Course work: Methodology of social forecasting. The main concept here is “system” - a whole made up of parts; a connection, or a set of elements with relationships and connections between them, forming a certain integrity. Necessary
The set of various concepts about the future of humanity is sometimes called futurology (from Latin futurum - future and Greek logos - teaching). The basis of future research is the idea of foresight, forecasting the future states of the social system.
From the point of view of the relationship between the cultural-ideological and scientific-rational components, the concept of the future can be divided into two groups. The first includes non-scientific ideas about the future, the second – scientific ones.
Non-scientific ideas arose earlier in culture and are of greater interest in the mass consciousness, since they do not require practical testing of their effectiveness and special preparation for perception. Elements of predicting the future are contained in magic, religion, and myth. For example, Christianity contains predictions of the distant future such as the Second Coming or the Last Judgment. During the Renaissance, social utopia became widespread. For example, books by T. Mora and T. Campanella. They construct a holistic picture of the future society, taking into account the smallest details. The ways and mechanisms for achieving this future are not indicated. Literary utopias and dystopias of the 19th–20th centuries deserve attention. For example, novels by N.G. Chernyshevsky, E.I. Zamyatin, O. Huxley, D. Orwell, F. Kafka. They help to clearly imagine negative phenomena that exist only in embryo and contribute to the development of a social ideal. Fantasy plays a special role. Being a literary work in form, it relies heavily on scientific knowledge and technical achievements.
Scientific research into the future became widespread in the 20th century and was realized in the development of a methodology for social forecasting.
Social forecasting is a special type of studying the future, based on special methods and characterized by a high degree of scientific validity and objectivity. The main task of social forecasting is to substantiate trends and plans for social development and increase their effectiveness. The basis of social forecasting is social forecasting.
A social forecast is a theoretical model of the future state of the phenomenon being studied. Social forecast is probabilistic in nature and is based on the ability of human consciousness to proactively reflect reality. There are many social forecasts that can be divided into separate types according to various criteria.
Depending on which particular sphere of reality is reflected, forecasts regarding natural or social systems. For example, meteorological, hydrological, geological, medical-biological, socio-medical, scientific and technical forecasts.
Forecasts also vary in scale. They can describe the future state of both the system as a whole and its individual subsystems or elements. For example, the development of legal education at the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, or in the Republic of Belarus as a whole.
From the point of view of chronological parameters, forecasts can be focused on the near future or on the long term: long-term, medium-term, short-term.
Social forecasts relating to specific areas of society and designed for rapid implementation in the current time are called social technologies. Specific indicators play a leading role in their development. Long-term forecasts are based on integrated and systematic approaches. Their direct effectiveness is lower than that of short-term forecasts, but the choice of alternative development models is richer.
Social forecasts take into account practical significance and the expected reaction on the part of stakeholders. Depending on this, they are search, normative and analytical. Search forecasts build a probabilistic model, i.e. show what the future could be like, in what direction development will go if existing trends are maintained. They are often cautionary in nature. Regulatory forecasts contain goals and recommendations, set a specific framework for the development of a process and its desired results. They are based on a legal basis and may be prescriptive in nature. Analytical forecasts not only create alternative models of the future, but also evaluate methods and means, costs and expenses in achieving them.
The effectiveness of social forecasts is determined by objectivity and accuracy in the analysis real processes; professionalism, responsibility and ideological attitudes of forecast developers; availability of technological and financial means. Social forecasting methods play a leading role in developing forecasts.
There are quite a large number of different methods, special techniques, technical, mathematical and logical means of creating social forecasts. The most famous of them:
The extrapolation method is based on the distribution, transfer of characteristics of a part or element of a phenomenon to the entire phenomenon as a whole. For example, based on observation of individual members of a social group, a conclusion is drawn about the level of culture of the entire group.
The interpolation method is based on transferring the characteristics of a holistic reality to the elements of which it consists. If we look at the previous example, then interpolation consists of projecting conclusions about a social group onto each individual member of this group.
The method of historical analogy is based on the assumption of similarity, correspondence of states of the same phenomenon in the present and future.
The modeling method is based on creating special substitutes for real objects or phenomena to study their properties and reactions under changing conditions. Modeling has a sign-symbolic form and is associated with the use of computer technology. Computer global modeling of the prospects for human development and the “limits of growth” of technological civilization is carried out in the preparation of reports of the Club of Rome. The degree of validity of this method is very high.
