Modern trends in world development. Where is humanity going? Trends in the development of the modern world Prices should be affordable for consumers
Briefly characterize modern trends in the development of education :
Humanization of education- consideration of the student's personality as the highest value of society, emphasis on the formation of a citizen with high intellectual, moral and physical qualities. And although the principle of humanization is one of the traditional general didactic principles, at the present stage of development of education, its implementation is ensured by other conditions, first of all, by the complexity of traditional and new trends in the functioning of the educational system.
Individualization as an effort of another traditional didactic principle of the need for an individual approach.
The implementation of this principle is manifested, first of all, in the organization of the personal-activity approach in education. The emergence of such a comprehensive, systematic approach to the upbringing and education of children is due not only to the natural development of pedagogical science, which, like any field of human activity, is characterized by a constant desire for progress, but also to the imminent crisis of the existing education system. A feature of this approach is the consideration of the learning process as a specific form of subject-subject relations between a teacher and a student. The very name of this approach emphasizes the relationship between its two main components: personal and activity.
The personal (or personality-oriented) approach assumes that the student with his individual psychological, age, gender and national characteristics is at the center of learning. Within the framework of this approach, training should be built taking into account the individual characteristics and the "zone of proximal development" of the student. This account is manifested in the content of curricula, forms of organization of the educational process and the nature of communication.
The essence of the activity component is that education contributes to the development of the individual only if it encourages him to activity. The significance of activity and its result affects the effectiveness of a person's mastery of universal culture. When planning educational activities, it is necessary to take into account not only the general characteristics of the activity (objectivity, subjectivity, motivation, purposefulness, awareness), but also its structure (actions, operations) and components (subject, means, methods, product, result).
The allocation of each of the considered components of the personal-activity approach (personal and activity) is conditional, since they are inextricably linked due to the fact that a person always acts as a subject of activity, and activity determines its development as a subject.
Democratization- creation of prerequisites for the development of activity, initiative and creativity of the participants in the educational process (students and teachers), wide involvement of the public in the management of education.
One of the distinguishing features of the modern education system is the transition from state to state-public management of education, the main idea of which is to combine the efforts of the state and society in solving the problems of education, to provide teachers, students, parents with more rights and freedoms in choosing content, forms and methods of organizing the educational process, various types of educational institutions. The choice of rights and freedoms makes a person not only an object of education, but also its active subject, independently determining his choice from a wide range of educational programs, educational institutions, types of relationships.
For the current state of the education management system, the process of decentralization is most characteristic, i.e. the transfer of a number of functions and powers from higher authorities to lower ones, in which federal authorities develop the most general strategic directions, and regional and local authorities concentrate their efforts on solving specific financial, personnel, material, and organizational problems.
variability, or diversification (translated from Latin - diversity, diversified development), educational institutions involves the simultaneous development of various types of educational institutions: gymnasiums, lyceums, colleges, schools with in-depth study of individual subjects, both state and non-state.
It manifests itself in structural changes in the educational system. The realization that high-quality education and upbringing is possible only in conditions of real continuity of all parts of the educational system leads to the emergence of complex educational institutions (kindergarten - school, school - university, etc.). The trend towards integration is also noticeable today in the content of education: there is a strengthening of interdisciplinary connections, integrative courses are created and implemented in different types of educational institutions, etc.
Integrity manifests itself in structural changes in the educational system. The realization that high-quality education and upbringing is possible only in conditions of real continuity of all parts of the educational system leads to the emergence of complex educational institutions (kindergarten-school, school-university, etc.). The trend towards integration is also noticeable today in the content of education: there is an increase interdisciplinary connections, integrative courses are created and implemented in different types of educational institutions, etc.
Psychologization modern educational process of integration, however, it is legitimate to single it out as an independent direction. This not only reflects an increased social interest in psychology (which is typical during periods of social crises and, as a result, frustration and neuroticism in society), but also suggests that today the very formulation of pedagogical tasks is changing.
In addition to the task of forming students' knowledge, skills and abilities (KAS), the teacher is faced with the task of developing mental abilities that will allow the child to receive them. If the formation of the ZUN field is a pedagogical task, then the formation of mental properties is a psychological and pedagogical task. However, the level of psychological preparation of our teachers today does not allow us to successfully solve this problem.
To solve this problem, it is necessary to conduct special studies, the results of which would help to better implement the current trend towards the practical integration of pedagogy and psychology.
Transition from informative to active teaching methods includes elements of problematic, scientific research, widespread use of reserves of independent work of students, it implies the rejection of strictly regulated controlling, algorithmic methods of organizing the educational process in favor of developing, stimulating the creativity of the individual.
Today, the need for specialists with high potential, the ability to systematically set and solve various problems, is quite clearly expressed. Creativity as the most important adaptation mechanism in a broader sense can be considered not only as a professional characteristic, but also as a necessary personal quality that allows a person to adapt to rapidly changing social conditions and navigate in an ever-expanding information field. The formation of such a quality requires a systematic approach and can be successfully implemented at all levels of education, taking into account the age and individual characteristics of the individual.
Standardization The content of education is characteristic of modern international education practice and is caused by the need to create a unified level of general education, regardless of the type of educational institution. It is understood as a system of basic parameters accepted as the state norm of education, reflecting the social ideal and taking into account the ability of the individual to achieve this ideal.
Industrialization learning, i.e. its computerization and the accompanying technologization, which allows creating and using new models of learning and testing the effectiveness of mastering its content (for example, programmed learning). In addition, the computerization of the educational process greatly expands the possibilities of distance learning, especially for people who, for health reasons, are not able to attend educational institutions.
functional the purpose of the computer in teaching is different in relation to students and teachers. For a teacher, computer technology is a tool of his work, for students and students it is a means of their development. On the one hand, computers facilitate the learning process in terms of increasing the efficiency of transferring educational information, monitoring its assimilation, and correcting various kinds of deviations in learning. On the other hand, excessive enthusiasm for computers, their inept use can become a source of loss of cognitive interests, laziness of thinking and other undesirable consequences for students.
