Three countries of the largest gas exporters. The main countries exporting and importing gas, Russia's place in this market

The article presents current and official data for 2016, based on the information provided. statistical information Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Modern conditions of human life cannot be imagined without the presence of natural gas like fuel. Ecological cleanliness, good thermal conductivity, easy transportability, relatively low price and other positive properties make it indispensable in many areas of human life, industry and power industry.

World leaders in natural gas production in the world

The main consumers are geographically located outside the districts. This is due to the geography of the distribution of industry and the electric power industry, as well as the population density in a particular region.

Since the 1970s, the largest volumes of consumption have been in three regions the globe: North America, Foreign Europe and CIS countries. Of these regions, only the United States of America and Canada can fully supply themselves with the necessary reserve of the fuel resource. In other regions, large consumption is not at the expense of their own resources - exports from producing countries prevail.

The diagram shows the main areas of gas production in the world; individual countries. In total, all indicators are taken as 100%, not counting the rest of the territories, which account for a small amount of development. The unit of measure in the chart is billion cubic meters.

In terms of natural gas production, more than 25% of the world belongs to the United States, which occupy a leading position. The second place is occupied by Russia, which accounts for about 20 percent of the total production of the ten leading regions.

The position of countries in the list of leaders in gas production does not at all mean the leadership of these states in the world fuel trade, that is, exports to other regions of the world. For 2016, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries compiled a rating of states that are export-oriented, of which eight are the leaders.

About 1,200 billion cubic meters of gas are concentrated in the twenty largest gas fields. The geography of areas that are rich in this natural resource is confined to the territories of the following states of the world:

  1. Russia. 9 of the 20 largest fuel deposits are located on the lands Russian Federation. Most of them were opened in the 60-80s of the last century. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, three new large deposits were discovered in Russia, which were included in the TOP-20: West Kamchatskoye, Leningradskoye and Rusanovskoye (read also -).
  2. USA. There are 4 largest deposits in the sub-region, which were discovered in the mid-1960s, and began to be intensively used at the end of the 20th century.
  3. Qatar and Iran. There are two rich places here, one of which simultaneously occupies the state lands of Qatar and Iran.
  4. Turkmenistan. Just one rich place that is among the leaders in terms of gas reserves.
  5. China. One large deposit, which was discovered in 2008 and ranked tenth in the TOP-20 states in terms of resource reserves ().
  6. Algeria. The last three lines in the ranking are occupied by regions of Algeria. Hassi Mel is the oldest in the country, discovered back in 1957, but to this day, and the largest in terms of its reserves in Algeria. Two others were opened in 2004 and 2006.

The first place in the list of the largest deposits is occupied by North or South Pars, which is located within two countries at once - Qatar and Iran, as well as in the water area of ​​the Persian oil and gas basin and the Gulf. It was discovered in 1991 and currently its reserves exceed 270 billion cubic meters. The Persian Gulf is a world giant not only in terms of the presence of deposits, but also in terms of production in the Asian oil and gas region.

After the opening in 2006 of a new place Galkynysh in Turkmenistan, it took second place in the list of world leaders. It owns 210 billion cubic meters of the resource, the deposits of which are located within the Murghab oil and gas basin.

The third place belongs to the Russian Federation, namely the Urengoy region, confined to the West Siberian oil and gas basin. It was discovered in 1996, in 2016 its reserves amount to 10.2 trillion cubic meters.

The main areas of gas production in the world

Below is a map that reflects the geography of distribution of the largest gas fields throughout the globe. The main deposits of blue fuel are concentrated within the leading countries in terms of annual .

The largest mineral reserves are located within the following deposits on the planet:

  • Gulf of Mexico and Alaska in the United States of America;
  • in the Russian Federation, southern and northern regions Western Siberia, territories Far East and Sakhalin, the shelves of two seas - the Barents and Kara;
  • deposits located within Iran, Qatar and Saudi Arabia of the Persian Gulf;
  • the southern regions of Turkmenistan, whose minerals are exported to three countries - Poland, Ukraine and Hungary;
  • Algeria and Nigeria are the only sub-regions in Africa with natural gas deposits. Fuel is different here high quality, in which there is no high content of harmful impurities and slags;
  • in the North Sea of ​​Norway. The volumes of natural gas deposits are considered the largest in Europe;
  • on the lands of Canada there are several largest areas within the island of Newfoundland of the northern provinces, including the shelf of the Western Canadian Basin;
  • in China, the main areas of gas production are concentrated in the Tari Basin

OPEC statistics indicate that with the growing consumption of blue fuel on the planet, the remaining reserves will only last for the next 65 years. In all state deposits, there are no more than 180 trillion cubic meters of combustible matter. More than 120 trillion - fuel reserves that have not yet been explored, since they lie at a very great depth in earth's crust and is virtually unavailable for global production.