The method of expert assessments is based on comparing constantly changing information about a system with predetermined digital indicators. Evaluation is a way of establishing the significance of a phenomenon for an acting and cognizing subject. An expert is a highly educated specialist, a scientist, who makes an assessment. The significance of a phenomenon can be theoretical, practical and axiological. It depends on the nature of the needs and demands in the activity.
The method of drawing up future scenarios is a description of the future, compiled taking into account plausible provisions. It represents a certain number of probable development options, several scenarios: optimistic, pessimistic and average (most likely). Developed for specific objects: technology, market, country, region. They cover a large time period, so the reliability is low.
Exercise
1. Formulate the main objectives of sustainable development of the Republic of Belarus in the conditions of scientific and technological progress and globalization.
2. In what form and extent are the global problems of our time manifested in the Republic of Belarus? How are they taken into account in legislation?
3. Give examples of social and legal forecasts, forecasts in the activities of employees of internal affairs bodies and determine the degree of their effectiveness.
COURSE WORK
In the discipline "Fundamentals of Social Forecasting"
Topic: “Methodology of Social Forecasting”
Introduction
Forecasting – This is a method of scientific research that aims to provide possible options for those processes and phenomena that are chosen as the subject of analysis.
The forecasting process is quite relevant at present. The scope of its application is wide. Forecasting is widely used in economics, namely in management. In management, the concepts of “planning” and “forecasting” are closely intertwined. They are not identical and do not replace each other. Plans and forecasts differ in time boundaries, the degree of detail of the indicators they contain, the degree of accuracy and probability of their achievement, targeting and, finally, legal basis. Forecasts, as a rule, are indicative in nature, and plans are of a directive nature. Not substitution and opposition of plan and forecast, but their correct combination - this is the way of systematic regulation of the economy in the conditions market economy and go to it.
In industry, forecasting methods also play a paramount role. Using extrapolation and trend, it is possible to draw preliminary conclusions regarding various processes, phenomena, reactions, and operations. There are many forecasting methods. Having differentiated their total number, it is necessary to select the optimal one for use in each specific situation.
Analysis of forecasting methods, study of these methods, their use in different areas activity is an event of rationalization nature. The degree of reliability of the forecasts can then be compared with actual real indicators, and, having drawn conclusions, proceed to the next forecast with existing data, i.e. current trend. Based on the data obtained, it is possible in the time aspect to move to a higher level, etc.
A forecast model is a model of a forecast object, the study of which allows one to obtain information about the possible states of objects in the future and (or) the ways and timing of their implementation.
Social Forecasting– forecasting everything social, everything connected with society, social relations, at the center of which is a person.
1.1 Concept and essence of social forecasting methodology
Forecasting– the science of the system of our thinking about the future, of the ways and methods of studying the future, of finding multivariate alternatives for changing the future, which is probabilistic in nature.
Forecasting (futurology) is a scientific discipline about the patterns of development of forecasts.
Social Forecasting is aimed at making changes in the social sphere of man and society and represents one of the manifestations of the purposeful activities of managers in the development and preparation of various options for solving social problems.
Social Forecasting Methodology explores the future in ontological, logical and epistemological aspects.
Ontological aspect shows how the future is born and formed, characterizes its overall picture, and the factors influencing it.
Logical aspect allows you to form a forecast on the basis of dialectical principles, the basis of which is the general laws of development of nature and society, as well as methods of scientific thinking.
Epistemological aspect has as its task to find out how the future is reflected in human consciousness, what are the forms of this reflection, its truth. Being a form of cognition, a forecast from the epistemological side is a reflection of the pattern and possible ways of development of the predicted processes and phenomena.
Cognition of objective truth in forecasting occurs in the direction from living contemplation to abstract thinking, and from it to practical implementation.
Methodology(concept, doctrine) - a system of principles and methods of organizing and constructing theoretical and practical activities, as well as the doctrine of this system. If theory is the result of the process of knowledge, then methodology is the way to achieve this knowledge.
Social forecasting consists of several stages, so at each stage specific cognitive problems are solved. Particularly important for forecasting methodology is the stage of pre-forecast orientation, at which the research concept and conceptual apparatus are developed, the basic methodological principles of analysis and forecast, methods and techniques are determined, hypotheses are formed, which are to be tested during the research.
1.2 Basic principles and criteria of social forecasting methodology
Under forecast is understood as a scientifically based judgment about the possible states of an object in the future, about alternative ways and timing of its implementation. The process of developing forecasts is called forecasting .
Object social forecasting can be all social systems, all phenomena occurring in society.
Subject social forecasting are people - individual scientists and practitioners and research organizations.
Subject is to improve the needs of society and meet its needs.
