There will be no heat. Bashgidromet: “Cold weather will last until the third decade of July. Where did summer disappear from Ufa? Has something like this ever been seen before?

What will summer be like in Ufa in 2018? This is a rather complicated and difficult question, since to give as much as possible in advance accurate forecast it is absolutely impossible, but on the basis of the available information, it is quite possible to have an idea of ​​\u200b\u200bwhat the summer will be like. Probably, it is not a secret for anyone that the winter this year in Ufa turned out to be quite protracted, that is, long and incessant snowfall, the cold spring exhausted many, so the question of whether the upcoming summer will be warm is one of the most relevant.

Weather and its features.

It should be noted right away that it is best to start giving a forecast for all three summer months from May, since it is this period of time that sets the tone for the whole summer. So, according to the forecast of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia, the weather this month will be at the normal level. If we take, for example, the average temperature in daytime, then it is +13 +14 degrees of heat. If we talk about the upcoming air temperatures for all the summer months, then the following figures have already been set for all 70%.

1. 1. June - the average monthly temperature will be the same as last year, serious and visible changes should not be expected. In other words, this figure will be +17 +18 degrees, in some places even higher.
2. 2.July. This month is predicted to be quite hot even compared to last year. So most likely the temperature will exceed +20 degrees Celsius.
3. 3.August. This month also expects a regime close to multi-year without any visible and serious changes. Simply put, the temperature will not be lower than +17 degrees Celsius, but higher and a few degrees is quite possible and even likely.

As seen from temperature regime for all summer months.

July will be the hottest, and its indicators will differ from those to which we are already fairly accustomed.

But in June and August, everything will remain at the same and unchanged level.

If we consider the weather in terms of precipitation, which you agree can and can to a large extent tell Negative influence for the whole climate, and in some cases even improve it, refresh it, then the following points can be noted.

• Firstly, the lack of precipitation, or rather, rain will be observed in the month of July, when real heat, stuffiness and summer heat will set in the air. In other words, this month will be the driest among all the others.
• Secondly, in June and August, the amount of precipitation will be normal - no more, no less. Although for some, even this amount will not save the situation.

From everything it is very easy to draw a rather simple and banal conclusion, according to which the summer in Ufa will pass as before, without any visible natural surprises. Although there is still one small exception - the month of July, because really hot and sunny weather will set in, and the thermometer will show a high temperature that is completely uncharacteristic for this region.

Calendar of folk signs.

If you study and independently make your own forecast for the upcoming summer, then it would be most correct to focus on the following signs that have already been tested by time and years. What are these omens?

1. 1. Butterflies and insects sit on adonis flowers - it will rain.
2. 2. The barking of a dog portends an imminent change in the weather, that is, if it was warm, it will become cold, and vice versa.
3. 3. If in the summer it is stuffy in the morning, then it will rain in the evening.
4. 4. If the buds of the field bindweed have blossomed, this is for rain.
5. 5. If the spruce lowered its branches, compresses the scales of the cone, then in a day it may begin heavy rain, downpour.
6. 6. If a light cloud is visible in the sky before sunrise, then the day will be warm.
7. 7. If the month is clearly visible in the sky, then a long drought will come.
8. 8. Hot July means cold December.
9. 9. Leeches float to the surface, then rain should be expected.
10. 10. The snow is melting on the north side of the anthill, the summer will be long and warm. If on the south side, then vice versa, short and cold.
11. 11. Early spring - there will be many bad days in summer.
12. 12. If the snow melts quickly, and the water runs plentifully, then this is a wet summer.
13. 13. Spring is very warm - cold summer.
14. 14. In the cold spring - in the summer there will be hail more than once.
15. 15. Birds build nests on the sunny side - wait for a cold summer.
16. 16. A lot of cobwebs fly - the summer will be dry.

If you know at least a couple of such signs, then you can very easily navigate the question of what years it will be, which is very convenient and simple.

But which of the forecasts will turn out to be true, the summer will show, which is not long to wait.

The inhabitants of Bashkiria are already quite tired of the cold weather. Social networks are full of photos of knitted swimsuits and a wide variety of jokes: “Those who wanted to lose weight by summer - eat calmly, there will be no summer”; "In the yard - July"; “Summer, you are such an autumn”; "Great summer, only the tan through the jacket does not fit." With these funny phrases and pictures, people express their negative attitude to the existing weather conditions. And really - why rejoice if it rains, winds and knee-deep puddles outside the window all day long?

When will the real hot summer come? Why are May and June so cool and rainy? Is it true that summer in Bashkiria will gradually shift in time: June will become spring, and September will have more chances to be considered summer month? Meteorologists of Bashkortostan comment.