GAZInform Authors: Yu.N. Kuznichenkov "NEOLANT West" Over the past 20 years, the share of natural gas in the world energy balance increased from 19% to 24%. According to the forecasts of a number of experts, it will continue to gradually increase to 26-28% by 2020 and 30% by 2050. However, it should be taken into account that the scale and structure of consumption energy resources in the global economy undergo significant changes over time under the influence of supply and demand. Demand forms supply Among the factors of demand for natural gas, the pace of development of the world economy and its energy-intensive industries - the electric power industry, the chemical industry, the metallurgical industry and some others - are decisive. Demand is also affected by the consumption of the service sector, the public sector and households, and in these segments of the economy there is a multidirectional effect of many factors. On the one hand, new Energy Saving Technologies and goods appearing on the market reduce the demand for natural gas, and on the other hand, an increase in the energy supply of the service sector, the public sector and households leads to its growth. Structural shifts in the consumption of energy resources towards an increase in the share of natural gas are also associated with changes in the supply of energy resources. Along with traditional energy sources (oil, gas, coal) in last years A wide range of non-traditional types of energy has appeared on the market, such as coal-bed methane, associated petroleum and shale gases. In 2010, gas consumption in North America and Europe came close to the record levels of previous years. Of course, in many cases, gas producers were helped by a cold snap, but the main reason for the growth is still the recovery of the economy and the demand for gas as a fuel in the short and long term. The Asian market is leading the recovery of gas consumption after the financial crisis. The main consumers of gas are industrial the developed countries Europe, America and Asia: approximately 70% are in these regions. Forecasts show that the largest growth in gas consumption is expected in the Asia-Pacific and Middle East markets - 3-4% per year. In contrast, market growth in North America and Europe is expected to be the lowest at around 0.4-0.8% per annum. For Russia, gas is the main fuel: its share in primary energy consumption is 55.2%, which is very high by world standards: in any case, among developed countries, no one else has such a high share of gas in the fuel balance, including those not deprived of gas powers such as the UK (where the share of gas is 40%), the Netherlands (38%), Canada (27%), the USA (26%) and Norway (only 9%, due to the dominance of hydropower). Largest natural gas consuming countries, billion cubic meters However, against the background of countries such as Iran, where gas also provides 55% of all primary energy, or Algeria, where its share is 60%, Russia looks quite organic. And when compared with the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan or Belarus, then it is generally impossible to say that everything in Russia is heated by gas. However, gas consumption in Russia is gigantic. Suffice it to say that it is equal to the consumption of Germany, France, Italy, Japan, China and India combined. Russia annually burns and processes 420 billion cubic meters of gas, second only to the United States in this indicator. Exporters and Importers The natural gas market essentially consists of two markets: the pipeline gas market and the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market. The main gas exporters are five regions, and the main gas importers are six to seven countries. The main and largest exporter of pipeline gas is currently Russia, which provides more than 36% of world exports. Five countries (Canada, the Netherlands, Norway, Russia and Algeria) supply more than 94% of natural gas to the world market. On the other hand, five other countries (USA, Belgium, France, Germany and Italy) import about 72% of the gas supplied to the world market. In the LNG market, the main exporters are Qatar, Algeria, Indonesia and Malaysia, Australia and Russia, providing 71% of world exports. At the same time, only two countries - Japan and South Korea- import 71% of LNG supplied to the market. In general, the global LNG market is 75% the market of the Asia-Pacific countries. First of all, it should be noted that, unlike the oil market, which can rightly be called global, gas markets have a fairly clear regional character. We can speak with confidence about the American, European and Asian international markets, about the domestic market of Russia and the CIS countries. World trade in natural gas, billion cubic meters m. Dynamics of world gas prices World natural gas prices vary depending on regional characteristics and circumstances, but the generally accepted gas price, which is used as a reference in financial contracts, is the price used on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). His official name- Henry Hub Natural Gas. The price for this contract is based on supplies from the Henry Hub gas storage facility in Louisiana. It should also be noted that the unified world natural gas market as such has not yet been formed. The main obstacles to the creation of a global gas system are related to the long distances of gas supplies and the high specific gravity transport infrastructure in economic indicators natural gas. Thus, in the cost of natural gas supplied to Western Europe from Norway, transmission and distribution networks account for up to 70% of all costs. With comparable transportation capacities, the transport part of the cost of gas, due to the lower flow density, turns out to be almost two times higher than that of oil. Because of this feature and the price in different regions is not the same. World natural gas prices are rising due to increasing demand from Japan after an earthquake in the country led to the suspension of 11 nuclear reactors. In Britain, gas contracts with the supply of gas rose by 7.4% - up to 74 pence per therm. There has not been such a sharp jump since November 2008. In New York, April gas contracts rose 3.8% to $4.037. per million Btu. After the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, the demand for energy carriers increased, which led to an increase in spot gas prices. Japan is the world's largest LNG consumer. The country accounted for almost 35% of total gas imports in 2009. Russia sells gas almost exclusively under long-term contracts (up to 30 years or more, with strictly agreed volumes). And for a long time there was no alternative to this mechanism - at least in Europe. However, now Europe is buying more and more volumes on the spot market (a market with immediate delivery of goods and virtually no volume limits). Trading through the spot market does not allow the producer to plan production volumes and profit margins. This situation is especially dangerous today, when gas producers are engaged in the development Eastern Siberia and ocean shelves. The cost of production is getting more expensive, and before investing in new deposits, the producer must be sure that he will be guaranteed sales for certain volumes for a long time. Gas prices for 1990-2009, mln. USA Gas prices for 1990-2009, mln. USA It is clear that the spot market, unlike the market for long-term contracts, cannot give such guarantees. The consequence of this is a decrease in work in hard-to-reach gas-bearing areas. The spot market craze could be damaging energy security Europe. On the other hand, consumers can also be understood. Last year prices for long-term contracts were higher than spot ones by 100-200 US dollars. There is another factor in the growth of consumer interest in the spot market - this is the development of the market liquefied gas and reducing overhead costs in its production. Under these conditions, Russian gas suppliers will have to recognize the competitive LNG market as a marker for gas prices. Soon 15% of Russian gas will be supplied at prices linked to the spot market. Gas Market Forecast Speaking about the prospects for gas in the global energy balance, it can be noted that gas is now regaining its positions and will remain in them for several decades to come. There is a transition from the oil balance to the gas one. At the same time, almost all experts note that the gas market will undergo very serious changes in the near