for the innovative development of a petrochemical enterprise implies the following stages:

  1. Definition of a global strategic goal.
  2. Building a hierarchy: from the top (goal) through intermediate levels (criteria) to the lower level of alternatives.
  3. Construction of a set of matrices of pairwise comparisons. The matrix is ​​built for the global goal and for each of the elements of the intermediate levels.
  4. Calculation of eigenvectors and additional values ​​for each of the pairwise comparison matrices.
  5. Hierarchical synthesis of estimates to obtain the desired weights.

Building a multi-level hierarchy to achieve the global strategic intent of petrochemical enterprises is a rather complex and time-consuming process. Petrochemical enterprises are complex production systems, the elements of which must be taken into account when building a hierarchy and at the same time not to violate logical, production and functional relationships. A variant of the hierarchy for ensuring the innovative development of a petrochemical enterprise is shown in fig. 2.

Rice. 1. Essence of the hierarchy analysis method


Rice. 2.Hierarchy of ensuring innovative development of a petrochemical enterprise


To ensure the long-term development of a petrochemical enterprise, such target tasks as maximizing the value of the business, increasing the growth rate of innovative activity, increasing EBITDA , reducing the cost of target products, increasing the balance of the product portfolio, increasing the index of technological complexity.

The achievement of each target can be ensured through the implementation of certain basic strategies of the enterprise. The advantage of the hierarchical representation of the problem being solved due to the flexibility of hierarchies allows them to be modified if necessary. So the hierarchy presented in Fig. 1 can be transformed into two options:

Option 1: into the hierarchy for choosing the option of the basic strategy, the implementation of which will ensure the innovative development of the petrochemical enterprise (Fig. 3)


Rice. 3. Hierarchy transformation option 1

Option 2: into the hierarchy to select the type of innovation (or their combination), which will primarily ensure the achievement of target tasks and the corresponding long-term innovative development of the petrochemical enterprise (Fig. 4).

After the stage of constructing hierarchies is completed, the matrices of paired comparisons are constructed and the corresponding vectors and quantities are calculated

Rice. 4. Hierarchy transformation option 2

In the literature, the issues of implementing these stages are disclosed in sufficient detail. The method itself from the point of view of calculations is quite laborious and time-consuming.

A fragment of the construction of matrices according to the first and second variants of the transformed hierarchies is disclosed in the work.

When forming the first matrix of paired comparisons, it is necessary to obtain the opinion of experts as to which target task to a greater extent will ensure the long-term development of the petrochemical enterprise, i.e. is analyzed at the highest level of the hierarchy. Further, the lower level of the hierarchy is included in the analysis, the first component of which is “Maximizing the value of the business”.

The value of a business is a quantitative indicator that allows you to draw a conclusion about the effectiveness of the functioning of a particular enterprise. Therefore, when forming the second matrix of paired comparisons, it is advisable for experts to answer the question: “What is the basic strategy for the enterprise that will increase the value of the business due to the innovative component?”.

Experts consistently answer questions about which basic strategy for an enterprise to a greater extent ensures the growth rate of innovation activity, growth EBITDA , reducing the cost of target products, increasing the balance of the product portfolio, increasing the index of technological complexity.

Nelson Technological Complexity Index ( SPI ) indicates not only the intensity of investment or the value index of a plant, but also its value-added potential. Thus, the higher the Nelson index, the higher the cost of the refinery and the higher the quality and level of its products. The maximum value is 10. At the beginning of the 2000s, American plants had indicators in this regard of approximately 9.5, European - 6.5. The Nelson Index of Lukoil refineries as a result of the reforms should average 8.8 points, which will make it possible to produce twice as much high-quality motor fuels from the same volume of refined oil.

The values ​​of the Nelson Index for the bulk of Russian refineries are below the average value of this indicator in the world (4.4 vs. 6.7) (Table 1). The maximum index of Russian refineries is about 8, the minimum is about 2, which is associated with a low depth of oil refining, an insufficient level of quality of oil products and technically obsolete equipment.