Citizens are accustomed to warm May, meanwhile, let's see the statistics, - offers a representative of the Hydrometeorological Center of the Bashkir Department for Hydrometeorology and Monitoring environment Gulnaz Zagitova. - Over the past 35 years, this is the sixth cold May. In 2002, the air temperature in May was 3.2 degrees below the norm. In 2000 - 4 degrees below normal with the installation of snow cover. 1990 - cold May again (three degrees below normal). May 1986 was 2.2 degrees cooler than usual, and finally May 1981 was 1.6 degrees cooler. That is, such phenomena occur on the territory of the republic. Cold May is observed about once every six years.

By the way, the victorious May 1945 was the coldest on the territory of Bashkiria - wet and 4.5 degrees below normal.

According to Gulnaz Zagitova, for some reason, May is warm, warm april people tend to take it as the norm. And cool weather in late spring is considered a real collapse. But in fact, for the Bashkir spring, the return of cold weather, precipitation in the form of snow is quite typical. There is nothing out of the ordinary here.

Now let's talk about June. To analyze the weather, a 30-year series of observations is usually taken, this is a large scientific work. In June of this year, according to the results of the first decade, the air temperature was below the norm by 4-6 degrees, the specialist states. - In the coming days, significant changes in the nature of the weather is not expected, the temperature background will be reduced. Is this an anomaly? Citizens think so. People are not used to this, and, one might say, a little "spoiled" warm weather previous years. At the same time, it is worth remembering that we live in the Urals, where cold waves and heat waves are the most common occurrence. Again, let's remember the summer of 1994, when a cyclone "stationary" over the Urals, and July was abnormally cold. And in June 2014, for example, the average temperature was 3.4 degrees below normal.

Does this mean that summer in Bashkiria will shift? Perhaps now June should be considered spring, and summer will begin only in July? While September will have a better chance of being considered a summer month? The interlocutor of Electrogazeta refutes this hypothesis.

There is at least one pattern - transition periods(spring, autumn) are becoming longer than in the 50-60s, - explains Gulnaz Zagitova. - However, there is no need to talk about any "shift" of the seasons. Bye scientific evidence that summer is shifting in time, meteorologists do not.

On the other hand, this year really turned out to be unusual in terms of weather.

The cold season has been very long this year. Snow fell already in the second decade of October (at the same time in the eastern and mountainous areas snow cover has already been recorded in the republic). The snowmelt started late. Thus, the snow lay for seven months this year. And purely from a psychological point of view, people are already tired of the cold.

What forecasts does the Hydrometeorological Center give for the coming July?

According to the probabilistic forecast of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia, July should be hotter than usual, the temperature will exceed the long-term averages. The accuracy of this forecast is 70 percent, says Gulnaz Zagitova. - Although it is quite difficult to make long-term forecasts using existing methods. Can only predict average monthly temperature without detail. That is why forecasts for the growing season are updated every month - so on June 30 a new, updated forecast for July will be released.

Forecasters assume that this month will be cool and wet.

02.07.2017 Julia LEZHEN

After abnormal snowy winter and extreme cold spring rainy summer has come in Bashkiria. The weather in the republic, as well as throughout Central Russia, continues to be in a fever: showers, powerful winds and even tornadoes are becoming commonplace. The head of the Bashkir department for hydrometeorology and environmental monitoring, Vilora Gorokholskaya, told what kind of weather awaits residents of the region in the near future.

We conducted an analysis, and over the past 35 years we have counted eight such cold Junes, including the current one, - said the chief meteorologist of the Republic of Belarus on the air of the All-Russian State Television and Radio Broadcasting Company "Bashkortostan". - True, this June overtook all the previous cold first months of summer in terms of precipitation.

According to Ms. Gorokholskaya, in the northwestern and western regions Three monthly norms of precipitation have already fallen in the republic, and even more in some areas. In Ufa, the amount of precipitation was two to two and a half of the norm, and even in the usually dry Akyar and Zilar, the monthly rainfall was reached.

This summer, June was on average two degrees colder than usual, the expert notes. - Cyclones from the north-west began to come to our territory more and more often - they just bring rainy weather with them.

The meteorologist does not agree with the conspiracy theories that are discussed on the network, which, they say, the Chinese satellite or tests in the United States of new installations that can cause weather anomalies can be the cause of negative changes in the atmosphere.

Another very popular version is relatively global climate change caused by human activity, adds Vilora Zinnurovna. - You can treat all these theories in different ways, but we are really seeing an increase in the number of dangerous weather phenomena. However, in recent decades technology has allowed us to make significant advances in weather observation. Perhaps we just got the opportunity to record such phenomena more often.

The head of the regional department of Bashhydromet does not deny that the tornadoes, which were observed several times this year in the republic, are not at all typical for our strip.

In Bashkiria, tornadoes were recorded only in 1997, in 2008 and 2012, she said. - In general, such hurricanes appear more often in tropical latitudes and in those places where there is a large water area and there is an abundance of water vapor.