future. Liquefied and shale gas s. Analyzing patent applications filed in recent times, we can come to the following conclusion: “If patents turn into technologies in 15 years, then the energy consumption of the traditional sector will increase by 9%, alternative energy by 12%, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) by 30%” (behind the starting point adopted in 2008). Large-scale investments made during the period of high gas prices made it possible to bring additional volumes of LNG to the world market: supply growth in 2009 amounted to 16%. According to BP forecasts, LNG production could almost double by 2020, reaching 476 bcm. According to CERA (Cambridge Energy Research Associates) estimates, the share of LNG in the European market could grow from 11% in 2008 to 36% by 2035. The arrival of shale gas in the global balance will seriously affect Russian gas companies. Projects for the construction of gas liquefaction facilities in Yamal and the Shtokman field provide for the supply of up to 80% of liquefied gas to the United States. But now the forecasts for gas imports to America have undergone a significant correction, gas from Yamal and Shtokman may not be in demand, or its price will be lower than the forecast values. It should be noted that a number of experts doubt that shale gas will play such a prominent role in the global hydrocarbon markets. In particular, the formation of shale gas deposits requires a rare combination natural conditions. This means that there may not be so many of these deposits in the world. And those that are, "short-lived." Already in the first year, the volume of production at the well drops by 70%, and after 10-12 years the well will cease to operate. Shale gas will not be present on the market in significant volumes for long. This means that the liquefied gas industry in Russia needs to be developed. Growing world demand for natural gas By 2035, demand for gas will amount to 5.132 trillion cubic meters. against 3.1 trillion cubic meters. for 2008. More than 80% of this growth will come from countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. By 2035, demand for natural gas will equal that of the European Union. Comparable to Chinese demand will appear in the countries of the Middle East. According to the IEA, by 2035 Russia will become the largest producer of natural gas (881 billion cubic meters compared to 662 billion cubic meters in 2010). Gas consumption in the Russian Federation will amount to 528 billion cubic meters. by 2035 (453 billion in 2010). In 2035, more than 90% of gas in Russia will be produced from traditional sources. Globally, about 40% of demand by 2035 will be met by gas supplies from non-traditional sources, according to the IEA. At the same time, it is now time for Russian gas to change. Thus, gross gas production in Russia in last year fell by 12.4%, including Gazprom reduced production by 16%. This has not been observed in Russia for a quarter of a century. The crisis contraction of demand in world markets, in particular in Europe, does not explain everything, because gas production in the United States grew last year. The main reason is fundamental changes in the world gas markets. In recent years, it has become clear that the stability of gas supplies and prices based on long-term contracts does not allow the energy sector to effectively adapt to changes in the global economy, and the gas business is too dependent on geopolitical issues. The most important and, until recently, rather isolated than connected with each other, the US and EU markets began to noticeably change their configuration, the interdependence between them began to grow. New gas products are entering the market, transport routes are changing. Gas transportation schemes are also rapidly changing. Gas pipeline deliveries are being replaced by LNG tankers. If earlier the main geopolitical problems of the gas complex were disagreements with transit countries over the prices of transit and pipeline gas released for domestic consumption of these countries, now, when spot LNG supplies can affect contract prices and the terms of the contract themselves, geopolitical relations have acquired a more complex dimension. . That is, the former market - the seller's market - is a thing of the past. For the first time in decades, European gas imports fell, and there was a reduction in purchases of gas from pipelines. Gas supplies by Gazprom to the EU in the first quarter of 2010 decreased by 39%. The share of the Russian concern in the EU market fell by 4-5%, which is explained by the energy saving policy pursued by the EU, as well as the emergence of new sources of natural gas on the world market. Where will the "swing" swing? The "consumer-producer" swing in the natural gas trade has now shifted towards the consumer, the producer's task is to adequately respond to the new conditions of the gas market, fully engage in it and restore the export energy potential of our country. To do this, it is necessary, first of all, to recognize that self-regulation operates even in this seemingly monopoly market. Finally, changes in the global gas markets require a fundamental revision of Russia's energy policy. After all, the possibilities of extensive development and mechanical distribution of the structures and traditional technologies of the fuel and energy complex to new fields and areas of consumption are declining. Emphasis is needed on the development of new technologies, requiring more active partnerships with Western companies. And gas itself is turning from a monopoly commodity into a commodity of the world market, and therefore investment policy should become an instrument of cooperation with neighboring countries and consumer countries. A serious change in the balance of supply and demand will inevitably affect prices. The United States can serve as an example of this, where since the beginning of active shale gas production, the price for it has fallen three times, falling almost to its own cost - from about $212 per thousand cubic meters to $70. “The sharp increase in gas production has already led to a collapse in prices to historic lows, making the development of many fields economically unattractive,” the head of the Global Energy department told DW. Energy Center Skolkovo Business School Tatyana Mitrova. Today, the US shale business is mainly run by small independent companies. The fall in the average gas price and the complexity of production often affect the profitability of their business. However, many companies continue drilling. “Total shale gas production in the US is growing, which means that it makes economic sense,” Tatiana Mitrova notes. Mike Wood, in response to a question from DW, added that "not all companies in the US are good at maintaining profitability, but it's a natural Darwinian process." The market, he said, is still in motion, but prices are likely to remain low. For Europe, of course, it did not go unnoticed that gas prices in the US are almost six times lower than the price it pays under long-term contracts to Gazprom (by the end of the year, the average price will reach $415 per thousand cubic meters). Hence - and active search opportunities for diversification of imports, and pressure on the Russian monopolist - both through the courts and through regulatory bodies, such as the Antimonopoly Committee of the European Commission. Gazprom is still looking at the shale race with condescending detachment. At the beginning of this year, Alexander Medvedev, deputy chairman of the board of the company, said: “In Russia, we put off the production of shale gas on the back burner, and maybe in 50-70 years we will return to this again.” According to him, Gazprom's traditional reserves are ten times more efficient than the development of shale gas reserves. Meanwhile, refusing to participate in shale projects, the company runs the risk of simultaneously losing the existing sales market. A serious wake-up call was the actual failure of the Shtokman project. “The first result of the “shale revolution” for Russia is the transition North America from an energy-deficient to an energy-surplus state, - explains Skolkovo expert Tatyana Mitrova. “Accordingly, the need for projects focused on LNG supplies to the American market has disappeared, and Shtokman is the most striking example of this.” According to her, shale gas will inevitably lead to increased competition in export markets. http://www..php?ID=1388