The basis for the formation of forecasts is static information and an information array - a system of parameters and factors determined on a scientific basis that comprehensively characterize the forecast object.
There are the following forecast types:
1) By management hierarchy:
a) forecasts for the development of individual enterprises and their associations
b) forecasts for the development of industries and clusters
c) forecasts for the development of municipalities
d) regional development forecasts
e) country development forecasts
f) forecasts for the development of international cooperation and international structures
g) global forecasts (worldwide)
2) According to the lead time of events:
a) operational (7 days-1 year)
b) short-term (1–3 years)
c) medium-term (4–10 years)
d) long-term (10–20 years)
e) long-term (20–50 years)
f) ultra-long-term (50 years or more)
3) By object and horizon:
a) quantitatively specific (the solution options with a set of development indicators are clearly calculated)
b) quality
4) According to the method of providing forecast information:
a) point (as a single value)
b) interval (set of predicted value values based on interval calculations)
5) Functionally:
a) search
b) normative
Currently, several methodological principles of social forecasting are identified, on the basis of which the forecast object is analyzed and the forecast itself is developed.
A principle is the basis from which one must proceed and by which one must be guided in action.
1) Systematic principle in forecasting. The main concept here is “system” - a whole made up of parts; a connection, or a set of elements with relationships and connections between them, forming a certain integrity. It should be borne in mind that the essence of the concept of a system is closely related to such categories as: integrity, structure, element connection, subsystem relationship, etc.
A characteristic feature of a system is the ability of many elements that form the system to withstand the environment. And, in addition, the functioning of the system is based on a certain ordering of its elements, relationships and connections.
A social system is understood as a complex, ordered whole, including individuals and social communities, united by various connections and relationships, specifically social in nature.
2) The principle of historicism in social foresight, it focuses on the study of specific patterns, the conditions for their development and requires the foresight of global changes to be supported by systematic forecasting of more private social processes.
In this sense, the forecast clarifies our understanding of the general development trend, reveals specific features and features of the future development of phenomena, localizes them within spatiotemporal boundaries, i.e. represents a prognostic model of the development of a given phenomenon or process. In this case, possible changes in the forecast fund are taken into account, i.e. conditions in the future.
3) Using principle of social determination and development forecasting takes into account diverse connections and dependencies in public life(within the framework of a systems approach). It is known that the phenomena of the material and spiritual world are in an objective, natural relationship and interdependence (determinism). And an important element of this conditionality is causality, i.e. such a connection of phenomena in which one phenomenon (cause), under well-defined conditions, necessarily gives rise to, produces another phenomenon (effect). Scenario modeling and scenario thinking are based on this proposition.
4) Principle of consistency implies coordination of normative and search approaches and, accordingly, forecasts; forecasts of the possible development of various spheres - economic, environmental, demographic and others, different periods advances in the forecast - short-, medium-, long-term, and beyond long-term.
5) Verifiability principle forecasting indicates a mandatory procedure for checking developed forecasts for accuracy, reliability, reliability, and their validity. There is a whole group of methods for this purpose, which will be discussed below.
6)Principle of profitability Forecasting is closely related to reliability, because only a reliable forecast can be cost-effective. This means that the costs of developing a forecast, and this is a very expensive study, must pay off not only, but also bring profit, income to the customer when using it, or a positive effect in any other case.
7)Continuity principle forecasting (especially in crisis conditions) requires adjustment of forecasts as new data about the forecast object becomes available. And this is possible with the functioning of constantly operating forecasting systems in research centers in order to monitor the situation and, accordingly, refine the forecast. Only in this case can you count on a reliable forecast.
2.1 System of social forecasting indicators
The system of social forecasting indicators is usually divided into 2 categories:
1) Qualitative and quantitative
2) Individual and group.
Absolute indicators are expressed in absolute values, for example in pieces (pieces). Relative - in shares, i.e. in percent (%). Natural are expressed in natural quantities, for example the milk yield of cows. Values have a monetary form of expression. Comparative ones are based on the method of comparison, and contextual ones are based on choice.
Structural indicators are based on data between components social sphere. Global indicators involve consideration of the social system as a whole, i.e. on a global scale.
2.2 Classification and characteristics of social forecasting methods
Social forecasting as a study with a wide coverage of objects of analysis is based on many methods. When classifying forecasting methods, their main features are identified.
Social Forecasting Methods– a set of techniques and ways of thinking that allow, based on the analysis of retrospective data, exogenous (external) and endogenous (internal) connections of the forecast object, as well as their measurements within the framework of the phenomenon or process under consideration, to derive judgments of a certain reliability regarding its (object’s) future development.
