Snowy winter. Common data. General weather forecast for the winter
The weather forecast for the winter of 2016-2017 in Russia was compiled by the Hydrometeorological Center. It is noted that on average the temperature in most of the country's territory will be near and above the norm, but in February in a number of regions of the Asian part it will be below the norm.
At the same time, it will be colder than usual in the North-Western, Central, Ural federal districts, as well as in most of the Siberian and western Far Eastern federal districts. We emphasize that this is a preliminary weather forecast.
Weather forecast for November 2016
Winter in most of Russia will come in November. In most regions, snow cover will be established and frosts will be observed.
The average monthly air temperature is expected to be above the norm in most of the Northwestern Federal District. November 2016 is expected to be colder than November 2015 in Taimyr and the northern half of Yakutia, according to the forecast of the Hydrometeorological Center.
Weather forecast for December 2016
December will be traditionally frosty and snowy. Above the norm, the average monthly temperature is most likely in the north of the Urals Federal District and in the north of the Krasnoyarsk Territory.
In the Central Federal District, in the south of the Northwestern Federal District, it is expected to be colder than last year.
Also, the weather in the southwestern and southern regions of the Siberian Federal District, as well as in the south of the Krasnoyarsk Territory, will not please with warmth. So Siberians should prepare for frosts.
Weather forecast for January 2017
The preliminary weather forecast for January does not imply any temperature records and anomalies.
Above the norm, the average monthly air temperature is expected in the east of Yakutia, in the northern half of the Khabarovsk Territory and in the Magadan Region.
The average monthly temperature in January 2017 is expected to be higher than in January 2016 in the Murmansk region, in the south of the Krasnoyarsk Territory and in Khakassia.
Lower than in January last year, the temperature is expected in the north of the Krasnoyarsk Territory and in the west of Yakutia.
Weather forecast for February 2017
The last month of winter will bring warming to the western regions of the Northwestern Federal District. In the north-east of Yakutia and Chukotka, the average monthly air temperature is also expected to be above the norm.
It will be colder than usual in the northeast of the Urals Federal District, in most of the Siberian Federal District and in the west of Yakutia.
Also, February is expected to be colder than last year in the European territory of Russia, in the Urals, Siberian federal districts and in the west of Yakutia.
Illustrations from meteoinfo.ru
With each passing day, summer is steadily coming to an end. A little more, and we will move on to autumn, which will be so fleeting that you will not notice. And immediately after it, a long winter will come, with holidays, weekdays and with its own weather. Therefore, many are concerned about a simple but relevant question, what will the winter of 2016-2017 be like in Russia - warm or cold? According to weather forecasts, this winter in Russia is expected next.
Speaking about Russia in general, this winter is expected to be frosty and sunny. There will be a lot of sun, but as you know, in winter it does not warm, but only intensifies the frost. Little rain is expected, but at times there will be a lot of it. There will be days when it will snow for a day or more, and during this time it will fall under a meter of rain. But then the sun will come out again and shine for a week.
What will the weather be like in winter by months.
In December 2016, it will not be so frosty. And from this snow the average value for recent years will fall. The air temperature during the day in December will be -9 -15 degrees, and at night it will be slightly cooler to -19 degrees.
December will often surprise with thaws. So, after the 10th, the temperature is expected to rise to -3 -5 degrees, and in some regions even up to +2 degrees! But this will be up to 20 numbers, and then winter will take its toll: snowdrifts will sweep in and the air will drop to -20 degrees.
Changeable weather is also expected in January 2017. In the first days of the new year, the weather will delight us. The thermometer will stop at -10 degrees, which will allow you to walk outside on New Year's holidays.
After Christmas, frosts will begin to intensify, and by the middle of the month there will be severe frosts up to -33 degrees! Plus, strong winds will blow, which will make the temperature even colder.
At the end of the month, changeable weather and sharp fairy tales of temperature await us. So, at night it can be -30 degrees, and the next day only -12 degrees. Thaws are not excluded in January, especially closer to February, when snow cyclones begin to approach.