Over the past 20 years, the share of natural gas in the global energy mix has increased from 19% to 24%. According to the forecasts of a number of experts, it will continue to gradually increase to 26-28% by 2020 and 30% by 2050.

However, it should be taken into account that the scale and structure of consumption of energy resources in the world economy undergo significant changes over time under the influence of supply and demand.

Demand creates supply

Among the factors of demand for natural gas, the determining factors are the pace of development of the world economy and its energy-intensive industries - the electric power industry, the chemical industry, the metallurgical industry and some others. Demand is also affected by the consumption of the service sector, the public sector and households, and in these segments of the economy there is a multidirectional effect of many factors. On the one hand, new energy-saving technologies and products appearing on the market reduce the demand for natural gas, and on the other hand, an increase in the energy availability of the service sector, the public sector and households leads to its growth.

Structural shifts in the consumption of energy resources towards an increase in the share of natural gas are also associated with changes in the supply of energy resources. Along with traditional energy sources (oil, gas, coal), a wide range of non-traditional types of energy, such as coal-bed methane, associated petroleum and shale gases, has appeared on the market in recent years.

In 2010, gas consumption in North America and Europe came close to the record levels of previous years. Of course, in many cases, gas producers were helped by a cold snap, but the main reason for the growth is still the recovery of the economy and the demand for gas as a fuel in the short and long term. The Asian market is leading the recovery of gas consumption after the financial crisis.

The main consumers of gas are the industrialized countries of Europe, America and Asia: approximately 70% is accounted for by these regions. Forecasts show that the largest growth in gas consumption is expected in the Asia-Pacific and Middle East markets - 3-4% per year. In contrast, market growth in North America and Europe is expected to be the lowest at around 0.4-0.8% per annum.

For Russia, gas is the main fuel: its share in primary energy consumption is 55.2%, which is very high by world standards: in any case, among developed countries, no one else has such a high share of gas in the fuel balance, including those not deprived of gas powers such as the UK (where the share of gas is 40%), the Netherlands (38%), Canada (27%), the USA (26%) and Norway (only 9%, due to the dominance of hydropower).

Largest natural gas consuming countries, billion cubic meters m.

Largest natural gas consuming countries, billion cubic meters m.

However, against the background of countries such as Iran, where gas also provides 55% of all primary energy, or Algeria, where its share is 60%, Russia looks quite organic. And when compared with the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan or Belarus, then it is generally impossible to say that everything in Russia is heated by gas.

However, gas consumption in Russia is gigantic. Suffice it to say that it is equal to the consumption of Germany, France, Italy, Japan, China and India combined. Russia annually burns and processes 420 billion cubic meters of gas, second only to the United States in this indicator.

Exporters and Importers

The natural gas market essentially consists of two markets: the pipeline gas market and the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market. The main gas exporters are five regions, and the main gas importers are six to seven countries.