The modern world (by which I mean here, of course, only society, not nature) is the product of a long previous development. Therefore, it cannot be understood without referring to the history of mankind. But recourse to history can only help if one takes the right general approach to it. I am an adherent of a unitary-stage view of world history, according to which it is a single process of progressive development, during which stages of world significance replace each other. Of all the unitary-stage concepts that have existed and still exist today, the theory of socio-economic formations, which is a necessary moment in the Marxist materialist understanding of history (historical materialism), is most consistent with historical reality. In it, the main types of society, which are at the same time the stages of its world development, are singled out on the basis of the socio-economic structure, which gave reason to call them socio-economic formations.
K. Marx himself believed that five socio-economic formations had already changed in the history of mankind: primitive communist, "Asian", ancient (slave-owning), feudal and capitalist. His followers often omitted the "Asian" formation. But regardless of whether four or five socio-economic formations appeared in the picture of the change in the stages of world historical development, it was most often believed that this scheme is a model for the development of each particular society. those. sociohistorical organism (sociora) taken separately. In this interpretation, which can be called linear-stadial, the theory of socio-economic formations came into conflict with historical reality.
But it is also possible to look at the scheme of development and change of socio-economic formations as a reproduction of the internal need for the development of not every sociohistorical organism, taken separately, but only all the sociohistorical organisms that existed in the past and that exist now, taken together, i.e. only human society as a whole. In this case, humanity acts as a single whole, and socio-economic formations, first of all, as stages in the development of this single whole, and not sociohistorical organisms taken separately. Such an understanding of the development and change of socio-economic formations can be called global-stadial, global-formational.
The global-stage understanding of history necessarily involves the study of the interaction between individual specific societies, i.e. sociohistorical organisms, and their various kinds of systems. Socio-historical organisms that existed at the same time next to each other have always influenced each other in one way or another. And often the impact of one sociohistorical organism on another led to significant changes in the structure of the latter. This kind of influence can be called sociological induction.
There was a time in human history when all sociohistorical organisms belonged to the same type. Then the unevenness of historical development began to manifest itself more and more sharply. Some societies moved forward, others continued to remain at the same stages of development. As a result, there are different historical worlds. This became especially noticeable during the transition from a pre-class society to a civilized society. The first civilizations arose as islands in a sea of primitive society. All this makes it necessary to clearly distinguish between advanced sociohistorical organisms and those that are lagging behind in their development. I will name the highest sociohistorical organisms for a given time superior(from lat. super - above, over), and the lower ones - inferior(from lat. infra - under). With the transition to civilization, superior organisms usually did not exist alone. At least a significant part of them, and subsequently all of them taken together, formed an integral system of sociohistorical organisms, which was center of world historical development. This system was world, but not in the sense that it covered the whole world, but in the fact that its existence affected the entire course of world history. All other organisms formed historical periphery. This area was divided into dependent from the center and independent From him.
Of all the types of sociological induction, the most important for understanding the course of history is the impact of superior organisms on inferior organisms. This - sociological superinduction. It could lead to different results. One of them was that under the influence of sociohistorical organisms of a higher type, sociohistorical organisms of a lower type were transformed into organisms of the same type that acted on them, i.e. pulled up to their level. This process can be called superiization. But the influence of superior sociohistorical organisms could also lead to the fact that inferior sociohistorical organisms took a step, on the one hand, forward, and on the other, sideways. Such a result of the influence of superior sociohistorical organisms on inferior ones can be called lateralization (from Latin lateralis - lateral). As a result, peculiar socio-economic types of societies arose that were not stages of world-historical development. They can be called socio-economic paraformations.
The new time, which began on the verge of the 15th and 16th centuries, is characterized by the formation and development of the capitalist mode of production. Capitalism spontaneously, spontaneously, without external influence, arose in only one place on the globe - in Western Europe. The emerging bourgeois sociohistorical organisms formed a new world system. The development of capitalism proceeded in two directions. One direction - development deep into: the maturation of capitalist relations, the industrial revolution, bourgeois revolutions that ensured the transfer of power into the hands of the bourgeoisie, etc. Another is the development of capitalism in breadth.
The Western European world system of capitalism is the first of the four world systems (it was preceded by three: the Middle Eastern political system, the Mediterranean ancient system, and the Western European feudal burgher system), which swept the whole world with its influence. With its appearance, the process of internationalization began. All existing sociohistorical organisms began to form a certain unity - world historical space. The historical periphery turned out to be not only and not simply drawn into the sphere of influence of the new historical center - the world capitalist system. She became dependent on the center, became an object of exploitation by the world system of capitalism. Some peripheral countries completely lost their independence and became colonies of the West, while others, having formally retained sovereignty, found themselves in various forms of economic, and thus political dependence on it.
As a result of the influence of the world capitalist center, capitalist socio-economic relations began to penetrate into the countries of the periphery, the whole world began to become capitalist. The conclusion involuntarily suggested itself that sooner or later all countries would become capitalist, and thus the distinction between the historical center and the historical periphery would disappear. All sociohistorical organisms will belong to the same type, they will be capitalist. This conclusion formed the basis of the 20th century numerous concepts of modernization (W. Rostow, S. Eisenstadt, S. Black, etc.). In an extremely clear form, it was formulated in the works of F. Fukuyama. But life turned out to be more difficult, it broke all logically completely flawless schemes.
The historical center and the historical periphery have survived and continue to exist to this day, although they, of course, have undergone significant changes. The historical periphery did gradually begin to become capitalist, but the whole point is that in all the peripheral countries dependent on the Western European world center, capitalism took on a form different from that in the countries of the center. This was not noticed for a long time. For a long time it was believed that all the features of capitalism in the peripheral countries are connected either with the fact that they are deprived of political independence, they are colonies, or with the fact that this capitalism is early, not yet sufficiently developed, immature.
