What is cold spring? Why does a cold spring not cancel global warming? SP: Why did it happen?

In the Volga Federal District on April 20-21, heavy precipitation is observed in the north of the district. Wet snow sticking, ice, snowstorm, gusty wind, night frosts are predicted in the coming days in the Krasnodar Territory, in Novorossiysk all services are on high alert. Snow with rain and strong winds are expected in Kalmykia, Rostov, Volgograd, Astrakhan regions. “If you go to the forest for snowdrops, don’t pour more April!” people joke. And the countries of Europe and St. Petersburg were completely covered with snow. Where does the snow suddenly come from at the end of April? What's going on with the weather? The Free Press addressed this question to climatologist Anatoly Sudakov, deputy chairman of the Volgograd branch of the Russian Geographical Society.

"SP": - In recent days, after a long warm weather in March and the first half of April, an evil winter has returned to many European countries with cold gusty winds and snow storms. What is the reason for such unexpected weather excesses?

- Usually in the first half of April, a cold snap occurs or continues after the March warming. At the same time, a series of cyclones emerge from the North Atlantic, carrying, sometimes up to the Caspian Sea, cold, moist air and bringing cloudy, cold weather with freezing showers or prolonged drizzling rain. Between the exits of two successive cyclones, the weather improves, but after two or three days a new cyclone again brings lead clouds, pouring cold rain, often interspersed with snow. As a rule, the situation stabilizes only in the third decade of April.

This year, April cannot be called typical, because the average long-term course of monthly temperatures was significantly disrupted in March, which was exceptionally warm throughout the Russian Federation. So, in St. Petersburg, it exceeded the average multi-year norm for March by 2.2 °С, in Moscow by 3.4 °С, in Cheboksary by 2.8 °С, in Tambov by 4.4 °С, in Yelets by 4 .6 °С. Especially noticeable was the excess of average monthly temperatures in March, compared with the norm, in the northern regions and on the coast of the Arctic Ocean: in Khanty-Mansiysk by 4.8 °C, in Oymyakon (cold pole of the Northern Hemisphere) by 6.0 °C, by Cape Chelyuskin (the northernmost point of Eurasia) by 8.3 °C, in Salekhard by 10.2 °C, and in Tiksi by as much as 12.9 °C!

SP: Why did it happen?

- In March, the Arctic Ocean was significantly overheated, the Arctic atmospheric front moved 500-600 km to the pole, and the Polar atmospheric front moved closer to the middle of the Russian Plain. Europe was invaded by warm tropical air masses that determined the weather in it and in parts of southern Siberia for two months, starting in mid-February. Untypically warm air for the Arctic also came from the north to Russian territory. The last significant frosts that occurred before the real cold snap hit northwestern Russia at the beginning of the second decade of February; and then anomalous warming covered the entire territory of the country.

"SP": - Is there a connection between global warming and overheating of the Arctic?

- In my opinion, it is obvious. Observations show that over the past 50 years, the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean has tripled, and this is precisely the direct result of the overheating of the atmosphere.

"SP": - Why does an abnormally warm winter happen far from every year, because global warming, according to supporters of this theory, has been going on for a century and a half?

- The thermal energy of the superheated atmosphere is accumulated in the zones of cyclogenesis. The warmer the waters of the Gulf Stream, the most powerful warm current in the World Ocean, the more often cyclones occur and the more likely they are to reach hurricane strength. Due to the rotation of the Earth from east to west, these atmospheric formations move from west to east, with a slight (20−30°) deviation to the north. Cloudy and rainy weather, colder in summer and warmer in spring compared to the weather of the previous period, is brought to the Russian Plain by cyclones of the North Atlantic passing over Europe. At the same time, the excess thermal energy of the atmosphere is converted into the kinetic energy of the wind, which dissipates in space, sometimes causing significant damage. Under such a scenario, late winter and early spring warming does not occur in Europe.