There are a large number of social forecasting methods and therefore they are distinguished 2 main groups of methods .
1) Simple Methods
Factual forecasting methods based on factual information material used in search forecasting and include:
1) statistical methods
Extrapolation method
It comes from processing the quantitative characteristics of an object obtained in the past and present with the relative stability of the system. The main one is time series analysis.
Method of analogy, etc.
Mathematical analogies include economic models and interobject analogs. They are most often used as the simplest economic forecasting models. Historical analogies are associated with advances (industrial or regional).
2) methods for analyzing publications
Dynamics
Construction of time series based on various types information,
analysis and forecasting on this basis of the development of the corresponding
object.
Publication
The publication forecasting method is based on assessing the content and dynamics of publications relative to the object of study.
Patenting
Provides for the assessment of fundamentally new inventions according to the accepted criteria system and the study of the dynamics of their patenting.
Expert forecasting methods are based on the knowledge of specialist experts about the forecast object and a generalization of their opinions about the development of the object in the future.
The methodology of expert work includes a number of stages:
– the circle of experts is determined;
– problems are identified;
– a plan and time of action are outlined;
– criteria for expert assessments are developed;
– the forms and methods in which the results of the examination will be expressed are indicated
In normative forecasting, individual and collective forecasting methods are used.
Individual methods include :
Interview (direct contact between an expert and a specialist is carried out using a question-answer scheme)
Analytical expert assessments, etc.
They represent a deep and comprehensive analysis of possible scenarios for the development of the process under study. In this case, the expert can use additional documentary materials and think about his answers for quite a long time.
Collective methods include:
Building a scenario
A scenario is a description (a hypothetical picture) of the future, compiled taking into account the most plausible assumptions. Scenarios are developed to frame future developments. The forecast includes several scenarios (“scenario tube”). In most cases, these are three scenarios: optimistic, pessimistic and average - realistic (most likely.
- “goal tree”
« “Tree of Goals” is a structured set of goals of a system, program, plan, built on a hierarchical principle (ranked by levels). It is built by sequentially isolating smaller and smaller components at decreasing levels and is a combination of a general goal, a main goal and subgoals.
Morpho logical analysis etc.
Allows you to create new information about an object as a result of systematizing data on all possible solutions the problem under study.
2) Complex methods
These include:
1) Predictive graph method
A graph is a figure consisting of points, called vertices, and segments connecting them, called edges. The choice of graph structure is determined by the essence of the relationships between the elements of the system that it must express.
The basis of the method is expert and formal mathematical procedures for constructing and analyzing a graph, which reflects the generalized judgment of a wide range of specialists about the needs, possible ways and resources necessary to achieve the goal.
At each level, a group of experts formulates goal events and conditions for their achievement.
The advantage of the method is the ability to work with the graph in the dialogue mode “human – information system"to test some situations, that is, the ability to play different situations.
The graph is a dynamic system, and when supplied by experts new information assessments, forecast options and decisions made are reviewed.
2) Pattern system method
Used when planning developments under conditions of uncertainty. The method is based on dividing a complex problem into smaller problems until each sub-problem can be diversified (according to different criteria) and reliably assessed by experts in quantitative terms.
This method is used mainly to predict the extent to which the formulated goals and objectives will be achieved by those who manage the situation.
Method structure:
· selection of forecast object
· identification of current internal and external patterns
· analysis of the hierarchy of patterns indicating the coefficient of relative importance of each level within a unit and the sum of hierarchy levels equal to one
· formulation of the general goal of the forecast and tasks to achieve it
· script preparation (for example, development)
· development of an algorithm for resource distribution
· assessment of distribution results
The forecasting process is carried out using systems analysis methodology. The most important thing is that it allows you to abandon financially insecure and secondary topics.
3) Simulation method
1) constructing a model based on a preliminary study of the object;
2) highlighting the essential characteristics of the object;
3) experimental and theoretical analysis models;
4) comparison of modeling results with actual data of the object;
5) adjustment or refinement of the model.
Economic and mathematical modeling is based on the principle of analogy, that is, the possibility of studying an object through consideration of another object that is similar to it and more accessible. Such a more accessible object is an economic-mathematical model. It is a system of formalized equations that describe the basic relationships of the elements that form economic system or any economic process.
This model makes it possible to bring to a complete and comprehensive description the process of obtaining and processing initial information, as well as to solve the problems under consideration in a fairly wide class of specific cases.
4) Foresight method
Foresight (English - vision of the future) - the process of systematically trying to look into the distant future in order to identify areas of strategic research and technology that are likely to bring the greatest economic and social benefits; a complex mechanism that achieves results through a combination of a system of methods.