Enlightenment came only in the middle of the 20th century. And initially, the economists and politicians of Latin America. By this time, the countries of Latin America had been politically independent for a century and a half, and capitalism in them could in no way be characterized as original or early. The Argentine economist R. Prebisch was the first to come to the conclusion that the international capitalist system is quite clearly divided into two parts: the center, which is formed by the countries of the West, and the periphery, and that the capitalism that exists in the countries of the periphery, which he called peripheral capitalism, qualitatively differs from the capitalism of the countries of the center. Later, the thesis about the existence of two types of capitalism was developed in the works of T. Dos Santos, F. Cardoso, E. Faletto, S. Furtado, A. Aguilar, H. Alavi, G. Myrdal, P. Baran, S. Amin and other adherents of the concept of dependence (dependent development). They convincingly showed that peripheral capitalism is not the initial stage of capitalism, characteristic of the countries of the center, but a dead-end version of capitalism, in principle incapable of progress and dooming the vast majority of the population of peripheral countries to deep and hopeless poverty.
By now it can be considered firmly established that there are two qualitatively distinct capitalist modes of production: center capitalism, which I prefer to call ortho-capitalism(from the Greek orthos - direct, genuine), and capitalism of the periphery - paracapitalism(from the Greek. couple - near, about). Accordingly, along with the ortho-capitalist socio-economic formation, there is a para-capitalist socio-economic para-formation in the world. Thus, the impact of superior capitalist sociohistorical organisms on the overwhelming majority of inferior precapitalist sociohistorical organisms resulted not in the superiorization of the latter, but in their lateralization.
In the XIX-XX centuries. the world center has also changed. It has expanded both by budding (USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand) and superiorization (Nordic countries and Japan). As a result, the world ortho-capitalist system began to be called not Western European, but simply Western.
By the beginning of the XX century. Basically, the division of the world historical space, coinciding with the international capitalist system, into two historical worlds took shape: the Western world ortho-capitalist system and the countries of the periphery, in which paracapitalism either arose or already arose. Along with many other countries of the world, by the beginning of the 20th century. tsarist Russia entered the dependent periphery. Paracapitalism arose in it.
Since by the beginning of the XX century. capitalism in Western Europe finally established itself, the era of bourgeois revolutions for most of its countries is a thing of the past. But the era of revolutions has come for the rest of the world, in particular for Russia. These revolutions are usually understood as bourgeois. But this is not true. They were qualitatively different from the revolutions in the West. These revolutions were not directed against feudalism, for such a social system never existed in any peripheral country, including Russia. Nor were they directed against pre-capitalist relations taken by themselves. These relations in the peripheral countries did not oppose capitalist ones, but were in symbiosis with them. And the main obstacle to the development of these countries was not pre-capitalist relations, but peripheral capitalism, which included pre-capitalist relations as a necessary moment. Therefore, the objective task of these revolutions was to eliminate peripheral capitalism, and thereby to destroy dependence on the center. While anti-paracapitalist, these revolutions were inevitably anti-ortho-capitalist, directed against capitalism in general.
The first wave of them occurred in the first two decades of the 20th century: the revolutions of 1905–1907. in Russia, 1905–1911 in Iran, 1908–1909 in Turkey, 1911–1912 in China, 1911–1917 in Mexico, 1917 again in Russia. The October Workers' and Peasants' Revolution of 1917 in Russia is the only one of all that won. But this victory did not at all consist in achieving the goal set by the leaders and participants in the revolution - the creation of a classless socialist, and then communist society. At the then level of development of the productive forces, Russia could not pass over to socialism. This level inevitably presupposed the existence of private property. And in Russia, after the October Revolution, which destroyed both pre-capitalist and capitalist forms of exploitation, the process of formation of private property, exploitation of man by man and social classes inevitably began. But the path to capitalist class formation was closed. Therefore, this process has acquired a different character in the country.
When people talk about private property, they usually mean the property of an individual who can use and dispose of it undividedly. This is a legal, legal approach. But property in a class society is always a phenomenon not only legal, but also economic. Private property as an economic relation is such a property of one part of society that allows it to exploit another (moreover, a large part) of it. The people who make up the class of exploiters may own the means of production in different ways. If they own them individually, then this personal private property, if by groups, then it is group private property.
And, finally, only the class of exploiters as a whole can be the owner, but not one of its members taken separately. This - general class private property, which always takes the form of state property. This conditions the coincidence of the ruling exploiting class with the core of the state apparatus. Before us is the same mode of production that Marx once called Asiatic. I prefer to call it political(from Greek politia - state) production method. There is not one, but several political modes of production. One of them - ancient political- was the basis of society in the ancient, and then in the medieval East, in pre-Columbian America. Other politarian modes of production arose sporadically in different countries in different historical epochs. In post-October Russia, in the Soviet Union, a mode of production was established that can be called neopolitan.
If we consider the October Revolution of 1917 as socialist, then we inevitably have to admit that it was defeated. Instead of socialism, a new antagonistic class society arose in the USSR - a neo-political one. But the essence of the matter is that this revolution, in its objective task, was not at all socialist, but anti-paracapitalist. And in this capacity, she certainly won. Russia's dependence on the West was destroyed, peripheral capitalism was eliminated in the country, and thus capitalism in general.
At first, new productive - neo-political - relations ensured the rapid development of productive forces in Russia, which had thrown off the fetters of dependence on the West. The latter turned from a backward agrarian state into one of the most powerful industrial countries in the world, which subsequently ensured the position of the USSR as one of the two superpowers. As a result of the second wave of anti-capitalist revolutions that took place in the countries of the capitalist periphery in the 1940s, neopolitarism spread far beyond the borders of the USSR. The periphery of the international capitalist system has sharply narrowed. A huge, whole system of neo-political socio-historical organisms took shape, which acquired the status of a world one.
As a result, for the first time in the history of mankind, two world systems began to exist on the globe: neo-political and ortho-capitalist. The second was the center for the peripheral para-capitalist countries, which together with it formed the international capitalist system. Such a structure was expressed in the customary in the 40-50s of the 20th century. division of human society as a whole into three historical worlds: the first (ortho-capitalist), the second ("socialist", neo-political) and the third (peripheral, para-capitalist).
The possibility of neo-political production relations to stimulate the development of productive forces was rather limited. They could not ensure the intensification of production, the introduction of the results of a new, third in a row (after the agrarian and industrial revolutions), a revolution in the productive forces of mankind - the scientific and technological revolution (NTR). The rate of production growth began to fall. Neo-political relations have become a brake on the development of productive forces. There was a need for a revolutionary transformation of society. But instead of a revolution, there was a counter-revolution.