The main and largest exporter of pipeline gas is currently Russia, which provides more than 36% of world exports. Five countries (Canada, the Netherlands, Norway, Russia and Algeria) supply more than 94% of natural gas to the world market. On the other hand, five other countries (USA, Belgium, France, Germany and Italy) import about 72% of the gas supplied to the world market.

In the LNG market, the main exporters are Qatar, Algeria, Indonesia and Malaysia, Australia and Russia, providing 71% of world exports. At the same time, only two countries - Japan and South Korea - import 71% of LNG supplied to the market. In general, the global LNG market is 75% the market of the Asia-Pacific countries. First of all, it should be noted that, unlike the oil market, which can rightly be called global, gas markets have a fairly clear regional character. We can speak with confidence about the American, European and Asian international markets, about the domestic market of Russia and the CIS countries.

World trade in natural gas, billion cubic meters m.

World trade in natural gas, billion cubic meters m.

Dynamics of world gas prices

World natural gas prices vary by region and circumstance, but the generally accepted gas price that is used as a reference in financial contracts is the price that is used on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). Its official name is Henry Hub Natural Gas. The price for this contract is based on supplies from the Henry Hub gas storage facility in Louisiana.

It should also be noted that the unified world natural gas market as such has not yet been formed. The main obstacles to the creation of a global gas system are related to the long distances of gas supplies and the high share of transport infrastructure in the economic indicators of natural gas. Thus, in the cost of natural gas supplied to Western Europe from Norway, the share of trunk and distribution networks accounts for up to 70% of all costs. With comparable transportation capacities, the transport part of the cost of gas, due to the lower flow density, turns out to be almost two times higher than that of oil. Because of this feature, the price in different regions is not the same.

World natural gas prices are rising due to increasing demand from Japan after an earthquake in the country led to the suspension of 11 nuclear reactors.

In Britain, gas contracts with the supply of gas rose by 7.4% - up to 74 pence per therm. There has not been such a sharp jump since November 2008. In New York, April gas contracts rose 3.8% to $4.037. per million Btu.

After the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, the demand for energy carriers increased, which led to an increase in spot gas prices. Japan is the world's largest LNG consumer. The country accounted for almost 35% of total gas imports in 2009.

Russia sells gas almost exclusively under long-term contracts (up to 30 years or more, with strictly agreed volumes). And for a long time there was no alternative to this mechanism - at least in Europe. However, now Europe is buying more and more volumes on the spot market (a market with immediate delivery of goods and virtually no volume limits).

Trading through the spot market does not allow the producer to plan production volumes and profit margins. Such a situation is especially dangerous today, when gas producers are engaged in the development of Eastern Siberia and ocean shelves. The cost of production is getting more expensive, and before investing in new deposits, the producer must be sure that he will be guaranteed sales for certain volumes for a long time.

It is clear that the spot market, unlike the market for long-term contracts, cannot give such guarantees. The consequence of this is a decrease in work in hard-to-reach gas-bearing areas. The spot market craze could harm Europe's energy security. On the other hand, consumers can also be understood. Last year prices for long-term contracts were higher than spot ones by 100-200 US dollars. There is another factor in the growth of consumer interest in the spot market - this is the development of the liquefied gas market and the reduction of overhead costs in its production. Under these conditions, Russian gas suppliers will have to recognize the competitive LNG market as a marker for gas prices. Soon 15% of Russian gas will be supplied at prices linked to the spot market.

Gas Market Forecast

Speaking about the prospects of gas in the global energy balance, it can be noted that gas is now regaining its positions and will remain in them for several decades. There is a transition from the oil balance to the gas one.

At the same time, almost all experts note that the gas market will undergo very serious changes in the near future. Liquefied and shale gases will play an important role in it.

Analyzing patent applications filed recently, one can come to the following conclusion: “If in 15 years patents turn into technologies, then the energy consumption of the traditional sector will increase by 9%, alternative energy - by 12%, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) - by 30%” (2008 was taken as the starting point).

Large-scale investments made during the period of high gas prices made it possible to bring additional volumes of LNG to the world market: supply growth in 2009 amounted to 16%. According to BP forecasts, LNG production could almost double by 2020, reaching 476 bcm. According to CERA (Cambridge Energy Research Associates) estimates, the share of LNG in the European market could grow from 11% in 2008 to 36% by 2035.

The arrival of shale gas in the world balance will seriously affect Russian gas companies. Projects for the construction of gas liquefaction facilities in Yamal and the Shtokman field provide for the supply of up to 80% of liquefied gas to the United States. But now the forecasts for gas imports to America have undergone a significant correction, gas from Yamal and Shtokman may not be in demand, or its price will be lower than the forecast values.

It should be noted that a number of experts doubt that shale gas will play such a prominent role in the global hydrocarbon markets. In particular, the formation of shale gas deposits requires a rare combination of natural conditions. This means that there may not be so many of these deposits in the world. And those that are, "short-lived." Already in the first year, the volume of production at the well drops by 70%, and after 10-12 years the well will cease to operate. Shale gas will not be present on the market in significant volumes for long. This means that the liquefied gas industry in Russia needs to be developed.