However, this year a different scenario has been realized. A massive and prolonged invasion of tropical air has led to the formation of a stable area of ​​high pressure over Scandinavia and the Baltics, the so-called blocking anticyclone, and numerous anticyclones within continental Europe. Being unable to overcome this obstacle, the Atlantic cyclones were forced to bypass it, skirting the European coast from the west through the Norwegian and Barents Seas. Cyclones continuously emerging over the overheated Atlantic "pushed" their older counterparts along the northern coast of Eurasia right up to Chukotka, where the air temperature exceeded the norm by 10-13 °C. As a result, two waves of heat, from the south and from the north, warmed up the territory of Foreign Europe and Russia.

"SP": - And then suddenly the situation in Europe has changed dramatically. Why?

— The blocking anticyclone over the northeast of Eurasia has aged and disintegrated. Other anticyclone formations on the territory of Eurasia also ceased to exist (in particular, the Lower Volga anticyclone), which prevented the advancement of Atlantic cyclones deep into Eurasia. A powerful continental cyclone has formed over the Middle Volga region with its center approximately over Kazan. In such a baric formation, the movement of air occurs counterclockwise. As a result, it brings colder Arctic air to the southeast of Eurasia. A compact cyclone with a diameter of approx. 650 km from the Mediterranean, promising weather disasters associated with collisions of large masses of cold and warm air with each other.

« SP: — That is, one cyclone brought snow to Europe and St. Petersburg, and another cyclone brought cold to the South of Russia?

- In Europe, the cooling is due to the massive exit of the Atlantic cyclones, which will now again move along their usual route. In the meantime, a huge cyclonic whirlwind is gaining strength in the Norwegian Sea, from the side of the Barents Sea there is a deep invasion of Arctic air deep into the mainland up to the Lower Volga region. However, in the Asian part of Russia, abnormally warm weather persists. And there are no prerequisites for a significant cooling in this part of Russia.

Thus, the sharp April cooling observed in the northern hemisphere is not universal and does not cancel long-term trends in global climate change. At the same time, global warming itself manifests itself unevenly both in space and time and does not necessarily mean an increase in the annual increase in temperature during each month throughout the Earth.

"SP": - What will May be like?

- You should not count on a too warm May this year after a two-month warming in February-April. But the increase in the contrast of weather and climate, the increase in weather anomalies, dangerous weather and climate phenomena will continue.

A sharp cold snap and snowfalls enveloped the countries of Western and Eastern Europe. So, on April 13, heavy snow with the wind hit St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region. On the eve of snowfalls were observed in Germany, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Austria and Switzerland. Also, cold snaps and snow spread to other regions of Russia.

However, on April 15 in Vladivostok (it is located in the Far East of Russia, far from Europe), on the contrary, there was an abnormal warming. The temperature record was broken - the thermometers rose here to +21.5 degrees. Until that moment, April 15, 1947 was considered the warmest in decades of observations, when the temperature was 3.6 degrees lower.

The streets of German, Czech, Polish, Hungarian cities were covered with snow again. There again formed snowdrifts of impressive size. This is confirmed, for example, by snowfall in the suburbs of Budapest.

It didn’t just snow here: the surroundings of the Hungarian capital were covered with snow. The official account of the Hungaroring (Formula 1 circuit, in the city of Modyorod) published a video showing the extent of the weather anomaly.

Also, weather forecaster Natalya Didenko commented on her Facebook page that snow was flying around Warsaw, confirming what was said in the post with a photograph.

Arctic cold and snowfalls have not bypassed our country either. Snow blankets covered the Dnieper, Kharkiv, Zaporozhye, Poltava and other cities of Ukraine.

It is noteworthy that such a cold, and even more snowfall, has not yet happened two weeks before the May holidays. That is why the April snowfall can be called an anomalous phenomenon.

Causes of the April "apocalypse"

Forecasters complain about the cyclone, which led to corresponding changes in the climate of our country and throughout Western and Eastern Europe. A cyclone approached from the Black Sea, which after Easter brought a serious cold snap with precipitation and night frosts for the working week.

“Although the cyclone is from the south, the air is so cool that the wet mass from the Black Sea, having come to the cold territory, will give snow. According to the forecast, Dnipropetrovsk region is the most in the bad weather zone,” Didenko explained.