The USSR collapsed. In its largest stump, called the Russian Federation, and other states that arose on the ruins of this country, capitalism began to take shape. The development of the majority of other neo-political countries followed the same path. The global neo-political system has disappeared. Most of its former members began to integrate into the international capitalist system, and in all cases in its peripheral part. Almost all of them, including Russia, again found themselves in economic and political dependence on the ortho-capitalist center. In all these countries, not just capitalism, but peripheral capitalism began to take shape. For Russia, this was nothing more than a restoration of the situation that existed before the October Revolution of 1917. Restoration also took place on the scale of the world, taken as a whole. On earth, only one world system began to exist again - the ortho-capitalist one. It is the historical center, all countries that are not included in it form the historical periphery.
However, a complete return to the past did not happen. All countries outside the Western center are peripheral, but not all of them are dependent on the West. In addition to the dependent periphery, there is an independent periphery. From the countries of the former neo-political world system, it includes China, Vietnam, Cuba, North Korea, until recently - Yugoslavia, from among others Burma, Iran, Libya, until April 2002 - Iraq. Of the countries that emerged from the ruins of the USSR, Belarus belongs to an independent periphery. Thus, the world is now divided into four parts: 1) the Western ortho-capitalist center; 2) old dependent periphery; 3) new dependent periphery; 4) independent periphery.
But the main thing that distinguishes the modern world is the process of globalization taking place in it. If internationalization is the process of creating a world system of sociohistorical organisms, then globalization is the process of the emergence of one single sociohistorical organism on the scale of all mankind. This emerging world sociohistorical organism has a peculiar structure - it itself consists of sociohistorical organisms. Analogy - superorganisms in the biological world, such as, for example, anthills, termite mounds, swarms of bees. All of them consist of ordinary biological organisms - ants, termites, bees. Therefore, it would be most accurate to talk about the process of formation in the modern world of a global sociohistorical superorganism.
And this one global superorganism in conditions when there is an ortho-capitalist center on earth that exploits most of the periphery, and the periphery exploited by this center inevitably arises as class sociohistorical organism. It's split in two global class. One global class is the countries of the West. Together they act as a class of exploiters. Another global class is formed by the countries of the new and old dependent periphery. And since the global sociohistorical organism is split into classes, one of which exploits the other, then it must inevitably take place in it. global class struggle.
The formation of a global class society inevitably implies the formation of a global state apparatus, which is a tool in the hands of the ruling class. The formation of a global state cannot be anything other than the establishment of the complete dominance of the Western center over the whole world, and thereby depriving all peripheral sociohistorical organisms of real not only economic, but also political independence.
The new state of the western center contributes to the fulfillment of this task. In the past, it was split into warring parts. So it was before the First World War, when the countries of the Entente and the countries of Concord confronted each other. This was also the case before the Second World War. Now the center is basically the same. It is unified under US leadership. The old imperialism was replaced by the alliance of all imperialists predicted by J. Hobson back in 1902, jointly exploiting the rest of the world[ 1 ]. K. Kautsky once called this phenomenon ultra-imperialism.
Now the famous "seven" has already emerged as a world government, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank as tools for the economic enslavement of the periphery. No class society can do without special detachments of armed men, with the help of which the ruling class keeps the oppressed in subjection. NATO has now become such an apparatus of worldwide violence.
Not so long ago, the ortho-capitalist center was limited in the possibilities of aggressive actions by the existence of the world neo-political system and the USSR. A strong muzzle was put on ultra-imperialism. As a result, he was forced to accept the collapse of the world colonial system. In an effort to get rid of this muzzle, the center and, above all, the United States initiated an arms race. But for a long time it was all in vain. Now there is no Soviet Union. The muzzle is torn off. And the ortho-capitalist center went on the offensive.
There is a process of establishing what the Nazis called the "New Order" (Neue Ordnung), and their current successors the "New World Order" (New World Order). The main danger to the ultra-imperialist center comes from countries that are politically and economically independent of it. Of course, of these, China is the most dangerous for the ortho-capitalist center, but it is still too tough for it. The first blow was delivered to Iraq in 1991. Iraq was defeated, but the goal was not achieved, the country retained its independence. The second blow was delivered in 1999 against Yugoslavia. As a result, although not immediately, a pro-Western “fifth column” came to power in the country. Yugoslavia became part of the dependent periphery.
Modern development trends can be characterized in two words - globalization and acceleration. Technology, manufacturing and our entire lives are accelerating every day. The economies of various countries are becoming more and more intertwined every year, the Internet unites millions of people around the world, transport allows you not to think about distances, events in one region of the world, one way or another, affect all countries.
Modern development trends are based on the interaction of individuals, organizations and entire states. Today, only a few countries manage to maintain isolation from the outside world, but they will never be able to achieve complete isolation. For example, even in North Korea you can get on a tourist excursion, which already speaks of the partial openness of this country. Globalization has connected the various regions of the planet so strongly that events in one of them will inevitably affect the other. Mankind has realized that it is necessary to combine their knowledge, skills and technologies in order to achieve even greater success, and therefore we can observe countless international agreements, treaties, organizations and associations.
In every sphere of people's lives, the directions of change are different, but at the same time they have much in common. As already mentioned, everything in our lives is accelerating and becoming more interconnected.
Modern trends in the development of technology are so radically changing our daily lives that it is already difficult to imagine existence without many technological devices. It is unlikely that anyone will be able to do without a mobile phone, computer, digital camera. The development of communication technologies has led to tangible changes in the way business is conducted. The so-called electronic business or business on the Internet is gaining more and more development. This became possible thanks to the wide spread of the Internet, now we can connect to the global network not only from our home computer, but also from a laptop, mobile phone and other portable computer devices. Current trends in the development of wireless communications suggest that we will soon be able to connect to the network anywhere in the world, which is undoubtedly very convenient. Along with the expansion of the connection zone, the quality of the connection itself improves and the number of services provided increases. In addition, modern economic development trends focus on the provision of services rather than on the production process itself, which is why Internet commerce has become so widespread.
