The Earth's climate is changing. What we are going to do? Abnormal weather in the world: what nature is trying to shout to us Winters will not get warmer
It would not be an exaggeration to say that in the last two decades, the humanity of our planet has forgotten about a quiet life. And it's not just about politics or other social phenomena. For a long time now, we cannot say with certainty that winter will come in time, and there will be snow, that in April there will be spring weather and warm in summer. The planet keeps humanity under stress. The climate of our planet, which has been stable for centuries, is rapidly changing.
We are so arranged that we get used to almost everything, so the once disturbing reports of weather anomalies are today taken for granted by many. And it would be good if these changes did not pass by our eyes. Indeed, often we begin to notice them only when it is already impossible to change anything.
Meanwhile, the changes of the planet seem to be only gaining momentum, and we simply cannot stand aside.
Changes in habitual seasonal temperatures in almost all parts of the planet, melting glaciers, temperature changes ocean waters and changes in current parameters, increased seismic and volcanic activity, changes in the characteristic intensity and places of observation of various natural phenomena- these are the "surprises" that Nature presents to us in last years.
Maybe all these trials were given to mankind in order to experience stress, to get out of lethargic spiritual sleep? Only by soberly assessing what is happening and how, we will be able to act correctly and continue to live on the planet. Although it will be new life, and a changed planet...
Certainly scientists different countries, engaged in the study of climate and related problems, today have a number of versions about the causes of what is happening on the planet.
Paraphrasing the well-known wisdom, we can say: who is informed is armed. But in order not to make hasty conclusions, so characteristic of a simple layman, it is necessary to analyze the data of long-term meteorological observations.
Here is the opinion of the expert of the National Institute of Climatology and Volcanology of Italy, Antonio Navarra: “Records in themselves are indicators of limited significance and cannot be perceived as elements indicating some specific changes. It is important to understand whether they are a manifestation of important climate change, and the entire world scientific community is studying just such aspects ... " Article from the newspaper "La Repubblica", 12/18/2006.
The climate on the planet is constantly changing, and there are large and small cycles of these changes. Looking at some change separately from the big picture, we will not see the overall trend. This can be seen in a small example: “January 2005 was only 1.5 degrees colder than normal. Yes, there were intense but short intervals when the temperature dropped very low. But most days were a few degrees warmer than normal. Weather fluctuations have a completely different scale compared to climate fluctuations. In the first case, the interval is 30 days, in the second - 30 years. The trend towards climate warming is objective, and weather surges do not affect it.” Roman Vilfand, Director of the Hydrometeorological Center. Russia.
What does the climate depend on? Climate change can be influenced by the unstable position of the planet relative to the Sun, cosmic energies, and processes on the Sun itself. Also, we must not forget that our planet is a heterogeneous physical body, consisting of several layers of matter: from solid to gaseous. The motion of each of the layers, which have their own density, occurs with different parameters, and in general, rather complex physical and mathematical models are required to describe the motion of the planet.
The position of the earth's axis relative to the plane of its rotation around the Sun is not constant. The earth's axis is subject not only to precession, in which for 26 thousand years it cyclically describes the imaginary surface of the cone, but also to nutation - a small periodic oscillation (see figure).
A change in the angle of inclination of the axis is one of the most important factors affecting the climate, and, in fact, all life on the planet. Also, with a period of about 100 thousand years, the shape of the orbit of our planet around the Sun changes from elliptical to almost circular. “Each of these fluctuations results in a small seasonal redistribution solar heat between different latitudes, which means it affects the climate.” Methodology of science, Ivanov Igor Pierovich, "A branch of physics born from a mistake"
Ice ages have repeatedly occurred on Earth, and there have been changes in the angle of inclination of the planet's axis. This was confirmed by the bodies of mammoths found frozen without any damage with fresh grass in their stomachs and the ancient manuscripts of the priests of the Order of Solon that have come down to us, which describe a cataclysm in which “the Sun rose twice and set twice in one place.”
Many global cataclysms that took place in the distant past can be blamed on the fall of a large cosmic body such as a large asteroid onto the planet. But is it really necessary to run these processes additional external factor? And are the ends of the periods of planetary changes mentioned above so far from us?
In the article, Doctor of Technical Sciences. V. I. Ferronsky 1 considers an interesting discovery from the field of theoretical physics, called "stochastic resonance". Scientists described the essence of the phenomenon using the example of studying the melting of glaciers and information about the previously mentioned periods of changes in the position of the planet: half-cycle - a little less than usual. However, this effect is weak and will not melt the glacial ice by itself. In physics, such a disturbance is called subthreshold: its strength is less than the threshold required for the system to jump from one state to another. But when these two influences - noise 2 and a periodic subthreshold signal - work together, then resonance arises. The noise power and the signal period can be chosen in such a way that they begin to “cooperate”: the noise, as it were, helps the system to “ripen” for a jump to another steady state, and a weak applied action pushes it at the right moment, sets the pace of jumps. Periodic impact is very weak, but it plays the role of a “conductor” of global glaciations...”. Thus, small periods of change, in this case climate indicators, are superimposed on more global processes, reinforcing each other, which leads to very serious consequences.
1. Institute water problems RAS, chief researcher, doctor of technical sciences, expert in the field of paleohydrology Ferronsky Vasily Ivanovich, "Virial approach to solving the problem of the global dynamics of the Earth."
2. Here, “noise” is “... the weather on Earth, which changes from year to year, on a scale of many thousands of years, looks just like a strong, chaotic“ weather noise ”.
What picture do we have today? What can be taken as “noise” (short-term changes), and what are global processes?
Below are data on changes in average monthly daily temperatures in the Moscow region over the past few years. This data can be freely found on the Internet by anyone. The graphs show a small period (high frequency) of fluctuations in average temperatures, but the general trend of their increase is also monitored.