Table 1

Nelson index at refineries in Russia

Oil company

Company

Nelson index

OAO Bashneftekhim (AFK Sistema)

Ufaneftekhim

Ufa refinery

Novo-Ufimsky Refinery

OAO LUKOIL

Permnefteorgsintez

6,89

Volgograd oil refining

5,44

Nizhny Novgorodnefteorgsintez

3,28

Ukhta oil refining

2,91

OO TNK-BP

Ryazan NPK

5,27

Saratov Refinery

3,99

OAO Gazprom Neft

YANOS

5,13

Omsk Refinery

5,07

Moscow refinery

4,67

OAO NK ROSNEFT

Novokuibyshevsk Refinery

4,82

Kuibyshev Refinery

Angarskaya petrochemical complex

4,55

Syzran refinery

4,41

Achinsk refinery

2,84

Komsomolsk Refinery

1,91

Tuapse refinery

1,21

JSC "Surugtneftegaz"

Kirishinefteorgsintez

2,72

The hierarchical synthesis of the estimates obtained in the payoff matrices at the final stage of the method will make it possible to obtain weight coefficients that indicate the priority basic strategy for the first version of the hierarchy (Fig. 2), the implementation of which will allow the petrochemical enterprise to ensure long-term innovative development. For the second version of the hierarchy, the final stage will make it possible to rank, based on the significance obtained, possible options for innovative solutions, the implementation of which will also provide an innovative vector for the development of petrochemical enterprises.

Bibliographic list:

  1. Andreichikov A.V., Andreichikova O.N. Analysis, synthesis, planning of decisions in the economy. - M.: Finance and statistics, 2000. - 368s. Zuev A. Waiting for change. URL : http :// www . cdu . ru / catalog / mintop / infograf /4/ (date of treatment 02.03.15)
  2. Lenkova O.V., Deberdieva E.M. Innovative development of a petrochemical enterprise. - scientific publication / O.V. Lenkova, E.M. Deberdiev. - Tyumen: Tsogu, 2015.
  3. Osinovskaya I.V., Lenkova O.V. The technology of choosing strategic alternatives for the innovative development of a petrochemical enterprise // Economics and Entrepreneurship. - No. 4 (part 1), 2015. - 745-748 pp.
  4. Plenkina V.V. Strategic planning: a textbook for undergraduates studying under the master's program of direction 080500 "Management" / V. V. Plenkina, G. A. Chistyakova, O. V. Lenkova; Federal Agency for Education, State. educational institution of higher education prof. Education "Tyumen State Oil and Gas University". Tyumen, 2010.
  5. Plenkina V.V., Andronova I.V., Osinovskaya I.V. Management decisions. - Tyumen: Tsogu, 2009. - 160 p. URL : http://burneft.ru/archive/issues/2011-05/2 (Date of treatment 20.08.14)

Table 33

The complexity of oil refining according to the Nelson index

Capacity thousand tons/year

Proportion max.

Nelson index

Difficulty of processing

atmospheric distillation

vacuum distillation

catalytic cracking

Hydrocracking

Delayed coking

catalytic reforming

Hydrotreatment of diesel fuel

Isomerization

Sulfur production

Bitumen production

Alkylation

Gas fractionation

Toluene production

Benzene production

Xylene production

  1. Comparative characteristics

One of the important indicators characterizing the level of the technical condition of the enterprise is the refinery complexity factor, developed by Nelson, which has gained recognition in world practice. The Nelson Complexity Index for North American refineries is 10.16, for Europe it is 7.42, and the world average is 6.59. The index of Russian refineries in Russia as a whole is 4.31.

The depth of crude oil refining in developed countries is much higher than in Russia. Thus, in the US, the depth of oil refining is 94%, in the European Union - 84%. The average world level is 75-77%, which is also higher than in Russia. From the data obtained, it can be concluded that the modernization of the oil refining industry had a very low pace.

At present, the Russian Federation has the largest refinery capacity compared to developed countries (RF - 11 million tons / year, the European Union - 6.2 million tons / year, the USA - 4.5 million tons / year). However, at the same time, the use of capacities is much lower than in the countries of the European Union and the United States (capacity utilization in the Russian Federation is 57–65%, the European Union is 92–98%, and the United States is 92–98%).

Table 34

Comparative characteristics

    The resulting level of difficulty is higher than the world average, but lower than in the United States.

    The depth of processing is higher than the world average.

  1. Conclusion

When processing Samotlor oil according to the fuel and petrochemical option with deep processing, the following products can be obtained as target products:

Automobile gasoline;

Diesel fuel;

Petrochemical products.