Rainy weather harmed the work of farmers. Due to waterlogging of the soil, damping and death of crops is observed, care for spring crops is almost impossible due to constant rains.

What can we say about large farms, even if ordinary summer residents have rotting potatoes, and the flowering of trees has slowed down throughout the region, - adds Ms. Gorokholskaya. - That year, summer came ahead of schedule, and we already tried strawberries in the first half of June. And now everything natural processes"behind".

Given the constant movement of cyclones, it is difficult for weather forecasters to make long-term forecasts, but you should definitely not expect a hot sun in early July.

The first ten days of July will be unstable, with rain, - says the chief meteorologist of Bashkiria. - Already at the weekend, a new cyclone hovered over the republic with precipitation of varying intensity and thunderstorms. And until about July 8, the air temperature will fluctuate around 22-27 degrees.

The second decade of July is expected to be warm and dry, and the third, most likely, will again be accompanied by rain.

The readings of river levels speak eloquently about the vagaries of the weather, - adds Vilora Zinnurovna. - In the republic, the water rose above last year's figures by 10-60 centimeters. And even on individual days with showers, the water rose and fell to 40 centimeters, and this is a considerable range.

For example, on June 25, the downpour stood like a wall in Bakaly and Verkhneyarkeevo - then from monthly rate in 60 mm of precipitation, 44 mm fell in one night alone. It remains only to sympathize with the villagers, who will probably not reap a bountiful harvest in the fall.

No wonder our region is in the zone of risky farming, - says the forecaster. - In general, according to my personal observations, in my school years it was a great joy if in the summer there was really sunny hot weather for at least two weeks. During this period, everyone was in a hurry to swim and sunbathe.

It is clear that an absolutely “normal” summer in Bashkiria is extremely rare. So last August was abnormally hot, and the past June was too rainy and cool. Therefore, the meteorologist speaks cautiously about the forecast for August.

If the beginning of August is hot and the end is cold, then on average we will get the norm, - explains Vilora Gorokholskaya. - And the data so far indicate the weather is "within the normal range", so we can make a more accurate forecast for August later.

To determine the advance state of the weather for a certain period, you should definitely contact the experts in this matter - weather forecasters. Only they are able to find out the main features of a particular region at a certain time of the year. For example, you can tell the weather forecast in Ufa for the summer of the coming year in advance.

Basic information

Summer in Ufa 2018, what will it be - the main issue under consideration this time. To determine its main points, it is worth mentioning the main features of the right time of year in a certain territory of the Russian Federation. According to preliminary data from the hydrometeorological center, the weather in Ufa will be slightly colder than its usual norm. True, this situation will not be observed for all 3 months, which is already pleasing.

The local climate is considered continental and rather humid, so that any increase or decrease in temperature here is felt especially sharply.

To find out exactly how summer will turn out in the capital of the Republic of Bashkortostan in 2018, a detailed monthly forecast will help.

June weather

The actual beginning of summer will pass without typical changes. Cool may weather will continue in the first ten days of the month, but by the end of the designated period, the situation will level off at the usual mood for the region.

1. average temperature air will stay at + 17 ... + 19 degrees. Not too hot summer, but for the locals it should be so. In some places, the thermometer will rise much higher. At night, these readings look a little cooler - from +13 to +15 degrees.
2. The amount of precipitation should not exceed the June norm, and therefore there should not be any sharp temperature changes in Ufa.
3. Strong heat throughout the month in the region is not expected, and therefore talk about the opening beach season seems to be early.

It turns out that June 2018 will not be remembered for anything outstanding. For Ufa, the month will pass in its typical direction, without any unexpected deviations.

July weather

Possibly in the middle of summer locals will be able to plunge into the long-awaited sultry languor? After all, when, if not now, enjoy a well-deserved rest under the gentle sunbeams.

1. Against the background of last year, the described time period will turn out to be really hotter, which cannot but rejoice. The average daily air temperature will reach +20…+23 degrees. At night, the situation will also be very pleasant for a good pastime - from +16 to +18 degrees.
2. At this time, the least amount of precipitation is expected in Ufa, which means that the weather is preparing a great time to plan the desired vacation.
3. A slight cooling is expected at the end of the month, but it will not spoil the overall impression of the summer.

It turns out that the second stage of the most pleasant time of the year will indeed be the most suitable to plan something interesting for it. It is worth trying and spending this period with benefit, because autumn is coming soon.

August weather

In the next month of summer, the situation will again enter the already well-known, “trodden track”. The weather during all 3 decades will fully correspond to its long-term forecast.

1. During the month, the amount of precipitation will reach the required norm, and therefore there should not be noticeable stuffiness.
2. The average air temperature in the daytime will not exceed +22 degrees, while at night the thermometer will sometimes drop to +12.
3. Strengthens by the end of the month West wind and already in the last few days of August the weather will be far from summer. This climatic feature characteristic of the marked region, and therefore there is nothing extraordinary in such a situation - everything goes on as usual.

