An anomalous phenomenon or a whim of nature: climatologists have named the causes of a cold summer. The plans were washed away by the rain Is it true that the summer will be cold

The summer of 2017 did not bring any joy to the citizens of Russia. Throughout June, there are heavy rains, showers and even hurricanes. The abnormally cold summer of 2017 spoils all plans. Indeed, in such weather it is difficult even to get home, not to go to the beach. Why is June so cold? Will the heavy rains stop? What to expect from July and August? What will the weather be like in the next months of summer?

Causes of abnormal summer 2017

Meteorologists believe that the cold summer came due to several reasons. First reason- abnormal heating of the Earth. The fact is that the mesosphere and other layers of the air shell are very hot. Because of this, the temperature on Earth is slowly decreasing. Scientists predict the consequences of such weather - not global warming, but global cooling, which could lead to an ice age.

The second reason- Launch of a Chinese satellite called Mo Tzu. It is the first satellite designed for quantum transmission of information on Earth. During the mission, the mechanism of quantum entanglement is being investigated, and test quantum teleportation is also being carried out. The first experiments were successful, but then something went wrong.

When the satellite begins to transmit information, negative air ions increase in the atmosphere, which contribute to the deterioration of the weather. Hurricanes and downpours form on Earth. In addition, monopoles appeared in the stratosphere. IN last time they were seen in 1816, which was nicknamed the year without a summer. Then the main reason for the cold summer was the eruption of the Tambora volcano.

No matter how absurd this reason may be, world experts believe that the equipment on the satellite and the ongoing quantum operations can really affect weather planets. But they also report that soon everything should return to normal, and the long-awaited summer will come.

Third reason- "North Atlantic bloc". According to meteorologists, the "North Atlantic block" is an anticyclone. A powerful ridge formed at the middle level of the troposphere high pressure, which does not allow air masses to pass from west to east. Now this block is located in the UK, so only Arctic air enters Russia.

Each of these reasons can affect the planet as a whole in its own way, but so far the result is the same - an abnormally cold summer is observed. One can only hope that July and August 2017 will bring the citizens of Russia a little more warmth than June.

Forecasts for July and August 2017

According to meteorologists, there will be no abnormal heat in the summer of 2017. But already in July, the thermometer scale will begin to rise. A long coolness will be replaced by a real summer. The air temperature is expected to reach +26 - 29 degrees. After the holiday of Ivan Kupala, the temperature will rise by a few more degrees.

According to the popular forecast, in July, the Russians will again expect rain. Indeed, in the middle of the month the rains will return for several days. But the end of the month will please with the absence abnormal weather. It will be warm, the temperature will rise to 32 degrees.

According to the people's forecast, the weather in August will constantly fluctuate. The first week of the month will start with quite hot weather. This week will be the peak of the heat wave of the anomalous summer of 2017 in Moscow. Residents of Russia are advised to visit the beaches and sunbathe a little. Meteorologists pay attention to the fact that forest fires are possible at this time.

After a week of heat, we will again have to go through several rainy days. From 25 degrees Celsius the temperature will drop to 17 degrees. A little more heat should be expected in the second half of the month. August will end heavy rain and cold wind.

The summer of 2017 will bring not only heavy rains, but also beautiful summer warmth. Every resident of Russia will be able to enjoy the hot weather. Do not get upset ahead of time, even an abnormally cold summer will end one day.

In the next 10 years, the climate is likely to be undulating, with frequent shifts higher and more low temperatures. About it " Russian newspaper" said the head of the Hydrometeorological Center Roman Vilfand, answering the question: "What is happening with the weather in Central Russia, and will we have summer this year?"

"IN climatic characteristics now volatility prevails, explains Vilfand. - Climatologists attribute this to global warming. First of all, get warm high latitudes and the temperature difference between the equator and the poles decreases. It seems that if there is global warming, then the air temperature everywhere should rise. But in fact, this leads to other processes - namely, to undulating changes.

As the chief weather forecaster of the country explains, if for our latitudes the west-east transfer was always familiar air masses, now such air circulation has been established that cold air is blowing towards us more often arctic winds. And this situation, unfortunately, may be repeated over the next 10 years.