February 2016 will sweep and freeze. As always, it is in the last month of winter that more precipitation will fall. And this is not surprising, because the temperature will begin to rise, and therefore it will begin to snow almost every day.
Weather forecast in Moscow for the winter of 2016-2017 according to popular beliefs.
The forecast on this page is an attempt to reconstruct (and test) the ancient method of forecasting the weather for the whole year. This method is mostly based on the assumption that the weather in the next 12 days after the day of St. Spyridon shows what the weather will be like in the twelve months corresponding to them.
When compiling the forecast, weather data for two more days are used, on which in the old days the weather for the winter period was noted - these are Anna Zimoukaznitsa (August 7) and the Intercession of the Most Holy Theotokos (October 14). According to the signs of these days, they also made a descriptive long-term forecast for the whole winter. Oddly enough, the signs of weather indicators for Anna and Pokrov are consistent - they complement each other, but with the signs after the day of Spiridon, they do not always agree ...
Based on the results of the analysis of weather data from past winters, corrections are still being made for "calendar" frosts: Christmas, Epiphany, etc.
The weather forecast for the whole winter 2016-2017 will be made after October 14(Pokrov), the fact is that the signs on Pokrov complement the signs on Anna Winter Pointer (August 7). Bye preliminary it turns out that this winter will be cold at first and probably early.
Cover - Weather signs for Pokrov Den, together with signs for Anna Zimoukaznitsa (7.08), show the general nature of the coming winter in 2016-2017.
Weather forecast for Winter 2016-2017, Moscow
DATA:
08/07/2016 Anna Summer (Winter guide)- On this day, the first "weather" signs of the upcoming winter are determined: "Bright and warm weather portends a cold winter, and if it rains, the winter is snowy and warm" ... In Moscow on August 7 in the early morning it was cloudless, but the haze, though quite warm : 18°C, with sunrise the haze dispersed, by noon clouds appeared, during the day the clouds became denser and in the evening it all ended with a shower. The day turned out to be the hottest day this summer - temperature maximum: 33.6°C
Weather data Moscow(VVC) - Anna Zimoukaznitsa |
|||||||
| Date and time (local) | Character weather |
T (° c) |
Rel. humidity (%) |
Atm. pressure (mm) |
Wind (m/s) |
Siege- ki(mm) |
|
| 21:00 08/07/2016 |
heavy rain shower |
20 | 96 | 746 | SW | 1 | 12.0 mm in 12 hours |
| 18:00 08/07/2016 |
partly cloudy |
31 | 34 | 745 | YU | 1 | - |
| 15:00 08/07/2016 |
partially cloudy |
33 | 30 | 746 | YU | 1 | - |
| 12:00 08/07/2016 |
partly cloudy |
32 | 42 | 748 | SE | 1 | - |
| 9:00 08/07/2016 |
clear |
28 | 56 | 750 | YU | 1 | 0 |
| 6:00 08/07/2016 |
clear, haze |
18 | 96 | 750 | calm | 0 | 0 |
| 3:00 08/07/2016 |
clear, haze |
17 | 91 | 750 | calm | 0 | - |
| 0:00 08/07/2016 |
clear |
19 | 80 | 751 | calm | 0 | - |
Such weather on Anna portends a moderately cold and snowy December at first, which will end with frosts on New Year's Eve, January, it turns out, will also be cold, with frosts, and thaws will begin only in the second half of February and will be accompanied by heavy rainfall.
10/14/2016 Pokrov- On this day, the forecast compiled according to the signs of Anna Winter Pointer is being updated, and only according to the wind direction: "If the wind blows from the north or east, the winter will be cold and snowy; if from the south - the winter is warm, from the west - snowy."