In our world, modern development trends can also be described as a series of changes that radically change our reality. If earlier we had to go to the post office or the bank to pay any bills, now we can do all this without leaving our room - the Internet saves us from unnecessary running around and queues. The improvement of the service sector affects the current trends in the development of the entire world economy. Now the main attention is paid to the promotion of goods and its improvement, great attention is paid to the improvement of technologies, both production and sales. Automation of production has made it possible to reduce labor costs for the manufacture of products itself, now employees are required not only to manufacture, but to improve and promote goods on the market. Now the important thing is not what to sell, but how to do it.
Modern trends in the development of the world economy cannot be imagined without the process of globalization. One of the most influential organizations that establishes the principles and rules of world trade is the WTO - the World Trade Organization. The largest countries in the world are part of this association, but developing countries are rapidly gaining momentum and many of them are already almost ready to join this global community. According to the WTO, in recent years the market share occupied by communication services and information technologies has increased in the world, while the share of trade in agricultural products and raw materials has decreased.
The development of technology and the healthcare system have not bypassed. Modern trends in the development of medicine and health protection are also based on the achievements of communication systems. In addition to the breakthrough in the pharmacological field, it is worth mentioning the diagnostic component of healthcare. It is now possible to diagnose patients at a distance, which increases the accuracy of the diagnosis, as the attending physician is able to immediately consult with a more experienced specialist in a particular field. With the help of the latest technologies, the international GLOB project was launched, which involves studying the mechanisms of the relationship between the quality of primary health care provided to the population and the level of training of personnel providing this health care. Speaking about the use of the latest technologies in the treatment of various ailments, it should be noted that current development trends in this area boil down to the fact that the current possibilities of medicine make it possible to minimize surgical operations that require deep incisions or openings. Laser treatment technologies make it possible to do without postoperative scars and scars, because no deep incisions are made.
Speaking about medicine, one should also mention the current trends in the development of cosmetology. Among the most developing hardware techniques are laser, RF, photo techniques. At the same time, long-used technologies are being improved: electromyostimulation, ultrasound, microcurrent therapy, etc. For example, RF technologies help eliminate excess fat deposits on the face, give excellent results in skin tightening and eliminate the external manifestations of cellulite. Many cosmetic procedures are carried out using ultrasound, for example, in the correction of local fat deposits.
Current trends in the development of education suggest that soon a machine can largely replace a person. For example, it is worth remembering the system of distance education, which made it possible to gain new knowledge without leaving your home. Modern trends in the development of education are based on self-learning, because the assimilation of the material depends solely on the student. Now there is no need to force to learn something, if a person really needs education, knowledge and a diploma, then he will make enough efforts. Of course, this education is not available to everyone. The point is not in the material or technological support of this type of educational process, but in the ability to work independently. Modern trends in the development of education focus not so much on learning to do something, but on learning to independently find and apply the necessary information. The current level of development of information and communication technologies allows everyone to find a lot of information on a particular subject, and now it is important not just to find information, but to choose the right one and use it correctly. Many teachers and educators are noticing that traditional education systems in schools and universities are becoming less and less adequate for the required level of preparation. Every year, the curricula are adjusted, but in the end, something is still wrong. Modern trends in the development of society force us to look for radically new teaching methods, to use not just textbooks, but textbooks in combination with specific real-life examples and tasks. In many countries, a methodology is already being practiced in which the student himself chooses the necessary subjects for study, and the teacher can only suggest the necessary set of disciplines. This can be considered reasonable, because, you see, it is not always important for a builder to know the ancient or modern concepts of the origin of the universe. It is much more important for this specialist to know the properties of building materials, mathematics, physics and other natural sciences. It is necessary to transform the training system so that, having come to work, a person can almost immediately begin to fulfill his duties, and now we can often observe the picture:
Forget everything you learned at school/university and learn all over again.
Obviously, a young specialist can hear such a phrase quite often in our time, which is why the entire education system needs to be restructured.
The above modern trends in the development of technology, economics, education, medicine are not a complete list of changes and innovations that we can meet in our lives. However, no matter what area we take for consideration, the key will still be advances in technology, because they most strongly change the usual foundations and algorithms of actions. At the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries, we faced the so-called era of global change, which was caused by a breakthrough in microelectronics. The latest developments have made many dreams and wildest assumptions a reality: wireless Internet, mobile communications, etc. The older generation had a chance to retrain and adapt to the radically changed working conditions and life in general. Young people are rapidly moving forward, quickly assimilating huge flows of information. Modern trends in the development of society indicate that in today's world a successful person is a person who knows how to quickly find the necessary information and effectively apply it. Thus, we have come close to such a concept as an information society, in which the main value is not traditional labor, land, capital, but information. As never before, the phrase sounds convincing: "Who owns the information - owns everything."
Elizabeth Lz
The current deplorable state of mankind against the background of supposedly progressive technological progress has many characteristic features, which are not difficult to determine. Our successes in the study of inert matter are only a small fraction of the total treasury of knowledge about the surrounding world.
Our science is fragmented into highly specialized areas, the original relationship between which has been lost. Our technology literally “throws out” most of the generated energy into the pipe, polluting the human habitat. Our education is based on the upbringing of “calculating logic machines” and “walking encyclopedias”, which are completely incapable of a flight of fancy, creative inspiration that goes beyond obsolete dogmas and stereotypes.
Our attention is literally "glued" to TV screens and computer monitors, while our Earth, and with it the entire biosphere, is literally suffocating from the products of environmental and mental pollution. Our health depends entirely on the consumption of more and more new chemicals, which are gradually losing the fight against constantly mutating viruses. Yes, and we ourselves are beginning to turn into some kind of mutants, which are free applications to the technology we have created.
The consequences of such a thoughtless invasion of the environment are becoming more and more unpredictable, and therefore catastrophically dangerous for ourselves. Let's try to take a closer look at all the processes that occur in the real world around us. It's time to wake up, exit the "world of dreams." We must finally realize our role in this world and open our eyes wide, throw off the illusions and mirages that we have been captivated by for the last millennia. If we continue to remain a "planet of the sleepers", the wind of evolution will simply "blow" us off that great stage of life that is called "Earth", as it was already many millions of years ago with other forms of life.