"Normal average temperatures will be less, but the alternation of rainy and dry periods will increase," explains Vilfand. It is also possible that anomalous warm winters and frosts in summer.

As for the nearest summer prospects for residents of Central Russia, then, according to the head of the Hydrometeorological Center, July still promises to please Muscovites and residents of the central regions warm weather, which will be several degrees higher than the norm. And even a full-fledged swimming season will be able to open. True, while the water temperature in Moscow and Moscow region reservoirs does not exceed 14 degrees. Such water will be enjoyed only by very hardened people.

The next week, as Lyudmila Parshina, head of the laboratory of the Hydrometeorological Center, told RG, moderately warm weather is expected in the capital region. Daytime temperatures will fluctuate within 22-24 degrees, night -10-12 degrees. Rains are possible.

As for other Russian regions, the temperature background is different everywhere - up to 40-degree heat, as in Novosibirsk, Tomsk, Kemerovo regions and in the Altai Territory, to night frosts, as in the Murmansk region.

The alternation of rains and droughts will become more frequent. Abnormally warm winters and frosts in summer possible

In the south of Russia, in the Stavropol Territory and in most republics North Caucasus, in Chechnya, Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkaria wind increase up to 20 meters per second, daily temperatures will not exceed 26 degrees. Eastern Ciscaucasia will be in warmer air - there will be up to 28 degrees during the day. On the Black Sea coast- 20-25 degrees. At the beginning of the week the weather will improve. It will warm up to 28 degrees on the Black Sea coast, up to 30 degrees in the Sochi region. The Black Sea warmed up to 22-23 degrees.

Spring and the long-awaited summer brought almost no pleasure to the Russians. Vacation plans were ruined by abnormal weather conditions. Incessant downpours, hurricanes, record lows and vice versa heat brought confusion to the inhabitants of almost all regions of Russia. What happened to the climate? What will be the summer of 2018 - weather forecasts

On May 29, 2017, a severe storm occurred in Moscow and the Moscow region. The wind speed reached 28 m/s in some places. According to statistics, this is the strongest storm since 1904. As a result of the violence of the elements, 18 people died and 170 were injured. How did events develop?

The weather was determined by a moving cyclone coming from the Gulf of Finland. Moscow was in the warm part. The air temperature reached 25 °C.

Along with the wind came thunder, downpour and hail. Dropped out in a short amount of time most of monthly rate precipitation (31 mm). Fixed hailstones measuring 6mm.

In some areas the wind was blowing at a speed of 20 m/s. Several automatically operating weather stations located in the central part of Moscow recorded a speed of 30 m/s.

In the evening the elements calmed down.

Consequences of the Moscow hurricane 2017

1. Electricity was out in 300 settlements(more than 16,000 buildings, 1,500 dachas).
2. Broken 27,000 trees. Some grew in protected natural parks.
3. The roofs of more than 200 multi-storey buildings were damaged.
4. 2,000 vehicles damaged.
5. A strong wind partially or completely destroyed historical monuments: monastery tombstones, the roof of the Senate Palace, the Church of the Nativity of the Virgin.
6. Fallen trees made it difficult to move along the railroad tracks.

According to the city authorities, a total damage of 25,000,000 rubles was caused.

No signs of trouble. The element played out in a matter of moments. What was happening was like a big wind tunnel. The wind constrained by high-rise buildings high speed rushed along long streets, avenues and highways, demolishing everything that came across on the way.

Reasons for cold weather in 2017

The weather began to deteriorate in early May. The first days were marked by snowfalls, moreover, they were observed throughout Russia.