15.10.2016 In Moscow on October 14, a weak northerly wind blew from early morning (to cold weather), only in the afternoon a weak northwest breeze blew (to mild weather with precipitation), which then changed again to the north (to frost, cold):
Weather data Moscow, to the forecast "Winter 2017"- Veil |
|||||||
| Date and time (local) | Character weather |
T (° c) |
Rel. humidity (%) |
Atm. pressure (mm) |
Wind (m/s) |
Siege- ki(mm) |
|
| 21:00 October 14, 2016 |
Mainly cloudy |
4 | 74 | 758 | FROM | 2 | 0.0 mm in 12 hours |
| 18:00 October 14, 2016 |
Mainly cloudy |
5 | 74 | 757 | FROM | 2 | |
| 15:00 October 14, 2016 |
Mainly cloudy |
5 | 75 | 757 | NW | 2 | |
| 12:00 October 14, 2016 |
cloudy with gaps, haze |
4 | 80 | 757 | FROM | 2 | |
| 9:00 October 14, 2016 |
light drizzle |
3 | 90 | 756 | FROM | 2 | 0.0 mm in 12 hours |
| 6:00 October 14, 2016 |
cloudy, hazy |
2 | 89 | 756 | FROM | 2 | |
| 3:00 October 14, 2016 |
Mainly cloudy |
2 | 86 | 756 | FROM | 2 | |
| 0:00 October 14, 2016 |
Mainly cloudy |
2 | 87 | 756 | FROM | 2 | |
Preliminary weather forecast for the winter of 2016-2017
(compiled on 08/15/16)
What will New Year's Eve be like in Moscow?
(compiled on 08/15/16)
For this New Year, you can predict with a probability of 70-75% what New Year's Eve will be in Moscow. If you look at the forecast charts for the end of December and the beginning of January 2016, you can see that the nature of the weather in the next three days before the New Year and after it practically does not change. The very likely Nikolsky frosts will begin to weaken by the New Year, but it will still be quite cold: on New Year's Eve the temperature will range from -8 to -14 ° C, partly cloudy or cloudless, light wind or calm. For those who are going to celebrate the New Year outside the city, it will probably be important to know that New Year's Eve will be dark and moonless (December 29, 2016 - new moon).
Forecast for 2017.
Weather forecast for January 2017, Moscow
15.08.16 In the first ten days of January 2017, the air temperature will be slightly warmer than normal - after the New Year's cold weather, the state of "mild winter, mostly cloudy with clearings, clear weather is possible, so on the eve of the Old New Year in Moscow (Vasilyevsky evening) there will be a "classic New Year's Eve", but by Epiphany, the temperature will traditionally begin to fall, and at the end of January, severe frosts down to -30 ° C are possible.
The presented schedule is based on weather data from January 06, 2016 according to folk signs that determine the weather at the beginning of January 2017.
Chart 01.2017.Msk Forecasted average daily temperature and probability diagram of cloudiness forecast in January 2017, Moscow
According to popular signs for the weather forecast for 2017, it turns out that there will be no more long-term severe frosts this winter.
COMMENT: You should not expect that the actual average daily temperature will exactly repeat the predicted one, if this were the case, then all the meteorological services would be disbanded as unnecessary, and instead of the weather forecast, we would watch an exciting competition, so to speak, "weather forecasting magicians" in struggle for the position of the Court Magician (progress lies in the fact that such a competition takes place on the political field:).
However, if the predicted weather happens within the interval of ± 3 days, then the forecast should be considered justified - this is the current uncertainty interval for such a forecast ...
Weather forecast for February 2017, Moscow
15.08.16. Preliminary: February is frosty at first, with little snow, in the second half it will be unstable with fluctuations from thaw to frost, at this time all the lack of snow will be compensated, or at least the precipitation that is missing up to the norm. A more detailed forecast will be presented after processing the observational data according to the signs of Spiridonov Day.
The weather forecast for January and February is always updated: the first time - after Veil of the Day, the second - after new weather data received from December 26, 2016 to January 6, 2017 are processed.
25.01.2017. Paradoxically, but true! The signs of Spiridon's day fully confirm the preliminary forecast. Only in early February it will not be so frosty, and instead of snow at the end of the month it may rain, but, most likely, nature (or winter?) will still add snow ...