The hydrometeorological center reported that on the night of Thursday, April 20, frosts and sub-zero temperatures are expected throughout the country at night and in the morning. Everything is explained by the fact that another powerful Arctic cyclone has come to Ukraine, due to which temperatures will drop in all corners of the country.

“One cyclone has come, and now the next one will still be. So the weather remains difficult for now. Snow will still be associated with today’s cyclone in the east. will weaken and stop. But from the south-west, a new cyclone will affect the weather of the Carpathian region, the Odessa region, and then spread to the southern and central regions. There will again be snow in the central regions. Especially heavy snowfalls will be. That is, the same situation that was before And in general, cold weather will continue in Ukraine,” said Lyudmila Savchenko, head of the meteorological forecasting department of the Ukrhydrometeorological center.

It is reported that over the next five days in Ukraine predict a new cooling. Frosts are expected in the western and northern regions.

In Kyiv, without precipitation, only on Saturday and Sunday it will rain in the capital, and sleet can fly by on Saturday night. Interestingly, according to the Central Geophysical Observatory in Kyiv on April 18, the highest temperature during the day was 25.1 ° in 1920, and the lowest at night was -4.7 ° in 1895.

When can we expect warmer temperatures?

According to the forecasts of official forecasters and folk forecasters, real warming and heat will come only by the May holidays. Forecaster Natalya Didenko, in turn, said that in Ukraine the cold weather will last until April 22-23. Frosts at night, during the day - barely above zero.

Photo: Victoria Simonenko

"Warming is likely from April 23-24.But the nights will still be cold", the forecaster said.

The head of the department of meteorological forecasts of the Ukrhydrometcentre, Lyudmila Savchenko, said that a slight warming in Ukraine is possible on April 22-23.

What did the April frosts and snowfalls lead to in Ukraine?

Snowfalls not only spoiled the mood of most citizens of the country, but also led to more serious consequences. Thus, the Minister of Infrastructure Vladimir Omelyan said that seven people had already died due to abnormal weather conditions and violation of traffic rules in the afternoon of Wednesday April 19. Even more injured.

In six regions of Ukraine, 152 settlements were left without electricity. Zaporozhye, Dnipro, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv regions were covered by the heaviest snowfalls, which led to transport collapses. In the wake of a sharp cold snap, the authorities of Lviv, Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kremenchug decided to resume heating.

Schools in Nikolaev, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv regions have suspended the educational process due to a sharp cold snap.

In Kyiv, despite the cold snap, no decisions were made to stop classes. Local authorities also do not intend to resume the heating season.

The cold snap and snowfall also led to the suspension of several airports at once. So, in Kharkiv, due to bad weather, the airport cancels and reschedules flights. Due to the snow collapse, the local airport in Dnipro was forced to suspend its work: trees fell in several places in the city, power lines were cut. Also, at the capital's Boryspil airport, they have already reported that flights from Kharkiv and Dnipro are canceled or rescheduled due to snowfall.

Climatic changes with the Arctic cyclone will have a direct proportional effect on plants. Vladimir Kvasha, a researcher at the Nikolai Grishko National Botanical Garden, commented on how the cold will hit the crop.

“First of all, frosts threaten flowering trees - cherries and apricots. The latter is just more thermophilic. Therefore, there is more risk for it. The problem is that there is no pollination of trees, the bees have hidden. harvest," said the researcher of the botanical garden.

All news about a sharp cold snap, snowfall in Ukraine.

It’s downright scary to write about the weather now - suddenly you’ll scare away the summer. But very interesting things are told to journalists by climatologist, expert on extreme precipitation, senior researcher at the Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences and professor of the Alpine University of Grenoble (France) Olga Zolina.

The fact that man got into the climate system is a proven fact, this is indicated by the results summarized in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. And we cannot do anything about it, because it is impossible to take and stop the industry. And this leads to atypical behavior of the climate system, which often surprises us, because it is very different from what we are used to. There is no doubt that there will be more and more such "strange" weather manifestations.