1. The Perm Territory was the first to experience the vagaries of nature. On May 7, 100 mm of snow fell in Kungur, Bershet, Kukushtan, Yanychi. Snowfalls took place in the Sverdlovsk region.
2. On May 8, snow was seen in Surgut and KhAO. The most difficult was the situation in Tomsk. In the morning, a warning was received about a possible wind increase to 23m/s. Trees were knocked down, wires were cut, a forest fire started. The wind and rain did not stop even on May 9th. On the 11th, a storm warning was issued.
3. On May 8, snow fell in Murmansk.
4. 3 days (May 8-10) rain with snow came to the capital and the region. In some places, the snow cover reached 20 cm. During this time, 80% of the monthly precipitation fell.
5. On May 9, instead of the festive fireworks of the inhabitants of Kaliningrad and Kaliningrad region snow was expected.
6. Residents had to deal with bad weather Irkutsk region. In the morning the sun shone brightly, then the wind appeared, it began to rain. By evening, the rain became stronger, more snow.
7. On May 10, snowdrifts were recorded in St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region.

Since the beginning of summer, the situation has not changed much. warm days were replaced by rain, wind and not summer coolness. The temperature rarely rose above 17 °C.

In the following months, there were no hurricanes or snowfalls, but the weather did not please Muscovites with warmth. In July, two cyclones passed, bringing rain and wind. Short-term warming was replaced by another drop in temperature (15-17 °C). And so on throughout the summer.

According to weather forecasters, capricious weather should not be surprised. Similarity of snow was seen in early June 2016. Cooling was recorded in 2001/2008. True, the temperature is fixed a couple of degrees higher.

At the same time, the Urals and Siberia suffered from abnormal heat. The thermometers sometimes showed 30-31 °C. This provoked an increase in the level of fire danger. For example, in the Krasnoyarsk Territory, he reached the maximum fifth grade.

According to scientists, in such weather, the weakest lightning strike could provoke large-scale fires.

In many areas, the heat was abruptly replaced by thunderstorms, downpours, and heavy winds.

How to explain what happened?

Causes of abnormal weather changes

Meteorologists identify several reasons for a sharp change in climatic conditions.

1. Strong heating of the planet. It is known that air envelope The earth has several layers. The mesosphere and a few others got too hot. The result is a decrease in air temperature. According to many meteorologists, we should not talk about global warming, but about global cooling.
2. Satellite launch. A Chinese satellite called "Mao Tzu" flew into space. Why did it arouse the strongest interest? This is the first device to use new technology quantum data transfer. The first tests passed with flying colors. Later it was noticed that during the operation of the satellite in earth's atmosphere the level of air ions (gas particles) rises. They influence the weather, leading to the appearance of rains and hurricanes. Monopoles have also been found in the stratosphere. The last mention of them refers to 1816, which was marked by the eruption of the Tambora volcano.
3. North Atlantic bloc. So scientists call an anticyclone. A high pressure ridge appeared in the troposphere, preventing the free movement of air from west to east. Now it is observed over the territory of Great Britain, which is why cold Arctic air enters Russia.

These factors affect the weather in different ways. But the result of influence is the same - abnormal heat or cold.

Forecasts are of interest to many Russians. What to expect in the future? How will winter, spring, summer, autumn 2018 go? What weather is expected, habitual or abnormal?

According to meteorologists, the coming winter differs little from winter in the classical sense. sudden drops in temperature and severe frosts not expected. Only on Epiphany and Christmas will the thermometers drop down.

Spring 2018, unlike winter, is full of unpleasant surprises. The weather is expected to be unstable. Anticyclones/cyclones will change each other unusually quickly, which will lead to alternating clear sunny and frosty days.

Forecasts for the upcoming 2018 weather forecasters are making cautious. This is especially true in summer. According to scientists, the highest temperature will come in August. In June-July, the weather will resemble spring. Moreover, heavy rains with thunderstorms are expected.

The weather is unpredictable. As you can see from recent events, it can change almost instantly. There are many reasons and they are not always rooted in natural processes, for example, overheating of the planet or the movement of cyclones / anticyclones. Often what is happening is the result of human activity (launching satellites, deforestation.). It is necessary to prepare for any turn of events. It is worth remembering that any time of the year is beautiful in its own way, regardless of snowy winter this, blooming spring, bright autumn, hot summer. According to a famous song, nature has no bad weather. The main thing is to treat her correctly.