It is believed that Russia lies in temperate zone, and in its European territory the climate "temperate continental with short summers". The main characteristic of this type of climate is as follows: “A humid continental climate with a short summer is characteristic of a vast band of temperate latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. AT harsh winters average air temperatures can drop to -18°C. Summers are short and cool, with a frost-free period of less than 150 days. In Moscow, the average temperatures in January are -9°С, in July: +18°С.
Comparing this characteristic with the presented data, we see that it does not correspond to today. Now the climate of the Moscow region is more suitable for such a definition as "humid continental climate with long summers". This type of climate, according to previously established standards, manifests itself in the temperate latitudinal zone of North America from the eastern part of the Great Plains to Atlantic coast, and in southeastern Europe - in the lower reaches of the Danube.
Similar climatic conditions are found in northeastern China and central Japan. Here are its characteristics: “Air temperatures and duration summer season increase to the south in areas of humid continental climate. The average temperature is the most warm month: +22°С, warm summer nights. Winters are not as cold as in areas of humid continental climate with short summers. The annual temperature range is usually 28°C. The largest number precipitation is brought by summer thunderstorms. This is a small but quite clear example of the fact that, relatively speaking, the climate system on the planet has left the state of equilibrium, and now transition processes are taking place in it.
Now back to global processes. The term "global warming" was introduced by scientists quite a long time ago, when there was a generally accepted version of the greenhouse effect caused by human activity. This model or theory is now heavily criticized. “The physics of the atmosphere is much more complicated than the primitive picture we know greenhouse effect. Firstly, heat from the surface and lower layers of the atmosphere is transferred not so much by radiation as by vertical air flows - by all known convection. Moreover, the concentration of greenhouse gases does not affect this way of self-cooling of the Earth.
Secondly, we are protected from overheating by an important property of cloudiness, which slows down any tendency towards overheating of the atmosphere. The fact is that as the temperature rises, evaporation increases, the clouds become denser, and the Earth receives less solar heat, and cooling begins. The two described mechanisms of self-cooling of the Earth are much more important for climate formation than the fact of thermal radiation, which depends on the concentration of carbon dioxide. The innocence of carbon dioxide in warming is proved by the following fact: even if the entire atmosphere of the Earth consisted of one carbon dioxide, the average temperature at the surface would not be higher, but as much as 2 degrees lower than the current one! In other words, the connection of global warming with the growing concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere is highly doubtful...”. O.G. Sorokhtin, doc. Phys.-Math. sciences, prof., acad. RANS, "Nezavisimaya Gazeta", 11.08.2004
Also true is the statement that on the scale of a long history, the influence of technogenic factors is very insignificant compared to natural ones.
And here it is appropriate to start talking about another hypothesis of today's climate change on the planet: change in the angle of inclination of its axis.
Are there any grounds for believing that this moment our planet is undergoing a change in the angle of inclination of the axis of rotation? One of the indirect confirmations of this hypothesis can be precisely the widespread change of climatic zones, which can be assumed on the example of the Moscow region data.
It is also impossible not to mention the accelerating change in recent years. magnetic poles, which can have much more serious consequences than it seems at first glance. "AT recent times Strange things are happening to the Earth's magnetic pole. Since its discovery, it has slowly drifted north. But over the past 30 years, the speed of this movement has increased by 4 times!... If the movement of the North Pole continues at the same course and at the same pace as now, then by 2007 it will leave the territory of Canada, - suggests a geologist, a member of the Geological Commission Professor Larry Newitt of Canada, “After that, the pole will pass by Alaska and in about 50 years will be in Siberia.”
As in any gyroscopic system with feedback, when the axis of rotation of the Earth is shifted, forces arise that tend to return the system to a stable position. There is an assumption that the displacement of the magnetic poles is a consequence of the action of this force. “Another oddity is that the magnetic field is weakening by about 5% every century. The impact of this was felt in 1989 by residents of eastern Canada. solar winds broke through a weak magnetic shield and caused severe breakdowns in the electrical grid, leaving the province of Quebec without power for 9 hours. "Race" of the poles and weakening magnetic field connected. Perhaps these are the first signs that a “polarity reversal” is coming: the north and south magnetic poles will switch places. Before the change of poles, the magnetic field will weaken and almost disappear, and then reappear "upside down" 3 . And the change of magnetic poles can upset the delicate balance of all climatic processes and lead us no more, no less, to a global catastrophe.
3. Online newspaper "Living Planet", Aleksandrova S., "Are we expecting a change of poles?"
As mentioned above, on our planet there is also an increase in average temperatures in various climatic zones(global warming trend). And if the theory of the greenhouse effect is questioned, then it is proposed to look for the cause outside the planet.
Here Interesting Facts, expressed by Khabibullo Abdusamatov, Head of the Space Research Laboratory of the Main (Pulkovo) Astronomical Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences: “Based on the Pulkovo observatory studies, we came to the conclusion that the decisive influence on the Earth's climate change is exerted not by human activity, but by a change in the intensity of solar luminosity... integral flux of solar radiation.... Global warming also occurs on Mars, but without the greenhouse effect and without the participation of "Martians". These parallel global warmings, observed simultaneously both on Mars and on Earth, can only be a direct consequence of the influence of the same factor - a long-term change in the intensity of solar radiation ... ".
It is impossible not to take into account other components of cosmic radiation (cosmic energies) that reach the surface of our planet, the influence of which is still almost not studied.
From the point of view of scientists, one can only assume so far that many cycles of large and small changes have coincided in our days and give a “resonance”: the planet’s axis is turning, the influence of energies from the Cosmos on our planet has increased ....
We are accustomed to take all these facts calmly, usually without drawing any conclusions for ourselves personally. But the ongoing processes are fundamentally changing the very concept of life, bringing us closer to the transition point. But where to go? To a happy heavenly life on a changed planet or to the abyss of catastrophes and disasters? And can we accurately determine what will happen to us personally in the coming years, decades?
It seems that we should look for answers to all these questions, not remaining indifferent to our common human destiny, looking for explanations for the most incredible facts by finding answers and offering solutions.