This method includes planning, monitoring the implementation of the plan drawn up taking into account the method. Combines forecasting and planning functions. In addition to experts, practitioners and managers are involved. Those. experience is used, which is not always a source of innovation. This is the most used method in the world.
Forecasting methods can be further divided into two additional groups (Fig. 1):
1) intuitive methods (based on the predominance of intuition, that is, subjective principles)
2) formalized methods
Intuitive methods forecasting is used in cases where it is impossible to take into account the influence of many factors due to the insignificant complexity of the forecast object. This method includes a database of expert opinions, based on whose creative thinking it is possible to build a reliable picture of the future with subsequent formal processing of the forecast results.
The main central stage of intuitive forecasting is conducting surveys of experts on methods:
individual and collective
· personal and correspondence
· oral and written
open and anonymous
The intuitive forecasting method has the following structure:
1) formation of expert teams and assessment of the competence of experts
2) synthesis of graphs of the modeled research object
3) formation of questions and development of tables of expert assessments
4) analysis of the experts’ work
5) algorithm for processing tables of expert assessments
6) a method for varying the obtained forecasts and synthesizing forecast models.
There are individual and collective expert assessments.
Included individual expert assessments includes:
1) “Interview” method
There is direct contact between the expert and the specialist using the question-answer scheme.
2) Analytical method
A logical analysis of any predicted situation is carried out, and analytical reports are compiled. Includes system analysis(integrity and unity of its elements), index analysis (the ratio of performance indicators to factor indicators and the ratio of homogeneous products to each other in different periods of time) and synthesis.
3) Script writing method
Based on determining the logic of development of a process or phenomenon over time under various conditions. The main purpose of the scenario is to determine the general goal of development of the predicted object, phenomenon and to formulate criteria for assessing the upper levels of the “tree of goals.” A scenario is a picture that displays a consistent detailed solution to a problem, identification of possible obstacles, detection of serious deficiencies in order to resolve the issue of possible termination of work started or completion of ongoing work on the projected object.
Methods collective expert assessments include:
1) “Commissions” method
A group of experts meets repeatedly to discuss the same issue. The “Commissions” method involves conducting an examination in the form of a free exchange of opinions to obtain a general judgment of experts. Full-time communication between experts significantly reduces the examination time and facilitates obtaining a single agreed opinion. When using the commission method, a discussion program is first developed. A group of experts is selected “voluntarily” - by appointment. Usually this is 10–12 people.
2) “Brain attack” (“Brainstorm”)
The essence of the brainstorming method is to update the potential of specialists when analyzing a problem situation, which first involves the generation of ideas and the subsequent destruction of these ideas. The presenter reveals the contents of the problematic note and the “assault” continues for 20–60 minutes.
3) Delphi method
It is built on the principle of generalizing the opinions of individual experts into a coherent group opinion and involves a complete rejection of collective discussions.
4) Matrix method
A forecasting method based on the use of matrices reflecting the values (weights) of the vertices of the graph model of the forecast object, followed by transformation of the matrices and operating with them. The matrix model is a rectangular table, the elements of which reflect the relationship of objects.
Rice. 1. Classification of forecasting methods by formalization
Formal forecasting includes:
1. Forecast extrapolation method
It comes from processing the quantitative characteristics of an object obtained in the past and present with the relative stability of the system. This method can be used when forecasting for a future of 5–7 years, since errors accumulate over time.
These methods include:
1) Least squares
It consists of finding the parameters of a trend model that minimize its deviation from the points of the original time series. An important point in obtaining a forecast using this method is assessing the reliability of the result obtained.
2) Exponential smoothing
It is a very effective and reliable forecasting method. The main advantages of the method are the ability to take into account the weights of the initial information, the simplicity of computational operations, and the flexibility of describing various process dynamics. This method makes it possible to obtain an estimate of trend parameters that characterize not intermediate level process, but a trend that had developed at the time of observation. Found the method greatest application as a method for implementing medium-term forecasts.
3) Moving averages
Moving average extrapolation involves calculating the average of groups of data over a certain period of time. Moreover, each subsequent group of data is formed by a shift of 1 year or month. As a result, the initial fluctuation of the smoothing time series. The essence of the method is that the time-forecast indicator will be equal in value to the average calculated for the last time interval.
2. Modeling methods
Modeling – This is a method of studying objects of knowledge on their analogues - material or mental.
Modeling happens:
Structural (represents the development of many methods of multivariate analysis, namely multiple linear regression, analysis of variance, factor analysis)
Network (allows you to implement systematic approach, apply mathematical methods and modern computer technology in the study of complex processes, increase the efficiency of planning and management of such processes), etc.