Appeared back in 1975: Wallace Broker mentioned it in an article on climate change trends as a result of anthropogenic factors. These trends are constantly monitored by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. And the Kyoto Protocol, signed at the UN conference in 1997, is designed to minimize greenhouse gas emissions by participating countries. Therefore, on the one hand, climate change on Earth is under international control.

On the other hand, global climatic processes raise questions among ordinary inhabitants of the planet, and in particular, the Moscow region. Since the world is experiencing global warming - then why is the beginning of summer in the capital region so cold?

However, experts say that the climate is not an area where it is worth drawing superficial conclusions, despite obvious changes.

Yury Varakin, head of the situational center of Roshydromet, emphasizes that in order to confirm or deny that certain changes are taking place in the climate, it is necessary to monitor the situation for years, and the climate “step” is thirty years. Based on observational data for thirty years, statistical indicators are derived: averages for a day or for a certain date, average daily temperature or Maximum temperature, which has been observed for thirty years, etc.

Moscow and Moscow region - in the comfort zone

Moscow and the Moscow region are prosperous regions compared to those places where fires, droughts or floods are happening right now.

“We do not have such natural disasters as in Central and South Asia. Every year, thousands of people die from floods, not because a tree fell on their heads, but because houses are blown away as a result of a tropical downpour. Now there is an abnormal heat wave in Japan: several children have died from heat stroke, hundreds of people with overheating are in hospitals,” says Yuri Varakin.

However, the coldness with which this summer began can be explained by the same global processes, which is the riot of the elements in other places on the planet.

According to research by the Hydrometeorological Center, the reason for the recurrence of very cold and hot periods, dry and rainy periods is that the temperature on the planet rises unevenly.

“In the equatorial territories, warming is less noticeable than at the poles, and as a result, the temperature difference between them is decreasing. This temperature difference between the equator and the pole is the basis for the emergence of circulation in the atmosphere, ”explains Roman Vilfand, director of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia.

According to forecasters, the processes in the atmosphere are slowing down.

"Consequence global warming- slowing down the movement of cyclones around the Earth. Previously, the cyclone flew over the European part through the Moscow region - and into Siberia. Two days passed - and the rain ended, and if it was cold, then after a couple of days it became warmer. Now, due to the fact that the climate has warmed a little, everything in the atmosphere is moving slowly. And if the cyclone has risen, it will not budge for a month, ”explains forecaster and meteorologist Andrei Skvortsov.

Human factor

However, all climatic anomalies and natural disasters, which in Lately occur on the territory of Russia, in addition to global ones, there are quite local reasons.

Pollution of rivers, silting of reservoirs, huge garbage dumps - all this contributes to the fact that the consequences of the rampant elements were more severe. Experts believe that sometimes the precipitation itself is not so terrible as their consequences due to purely economic problems and the human factor.

“For 40-50 years they have not been cleaned with dredgers mountain rivers, the Otkaznenskoye reservoir in the Stavropol Territory silted up. If in Krymsk there were not 17 solid dumps clogged with karch, roots and other garbage, so many people would not have died in 2012. The same is now: there was a squall in the capital region, people died - but many were killed by trees that certain organizations should have cut down beforehand! Therefore, there is no need to blame everything on nature,” says Yuri Varakin.

He adds that in the conditions of a metropolis, where heating mains and communications pass under the asphalt, trees cannot live more than 60-70 years, they are destroyed root system and the tree withers.

The myth of long-range forecasts

Forecasters say that forecasts should always be made with great care: the longer the forecast period, the less reliable it is. Seven to ten days is the maximum period, and on its last dates the probability of an error increases significantly.

“For three days, we can give a 95% justified forecast. We can say for sure that tonight in Moscow, for example, there will be a thunderstorm, because the locators record not just rain, but with a downpour and thunder. And, let's say, on Saturday the probability of precipitation is less. But only shamans or swindlers can predict what will happen on July 10 or 15,” Yuri Varakin notes.

Despite this, the Hydrometeorological Center has a special department of long-range weather forecasts that compiles data for the season, but its method of work is based on statistical modeling for the analogous year.