What is really happening now? What are the characteristic trends in the modern world? What prospects await us in the very near future? In the second half of the 20th century, futurologists began to give answers to these questions, and now more and more researchers from various fields of science, religion, and esoteric knowledge are joining their voice. And what a picture emerges against this background.
Analysis of scientific data presented by G.T.Molitor, I.V.Bestuzhev-Lada, K.Kartashova, V.Burlak, V.Megre, Yu.Osipov, L.Prourzin, V.Shubart, G.Bichev, A.Mikeev , H. Zenderman, N. Gulia, A. Sakharov, W. Sullivan, Y. Galperin, I. Neumyvakin, O. Toffler, O. Eliseeva, K. Meadows, I. Yanitsky, A. Voitsekhovsky P. Globa, T. Globa, I. Tsarev, D. Azarov, V. Dmitriev, S. Demkin, N. Boyarkina, V. Kondakov, L. Volodarsky, A. Remizov, M. Setron, O. Davis, G. Henderson, A. Peccei, N. Wiener, J. Bernal, E. Kornish, E. Avetisov, O. Grevtsev, Y. Fomin, F. Polak, D. Bell, T. Yakovets, Y. V. Mizun, Y. G. Mizun, allows to identify the following problems of modern technocratic civilization:
1) the dependence of worldview and lifestyle on the media, computer and television "drug addiction", contributing to a sedentary lifestyle, going into virtual reality, reduced immunity, propaganda of cults of violence, the "golden calf", promiscuous sex;
2) a high degree of urbanization, which contributes to the separation of people from natural rhythms, which also provokes a decrease in immunity, an increase in stressful situations, mental and infectious diseases, and worsens the ecological situation;
3) the brewing of another world war against the backdrop of the threat of depletion of natural resources, the intensifying struggle for markets and energy sources, and excessive stocks of weapons of mass destruction;
4) transformation of a person into a cybernetic organism: a human-machine, a human-computer (biorobot), an appendage and a slave of the created technical devices;
5) a decrease in the birth rate against the background of the physical degeneration of mankind, the collapse of family relations, the growth of drug addiction, prostitution, crime (social catastrophe);
6) the imperfection of school programs that prepare a new generation of biorobots with the psychology of predators (overt and covert forms of aggression in relation to the outside world), with talents and abilities crammed with brainless cramming;
7) global violation of the ecological balance (deforestation, growth of carbon dioxide and harmful impurities in the atmosphere, erosion of fertile lands, an increase in the number of natural disasters, natural disasters, man-made accidents and catastrophes);
8) degradation of mental abilities against the background of automatic actions in the conditions of technocratic life, scheduled by the clock, watching primitive "soap operas", low-quality action movies, reading tabloid press, computer "toys";
9) a global crisis in the fundamental sciences, caused by the stratification and narrow specialization of the orthodox sciences, the blind denial of religious and esoteric knowledge, adherence to outdated dogmas within the framework of classical physics of the 19th century, a whole cascade of new discoveries that do not fit into generally accepted paradigms;
10) the evolution of technical devices to the detriment of the evolution of the person himself, his abilities and talents, the harmonious development of both hemispheres of the brain;
11) mutational processes as a result of illiterate genetic experiments in the plant world, leading (through food) to a violation of the genetic code of animals and humans;
12) prosperity of terrorism on the basis of religious and ideological fanaticism and separatism;
13) the emergence of new types of diseases characteristic of a technocratic society, as well as mutations of already known viruses due to the use of carcinogenic substances and the side effects of synthetic drugs (annual increase in both the diseases themselves and the number of patients), one-sided development of medicine (the fight against consequences, and not the cause of disease)
14) a weak positive orientation in art and culture, the emergence of new types of culture and anti-culture that deny universal human values.
On June 14, 2012, the All-Russian Scientific Conference "Global Trends in the Development of the World" was held at the Institute of Scientific Information for Social Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The participants identified the main global trends in world development in the coming decades, including the redistribution of players in the global energy market, new industrialization, intensive migration, the concentration of information resources, and the increase in global crises. The main problems facing humanity were also named, including maintaining the food balance, the need to build a global system for managing the world (world legislative, executive and judicial authorities).
Keywords: globalization, global crisis, economic cycles, management, post-industrialism, energy.
The All-Russian conference “Global trends of the world development” was held on June 14, 2012, at the Institute of Scientific Information for Social Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The participants defined the main global trends of the world development for the next decades among which are redistribution on the world’s energy market, reindustrialization, intensive migration, centralization of the mass-media, and more frequent world crises. The most important problems of the future globalizing world were also defined including the maintenance of the global food supply balance, organization of the global management system (world legislative, executive and judiciary powers).
keywords: globalization, world crisis, economic cycles, governance, postindustrialism, energy.
On June 14, 2012, the All-Russian Scientific Conference "Global Trends in the Development of the World" was held in Moscow at the Institute for Scientific Information on Social Sciences (INION) of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The organizers were the Center for Problem Analysis and State Management Design at the UN RAS, the Central Economics and Mathematics Institute of the RAS, INION RAS, the Institute of Economics of the RAS, the Institute of Philosophy of the RAS, the Faculty of Global Processes and the Faculty of Political Science of Lomonosov Moscow State University.
The conference was attended by Director of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences Ruslan Grinberg, Director of the Center for Problem Analysis and State Management Design Stepan Sulakshin, foreign member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Askar Akaev, First Vice President of the Russian Philosophical Society Alexander Chumakov and others.
Taking into account the unfolding process of globalization, the relevance of the topic, as emphasized by the chairman of the conference, head of the Department of Public Policy of Moscow State University and scientific director of the Center for Problem Analysis and State Management Design Vladimir Yakunin, does not even need special justification. The world is uniting, ties between countries are becoming stronger and closer, and mutual influence is becoming more and more inevitable. This is felt especially strongly today, during the global financial and economic crisis. A vivid example suggests itself thanks to one coincidence: the conference took place literally on the eve of the parliamentary elections in Greece, the result of which actually determined whether the country would remain in the eurozone or leave it. And this, in turn, would have an impact both directly and indirectly in various and far from always predictable ways on the entire world that has become global and, ultimately, on each of its inhabitants.