Modeling methods are the most complex method forecasting, consisting of a variety of approaches to forecasting complex systems, processes and phenomena. These methods may also overlap with expert methods.
3. Main directions for improving the methodology of social forecasting
3.1 Problems of development and directions for improving the methodology of social forecasting
The main task of forecasting is the development of forecasting methodology in order to increase the efficiency of methods and techniques for developing forecasts. The problems of forecasting include the study of the features of forecasting as a form of concretization of scientific foresight and as a specific type of scientific research, principles of optimal selection and combination of forecasting methods, methods of checking and assessing the reliability of forecasts, principles of using the findings of cybernetics, probability theory, game theory, operations research to develop forecasts , decision making theories, etc.
For forecasting to be most effective, goals must be specific and measurable. That is, for each goal there must be criteria that would allow assessing the degree to which the goal has been achieved. Without these criteria, it is impossible to implement one of the main functions of management and control.
Forecasting methodology plays an important role in forecasting. Among the methods most often used in forecasting social development and living standards of the population are the following: the method of expert assessments; normative method; extrapolation method; method of economic and mathematical modeling; exponential smoothing, etc.
The methodology for forecasting the social development of regions is especially important. In recent years, at the regional level (republics, territories, regions), work has been and is being carried out to draw up short-term and medium-term forecasts of economic and social development.
The methodological prerequisites for such forecasting are that the region is an integral subsystem common system social production, performing a certain national economic function through the production of a certain number of products or services that are the subject of its specialization.
The forecast development process includes three blocks: analytical, conceptual and forecast.
When developing the concept of regional social development, two main stages can be distinguished:
1.formation of goals and their specification in the form of specific tasks aimed at solving relevant problems;
2. identifying priorities for goals and objectives of economic and social development and developing a strategy on this basis regional development.
The main task within the framework of the forecast block is to determine the quantitative parameters and indicators of the regional development of the social system in the future. In this case, three types of forecasts are used: general economic forecasts for the development of the system as a whole; forecasts for the development of individual industries; forecasts for the development of individual administrative-territorial units of the region (cities, districts, etc.).
The main method for developing these forecasts is to draw up a long-term development scenario. These scenarios describe the likely situations of the future development of the regional social system and its structures, its relationship with other systems, and determine the optimal indicators of regional development based on various factors and conditions.
The scenario method involves establishing indicators for the future development of critically important indicators of the external environment. For example, for the development of the social sphere it is necessary to include several options for alternative indicators of the future. Regional authorities arrange so that the population of the region increases over the year by at least 1.5% or 3%. If, in the process of constructing a scenario, it is revealed that the environmental situation in the region will deteriorate, the situation will deteriorate, then for a more accurate and reliable forecast it is necessary to adjust the number (3%) downward, for example, reduce it to 2%.
3.2 Forecast calculations of social development indicators
The most important socio-economic category that determines the people's well-being is the standard of living. The standard of living is the degree to which the population is provided with material and spiritual benefits based on the existing needs and level of economic development of the country.
According to the UN recommendation, the standard of living is measured by a system of indicators characterizing health, consumption levels, employment, education, housing, and social security. In recent years, in world practice, the Human Development Index (HDI) has been used to assess the level and quality of life. It includes: GDP per capita, life expectancy, average number of years of education of the population. Let's give an example of calculating the HDI.
1) life expectancy of at least 25 years; maximum 85 years; Russian Federation 67.6 years.
2) real GDP per capita ($) minimum $100; maximum $5448; in the Russian Federation $5184.
1. Calculate the life expectancy index (LEI)
Iopzh = (Xsr – Xmin)/(Xmax – X min)
where Хср is the average life expectancy,
X min – average minimum life expectancy,
Xmax – average maximum life expectancy.
The last two indicators in the calculations take 25 and 85 years, respectively.
Iopzh = (67.6 – 25)/(85 – 25) = 0.71 or 71 years
2. Find the GDP index:
Ivvp = (5184 – 100)/(5448 – 100) = 0.95
3. Let’s calculate the HDI index:
I irchp = (Iopzh + Ivvp + Iobr)/3
where Iobr is the population education index
I HDI= (0.71+ 0.95+0.888)/3 = 0.85
Answer: The HDI index is 0.85
The main task of forecasting in the field of social development is, first of all, to determine for the long-term period the needs of the population and the possibilities of meeting them in food, industrial goods, household services, housing, education, health services, culture, and art.