FIVE MAJOR WEATHER ANOMALIES
To begin with, let's try to understand what is happening with the weather in Russia and on the entire planet. And then we will figure out who is to blame for this and what will happen next.
Vadim Zavodchenkov, Phobos Center Leading Specialist, compiled for KP a rating of weather anomalies that Russia experienced in May and early June 2017:
1. Hurricane in Moscow.
Wind gusts reached 30 meters per second, which has never happened in the history of meteorological observations. The hurricane was caused by a cold atmospheric front. “Such fronts always come with rain, thunderstorms and strong winds. And although the process is classic, the degree of its development is extraordinary, due to the large temperature contrasts, enhanced by the metropolis: the asphalt warms up one and a half times more than the ground, and the greater the temperature contrast, the higher the wind speed,” says Vadim Zavodchenkov. No weather anomaly has caused so much damage in such a short time- just a few hours.
2. Tornadoes in Tatarstan, Altai, the Urals.
Extremely atypical phenomena for our country, especially at this time of the year. For Tatarstan, this is the first case in history; in Altai, tornadoes happen once every 10 years.
3. Cold temperature anomalies
The leader in cold weather is the center and the entire European part of Russia. Last May was the coldest for several decades, the temperature fell short of the climate norm of more than 3 degrees. Even in June, we were swept away by snowfall and night frosts! For the era of global warming in which we live, all this is very unusual.
4. Arctic invasions
But not all of Russia is freezing. In southern Siberia - Barnaul, Krasnoyarsk, Abakan, Irkutsk, Novosibirsk - heat records were broken in May. But even there, extreme heat waves were replaced by equally sharp cold snaps. “Usually in May there are two Arctic air intrusions in Siberia, this year there were four in a month. Such abrupt and frequent weather changes are also non-standard phenomena. By the way, they were the causes of tornadoes: icy air from the Arctic collided with hot air, powerful cumulus clouds formed in contrast, and funnels of tornadoes twisted under them, ”explains the meteorologist.
5. Heavy rains and flooding in Stavropol and other regions of the North Caucasus.
THE ARCTIC IS HEATING - WE ARE COLD
The reason for all these anomalies in 2017 - both warm and cold, and wet, and windy - oddly enough, one. Global warming , - says Vadim Zavodchenkov.
Where is the logic? He is ready to explain:
Cold air is denser and heavier than warm air - we know this from school. On the scale of the globe cold air from the poles due to its weight under the influence of gravity "flows" into the southern latitudes. And since the planet rotates counterclockwise, if you look at the North Pole from above, in the middle latitudes, air flows begin to move from west to east. This is how the west-east transfer occurs. air masses, which creates normal, familiar weather for us. Cyclones come to the center of Russia from the Atlantic, bring rain, go further, to the Volga and the Urals, we have sunny and dry in between cyclones. But this is normal. Now it's different.
Extremely warm in the Arctic: global warming at the poles going faster than the average on Earth. In the spring of 2017, the average temperature in the Arctic latitudes was 3 degrees above the norm, in winter anomalies reached 6 degrees. The area of ice in the Arctic Ocean in April was a record low for this time of year. And open water is always warmer than ice, because of this, the air temperature also rises.
What is the result? The flow of cold air to the southern latitudes is not as powerful as usual. As a result, the west-east jet, which carries cyclones along the usual paths, also weakens. Instead, they rush along a sinusoid: now from north to south, then from south to north. It is called meridional transport of air masses, and it increasingly determines our weather. The frequent arctic intrusions I spoke of are of this nature. Air from the north "falls" far to the south.
BUT cold May in the European part of Russia - the result of the so-called blocking. This is when the meridional flows are squeezed by anticyclones and cannot move anywhere - the air flows for weeks from north to south or from south to north. Remember the heat of 2010? It was a blocking process. Now, too, but with a different sign. For a whole month, Moscow and neighboring regions got only cold air from the north.
Our expert is supported and general secretary World Meteorological Organization Petteri Taalas:
The poles affect the weather at lower latitudes, where hundreds of millions of people live. Arctic warming and shrinking sea ice associated with extreme events such as extended cold spells, heatwaves and droughts in the northern hemisphere, he quotes from an official WMO statement.
NOT JUST WARMING
In fact, any hints of global warming now sound like a mockery. Snow in June is your vaunted global warming? And the fact that on June 15 in Moscow +15 degrees - too? Well, thank you!
What is happening with the climate on the scale of not only Russia, but the whole planet? Tells Alexey Kokorin, Head of the Climate and Energy Program at the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) in Russia:
- Definitely on the planet The earth is coming warming, and this is not my opinion, but a scientific, proven fact. But not everything is so simple.
Yep, we already guessed. If it were just warming, it would be hot now! So I want to yell. But let's listen further:
In all the oceans of the planet, the upper layer of water is gradually warming up to a depth of 700 - 1000 meters. And even at a depth of 2 kilometers, an increase in temperature is noticeable. And the ocean is the main element of the climate system. The atmosphere, unlike the ocean, is very mobile and changeable. And If the ocean is definitely warming, then the atmosphere is climate change.
Indeed: in almost all scientific (not Internet-newspaper) publications, this term is used - climate change, climate change, not global warming. Not because there is no warming. But because Warming is not the only and not the worst thing that is happening to the climate.
And what's the worst? And what to do with it? Read on.
AT Central Russia there will be no summer, and abnormal heat in Siberia
Unprecedented downpours in Moscow, Sochi, Kursk, Voronezh, tornadoes in Dnepropetrovsk - what is happening to the climate? Answered this question Doctor of Geological and Mineralogical Sciences Vladimir Polevanov.
CLIMATE WEAPONS HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT
One of the popular versions of the current weather disasters is climate weapon. Say, America deliberately opened up the abyss of heaven over Russia in June in order to completely destroy the Russian economy, coupled with economic sanctions...