Chart 02.2017.Msk Forecasted average daily temperature and probability diagram for the forecast of cloudiness in February 2017, Moscow
Further weather forecast for 2017 is presented on the page:
Explanations for charts:
Long-term average - the average daily temperature obtained as a result of averaging 30 years of observations (1961-1990).
Average daily forecast T ° C - average daily temperature data obtained as a result of recalculating the actual temperatures measured on the day that shows the weather of a given month (for July - this is 01/01/2012, the nature of the temperature change on this day is just used to make a weather forecast).
Actual daily average, Tmin°C, Tmax°C - respectively, the average daily, minimum and maximum temperatures that actually prevailed on the given day according to the indications of the Hydrometeorological Center.
Overcast, partly cloudy, clear - a diagram showing the probability of cloudy conditions in a given decade of the month, in proportion to the area of the corresponding areas.
The actual weather icons (at the very top) indicate the prevailing weather for that day. For example, if for 14 hours there was cloudy weather and rain, then in the next 3-4 hours the clouds dissipated and the weather was clear for the remaining hours of the day, then the cloudy weather with precipitation icon will be displayed. If different states of cloudiness are distributed in equal proportions in a day, then preference will be given to daytime weather.
Arrows - indicate the prevailing wind direction, if the wind is variable, then the arrows indicate the sectors within which the wind direction changed.
White line with snowflakes - snow depth (1 division of the vertical scale corresponds to snow height - 20 cm)
The rules used in making a weather forecast:
1. To compile a weather forecast, actual weather data from December 26 to January 6 inclusive is used, the marking of months is carried out according to the old style ( Julian calendar).
2. When compiling a weather forecast for a month, the data are interpreted as follows: morning from 10.00 to 13.00 (involving data for 7.00 in the information plan) - correspond to the 1st decade of the month according to the old style (according to the modern calendar from the 14th to the 23rd day of the corresponding month) ; day from 13.00 to 16.00 - 2nd decade; evening from 16.00 to 19.00 (involving data at 22.00 in terms of information) - 3rd decade of the month according to the old style.
Temperature: We use the actual temperature data and their deviation from the average daily temperature of the climatic norm. Before the day of the vernal equinox, we use directly the initial data of temperatures and deviations, after the day of the vernal equinox - inverted data (change "+" to "-" and vice versa, according to the principle "the colder in winter, the warmer in summer"). In addition, we make adjustments to the nature of temperature changes for phenomena that are consistently repeated in terms of signs: For example: Epiphany frosts - we make an adjustment by underestimating the initial data by 2-5 °C.
Cloud nature: The biggest difficulty is the interpretation of the nature of cloudiness - after all, if the weather is cloudy all day, then for the corresponding month it cannot be cloudy all the time. In winter, in this case, predominantly cloudy weather is predicted, and for the summer period, the cloudiness character points are underestimated, i.e. after the day of the vernal equinox, if it is cloudy on the initial day, without rain, then we predict: "mostly partly cloudy".
Precipitation: with precipitation, everything is simple; there is precipitation - it means there will be in the corresponding forecast period, no - it means mostly without precipitation or slight precipitation, depending on the predicted nature of the cloudiness.
Wind speed: if during the initial day there are deviations in wind speed by 3-5 m/s, then there will be windy weather in the corresponding period.
Autumn is still on the calendar, although late, but outside the window is a real winter. With snowfalls, blizzards and lowering of night and morning temperatures to minus 10 degrees. What to expect from winter next, whether it will be the most severe in recent years, or, having survived the November cold, nature will return to normal temperatures.
What winter will be in Russia
Only preliminary forecasts are possible here, which, alas, do not always come true, since there is no proven method for determining the weather for several months in advance. According to meteorologists, despite the November cold, winter in Russia will not differ much from previous years.