In the very general view the sequence of drawing up forecasts of social development and living standards of the population can be presented as follows.
1. The hypothesis of the formation of an increase in living standards is determined in general terms by three components: GDP growth, growth of social needs, growth of resources for future consumption.
The forecast of growth rates of resources for consumption is based on projected calculations of economic growth, increased production efficiency, increased investment, etc.
2. Analysis of the achieved standard of living includes a set of indicators that ensure mutual coordination and logical sequence in the development of forecasts.
The main ones among these indicators are the following:
1. socio-demographic indicators
2. working conditions
3. generalizing cost indicators of nominal and real incomes of the population
4. health status and its changes in the population as a whole and individual social groups;
5. indicators of population consumption of basic food products and non-food products;
6. generalizing indicators of the service sector (expenditures of the population to pay for services, price index (tariffs) for certain types of paid services of the population;
7. living conditions and public services (average provision of housing, provision of basic types of public services, etc.);
8. education indicators (level of education of the population, number of students in schools, number of students at universities and secondary vocational schools educational institutions, including per 10 thousand population, etc.);
9. cultural indicators (number of libraries, theaters, museums, clubs, their attendance, circulation of books, magazines, newspapers);
10. state of the environment;
11. savings of the population.
The system of forecasts for social development and living standards follows from the set of indicators discussed above. This means that the change in each indicator must be predicted in order to obtain a fairly complete and objective picture of the dynamics of social development and living standards in the forecast period. For example, forecasts are being developed for the dynamics of real incomes of the population, changes in the retail price index, development housing construction etc.
The most important general indicator of living standards is the income of the population. The main components of cash income of the population are wages, income from business activities and property (profit, dividends, interest, rent), social payments (pensions, benefits, scholarships, etc.).
An important role in forecasting the standard of living of the population is played by: the subsistence budget; minimum consumer budget; high income budget.
The subsistence level budget has been used in the Russian Federation since 1992. It represents the valuation of the consumer basket, as well as mandatory payments and fees. The consumer basket is minimum set food products, non-food products and services necessary to maintain human health and ensure his life.
The minimum consumer budget is the social minimum of funds necessary to ensure normal human life.
The most important indicator of living standards is the purchasing power of the population. It shows how many conditional sets of living wages the population can purchase with their average cash income.
Taking into account the size of consumer budgets in the Russian Federation, the entire population according to income and consumption levels can be divided into the following groups.
First group– poor segments of the population whose monthly per capita income is below the cost estimate of the subsistence level budget. The living wage in Russia today averages 5,187 rubles.
Second group– low-income segments of the population, whose monthly per capita income is in the interval between the cost estimate of the subsistence level budget and the cost estimate of the minimum consumer budget.
Third group– moderately or relatively wealthy segments of the population, whose monthly per capita income is in the interval between the value estimate of the minimum consumer budget and the value estimate of the high-income budget.
Fourth group– wealthy and wealthy people whose monthly per capita income exceeds the high-income budget.
Forecast estimates for improving the standard of living of the population of the Russian Federation, as a rule, are linked to achieving macroeconomic stabilization and ensuring sustainable economic growth.
Conclusion
Forecasting is one of the most important stages of project activity. Humanity, having forecasts, consciously seeks and finds ways to exit. First - hunting and gathering, then - the transition to agriculture and cattle breeding, from nomadic to sedentary lifestyle life, from villages to urban settlements; development of the resources of the World Ocean, etc. Forecasting in a broad sense is the prediction of any information received about the future. In a narrow sense, it is a special scientific study, the subject of which is the prospects for the development of phenomena.
One of the most important types of forecasting is social forecasting - this is the anticipation of trends and prospects for the possible development of social systems, objects, social phenomena, processes. The object of social forecasting can be all social systems, all phenomena occurring in society.
Forecasting is integral part process of developing a social project. Separated from design, forecasting loses its practical meaning. Social forecasting allows one to take into account various options for the movement and development of social systems. Developing correct forecasts makes it possible to make management more perfect and design more effective.
Social forecasting methods are a set of techniques and ways of thinking that allow, based on the analysis of retrospective data, exogenous (external) and endogenous (internal) connections of the forecast object, as well as their measurements within the framework of the phenomenon or process under consideration, to derive judgments of a certain reliability regarding it (the object) future development.
Intuitive forecasting methods are used in cases where it is impossible to take into account the influence of many factors due to the insignificant complexity of the forecast object. In this case, expert assessments are used. At the same time, a distinction is made between individual and collective expert assessments.