Nonsense, the United States has absolutely nothing to do with it, they suffer even more from climatic cataclysms, - says the former Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation in the Chernomyrdin government, Doctor of Geological and Mineralogical Sciences Vladimir Polevanov. - In January-February, abnormal frosts and snowfalls reigned in America, dozens of people froze to death, airports and schools were closed. Even the geyser in the national park has frozen over… The weather is changing all over the Northern Hemisphere. South is relatively quiet.
So what's going on with the climate?
The planet is now smoothly rolling into the beginning of the next ice age.
- Yes you? But what about global warming?
The worldwide hysteria about global warming was deliberately fanned. The Kyoto Protocol (officially the main weapon in the fight against global warming) is a political and economic club in the hands of the United States against developing countries and other competitors. So that they do not develop their industry. But I am not acting as a politician and a conspiracy theorist.
I am a professional geologist and I know that in 1960 - 1998 the USSR and the USA carried out very expensive program drilling in Greenland and Antarctica more than a dozen wells that penetrated the glaciers to the very foundation. This made it possible to obtain invaluable material for reliable climatic conclusions.
The study of the ice core (rock samples) showed that the epochs of warming and cooling regularly alternated. Over the past 450 thousand years, there have been 6 climatic cycles. We live in the era of the ending interglacial period and naturally roll into the period of the "great cooling".
The first factor in the inevitability of a new cold snap is the cooling of the Gulf Stream. The warm current begins in the Gulf of Mexico and goes to our Murmansk, Severnaya Zemlya, therefore the Barents Sea is non-freezing. However, the Gulf Stream has been weakening in recent years, bringing less and less heat to Europe. This winter, the Murmansk port has frozen over, and this is a rarity! Previously, the Kola Bay was covered with ice no more than once every 25-30 years, but in the new century this has already happened twice.
The second factor is a sharp decrease in the number of spots on the Sun, not yet explained by scientists. Solar power is declining. And the Sun is the main heater of the Earth. To these factors was added a third, man-made. The explosion of an oil well in the Gulf of Mexico, from where the Gulf Stream originates. The weather change accelerated after that catastrophe.
EARLIER FLOODED EUROPE, NOW US
- We are surprised by Moscow tropical downpours.
In recent years, we have seen a similar picture of cars flooded to the roof, stormy streams on TV more than once on the streets of European cities. Now it floods us. Air currents have changed dramatically. The climate is changing throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Similar climatic foci on both sides of the Atlantic will become more and more frequent.
- And how soon will Russia freeze?
There will be enough warmth for our age, don't worry. It will even be warmer than now. From the point of view of geology, this is an instantaneous process of glacier formation - thousands of years. By the standards human life- gigantic period. So congratulations - we live in an era of climate change. But at the very beginning!
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What happens to climate and atmosphere?
Against the background of abnormal weather, when it snows and hail in June, and the temperature is more typical for the beginning of May, many people have a question about the causes of these phenomena.
And though cold summer months and snowy winters, are remembered by those who are over 30 years old, there were not so many records then.
Of course, the media are also to blame for the fact that heavy rain turns into an "Old Testament flood", and the temperature, 1.5-2 degrees below the long-term average, into the "beginning of the ice age" ... A significant part of the records refers to the "records of the day" - when weather indicators of that particular day are compared. For 20, in best case- hundreds of years. That is, there was hail in the neighboring days - but it is no longer included in the selection for comparison. We have new record and a reason, one to cry about the upcoming "Maunder Minimum" and a new ice age; others about global warming. The third to announce the arrival of Nibiru.
Meteorologists, on the other hand, just shrug their shoulders and try not to become extreme, in the face of clearly changed climate and weather patterns.
So what happened, what global changes cause climate instability and frequent weather excesses?
For starters, it would be nice to understand how it used to be in order to see what has changed.
Before they were stable climatic zones, the contents of which were not particularly mixed. The Arctic itself, the North of Eurasia is already warmed by the "Gulf Stream" - as far as its air currents are enough ... Yes, yes, you heard right. Water warm current The Gulf Stream transfers heat very slowly. Heated water from the Gulf of Mexico will reach the shores of Normandy in a few years, and not earlier.
Can she not cool down during this time? Can this critically affect the climate? Yes, and warm water will approach the frozen mainland, it will just wash the shores. As it happens in Alaska and in Greenland.
The main heat transfer occurs with air masses that circulate from heated Africa to the Gulf of Mexico, and then join the masses of a high-altitude jet stream that carries air from west to east. so-called. "western transfer". The high-altitude jet stream is called differently, Jet Stream (jet stream). It crosses the Atlantic and brings warm air from the latitudes of Texas and South Carolina.
And it brings quickly! Storms that occurred on the east coast of the United States are moving east and reach Europe in 3-5 days.
Jet Stream separates climatic zones. From the north side, it involves and carries cool air, from the south it carries away warm streams.
And scientists confirm this:
Another important point which I would like to emphasize: the mean seasonal anomalies of atmospheric circulation in temperate latitudes depend to a very small extent on the anomalies of ocean surface temperature, including such large anomalies as were observed this summer in European Russia. Specialists in seasonal weather forecasting argue that only 10-30% of the deviations from the “norm” of the average seasonal temperature at any point in Russia are due to anomalies in ocean surface temperature, and the remaining 70-90% are the result of natural variability of the atmosphere, the root cause of which is unequal heating high and low latitudes and it is almost impossible to predict which for a period of more than two or three weeks (see also "Science and Life" No. 12, 2010).
That is why it is wrong to consider the observed weather anomalies in Europe in the summer of 2010 or in any other season as the result of only the influence of the ocean. If this were the case, seasonal or monthly weather deviations from the "norm" would be easily predicted, since large anomalies in ocean temperature, as a rule, are inertial and live for at least several months. But so far, no forecasting center in the world has been able to make a good seasonal weather forecast.