December on average in Russia will be quite cold. Average daily temperatures will fluctuate around 10-15 degrees below zero. However, the main cold will come in the second half of the month, and by the New Year it may get warmer again.
January 2017 will be the coldest month of winter. By mid-January, it is worth waiting for real Epiphany frosts, followed by heavy snowfalls. The second half of the month will also be very cold, down to minus 30 degrees, but in the last days of January the frost will subside, giving way to blizzards and snowfalls.
February 2017 promises to be an exemplary winter month. In early February, a slight frost is expected, down to minus 5 degrees, and snowfalls will continue, which will alternate with sunny days. However, by mid-February, frosts will intensify again, and temperatures are expected to drop to minus 17-20 degrees. This weather will last until the end of the month, and in March it will start to warm up.
Winter weather in Moscow
The weather in Moscow, in principle, almost completely corresponds to the all-Russian forecast, except that it will be 2-3 degrees warmer. In general, winter is expected to be moderately cold in the capital. In the first half of December, a light frost with moderate snowfalls is expected, and such weather will last until the end of the month. During the New Year holidays in Moscow, light snowfalls are predicted at a temperature of minus 8-12 degrees.
The second decade of January will be more frosty, and frosts will last until the end of the month, when the air temperature drops to 25-30 degrees below zero. February will bring precipitation and warming to minus 7 degrees, but by the middle of the month it will again get colder to minus 25. Such weather will last until early March.
Winter weather in St. Petersburg
After an abnormally cold and rainy summer, winter in St. Petersburg is expected to be slightly colder than in previous years. As early as November 15, the snowfalls will stop, the temperature will return to positive values and heavy rains will begin, which will melt most of the early snowfall.
The positive temperature with precipitation will remain until mid-December, a moderate frost is expected for the New Year, and real cold will come to the northern capital on Epiphany, that is, by January 19. February promises to be snowy, with snowstorms and temperatures below minus 10 degrees.
Folk omens for autumn and winter
- A bird sits on the roof - to bad weather.
- The crow bathes - to bad weather.
- The crow hides its beak under the wing - to the cold.
- Poultry hides its head under its wing - to the cold.
- Late leaf fall - to a harsh and long winter.
- Mosquitoes appeared in late autumn - by the harsh winter.
- Sparrows scream - to the blizzard.
- The sky above the forest will turn blue - to the heat.
- Evening dawns quickly burn out - to the thaw.
- The trees were covered with frost - to a blizzard.
Winter 2016-2017 in Russia will be frosty, dry and sunny. In December frosts are expected from -5 -11 °C during the day to -11 -20 °C at night. The coldest will be the beginning of the month. A lot of snow will fall in the first quarter of December. In January, the air temperature will drop to -12 -22 °C during the day and -19 -26 °C at night, there will be little precipitation. In the first half of February, severe blizzards and frosts down to -28 °C during the day and down to -32 °C at night are predicted. At the end of the month it will warm up to -8 °C during the day and -14 °C at night, there will be little precipitation.
December 2016
December will be moderately frosty. At the beginning of the month, the average air temperature will range from -10 °C during the day to -18 -20 °C at night. In the first quarter of December, heavy snowfalls are expected, and the temperature will drop by 3-5 degrees. In the middle of the month, the thermometer will show -5 -7 ° C during the day and -11 -13 ° C at night. Light snowfalls are expected at the end of December. The air temperature will be -9 -11 °C during the day and -14 °C at night.
January 2017
Light snow is expected early in the month. The average air temperature will be -12 -14 °C during the day and -19 °C at night. After January 17, it will get 6-7 degrees colder for several days. There will be no big rainfall at the end of the month. The thermometer will show -20 -22 °C during the day and -24 -26 °C at night.
February 2017
Severe frosts are expected in the last month of winter. The thermometer can drop to -26 -28 ° C during the day and up to -32 ° C at night. At the end of February the weather will become milder. Heavy rainfall is not expected. The average air temperature will be -8 -10 °C during the day and -14 -16 °C at night.