I would like to note that there will be no desired shifts towards warming in August on the territory of Ufa, and therefore a painfully familiar month awaits everyone. You should not hope that at this time you will be able to sunbathe or enjoy the fine summer days. True, you can always go south, where the scorching heat should be felt much stronger.

Folk omens

Despite such an advance forecast from the Russian hydrometeorological center, our ancestors always based their own information about any season solely on observation of nature. To learn how to conduct such "research" on your own, it is enough to remember a few of the most well-known signs relating to summer.

1. Dog barking speaks of an imminent change in the weather: if it was cold, it will become warm, and vice versa.
2. Insects in a swarm sit on the flowers of the adonis, soon there will be bad weather.
3. If in the summer there is unbearable closeness in the evening, it will definitely rain in the morning.
4. If the month in the sky shines brightly and is clearly visible, as if in the palm of your hand, a long drought is expected.
5. If the buds of the field bindweed bloom at once, it will soon rain.
6. The spruce lowered its branches and the scales of the cones shrunk more tightly, the next day it could rain heavily.
7. If on the eve of sunrise a bright cloud appears in the sky, the day promises to be serene and warm.
8. The hotter June is, the colder December will be.
9. The earlier spring comes, the more gloomy days are expected in the coming summer.
10. Leeches float to the surface of the reservoir - there will be a storm.
11. The snow begins to melt from the north side of the anthill, the summer will be long and hot, and if from the south, expect cold weather and frequent rains.
12. If the snow melts very quickly in spring, summer will be just as fleeting.
13. The warmer the spring, the colder the summer.
14. Sharp colds in late April or May indicate a possible hail during the heat wave.
15. If a lot of cobwebs fly in the air in spring, the summer promises to be warm and long.
16. If the birds build their nests on the south side, the hot season will actually be quite cool.

If you remember at least a few of these signs, in the future it will help to be of any kind of forecasts to determine the situation that is happening with the weather in any territory of Russia next summer. It remains only to determine which of the forecasts will turn out to be the most correct in practice, and for this you will have to survive a cold autumn, a frosty winter and a wet spring. Do you think we can?

Leaden clouds over the republic do not want to dissipate in any way, even the most notorious haters of the heat did not count on such an unsightly summer. When will the rainy season end? We call Bashhydromet, press secretary Elena Orlova.

- Elena Nikolaevna, who stole the summer?

Apparently, the Almighty. Rainy weather is determined by the region reduced pressure, and also influence atmospheric front that pass through our territory. This year, unconventional conditions arose due to the fact that the previous few weeks there was an abnormal heat over the entire Western Europe. Usually cyclones come to us from the south or from the southwest and bring heat. But in July, she got stuck in Europe, and cyclones began to make their way to us from the northeast, pumping in moisture and cool air. Therefore, the rains became more frequent, and in some places there were showers with thunderstorms, squally winds (20-25 m / s) and even hail. The average temperature is kept at around 20-25 degrees with a decrease on some days. The coldest days of summer were July 7-8, when the thermometer dropped to only 1-7 degrees at night. For the top of the summer, this is, of course, a kind of anti-record. In general, the breath of the Arctic affected the beginning of the summit.

- Has such a gloom spread to the territory of the whole of Bashkiria?

No way, our republic is too big. In the south, for example, in Akyar (Khaibullinsky district) last days the temperature does not fall below 30 degrees. There, one can only dream of rain. The highest fifth class of fire hazard has been established - everything can flare up without a match.

- And in Ufa - everything pours ... And after all, what a year! rainy summer becomes calling card Ufa?

Yes, the capital of the republic last years differs not very summer weather. But this is rather an exception to the rule. We should have the most in July heat in a year. So far, it has not been possible to reach the norm, but let's not forget that last year it snowed in Uchaly. This summer, at least, there were no such unpleasant surprises.

- Have constant rains already "poured" some kind of record or is everything still within the norms of the climatic framework?

We have not yet summed up the results of the month, but in general, in July the temperature is below the norm by 2-4 degrees, while in June it was 3-5 degrees higher. Precipitation for the last decade has fallen above the norm. Sunbathing and really will not work, but for Agriculture this is a definite plus. Republic awaits good harvest– perhaps even more than average!

- Main question: will summer come back this year and will we finally be able to swim?

If only in the rain ... Apparently, until the end of July, the weather will not change. It will be just as capricious and unstable, with rain. The thermometer during the day will show about 19-24 degrees.

- Maybe we'll be lucky in August?

According to the forecasts of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia, August is indeed expected to be warmer than usual, so summer will return to us. Ilyin's day dot in bathing season should not be!