In many ways, thanks to him, it remains cold in the Arctic, and hot in the subtropics. If there were no Western Transfer (and it depends on the rotation of the Earth), the temperature difference would tend to even out.
One of the largest links in the general circulation of the atmosphere is the circumpolar vortex. Its formation is due to cold centers in the polar region and heat centers in the tropical zone. Circumpolar motion and its manifestation - western transport - are a stable and characteristic feature of the general atmospheric circulation.
the concept of a high-altitude frontal zone (AHFZ) was introduced, and the strong westerly winds became known as jet streams or jets. The UFZ usually includes one or more fronts and is the place where mobile frontal cyclones and anticyclones appear, moving in the direction of the main (leading) flow. During periods of strong development of the meridionality of the processes, the UFZ, as it were, "wriggles", bending around high-altitude ridges from the north and hollows from the south.
As you can see, these are the foundations of modern knowledge about the atmosphere. Key Factors, which determine the weather, are the cause of cyclones and anticyclones.
And yet, when was the last time you heard about the impact of the Jet Stream (high-altitude jet stream) on the weather in your area? :)
If you read weather news portals Western countries, then every week you will see maps in the videos, where their meteorologists popularly explain about the influence of the Jet Stream on the weather in the region. We don't have that. As if storm fronts and cyclones arise on their own, out of the blue!
Animated explanation of the jet stream from the Met Office (the British school of meteorology, considered one of the best in the world in terms of forecast accuracy):
As the announcer comments, the Jet Stream fluctuates seasonally, rising to the north or sinking to the south; along with it, the cold air masses of the Arctic air invade the territories of Europe and America, or the hot air of the subtropics rises to latitudes unusual for it.
The direction of wind movement from west to east is called latitudinal; direction from north to south, or from south to north - meridional.
Here it is in Russian:
But back to Jet Stream and its displacement. What happens when this huge atmospheric river of air masses curves far north or south?
Actually, the process is interdependent, air masses can move the jet stream (Jet), and it serves as a watershed between them, dividing the climatic zones:
As you can see, hot air presses the Jet stream up, cold air - down.
As a result, when cold air masses come to a warm place, rain falls:
(green indicates rainy area, dark green indicates heavy rainfall)
And when vice versa, then too. Mixing of heated and cold air leads to precipitation and violent atmospheric activity, such as hurricanes, tornadoes, accompanied by strong winds, mixing of atmospheric layers with hail.
Familiar with the weather reports? :)
Let's see how it looks on the maps of Western weather forecasters:
(rain - rain, snow - snow, severe t-storms - severe thunderstorms, showers - precipitation, colder - colder, cool - cool, milder - average weather, heavy rainfall - heavy rain, humid - moisture, windy - windy, ice - ice, frigid - cold)
So, you see what a variety of critical weather phenomena gives rise to a shift and mixing of atmospheric masses of different qualities!
Simplicity and clarity of explanation arose in America not by itself, but under the pressure of necessity.
They have long come to the idea that any instruction should be as clear as possible. Not for the one who composes it, but for the one who will use it ...
Well, in our country, meteorologists make a product for themselves, apparently, and do not condescend to simple explanations. Or maybe they themselves do not understand, judging by the complete disregard for such a weather-determining factor as a high-altitude jet stream.
Let's see if it had an impact in recent events, when it flooded Berlin, swept through Poland, flooded Vilnius and hit Moscow?
And some facts... Weather Digest:
A tornado was observed on the Volga
In the Verkhneuslonsky district of Tatarstan, vacationers on the banks of the Volga on July 2 witnessed the formation of a tornado. They managed to film a water tornado that swept right before their eyes in the immediate vicinity of the pleasure boat.
Tornado in the steppes of Khakassia
Large hail fell in Bashkortostan
On the night of July 3, a hail the size of egg. Damage to rooftops and affected agricultural land is reported.
Spain hit by hail
An abnormal amount of hail has fallen in the city of Girona in the autonomous community of Catalonia. In just 30 minutes, the streets were covered with snowdrifts from hail, which reached a height of up to half a meter.
Car traffic stopped, then the hail began to melt and real rivers flowed through the streets, lifeguards waist-deep in water evacuated people from cars stuck in snowdrifts and water.
A series of tornadoes hit Tatarstan
On the evening of June 1, a hurricane swept across Tatarstan and different places several powerful tornadoes were recorded. ...
Thawing permafrost is accelerating climate change
Monitoring changes in wetland abundance in regions where permafrost is melting should be a key part of efforts to predict future rates of climate change, new research suggests.
Melting permafrost is caused by global warming, which is warming the northern high latitudes faster than other parts of the Earth. The release of permafrost carbon into the atmosphere could accelerate the pace of climate change. If even a small fraction of the carbon is emitted as methane (CH4), a more potent greenhouse gas than CO2, then the feedback becomes even more significant.
Here's the weather forecast for July...
Ministry of Emergency Situations warns of natural disasters in July.
The Russians are also expected in July natural disasters- sudden changes in temperature strong wind, abnormal precipitation, said the head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation Vladimir Puchkov.
"June was difficult and tense. The weather forecast for July indicates that we will have cataclysms," he said at a conference call.
Puchkov explained that "somewhere there may be regular temperature maxima, somewhere sharp temperature drops, high speeds wind, precipitation.
"We must professionally work out all the issues of protecting the life and health of people, the safety of citizens in this summer period", - stressed the head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations.
What happens to climate and atmosphere? Part 2
Therefore, various kinds of hurricanes come to Russia, mainly from places where atmospheric flows mix - from the Atlantic.
On the example of the recent storm that captured the capital of Germany, Poland, Vilnius, Moscow and many settlements smaller, it is interesting to see the participation of different weather factors.
Images - maps of winds at different heights, temperature, pressure and precipitation, taken from a public service.
The cyclone is in full swing, spinning over Germany. Cold air enters it from the north, hot air is pumped in from the south, from Africa. So the weather forecasters of the Hydrometeorological Center would say.