Vladimir Yakunin: "One of the biggest dangers is the global domination of the consumer society"
At the beginning of his report "Global Trends in Modern World Development", which opened the plenary session of the conference, Vladimir Yakunin, head of the Department of Public Policy of Moscow State University, listed the main directions on which the shape of the future world depends:
· development of energy, including the development of alternative energy sources;
· the possibility of "new industrialism" (and global civilizational conflicts, conflicts of the real and virtual economy, as well as the possibility of neo-industrialism);
Maintaining the food balance in the world, providing the population of the planet with drinking water;
• migration and changes in the composition of the population;
the movement of information flows.
Most of Vladimir Yakunin's speech was devoted to the energy theme. Speaking about energy as one of the main factors of the future, he stressed that we are in a period of changing energy patterns: the oil pattern, apparently, is already beginning to give way to the gas one. The oil supply is finite, and although fossil fuels are predicted to remain the main source of primary energy in the coming decades and will provide 3/4 of the world's energy needs by 2030, alternative energy sources are already being developed today.
According to experts, non-recoverable energy resources today account for at least 1/3 of all hydrocarbon reserves, the volume of non-recoverable gas is 5 times greater than the world's recoverable gas reserves. These resources will account for 45% of all consumption in a few decades. By 2030, "non-traditional" gas will take 14% of the market.
In this regard, the role of new technologies is becoming increasingly important: countries that can develop and apply appropriate technologies will take the lead.
It is important to foresee how Russia's position will change in connection with this process.
Some of our politicians so actively called the country an energy power that they believed it even abroad: foreign colleagues began to build a system to counter the superpower. However, this is nothing more than a rhetorical formula that has little in common with reality.
Qatar, Iran and Russia will apparently remain traditional suppliers. But the United States, which is actively developing new technologies (in particular, shale gas production), may become not importers, but exporters of hydrocarbon raw materials as early as 2015, and this will certainly have an impact on the world market and may shake Russia's position.
China, traditionally a "coal" country, by 2030 will depend on oil imports by no less than 2/3. The same can be said about India.
The obvious, according to Vladimir Yakunin, is the need for a radical change in the management of the energy system, the introduction of an international system for regulating energy production.
“I avoid the word “globalism” because it has acquired a clear political connotation. When we say “globalism”, we mean that the world has become unified, has shrunk thanks to information flows and world trade. And for politicians, this is a well-established system of dominance in their own interests,” Vladimir Yakunin emphasized.
Then the speaker described another major factor that will influence the face of the world - the new industrialism. He recalled David Cameron's recent speeches: at very representative meetings, the British prime minister repeatedly returned to the idea of reindustrialization of Great Britain. Thus, despite the fact that Britain is associated with the Anglo-Saxon model of the world, which postulated the idea of post-industrialism, the British establishment itself is beginning to understand the failure of this theory underlying the neoliberal approach. Against the backdrop of slogans that material production is losing its role in the economy, harmful production is being withdrawn to developing countries, where centers of industrial development are being formed. Vladimir Yakunin stressed that there is no percentage decline in material production.
The theory of post-industrialism is the rationale for the practice of a new redistribution of wealth in exchange for virtual values.
Now these values, generated by the giant financial sector, are increasingly divorced from real values. According to some data, the ratio of the real and virtual economy is 1:10 (the volume of the real economy is estimated at 60 trillion dollars, the volume of paper money, derivatives, etc., is estimated at 600 trillion dollars).
The speaker noted that the distance between crises is shrinking. It was also said about the model of crises developed at the Center for Problem Analysis and State-Administrative Design, according to which - at least in a mathematical perspective - a continuous state of crisis will soon come (Fig. 1).
Rice. 1. Zero-point forecast for the global dollar pyramid
Speaking about changes in the world population, Yakunin mentioned some significant trends, in particular the change in the ratio of Catholics and Muslims. The ratio of the number of working population and pensioners in 50 years will change from today's 5:1 to 2:1.
Finally, one of the most striking global trends is the colossal monopolization of the information sector. If in 1983 there were 50 media corporations in the world, then in less than 20 years their number has decreased to six.
Vladimir Yakunin noted that now, with the help of information technology, some countries can be classified as "losers", while others can be made bearers of world values that are being imposed on all of humanity.
And yet the main problem of the global world, according to Vladimir Yakunin, is not food or water, but the loss of morality, the threat of relegating people's interests exclusively to material goods. The establishment of the global dominance of the values of the consumer society is one of the greatest dangers of the future world.
Ruslan Grinberg: “Right-liberal philosophy has gone out of fashion”
The plenary session was continued by Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Director of the Institute of Economics of the Academy of Sciences (IE RAS) Ruslan Grinberg. In the report “World Trends and Chances of Eurasian Integration”, the scientist stated “four returns”, which we are now witnessing.
The first return is the centralization and concentration of capital. According to the speaker, literally the same processes of capital concentration, mergers and acquisitions are taking place now as in the late 19th - early 20th centuries. The crisis of Keynesianism and the triumphant march of liberalism brought to life the formula small is beautiful - “small is beautiful”. But this, the director of the Institute of Economics believes, was only a deviation from the general trend: in fact, giants rule the world. in this context, the discussion in Russia about the benefits of state corporations is typical.
The second return is the return of the material economy. Here Ruslan Grinberg referred to the previous report, in which Vladimir Yakunin mentioned the speeches of David Cameron.
“The financial sector ceases to be a goal and again becomes a means of economic development,” the scientist states.
The third is the return of cycles. It seemed that the cycles were overcome, the world developed a serious arsenal of actions against cyclical development, especially monetary policy within the framework of monetarism - here it must be praised - worked very effectively, acknowledges Ruslan Grinberg.
However, the cycles returned. There is a discussion about the nature of the current crisis. “As president of the Kondratiev Foundation, I should have stood by our scientist to the death, but I agree more with Simon Kuznets's theory,” the speaker says.
“I lean towards a simple theory of fat and lean years,” says the scientist. - After 130 months of rapid growth in the West, the "golden age" of the economy, the fashion for deregulation came an investment pause. It is unlikely that it is connected with the transition to a new way of life.