The scheme includes the most advanced catalytic cracking and catalytic reforming units, an alkylation unit on a solid catalyst, hydrodewaxing, which improve the quality of commercial gasoline and diesel fuel while optimizing their production costs, as well as the modern Catofin gas processing process.

By-products of production will be:

Elemental sulfur used in the production of sulfuric acid, dyes, matches, as a vulcanizing agent in the rubber industry, in the production of bitumen, etc.;

bitumen road and construction;

"Glass" - Application. Optical glass - used for the manufacture of lenses, prisms, cuvettes, etc. K). Glass. Ordinary window glass has 0.97 W/(m. There is evidence that tellurium and oxygen can vitrify. Quartz glass. Some borate glasses are of interest to optotechnics.

"Geography of the chemical industry" - The composition of the industry. Geography of the chemical industry. In the era of scientific and technological revolution, production continues to grow in the lower floors of the chemical industry, producing sulfuric acid, mineral fertilizers, and various pesticides. Chemical industry. Growth rates of the chemical industry of the world.

"Glass production" - Na2CO3 + SiO2=Na2SiO3+ CO2 CaCO3+ SiO2= CaSiO3+ CO2. At the stage of silicate formation, thermal decomposition of the components occurs, with the formation of silicates. The beginning of industrial glass production in Russia dates back to the first half of the 17th century. The most common system is Na2O-CaO-SiO2-MgO-Al2O3. Glass.

"Glass constructions" - Example: STOPSOL SUPERSILVER GRAY 6 mm. Radiation. Heat-saving glass. EA 49. 29. Gender 9%. Energy efficient windows are an untapped savings potential in construction. DET. SF. Roof 24%.

"Chemical Technology" - Reasons for the low level of GNP. Chemical technology as a subject of study. Conclusion 1. Methodology for calculating the depth of oil refining. Chem. Lecture number 1. Increasing the depth of processing of hydrocarbon raw materials. Integrated indicators of oil refining. Modern problems of chemical technology.

"Chemical production" - Mechanization and automation of production. Circulation, creation of related industries (for waste processing). Chemical production. The use of water in the chemical industry. 1. Creation of optimal conditions for chemical. reactions. Chemistry in the life of society. 2. Full and comprehensive use of raw materials.

Concentration is expressed in the creation and development of large industries and enterprises, in the concentration of most of the products of each industry in specialized enterprises. The concentration of production creates opportunities for a more efficient use of modern high-performance technology and a steady increase in the productivity of social labor.

Two interrelated concepts should be distinguished: the concentration of production and the centralization of management.

When considering problems concentration of production in practice, as a rule, the concept of "size of enterprises" is used.

The level of concentration of production (at any level) is most accurately characterized by absolute indicators of the volume of output.

When planning and analyzing concentration processes in industry, groupings of associations and enterprises are usually used according to the volume of products (commodity, sold), the number of workers or employees, the cost of fixed assets, and electricity consumption. These groupings can only be used in a general analysis of the concentration of production. For a more detailed analysis, groupings are used according to the data on the production of similar products in natural or conditionally natural terms.

In each industry or sub-sector that manufactures certain products, the concentration of production depends on the design and technological features of the product. For example, in ferrous metallurgy, the electric power industry, and some other industries, the concentration of production, and, consequently, the size of enterprises, depends on the size of the main units, as well as their number, which ensures the integrated use of all factors of production and management; in mechanical engineering, the textile and footwear industries, the size of production and the concentration of enterprises are determined by the optimal combination of certain complexes of machines and equipment, forms of organization in accordance with the characteristics of production technology.

The main criterion for the effectiveness of concentration in industry is maximum use of factors of production.

Branch features do not allow to establish the optimal sizes of industries and enterprises that are uniform for all industries.

In the extractive industries, the value of the optimal size of production is significantly influenced by natural conditions and the volume of consumption of minerals. Based on the mineral reserves in the deposit, the service life of surface and underground structures (quarries, mines, etc.), consumption volumes, production volumes are also determined, and hence the size of enterprises. So, if the reserves of coal or ore in the deposit and the service life of buildings and structures are limited to 30 years, then the size of the mines or quarries should be calculated for the annual production of 3-3.5% of the total recoverable reliable mineral reserves.