And here is the reason for the sudden mixing of air masses:
Pronounced meridional transfer. Jet Stream, instead of the usual direction from west to east, turned to the north. Altitude about 10 km.
Here, some streams can be seen better, the height is 2 km.
Having formed, this cyclone, with its "blades" - thunderstorm fronts, covered the Baltic and European part Russia.
Since by this time the territory of the Russian Plain was cooled by the "cold summer of the 17th", the hot air masses, moving to the east, caused violent thunderstorm activity.
So you see how easy it is to use different terminology without mentioning the significant factors of weather cuisine.
The storm front is to blame. And where did he come from, why such a coating? So the cyclone is to blame who produced it. Where is the cyclone from? The nervousness of the climate, sir... Such a shitty summer...
In fact, we were witnesses to a process similar to what is happening on Tornado Alley.
You listen to the analysis from Phobos, and you hear: an anticyclone breaks through from the north, Atlantic cyclones bring a lot of moisture and heat... An anticyclone from the south helps to pump Atlantic heat into Russia...
It seems that enemies are everywhere, and there is no explanation for the reasons for what is happening. Where does all this come from, and most importantly, why?
The presenters talk about abnormal heat in Greece and Eastern Europe, and abnormal coolness with rains on the Russian Plain. Any conclusions, at least the slightest, can be drawn from this? As they say in America - they explain it in 2 minutes so that it becomes clear to blacks what is happening today and what to expect in a few days!
The most interesting thing is that weather forecasters use the same interactive maps - in any case, they have appeared in forecasts recently:
But! As you can see, there is no Jet Stream on them. Because these are maps of the surface wind)) On which only local details are visible, but God forbid, no large-scale process.
Otherwise, the audience will have questions - what a huge whirlwind, and why its bends so suspiciously coincide with the places of cyclones and anticyclones!
We cannot assume that meteorologists do not know how to switch the map in height. Then why do they persist in ignoring the chief weather factor- Jet Stream?
It is possible that this is wrecking, using backward technologies.
After all, not only viewers of TV channels receive a blizzard about the struggle and unity of atmospheric phenomena.
As follows from interviews with people from Roshydrometcenter, the founders of the Gismeteo company, they supply their software not only to Roshydromet, but also to the army, special services... Do you understand?
In 1984, businessmen, together with Yuri Yusupov, left work at the main computer center of Roshydromet and created their own project. Shmelkin says that they are almost always engaged in similar tasks - finding software solutions for professional meteorologists.
The state has become an important client of the company. Map Maker sold the GIS Meteo software package to Roshydromet and other organizations (for example, the military). The complex includes software and computer systems - a couple of servers and a number of workstations (computers with installed programs). The cost of one workplace for the customer is about 50 thousand dollars.
At the moment, Roshydromet has purchased about 150 Meteo GIS kits, more than 100 military structures. The FSB, railway workers, aviation and other organizations use MapMaker software packages.
However, this is not enough for enterprising businessmen...
Over the past seven years, the Gismeteo site has generated the lion's share of the profits.
RBC offered to post links to their articles on the site. “They promised absolutely unrealistic money for those times - 500 thousand rubles a month,” says Shmelkin. “We didn’t always earn that much back then. The contract with RBC made it possible to immediately increase the salaries of employees several times.”
it turned out that the site began to bring more profit than the development and implementation of programs. The technological component is developing further, however, in terms of revenue, sales of GIS Meteo cannot now be compared with the Gismeteo website.
As you can see, Gismeteo is more interested in selling advertising space on its Ukrainian and Belarusian sites. Where news regularly appears about "militants from Russia, who are again the brave cyborgs are detaining", and "Donetsk gangs". It is time to raise the question of what government the suppliers of the Russian army are working for.
More about the Gismeteo website and posting anti-Russian propaganda there - for good money, of course.
And in such an environment, when all services use software and models from one campaign, how can meteorologists from Phobos, whether from Hydromet, suddenly “discover” for viewers and customers who have been fed one thing for 20 years that in fact everything is not at all so. This is fraught not only with shame, but also with lawsuits of considerable magnitude. Plus, professional pride does not allow us to recognize the correctness of our Western colleagues, who have not hidden from society for a long time the role and scale of the influence of high-altitude jet streams (jet stream) on the weather.
However, given the anti-Russian activities of Gismeteo on its Ukrainian and Belarusian domains, direct sabotage can also be expected.
But let's digress from the Ukrainian topic and return to the abnormal weather in Russia. Rain, cold, and sometimes snow, got the inhabitants of many regions of the country.
The mixing of cold and hot air masses in the process of meridional transport ensured the active formation of cyclones and abundant precipitation.
But what does Jet Stream have to do with it?
We turn again to interactive maps, a little earlier:
This is the reason for the cold May and June. The bend of the Jet Stream, along the eastern edge of which Arctic air masses entered Russia.
Therefore, it was abnormally warm in the Urals and Siberia, because hot air from the Black Sea and the Caspian was actively flowing along the lower edge of the Jet Stream.
And since, I repeat again, the process goes in a pronounced meridian direction, the collision of air masses of different quality forms giant whirlwinds - cyclones, with precipitation volumes unusual for the place and time.
Here are the areas of increased and reduced pressure, exactly where the jet stream turns, to the right (clockwise, an anticyclone forms), or to the left (counterclockwise, a cyclone forms):
That is, this yellow anticyclone in Europe, it is not "blocking" at all, which allegedly prevents the jet stream from passing along the usual route from west to east. It is formed due to the whirl of the Jet Stream! And it was abnormally warm there, yes. Fires in Portugal, that's all. The air moves from south to north, hot from Africa is sucked in.
Here is the temperature map of that period, so as not to be unfounded. Appreciate the heating of Europe, and admire the influx of Arctic air into the Russian Plain, while heated masses enter Siberia from the southwest.
Clearly on the borders of the Jet Stream.