Growing global demand for natural gas

By 2035, the demand for gas will amount to 5.132 trillion cubic meters. against 3.1 trillion cubic meters. for 2008. More than 80% of this growth will come from countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. By 2035, demand for natural gas will equal that of the European Union. Comparable to Chinese demand will appear in the countries of the Middle East.

According to the IEA, by 2035 Russia will become the largest producer of natural gas (881 billion cubic meters compared to 662 billion cubic meters in 2010). Gas consumption in the Russian Federation will amount to 528 billion cubic meters. by 2035 (453 billion in 2010). In 2035, more than 90% of gas in Russia will be produced from traditional sources. On a global scale, about 40% of demand by 2035 will be met by gas supplies from unconventional sources, according to the IEA.

At the same time, it is now time for Russian gas to change. Thus, gross gas production in Russia last year fell by 12.4%, including Gazprom reduced production by 16%. This has not been observed in Russia for a quarter of a century. The crisis contraction of demand in world markets, in particular in Europe, does not explain everything, because gas production in the United States grew last year. The main reason is fundamental changes in the world gas markets.

In recent years, it has become clear that the stability of gas supplies and prices based on long-term contracts does not allow the energy sector to effectively adapt to changes in the global economy, and the gas business is too dependent on geopolitical issues. The most important and, until recently, rather isolated than connected with each other, the US and EU markets began to noticeably change their configuration, the interdependence between them began to grow. New gas products are entering the market, transport routes are changing. Gas transportation schemes are also rapidly changing.

Gas pipeline deliveries are being replaced by LNG tankers. If earlier the main geopolitical problems of the gas complex were disagreements with transit countries over the prices of transit and pipeline gas released for domestic consumption of these countries, now, when spot LNG supplies can affect contract prices and the terms of the contract themselves, geopolitical relations have acquired a more complex dimension. . That is, the former market - the seller's market - is a thing of the past. For the first time in decades, European gas imports fell, and there was a reduction in purchases of gas from pipelines. Gas supplies by Gazprom to the EU in the first quarter of 2010 decreased by 39%. The share of the Russian concern in the EU market fell by 4-5%, which is explained by the energy saving policy pursued by the EU, as well as the emergence of new sources of natural gas on the world market.

Where will the "swing" swing?

The "consumer-producer" swing in the natural gas trade has now shifted towards the consumer, the producer's task is to adequately respond to the new conditions of the gas market, fully engage in it and restore the export energy potential of our country. To do this, it is necessary, first of all, to recognize that self-regulation operates even in this seemingly monopoly market.

Finally, changes in the global gas markets require a fundamental revision of Russia's energy policy. After all, the possibilities of extensive development and mechanical distribution of the structures and traditional technologies of the fuel and energy complex to new fields and areas of consumption are declining. Emphasis is needed on the development of new technologies, requiring more active partnerships with Western companies. And gas itself is turning from a monopoly commodity into a commodity on the world market, and therefore investment policy should become an instrument of cooperation with neighboring countries and consumer countries.

A serious change in the balance of supply and demand will inevitably affect prices. The United States can serve as an example of this, where since the beginning of active shale gas production, the price for it has fallen three times, falling almost to its own cost - from about $212 per thousand cubic meters to $70. “The sharp increase in gas production has already led to a collapse in prices to historic lows, making the development of many fields economically unattractive,” Tatiana Mitrova, head of the Global Energy Department at the Energy Center of the Skolkovo Business School, told DW.

Today, the US shale business is mainly run by small independent companies. The fall in the average gas price and the complexity of production often affect the profitability of their business. However, many companies continue drilling. “Total shale gas production in the US is growing, which means that it makes economic sense,” Tatiana Mitrova notes. Mike Wood, in response to a question from DW, added that "not all companies in the US are good at maintaining profitability, but it's a natural Darwinian process." The market, he said, is still in motion, but prices are likely to remain low.

For Europe, of course, it did not go unnoticed that gas prices in the US are almost six times lower than the price it pays under long-term contracts to Gazprom (by the end of the year, the average price will reach $415 per thousand cubic meters). Hence - and an active search for opportunities to diversify imports, and pressure on the Russian monopolist - both through the courts and through regulatory bodies, such as, for example, the Antimonopoly Committee of the European Commission.

Gazprom is still looking at the shale race with condescending detachment. At the beginning of this year, Alexander Medvedev, deputy chairman of the board of the company, said: “In Russia, we put off the production of shale gas on the back burner, and maybe in 50-70 years we will return to this again.” According to him, Gazprom's traditional reserves are ten times more efficient than the development of shale gas reserves.

Meanwhile, refusing to participate in shale projects, the company runs the risk of simultaneously losing the existing sales market. A serious wake-up call was the actual failure of the Shtokman project. “The first result of the “shale revolution” for Russia is the transition of North America from an energy-deficient to an energy-surplus state,” explains Skolkovo expert Tatyana Mitrova. “Accordingly, the need for projects focused on LNG supplies to the American market has disappeared, and Shtokman is the most striking example of this.” According to her, shale gas will inevitably lead to increased competition in export markets.