In manufacturing industries with a continuous production process (metallurgy, chemistry, electric power, cement, sugar industry, etc.), the value of the size range of optimal capacities is determined by the unit capacities of modern units - from the smallest to the largest and largest, constructed, as a rule, in combination with other units and service farms. The optimal capacities of individual workshops are determined based on the unit capacities of installed units, and the total capacity of enterprises is determined on the basis of the possibilities for the production of finished (for these enterprises) products.

In manufacturing industries with discrete (discontinuous) production (engineering, woodworking, footwear, textile industries), the optimal production sizes are determined based on a rational set of various machines and equipment, flow and automatic lines, service facilities and other departments necessary to ensure the release of products at minimal labor costs.

The concentration of industrial production is carried out in three main forms:

concentration of specialized production;

concentration of combined industries;

increase in the size of universal enterprises.

The first form is the most effective, ensuring the concentration of homogeneous production at ever larger enterprises, which makes it possible to use high-performance specialized machines, automated and production lines, and modern methods of organizing production.



The second form of concentration is also highly effective, which ensures the sequence of technological processes, the complex processing of raw materials, the use of by-products and waste.

Less effective is the third form, in which the concentration of industries is carried out, which are not interconnected either by the homogeneity and sequence of technological processes, or by the complex processing of raw materials. Enterprises of a universal type unite heterogeneous autonomous and loosely connected industries. In associations and enterprises of the third form of concentration, relatively large-scale production is combined in some shops (main) and small - in others (auxiliary). Insufficient level of specialization, different sizes of combined industries and heterogeneity of products, as well as the complexity of management, do not allow achieving the highest production efficiency.

The concentration of production and its individual forms develop on the basis of the combined influence of two main factors: the growth of demand for certain types of products and technical progress in production. Therefore, at every stage of development the degree of concentration of production should correspond to the size of production and the productivity of equipment. Overconcentration is economically just as undesirable as underconcentration.

Enlargement of the size of enterprises is carried out in industry by increasing the unit capacity of machines and equipment, as well as the size of structures, by increasing the number of identical machines and equipment, as well as by combining them.

In the electric power industry, ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy, cement, some chemical and other industries, an increase in unit capacities is the main factor in the concentration of production and an increase in the size of enterprises based on an increase in the unit capacities of the main units and structures. The growth of unit capacity leads to a decrease in its specific cost and the cost of products manufactured with its help.

In mechanical engineering, light, food and some other industries, technological features exclude the possibility of using machines and units of especially high power. Large-scale production by associations and enterprises in these industries is distinguished not by the unit capacity of units, but by the number of units of machines, equipment, rational organization of production and management.

The creation of high-performance automatic and rotary lines, flexible automated systems, machining centers (as well as for mechanical engineering) is essentially the third way of concentration - joint action of consolidation of aggregates and increase in their number in one enterprise.

The conditions available in large-scale production for a more expedient division of labor within the enterprise contribute to the introduction of high-performance equipment, progressive technology and the organization of production.

Management costs in large enterprises are relatively less than in smaller ones, since they increase disproportionately to the growth of the scale of production.

Under the conditions of a large enterprise, it is economically justified to create design bureaus, laboratories, and pilot plants necessary to ensure technical progress, due to which the costs for these purposes, with large-scale production, are paid off in a short time.

Each industry has its own optimal size of production, providing high technical and economic indicators.

For example, in engineering, the highest output per worker and per unit of fixed production assets is in enterprises with a workforce of 1,001 to 5,000. In larger enterprises, output per worker remains approximately the same, and per unit of funds is even lower.

In weaving mills with 1,000-2,000 looms, the output per machine and the productivity per worker is higher than in factories with more than 5,000 looms.

The increase in the size of enterprises sometimes causes additional costs, which may lead not to a reduction, but to an increase in production costs.

The rational organization of large enterprises is facilitated if some part of the work is shifted to other highly specialized industries, including small ones. With the liberation of large enterprises from functions that are unusual for them (manufacturing of semi-finished products and parts for mass use, performing repair work), their level of specialization and, accordingly, efficiency increases.

There are four forms of concentration of production: aggregate, technological, factory and organizational and economic.

Aggregate concentration is understood as an increase in the power of individual units, the main technological equipment due to the enlargement of the size of individual devices, an increase in the speed of processes (temperature, pressure) or the introduction of new technological processes. This type of concentration is typical for large-scale processes of continuous technology. In the conditions of the processing industries of the oil and gas industry, it is decisive.