“Suppose we need to develop a forecast for two months: we take the results of observations at a given point six months ago and, according to certain criteria, look for what is called an “analogue year”. That is, they are looking for a year in which, like ours now, February was very cold, and March and April were above the temperature climatic norm. Then they look at what, for example, August was that year. And on the basis of this, they predict what the current August will be like. But this does not take into account what was August or March-April on another continent or in southern hemisphere. It is possible that these things affect the climate in our country. Therefore, such models are scientific, but they are not enough for us yet, ”says Alexander Sinenkov, weather forecaster on duty at the Phobos weather center.

Be that as it may, according to Andrei Skvortsov, in the near future, residents of the Moscow region can still hope for good weather.

“In the next week, we will have about the same thing as now, up to plus 18-22 degrees, then rain, then the sun. The cyclone is standing - it will turn its cold side, then it will turn warm. But towards the end next week this structure can collapse - and heat will come to us, ”the expert notes.

It's all about the "lost" air currents

They say light down jackets this season are the most hot commodity in the capital's boutiques... Muscovites, it seems, have already come to terms with the cold summer of 2017, or rather, following the well-known advice, they simply changed their attitude towards it. Someone seriously warms up, and someone, like Vasily Terkin, saves himself with jokes, posting photos of the most relevant woolen swimsuits this season on social networks. Well, the sky, completely raging, gave out a new surprise on Friday - either snow or hail. And this is right after the announcement by the mayor of the opening bathing season in Moscow! What happened to nature? Will we get any warm weather this year? And how to protect your body from weather changes? We asked these questions to the forecasters of the Hydrometeorological Center of the Russian Federation, the Phobos weather center and doctors.

Arctic cold decided in again test Muscovites for strength. We did not have time to recover from terrible hurricane who claimed the lives of 16 people, as on Friday he again brought us with northern seas strong wind, lead clouds and a good portion ... of snow, but rather pre-hail crumbs, as meteorologists call it.

The winds are breaking deep into our country, and there is no need to expect much warming until Wednesday next week, - Evgeny Tishkovets, a leading specialist of the Phobos weather center, comments on the situation. - All the fault - diving cyclones that come from the north. Against the background of unconditional global warming, there are failures of zonal (from west to east) air mass transfers. Instead, we are increasingly confronted with processes that move perpendicularly - from north to south or from south to north. That's why it turns out confusion - in the south of Siberia +30, and in Moscow on the night of June 3, 0 ... +5 degrees was expected and precipitation in the form of sleet in the north and east of the region.

It seems that it is time for climatologists to explain themselves to us. However, they maintain Olympian calm, only repeating that a generalization is not made after one case, and therefore they cannot yet say about any permanent changes in nature.

What we are seeing now is happening against the backdrop of global warming, - says Tatyana Berezhnaya, head of the world weather department of the Hydrometeorological Center of the Russian Federation. - Only climatologists have not yet come to a common opinion: is this a natural trend, or a consequence anthropogenic influence. For the most part, they still tend to believe that warming is a natural climatic phenomenon that periodically repeats itself on Earth. Only in different regions this is reflected in its own way: somewhere people are languishing from the heat, and somewhere, like ours, they wear coats in the summer. Here last example temperature shifters: over the weekend it rained and was cold in the eastern Mediterranean, and in the south of Sweden it was warmer than in Greece, +27 (!) Celsius. But it is not yet possible to say that now this trend will continue for all subsequent years. Although there is evidence that the Adriatic was once frozen and there was a toboggan run along Adriatic Sea to Venice.

store historical chronicles information about the fact of snowfall in Moscow in 1602 already in July ...

Well, what will happen to the summer season-2017? The fracture, as it turned out, is planned only on Sunday, when air currents will finally turn 90 degrees and start moving from west to east again. Cold will give way to heat, and the thermometer will begin to grow smoothly: if +18 is expected on Monday, then from Wednesday the temperature will finally reach the June norm of +25 degrees, and from next weekend it will really be possible to open the long-awaited swimming season.