Iran, United United Arab Emirates, Russia, Algeria, Venezuela, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iraq and Turkmenistan. What do this group of countries have in common? The answer is simple: huge explored reserves of minerals, the revenues from which generously fill the national budgets of these states, "blue gold" - natural gas.

World gas empires. Countries with significant natural gas reserves (EIA \ FranchExpert © 2012):

No. 1. Russian Federation .

In the post-Soviet space, Russia (Urengoyskoye field) and Turkmenistan have huge natural gas reserves, and also have significant natural gas fields of their own: Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan (Karachaganak field).

Russia's share in the global gas production market is more than 18% (1st place), the share of the world's proven natural gas reserves is 25% (of which 95% are in the Arctic). In terms of oil reserves, Russia's position is more modest: 5.3% of the world's oil reserves (8th place on the planet, of which 60% are in the Arctic) .

The Urengoy natural gas field is the 3rd in the world (total geological reserves - 16 trillion m³ of natural gas).
Location: Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug of the Tyumen Region of the Russian Federation.
Production is carried out by OOO Gazprom dobycha Urengoy (100% subsidiary of OAO Gazprom).

No. 2. Islamic Republic of Iran .

Islamic Republic of Iran :

More than 16% of the world's natural gas reserves. The main deposits are located on the shelf of the Persian Gulf and in the north-east of the country;
It is planned to build the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline by the end of 2014. Projects suspended in 2012 (under pressure from the US and its allies in Europe): gas supplies through Ukraine to the EU, extension of the existing gas pipeline (gas supplies to Armenia and Azerbaijan) through Turkey to Greece;
more than 10% of the world's proven oil reserves. 2nd place in oil production among OPEC countries. The largest supplier of oil to China;
Iran is the largest economy in Asia. In terms of GDP, it is second only to China, Japan, India, Turkey, Indonesia and South Korea;
there are restrictions on human rights, primarily related to religion. For example, in the system state structure there is a special body - the Council of the Guardians of the Constitution, which prohibits non-Muslims from holding the highest government posts, and members of parliament from drawing up bills that are contrary to Sharia;
According to the Iranian Constitution (Article 13), in addition to Islam, only 3 religions are recognized: Christianity, Judaism and Zoroastrianism. Iran ranks second in the world (after China) in terms of the number of executions for serious crimes.

No. 3. Qatar .

Qatar - the pearl of the Persian Gulf :

3rd place in the world in terms of natural gas reserves, 6th exporter of natural gas in the world;
a major exporter of oil and oil products (OPEC member);
No. 1 country in the world in terms of “average per capita income” \ richest state in the world;
form of government - absolute monarchy;
Qatari satellite television, Al Jazeera, is the leading media outlet in the Middle East.

No. 4. Saudi Arabia .

More than 25% of proven oil reserves (more than 260 billion barrels), 4th place in terms of natural gas reserves on Earth;
OPEC leader. The main regulator of world oil prices;
an active defender and lobbyist for the interests of Islam throughout the world. "Country of 2 mosques" (two main holy cities Islamic world Mecca and Medina);
absolute theocratic monarchy, welfare state;
is among the top 10 countries in the world in terms of funding armed forces;
a key ally of the United States in the Middle East and, at the same time, the homeland former leader Al-Qaeda terrorist organization Osama bin Laden. Diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and the Vatican were only established in 2007;
the law prohibits oral or written discussions of existing political system, use and trade in alcohol and drugs. criminal law is based on sharia; for theft - cutting off the brush, for extramarital sexual relations are punishable - lashes, for murder, blasphemy and "witchcraft" (prediction of the future, fortune-telling) - the death penalty.

No. 5. Turkmenistan .

Turkmenistan is the 5th state in the world in terms of natural gas reserves (according to some estimates, the 4th). Has the 2nd largest gas field in the world .

Briefly about Turkmenistan:

Huge reserves of natural gas (15-20 trillion cubic meters) and oil (1.5-2.0 billion tons) have turned Turkmenistan into an important exporter of fuel resources. Main buyers: Ukraine, Poland, Hungary;
power incumbent president Turkmenistan Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov - absolute. Turkmenistan retains one of the most repressive and authoritarian regimes in the world. © Human Rights Watch;
According to the Press Freedom Index, Turkmenistan is at the bottom of the list every year. © Reporters Without Borders

No. 6. United Arab Emirates .

6th in the world in terms of proven gas reserves (about 4% of the world's reserves \ proven natural gas reserves - more than 214 trillion cubic feet). The main natural gas production sites are the emirate of Abu Dhabi: Abu al-Bukhush, Bab, Bu Khasa, Umm Shaif, Zakum. The Abu Dhabi National Company controls more than 90% of the country's gas reserves;
5th in terms of proven oil reserves in the Middle East (No. 1 -Saudi Arabia, No. 2 - Iran, No. 3 - Iraq, No. 4 - Kuwait, No. 5 - Qatar, No. 6 - Oman);
8 - 10% (according to various estimates) of world oil reserves (66 billion barrels, most of Emirate of Abu Dhabi). The UAE is a member of OPEC and at the current level of oil production, the UAE's oil reserves will last for more than 100 years! ABU Dhabi National Company (ADNOC) controls oil industry countries. The main oil fields: the emirate of Abu Dhabi (Asab, Bab, Bu Khasa, Al-Zakum), the emirate of Dubai (Fallah, Fateh, Margham, Rashid), the emirate of Sharjah ("Mubarak" - not far from Abu Musa Island);
the leading economic center of the Middle East and the richest state on the planet. GDP per capita since the 70s. 20th century has grown more than 20 times! Main trading partners: Japan, Great Britain, Italy, Germany, South Korea. Fish consumption is one of the highest in the world - 140 kg/year per capita;
The UAE is included in the group of non-aligned countries and acts with a position of "absolute neutrality" (preservation of "equidistance" from the West and East).