A characteristic feature of aggregate concentration is the reduction of capital investments in production per unit of output. This is explained by the fact that with an increase in the power of the main technological equipment, its dimensions and weight, and therefore the cost, increase to a lesser extent than the power. The dependence of capital investments on the unit capacity of the installation can be expressed by the Lenz formula (also the Nelson formula). This formula is used to calculate capital investments for objects of different capacity (productivity) based on one or more objects - analogues with a known amount of capital investments.

where K 1 and K 2 are capital investments for the construction of similar installations of various capacities, thousand rubles; M 1 and M 2 - the power of the compared installations, nature. units/year; n is an indicator that characterizes the dependence of capital investments on the capacity of the installation.

The indicator n sets the limits of the effective aggregate concentration within one technology. Depending on the characteristics of technological processes, the value of n can vary from 0.50 to 0.95 for individual oil refining and petrochemical industries.

Table 1

Deep dewaxing 0,50
Olefin production, catalytic reforming, thermal cracking, sulfuric acid alkylation, selectoforming 0,60
Production of butadiene and isoprene 0,67
Atmospheric vacuum tubing, catalytic cracking, hydrogen production, oil refining 0,70
Ethylene production 0,71
Ammonia production 0,72
Production of aromatic hydrocarbons (extraction), isomerization of gasoline fractions, gas fractionation, hydrotreating of diesel fuels 0,80
PVC production 0,88
Coking 0,90
Polyethylene production 0,95

The use of this formula makes it possible to take into account the "scale effect" that occurs during the construction of objects of different productivity. The scale effect is expressed in the fact that each next unit increment in the productivity of one object will cost less than the previous unit increment.

The main regulating factor of economies of scale in the Lenz formula is the performance scaling factor n - the higher it is, the less the effect of economies of scale and vice versa.

This method gives a rough estimate sufficient to assess the economic effect of a large project. However, current trends in project competitions and the need to make strategic decisions on the selection of projects with similar performance indicators dictate more stringent requirements for the accuracy of the CAPEX assessment.

To meet the need for a more accurate assessment of the cost of capital investments, it is proposed to apply two approaches.

The first approach is to use the Monte Carlo method, namely the decomposition of the construction object into certain "cubes" - groups of small objects or small objects separately in order to reduce the estimation error. The more detailed the decomposition is, the more accurate the estimate will be.

The second approach is to grade the expert scaling factor. The more detailed the decomposition is, the greater the difference will be observed in the scaling factors for each of the groups of objects. Such a gradation is due to the specifics of the groups (main technological installations / auxiliary facilities; complex equipment / buildings (structures), etc.), as well as climatic and geological features (construction on permafrost / sandy soils; open / closed design, etc. .).

The detail of decomposition is determined separately for solving a specific problem. In practice, work can be carried out to decompose the object being assessed into a list of alleged title objects. Each small object can be defined by the main functional performance indicator, which is correlated with a similar object. With this approach, a sufficient amount of design or working documentation for such facilities is required, which can significantly reduce the error in determining the amount of capital investments.

A complete list of all objects with detailed characteristics can only be determined during the development of working documentation, the resulting indicator of which is a summary estimate.

Example. Capital investments for the construction of a gas fractionation plant with a capacity of 453.5 thousand tons per year amount to 40.5 million US dollars. Determine the cost of building a similar plant with a capacity of 403.0 thousand tons per year.

Million US dollars

An important advantage of aggregate concentration is also the relative decrease in the number of key workers.

Technological concentration- this is an increase in the capacity of sites, workshops or industries. In this case, both an intensive path is possible - due to the enlargement of the capacities of individual units and equipment (aggregate concentration), and an extensive one - due to a mechanical increase in the number of equipment, production lines and sections. factory concentration- this is an increase in the capacity of individual enterprises, which can also be both intensive and extensive.

With technological or factory concentration, a reduction in capital costs per unit of power also occurs, but to a lesser extent. The main reason for the decrease in specific capital investments in this case is that an increase in the size of the main production does not entail the same expansion of the auxiliary economy (repair service, transport economy). An important advantage of technological and factory concentration is also the relative decrease in the number of support personnel.