Finally, the fourth return is the return of the imperative of global regulation. The global economy requires a global regulator, Ruslan Grinberg is convinced, otherwise it cannot develop further. Here a problem arises: there are abstract talks about global peace, but countries do not want to lose their national sovereignties.
Speaking about potential conflicts, the director of the Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences, noted that the shrinking of the middle class, which is taking place on a global scale, could become the basis for them.
As a result of the victory of liberalism, a middle class arose, which led, as it were, to a classless society. Now there is a return to classes again, a "revolt" of the middle class. This can be seen with particular force in Russia, Ruslan Grinberg is convinced. A characteristic feature of this "uprising" is dissatisfaction with the authorities, but the absence of a real project. This paves the way for right-wing and left-wing populists to win elections.
It seems that 500 years of the dominance of the Euro-American civilization are coming to an end, Ruslan Grinberg believes. In this regard, China attracts special attention. How will he behave?
“We know that America can make very big mistakes, but we know how it behaves, but we don’t know how China will behave. This creates good conditions for Russia, which can become a balancing force in the world,” Grinberg says.
In conclusion, the speaker stated that right-liberal philosophy has gone out of fashion: Obama and Hollande, as well as other examples, confirm that the welfare state is returning.
There is a linear increase and repeated “flips” in the prices of oil and other global commodities, and the distance between these “flips” is shrinking. After analyzing the emergence of global financial crises, the "comb" of crises (Fig. 2), the Center's staff came to the conclusion that none of the existing mathematical models of random distribution explains their cyclicity.
Rice. 2."Comb" of significant financial and economic crises
Meanwhile, the inter-crisis interval is subject to regularity. For example, the staff of the Center built a three-phase model of the crisis and described a theoretical model of a controlled financial crisis, which, apparently, has been operating for 200 years.
Having built a generalized cycle of market conditions and tried to phase the cycle of world crises with it, the employees came to the conclusion that there is no convincing synchronism (Fig. 3).
Rice. 3. A generalized cycle of market conditions and world crises phasing with it. Lack of convincing synchronicity
Crises are not associated with cyclical development (at least, up to historical statistics). They are connected with acquisitiveness, with the interests of the group of beneficiaries, Stepan Sulakshin is convinced. The US Federal Reserve, which issues dollars, is a complex supranational structure woven into the political mechanism. The beneficiaries' club influences all countries of the world. The US itself is actually a hostage to this superstructure.
It exists due to the fact that material support is ten times lower than the monetary equivalent. The appreciation of the dollar in national and regional currencies gives beneficiaries the opportunity to receive more real benefits.
The fact that the Fed and the US are beneficiaries is proved by the magnitude of the damage caused by crises to the GDP of different countries (Fig. 4).
Rice. 4. Comparison of damage from global financial crises for different countries of the world in terms of GDP
At the end of the plenary session, the presentation of a collective monograph by the staff of the Center "Political Dimension of World Financial Crises" took place, in which a huge amount of factual material was analyzed and a controlled model of crisis phenomena was described in detail.
Rice. five. Comparison of the damage from global financial crises for different countries of the world in terms of GDP, inflation, unemployment and investment
Alexander Chumakov: "Humanity is on the verge of a global war of all against all"
First Vice-President of the Russian Philosophical Society Alexander Chumakov made a presentation "Global World Governance: Realities and Prospects".
According to him, among the main tasks of modern humanity, the need to form global governance mechanisms is becoming central, since any social system in the absence of governance lives according to the laws of self-organization, where various elements of such a system seek to occupy a dominant (more advantageous) position by any means. An annihilating struggle logically ends the conflict unless one of the parties recognizes itself as defeated, with all the ensuing consequences. Starting to consider the problem, the speaker clarified the concepts that play a key role in solving the problem.
Since “the modern global world is immanently connected with globalization”, it is important to emphasize that there are serious discrepancies in the understanding of this phenomenon even in the expert community, not to mention the broad public consciousness. A. Chumakov understands globalization as "primarily an objective historical process, where the subjective factor sometimes plays a fundamental role, but is not the initial one." That is why, speaking of global management, it is necessary to correctly define the object and subject of management. At the same time, if everything is more or less clear with the object (this is the entire world community, which by the end of the 20th century formed a single system), then with the subject - the controlling principle - the situation is more complicated. Here, as was emphasized, it is important to get rid of the illusion that the world community can be controlled from any one center or through any one structure, organization, etc. In addition, it is necessary to distinguish between regulation and management, which involves clarifying these key concepts. Further, the dialectics of the correlation of these concepts was shown and examples of their work at the level of nation-states were given.
Since the task of organizing the management of a megasystem has become acute for humanity, the central question is how such management will become possible. In the speaker's opinion, here the historically justified principle of separation of powers into three branches should be taken as the basis: legislative, executive and judicial. And it is in this context that we can and should talk not only about the world government (as an executive power), but also about the totality of all the necessary structures that would represent the legislative power (the world parliament), the judiciary and everything else related to upbringing, education , encouragement and coercion at this level.
However, due to the colossal differentiation of the world community and the egoistic nature of man, the near future on the planet, according to A. Chumakov, will most likely be subordinated to the natural course of events, which is fraught with serious social conflicts and upheavals.
Further, the work of the conference continued within the framework of the poster section, where several dozen participants from different cities of Russia presented their work. As Stepan Sulakshin emphasized, the poster section of the conference is very extensive, and this is extremely important, since it is there that live, direct communication of the participants takes place. Fascinating and sometimes controversial reports could be listened to by visiting one of the four sections of the conference:
· “Humanity in megahistory and the universe: the meaning of the “project””;
· "History of the global world";
· "Transition processes in the world";
· Threats to the world.
So, the main global trends in the development of the world have been announced, options for action have been proposed. Summing up the results of the conference, one cannot, however, say that the participants of the plenary session and sections have always managed to achieve unanimity or at least stable mutual understanding. This only confirms how complex the problems of the global world are, which humanity will inevitably have to solve. their discussion is necessary, attempts to see the challenges and set goals are extremely important in themselves. Therefore, it is difficult to overestimate the significance of the conference, in which scientists and experts managed to "synchronize watches".
As a result of the conference, it is planned to publish a collection of works.