No. 7. Nigeria .

Nigeria :

1st place in Africa in terms of explored reserves of natural gas (more than 5 trillion cubic meters), 7th place in the world - in terms of export volumes;
1st place in Africa in terms of oil exports (before the state collapse in 2011, Libya occupied the 1st place), 2nd place in Africa in terms of proven oil reserves (after Libya);
Nigeria is one of the main suppliers of oil to Western Europe and an important exporter of crude oil to the US, Brazil and India. Member of OPEC;
in terms of population - 7th place in the world and No. 1 - in Africa: more than 162 million people;
in 2nd place in the world in terms of the number of feature films released (inferior in the number of India, but bypasses the United States).

2012 © "EIA" Energy Information Administration. Reference to the source for a reprint of materials required

Natural gas production by the countries of the world (source - the free encyclopedia "Wikipedia" 2006-2011, including using the estimates of the CIA (USA) published in the World Book of Facts ( The World factbook):

As of September 2008, they were Russia, Canada and Norway, annually supplying the world market with 182.0 billion, 101.9 billion and 86.7 billion cubic meters of this type of energy resources, respectively.

Approximately three-quarters of all explored natural gas reserves are located in former USSR and Middle East. Russia and Iran account for 45% of world reserves. Although the world's reserves of natural gas are significant, they are located far from the regions of the world where the demand for natural gas is growing most rapidly. Enormous investments are required to develop these deposits. One of the biggest problems is that gas transmission projects tend to be very capital intensive - building a gas pipeline can take decades. The International Energy Agency claims that to meet the world's natural gas needs in 2030, an investment of $3.1 trillion is required between 2001 and 2030, or $105 billion annually.

These are special ships on which gas is transported in a liquefied state under certain thermobaric conditions. Thus, in order to transport gas in this way, it is necessary to stretch a gas pipeline to the seashore, build a liquefied gas plant, a port for tankers, and the tankers themselves on the coast. This type of transport is considered economically justified when the distance of the consumer of liquefied gas is more than 3000 km.

In the pipeline gas sector, suppliers are tightly tied to consumers through pipelines. And the prices for deliveries are determined by long-term contracts. Approximately the same relations have developed today in the LNG sector. About 90% of LNG is also sold on the basis of long-term contracts.

LNG suppliers benefit from savings on shipping costs. Under favorable conditions, the price of gas delivery by tanker can be almost an order of magnitude lower than the price of delivery via a gas pipeline. Comparison transport costs using LNG and LNG carriers shows that costs increase at a much lower rate as transportation distances increase, confirming the attractiveness of the new liquefied natural gas market. On the contrary, the laying of both land and underwater pipelines increases the cost of traditional natural gas much faster with increasing distances.

Meanwhile, the republics also intend to send part of the exported gas to the European direction. Central Asia - Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. By 2010, Turkmenistan intends to increase the total volume of "blue fuel" supplied to foreign markets from 50 billion to 100 billion cubic meters, and by 2020 - up to 140 billion cubic meters (Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan plan to increase exports to 25 billion cubic meters by 2015 and 20 billion cubic meters, respectively).

In April 2008, at a meeting of the EU Troika and Central Asian states in the capital of Turkmenistan, the formation of a new Caspian-Black Sea energy corridor from Central Asia to the EU borders was announced.

As a result of this meeting official representatives The EU said Turkmenistan has reserved 10 billion cubic meters of gas for Europe since 2009.

Main gas resource Azerbaijan - largest deposit Shah Deniz, located in the Azerbaijani sector of the Caspian Sea. In 2008, it is planned to supply a total of 3 billion cubic meters of gas from Shah Deniz. From 2009, when the peak of gas production within the framework of Stage-1 of the Shah Deniz development starts, Georgia will be supplied with 0.8 billion cubic meters, Turkey - 6.6 billion cubic meters.

At present, the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzerum gas pipeline is designed for throughput 9 billion cubic meters of gas per year. BP‑Azerbaijan and the State oil company Azerbaijan is considering the possibility of increasing the capacity of the pipeline to 16-20 billion cubic meters per year.

In Asia, most of the gas is delivered to consumers in liquefied form (suitable for transportation by sea). The largest consumers of liquefied natural gas are Japan and South Korea.

The largest producers and exporters of liquefied natural gas are Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Indonesia, Malaysia, Trinidad and Tobago.

The average cost of 1 thousand cubic meters of gas from some of its suppliers is:

Russia has 200-500 dollars;

Norway has $700;

Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan - $340;

Azerbaijan has 300 dollars.