Organizational and economic concentration- a kind of factory concentration - is the administrative and economic support of several enterprises of the association. The association may include industrial enterprises, research and design institutes, pilot plants, etc. The main advantage of organizational and economic concentration is the centralization of management bodies, an increase in the concentration of capital.

The indicators that determine the level of the overall concentration of processing industries are characterized by a system of absolute (natural and cost) and relative indicators. In particular, the aggregate and technological concentration are characterized by the share of plants or production lines of a certain capacity in the total number of plants of this type. With regard to the factory concentration, the following indicators are used:

The volume of production of marketable products in wholesale prices of the enterprise;

The cost of fixed assets of the enterprise or their active part;

Number of industrial and production personnel;

One of the main ways to improve the technical level of production in the oil and gas industry, improve their technical and economic indicators is the construction of high-capacity units. They provide the following benefits:

Decrease in capital investments for the production of a unit of output;

Reducing the cost of production;

Growth in labor productivity;

The best organization of production.

However, the concentration of production has a number of disadvantages.

1. The construction of large production facilities requires significant one-time capital investments. Construction time increases, which leads to the death of capital.

2. The distance to suppliers of raw materials and fuel, consumers of finished products is increasing - there is an increase in transportation costs.

3. The need for labor is growing. Part of the workers is attracted from outside, which creates an additional need for housing, social and cultural facilities.

4. The ecological situation in the region is deteriorating.

Nelson Index and Complexity Factor (Rating) Refinery

In world design and research practice, the refinery complexity factor is widely used, which is based on the use of Nelson indices.

The Nelson Index is the ratio of the unit cost of building a unit for any refinery process to the unit cost of a primary oil refinery unit.

Such coefficients were substantiated and calculated back in the 1960s.

Nelson. They are called Nelson indices. Complexity coefficients constitute the basic element of the methodology developed by V. Nelson for assessing the complexity of refineries. Based on the Nelson indices and the shares of individual processes calculated in relation to the capacity of the primary oil refining, the complexity rating of the refinery is determined. It is formed as the sum of the products of the complexity coefficients of each process in the refinery and the share of this process. In essence, this is the relative weighted average capital intensity of oil refining at a plant with a given technological scheme. The values ​​of the Nelson indices averaged for the elimination of random factors for various oil refining processes are given in the work:

Table 4

Nelson Nelson Index

Direct distillation of oil

Vacuum distillation of oil

thermal processes,

including:

thermal cracking, visbreaking

delayed coking

catalytic processes,

including:

reforming

hydrocracking

hydrotreatment

hydrotreating

Alkylation, polymerization

Isomerization, production of aromatic hydrocarbons

Oil production

Bitumen production

Hydrogen production

Production of oxygenates (MTBE, TAME)

Nelson indices and refinery complexity ratings are convenient for rapid assessment of the necessary investments in the construction of conversion units and for the examination of the feasibility study of new construction and reconstruction projects. But these indicators have a feature due to their relatively narrow purpose: they characterize the degree of complexity of the technological structure of the refinery from the cost side (in terms of capital intensity). This is not a disadvantage, but a specific function of these indicators. No other analytic properties can be extracted from them.

For a complete assessment of the degree of perfection of the technological structure of refineries from an economic standpoint, indicators of the depth of oil refining, Nelson indices and complexity ratings turn out to be insufficient, for all their independent value. It is known that one or another depth of oil refining and the corresponding complexity rating can be achieved by completely different technological means.

Table 4

Refinery units

Process share

Nelson index

AVT installation

catalytic reforming

catalytic isomerization

HFC saturated hydrocarbons

Hydrotreatment of diesel fractions

Catalytic cracking with pretreatment of raw materials

Hydro cleaning unit

Catalytic Cracking Unit

Coking plant

Bitumen production

HFC unsaturated gases

Alkylation of the butane-butylene fraction with isobutane

Sulfur plant

Hydrogen production

A significant inconvenience when working with this indicator is the lack of Nelson index data for some of the processes available in the designed plant. You can go several ways:

Ignore these processes, assuming that they perform an auxiliary function of preparing feedstock for other processes (for example, HFCs for alkylation),

Equate indices “in meaning” - taking into account the technological similarity of processes (for example, HFCs, as a process based solely on the physical separation of fractions, equalize with direct distillation);

Consider the cost of objects according to data, for example, on the Internet and calculate the corresponding indices.

To simplify the procedure, we have so far limited ourselves to the first option.