Those who carefully read the article will certainly have a question: what is the reason for such a change in the behavior of high-altitude jet streams, why did they begin to bend so strongly to the north? There are only assumptions here. For example, that the rotation of the Earth slows down, the speed of the Jet Stream drops, it begins to behave more freely. Like it or not, it is difficult to judge.
We can only state facts and accumulate observations.
Can high-altitude jet streams be influenced by experiments and the directed influence of American military stations on the atmosphere? Definitely, they influence - as well as large-scale spraying of various substances in the atmosphere. Otherwise, in the absence of results, the Pentagon and the US government would not approve the budget for the construction of more and more stations, which, in fact, cover the entire Earth.
Millions of copper needles sprayed into the upper layers of the atmosphere to improve the reflection of powerful pulses from these stations have changed its properties and serve as a "mirror" for the further application of military technologies not limited by any arms treaty.
At the same time, the military is a special, separate caste, which may not give a damn about the fact that their experiments affect their own civilian population. After all, their goal is a superweapon.
And she justifies any sacrifice, as we know from history...
Addition for those who actively deny the existence of the above factors. Forecasters, apparently, have already received a scolding for poor-quality coverage of the situation, and were forced to get into textbooks in order to somehow explain the reasons. It's even funny how they try their best not to mention the "white elephant"!
Causes of the cold second half of spring and early summer
For the third month in a row, the atmospheric situation in Eurasia is determined by large Rossby waves. Having increased in amplitude and become inactive, they form large weather waves with different signs in adjacent regions. Yes, over Eastern Europe a hollow of this wave is located, which determines a protracted period of unstable cool weather, and crests over Western Europe and Siberia (in these regions it has been dry and very warm since April). When the large Rossby waves break up, or their amplitude decreases, the atmosphere will move, and the weather will become normal for this time.
Hysmeteo Rossby Waves
The main driving force of the atmosphere is the energy of the Sun. However, its rays fall on the Earth at different angles. Because of this, large temperature contrasts arise between the equator and the poles. While at the equator the Sun is at its zenith almost all year round, the polar regions receive light and heat only during the summer season. But as the atmosphere tends to heat balance, then warm air from the equatorial regions is directed towards the poles. This leads to the formation of moderate and high latitudes planets of low pressure areas.
As a rule, they occur at the polar front, where cold polar air masses from the north meet warm subtropical air from the south. The zone of separation of air masses is a narrow wavy ribbon, which, by the name of the scientist who described it, was called the Rossby waves.
Rossby waves are several thousand kilometers long. around the circumference the globe usually 3-6 such waves fit.
In the general circulation system on the planet, Rossby waves play important role. They correspond to the axis of tropospheric and stratospheric jet streams, which control the location of cyclones and anticyclones and thus ensure heat exchange between low and high latitudes.
Under certain conditions, Rossby waves can become stationary, blocking the usual westerly transport due to the Coriolis force, and even forming the opposite - easterly waves. In this case, cold air from the polar regions flows to the subtropics, and subtropical air flows to the pole. As a result, large weather anomalies with different signs occur in the adjacent regions of the planet.
It's no secret that the climate of our planet is changing, and recently it has been happening very quickly. Snow falls in Africa, and incredible heat is observed in our latitudes in summer. Many different theories have already been put forward about the causes and likely consequences of such a change. Some talk about the coming apocalypse, while others convince that there is nothing wrong with that. Let's see what are the causes of climate change, who is to blame and what to do?
Yakutia tamed extreme climate
It's all about melting arctic ice…
The Arctic ice that covers the Arctic Ocean did not allow the inhabitants of temperate latitudes to freeze in winter. "The reduction in Arctic ice extent is directly related to heavy winter snowfall in temperate latitudes and incredible heat in summer," said Stephen Vavrus, senior fellow at the Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies.
The scientist explained that the heated regions over regions in temperate latitudes and the cold Arctic air created a certain difference in atmospheric pressure. Air masses moved from west to east, forcing ocean currents to move and generating strong winds. "Now the Arctic is moving into a new state," says scientist David Titley, who worked for the US Navy. He noted that the melting process ice is coming very quickly, and by 2020 the Arctic will be completely free of ice in summer.
Recall that the Antarctic and the Arctic work like huge air conditioners: any weather anomalies moved quickly enough and destroyed by winds and currents. Recently, due to the melting of ice, the air temperature in the polar regions has been rising, so the natural mechanism of "mixing" the weather stops. As a result, weather anomalies (heat, snowfalls, frosts or showers) "get stuck" in one area much longer than before
Global warming on earth
UN specialists predict disasters for our planet in the near future due to global warming. Today, everyone has already begun to get used to the crazy tricks of the weather, realizing that something utterly going on with the climate. The main threat represents production activity humans, because a lot of carbon dioxide is emitted into the atmosphere. According to the theories of some experts, this delays the thermal radiation of the Earth, leads to overheating, resembling the greenhouse effect.
Over the past 200 years, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased by a third, and the average temperature on the planet has risen by 0.6 degrees. Temperatures in the northern hemisphere of the planet rose more in a century than in the previous thousand years. If the same rates of industrial growth continue on Earth, then by the end of this century, global climate change threatens humanity - the temperature will rise by 2-6 degrees, and the oceans will rise by 1.6 meters.
To prevent this from happening, the Kyoto Protocol was developed, the main goal of which is to limit carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere. It should be noted that warming in itself is not so dangerous. The climate that was 50 centuries BC will return to us. Our civilization in those comfortable conditions developed normally. Not warming is dangerous, but its suddenness. Climate change is happening so fast that it leaves no time for humanity to adapt to these new conditions.
The people of Africa and Asia, which, moreover, are now experiencing a demographic boom, will suffer the most from climate change. According to Robert Watson, leader of the UN panel of experts, warming will have a negative impact on agriculture, there will be terrible droughts, causing shortages drinking water and various epidemics. In addition, abrupt climate change leads to the formation of destructive typhoons, which have become more frequent in recent years.