Now the climate is changing, and we have - and this is an obvious fact - a widespread increase in temperature. And when the climate system is out of balance, all the components of this system begin to behave differently. By the way, in Russia, the duration of drought and periods with extreme precipitation is simultaneously increasing, which indicates a general increase in the extremeness of the climate.

Academician Obukhov called this the nervousness of the climate: unbalance one component, and the rest followed. As temperatures rise, the evaporation of moisture from the ocean surface increases, and the atmosphere can hold more water vapor. Climate warming is associated with a change in the movement of cyclones, now they bring more moisture and penetrate deeper to the north. This is what we are seeing in Moscow - the exit of the cyclone, which brought a lot of moisture. The conditions were such that he was able to bring this moisture to Moscow and quickly and powerfully pour it out. The combination of these conditions is becoming more and more frequent, and the average rainfall is increasing in many areas.

Russia is expected to increase extreme precipitation by 3-4% per decade. Climate models predict a strong increase in precipitation in the Arctic. In the Central region, an increase is already being observed, but it will be most powerful in Siberia, Transbaikalia and the Far East, as well as in the mountains. In addition to the values ​​of extreme precipitation, the overall intensity and their duration also increase.

Lately we've been having a shift in seasons- spring comes later, summer becomes shorter. And there is such a bad forecast, that we can come to a climate of eternal spring or autumn, as you like, with rain and cloudy weather, without separation of the seasons.

Eternal autumn is one of the theoretical possibilities which can be realized in connection with global warming. However, in order to obtain long-term climate forecasts, it is necessary to choose a scenario for how the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will change. There are several approximate scenarios - pessimistic, that is, a very strong increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases, the way things are going now, and optimistic, that is, a sharp reduction in emissions. The main "suppliers" of greenhouse gases are developing countries, which have a lot of other problems and climate change is far from the first place for them.

But the June returns of cold weather, which we recently observed, do not talk about climate change, they occur, if not every year, then with some frequency, and this is not new. So lined up atmospheric circulation - for a long time acted the so-called cyclonic blocking. A powerful anticyclone with high pressure stood over the Atlantic Ocean, and from the north it was bypassed one after another by cyclones that carried cold, humid air from the Arctic. They walked one thread, and I really wonder why this blocking took so long to break.

The climate, like any other complex natural system, always strives for balance. It has many little-studied mechanisms, the so-called feedbacks (feedback), capable of regulating this system. But over the past hundred years, we have thoroughly climbed into the initially self-regulating climate system, and it no longer has time to work out, to return to a certain balance. As a result, atypical or extreme weather events occur, and there are more and more of them every year.

Most likely, the year will be fruitful

The saying "Cold May is a year of grain" is true, and in this regard, the cold and wet spring months are a favorable phenomenon. This was stated by the head of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia Roman Vilfand, adding that this year the grain harvest is likely to be good.

The meteorologist explains that due to the cold May, the earth is saturated with moisture, which benefits the plants. For the planting and growth of spring and winter crops in most regions of the Asian part of Russia, according to Vilfand, “mostly satisfactory results are expected.

However, on some plants, a cold snap will still not have such a beneficial effect, the specialist specified. Stone fruit crops will suffer from spring frosts - in particular, cold weather will negatively affect the harvest of plums, peaches and apricots in the south of the Krasnodar Territory and Adygea.

At the same time, winter crops, for which untimely frosts can also be harmful, fortunately did not suffer as a result of the cold snap. According to Vilfand, in the south of the European part of Russia, frosts were short-term, and in temperate latitudes and the Central Federal District, these crops by that time had not had time to grow enough to make the weather change dangerous for them.

In general, as the head of the Hydromedical Center of Russia emphasized, cold weather will negatively affect the harvest only in some southern regions of Russia and nowhere else.

Recall, yesterday Roman Vilfand, that Muscovites this year are waiting for the so-called "pink" summer, which is characterized by not too much rainfall and temperatures equal to or slightly above the norm. Meteorologists call summer “pink” because the expected temperatures on their maps correspond to pink.