What will the weather be like in the winter of 2016-2017 in the regions of Russia
Moscow and Moscow region
The weather in winter in Moscow and the Moscow region is expected to be 2-4 degrees warmer than in the rest of Russia.
December will be cold and snowy. Frosts down to -25 °С are expected. The average air temperature will be -15 -20 °C. In the second half of the month there will be heavy snowfalls. Strong gusts of wind and blizzards are possible in December.
Mild weather is expected in the first half of January. The average air temperature will be -15 -17 °С. Large precipitation is not expected. Strong gusts of wind and snowfalls are possible on January 15-18. After Baptism, “winter will calm down,” and the weather will improve.
In February, the weather will be mild and gentle. The average air temperature during the day will be -5 -10 °C. At night, the thermometer can drop to -20 °C. Heavy rainfall is not expected. Possible sustained winds.
St. Petersburg and Leningrad region
Residents of St. Petersburg and the region expect a mild and warm winter. The average air temperature in December will be from 0 °С to -6 °С at night. In January, the thermometer will show -4 -8 ° C during the day and -12 ° C at night. February will be snowy and not cold - from -6 -8 °С during the day to -8 -10 °С at night.
Ural
Heavy snowfalls are expected in the subpolar and polar Urals. In early December and January, the thermometer will drop to -25 °C. There will be no severe frosts in February.
In the north of the Urals, the average air temperature in the winter of 2016-2017 will be -33 °C. There will be no strong winds. In early February, prolonged snowfalls and warming are expected.
In the Middle Urals, December will be moderately cold and sunny. A slight chill is expected in January. The thermometer will show -15 -24 ° С. In early February, it will warm up to -7 ° C, and in the middle of the month it will get colder, and snowfalls will come.
In the southern part of the Urals, the beginning of December will please with relatively warm weather. On the 20th of the month it will get colder to -8 °С during the day and to -20 °С at night. January will be sunny and with little snow. This weather will continue until mid-February. Then a few cloudy and cold days are predicted. It will get warmer at the end of the month.
Kuban (Krasnodar Territory)
Residents of the Krasnodar Territory expect a mild and warm winter. There will be little rainfall in December. The air temperature will range from -6 °C at night to +5 °C during the day. This weather will continue until mid-January. Then small frosts will alternate with thaws. At the end of the month, heavy snowfalls and icy conditions are possible. The thermometer will show from -12 ° C at night to 0 ° C during the day. In February, frosty weather, heavy and prolonged snowfalls are predicted.
Novosibirsk and Novosibirsk region
Frosty, windy and unstable weather awaits residents of Novosibirsk and the region in winter. The average daytime air temperature in December will be -1 -13 °С, at night -3 -15 °С. There will be little rain until mid-January. After Epiphany, heavy snowfalls are predicted with snowstorms, strong wind gusts and ice. The thermometer in January will drop to -10 -30 ° C during the day and to -38 ° C at night. More severe frosts will come after Christmas. Unstable weather is predicted in February. The air temperature will fluctuate from -45 °C at night to -29 °C during the day. Heavy snowfalls possible.
Siberia
A cold and snowy winter is expected in Siberia. In December, the average air temperature will be -15 °С. There will be little rainfall. On New Year's Eve, heavy snowfalls will begin, and the thermometer will rise to -10 ° C. In the first half of January, frosts down to -20 -25 °С are expected, and in the second half - warming up to -15 °С and heavy rainfall. Winter in February will be snowy and mild. The thermometer will drop below -15 °C.
Volgograd
A cold winter awaits residents of Volgograd and the Volgograd region. In December frosts, snowfalls, blizzards are predicted. The air temperature will fluctuate between -4 °С and -10 °С. In early January, it will get colder. On the 10th of the month, a short thaw will come, which will lead to ice. Then it gets cold again. The air temperature in January will fluctuate between +5 °С and -17 °С. February will bring prolonged snowfalls and blizzards. The air temperature will fluctuate between +1 °С and -21 °С.