Consequences of global warming
The consequences can be truly catastrophic. Deserts will expand, floods and storms will become more frequent, fever and malaria will spread. Yields will drop significantly in Asia and Africa, but in South-East Asia they will grow up. Floods will become more frequent in Europe, Holland and Venice will go into the depths of the sea. New Zealand and Australia will be thirsty, and the east coast of the United States will be in a zone of destructive storms, there will be coastal erosion. Ice drift in the Northern Hemisphere will start two weeks earlier. The ice cover of the Arctic will be reduced by about 15 percent. In Antarctica, the ice will recede by 7-9 degrees. Tropical ice will also melt in the mountains of South America, Africa and Tibet. Migratory birds will spend more time in the north.
What should Russia expect?
Russia, according to some scientists, will suffer from global warming 2-2.5 times more than the rest of the planet. This is due to the fact that the Russian Federation is buried in snow. White reflects the sun, and black - on the contrary, attracts. Widespread snowmelt will change the reflectivity and cause additional warming of the land. As a result, wheat will be grown in Arkhangelsk, and watermelons in St. Petersburg. Global warming could also deal a severe blow to the Russian economy as permafrost under cities begins to melt Far North where the pipelines that support our economy are located.
What to do?
Now the problem of controlling carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere is being solved with the help of the quota system provided for by the Kyoto Protocol. Within the framework of this system, governments of various countries set limits for energy and other enterprises on emissions of substances that pollute the atmosphere. First of all, it concerns carbon dioxide. These permits can be freely bought and sold. For example, some industrial enterprise reduced their emissions, leaving them with a "surplus" of the quota.
They sell these surpluses to other enterprises, which find it cheaper to buy them than to take real measures to reduce emissions. Dishonest businessmen earn good money on this. This approach does little to improve the situation with climate change. Therefore, some experts have proposed introducing a direct tax on carbon dioxide emissions.
However, this decision was never made. Many agree that quotas or taxes are ineffective. There is a need to encourage a shift from fossil fuels to innovative energy technologies that add little or no increase in greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Two economists from McGill University,
Christopher Green and Isabelle Galyana recently presented a project that proposed $100 billion annually in energy technology research. The money for this can be taken from the tax on carbon dioxide emissions. These funds would be enough to introduce new production technologies that would not pollute the atmosphere. Economists estimate that every dollar spent on Scientific research, will help to avoid 11 dollars. damage from climate change.
There is another way. It is difficult and expensive, but it can completely solve the problem of melting glaciers if all the countries of the Northern Hemisphere act decisively and together. Some experts propose to create a hydraulic structure in the Bering Strait capable of regulating water exchange between the Arctic,
Quiet and Atlantic Oceans. In some circumstances, it should act as a dam and prevent the passage of water from the Pacific Ocean to the Arctic Ocean, and in other circumstances - as a powerful pumping station that will pump water from the Arctic Ocean. Arctic Ocean to Quiet. This maneuver artificially creates the mode of the end of the ice age. The climate is changing, every inhabitant of our Earth feels it. And it changes very quickly. Therefore, it is necessary for countries to unite and find optimal solutions to overcome this problem. After all, everyone will suffer from climate change.
Russian scientists do not always agree with the forecasts and hypotheses of their Western colleagues. Pravda.Ru asked Andrey Shmakin, head of the climatology laboratory of the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Geography, to comment on this topic:
- Only non-specialists, non-meteorologists talk about the cold snap. If you read our hydrometeorological service reports, it clearly states that warming is on the way.
What awaits us all, no one knows. Now it's warming up. The consequences are very different. There are positive ones, and there are negative ones. In Russia, warming is simply more pronounced than in many other regions of the world, this is true, and the consequences can be both positive and negative. What is the effect, what are the advantages - this must be carefully considered.
Let's say a negative phenomenon is yes, the thawing of permafrost, the spread of diseases, there may be some increase in forest fires. But there are also positives. These are the reduction of the cold season, the lengthening of the agricultural season, the increase in the productivity of grasses and grass communities, and forests. Lots of different consequences. Opening of the North Sea route for navigation, lengthening of this navigation. And this is not done on the basis of some hasty statements.
- How fast goes process changes climate?
“It's a slow process. In any case, you can adapt to it and develop adaptation measures. This is a process on the scale of several decades, at least, and even more. It's not like tomorrow - "that's it, goons, grab your bags - the station is leaving", there is no such thing.
— U our scientists a lot of works on the this topic?
- A lot of. For starters, take a few years ago there was a report called "Assessment Report on Climate Change in Russia". It was published by the Russian hydrometeorological service with the involvement of scientists from the Russian Academy of Sciences and universities. This is a serious analytical work, everything is considered there, how the climate is changing, what are the consequences for different regions Russia.
- Can whether how- then slow down this is process? Kyoto protocol, for example?
- The Kyoto Protocol in a practical sense brings very few results, namely those that are declared in it - to influence climate change, it is practically ineffective. Simply because the emission reductions it provides are extremely small, they have little effect on the overall global picture of these elections. It's just not efficient.
Another thing is that he paved the way for agreements in this area. It was the first agreement of its kind. If the parties then acted actively and tried to work out new agreements, this could bring some results. Now new documents have come into force instead of the Kyoto Protocol, it has expired. And they are still just as little effective in the main. Some countries have no restrictions at all, some have very small restrictions on emissions. In general, it is difficult technologically, because it is almost impossible to completely switch to such technologies in order not to produce any emissions into the atmosphere. This is a very expensive undertaking, no one will go for it. Therefore, rely only on this ...
- What kind- then other measures?
- Firstly, it is not considered absolutely established that in general a person influences the climate system so much. Of course, it influences, this is undoubted, but the degree of this influence is a matter of discussion. Different scholars hold different points of view.
The measures should basically be apparently adaptive. Because even without any person, the climate is still changing according to its internal laws. It's just that humanity should be ready for climate change in different directions and taking into account the effects that this can generate.