The group of formalized methods includes subgroups: extrapolation and modeling. The first subgroup includes methods: least squares, exponential smoothing, moving averages. The second includes structural, network and matrix modeling.
List of used literature
1. Arzhenovsky S.V. Methods of socio-economic forecasting: Tutorial. – M.: Publishing house “Dashkov and Co.”; Rostov n/d, 2008
2. Safronova V.M. Forecasting and modeling in social work: Textbook. aid for students higher textbook establishments. – M.: Publishing Center “Academy”, 2002
3. Bestuzhev-Lada I.V. Social forecasting. Course of lectures. – M.: Pedagogical Society of Russia 2002
4. Safronova V.M. Forecasting and modeling in social work: Textbook. aid for students higher textbook establishments. – M.: Publishing Center “Academy”, 2002
Methods of social forecasting.
Types of social forecasts
Social Forecasting Methods
Concept and types of social forecasting
Topic 2. Sociological monitoring of security
Social Forecasting- this is a special study about the likely prospects for the development of a social object. Moreover, the object can be a social phenomenon, a process, a social layer, and the social state of an individual.
The purpose of social forecasting is the preparation of scientifically based proposals on the directions in which the development of a social object is desirable. In the course of scientific forecasting, two main tasks are solved:
The goal of the probable development of the object is determined and motivated;
The means and ways to achieve this goal are determined.
Types of social forecasting: socio-economic, legal, socio-political, socio-cultural, sociological, etc.
Social Forecasting Features:
1. orienting involves optimizing the choice of socially significant goals and means of achieving them
2. normative means identifying the most important trends in social development,
3. precautionary involves identifying and describing possible negative consequences in probable development trends.
General scientific: analysis, synthesis, extrapolation, dissemination of conclusions regarding one part of a phenomenon to another part, to the phenomenon as a whole for the future, interpolation - restoration of the value of a function at an intermediate point based on its known values at neighboring points, induction, deduction, analogy, hypothesis, experimentation and modeling - transfer research activities to another object, acting as a substitute for the object being studied.
Interscientific, focused on collective opinion, the opinion of the majority of experts :
1. brainstorming method represents a collective expert assessment of a predicted event. It involves a joint discussion of the problem by specialists from different research areas and scientific schools and is aimed at bringing together expert positions.
2. Delphi method distinguished by the anonymity of the work of experts and the written form of assessments.
To private scientific methods social forecasting usually includes expert surveys, testing, etc.
I. Forecasts differ based on the target criterion:
1. Search forecast, the content of which is to determine the possible states of the forecast object in the future. This forecast answers the question: what is most likely to happen if current trends continue?
2. Normative forecast, the content of which is to determine the ways and conditions for achieving possible states (accepted as given) of the forecast object in the future. This forecast answers the question: what ways to achieve the desired result?
3. Comprehensive forecast, containing elements of search and normative forecasts.
II. By lead time differentiate the following types forecasts:
Operational forecast with a lead time of up to 1 month;
Short-term forecast with a lead period from 1 month to 1 year;
Medium-term forecast with a lead period from 1 year to 5 years;
Long-term forecast with a lead period from 5 years to 15 years;
Long-term forecast with a lead period of more than 15 years.
III. By scale of forecasting highlight:
World forecasts;
State forecasts;
Structural (intersectoral and interregional) forecasts;
Forecasts for the development of individual complexes of industry, economy, culture;
Industry forecasts;
Regional forecasts;
IV. By object of study differ:
-natural history forecasts(meteorological, hydrological, geological, biological, cosmological
-scientific and technical forecasts, which cover the prospects for the development of scientific and technological progress;
-social forecasts, which cover various spheres of human activity and relationships between them.
Concept of the future. Methods of social forecasting.
Future 1. One of the key functions of philosophy is the predictive function, the meaning and purpose of which is to make reasonable predictions about the future.
2. Throughout history, the question of whether any reliable forecasting or vision of the future is possible in philosophy has been actively debated.
Modern philosophy The answer to this question is an affirmative: perhaps. In justifying the possibility of predicting the future, the following aspects are highlighted: ontological; epistemological; Logical; neurophysiological; Social.
Ontological The aspect is that foresight is possible from the very essence of existence - its objective laws, cause-and-effect relationships. Based on dialectics, the mechanism of development remains unchanged before each qualitative leap, and therefore it is possible to “trace” the future.
Epistemological aspect is based on the fact that since the possibilities of knowledge are limitless (according to the domestic philosophical tradition), and forecasting is also a type of knowledge, then forecasting itself is possible.
Logical aspect- on the fact that the laws of logic always remain unchanged, both in the present and in the future. Neurophysiological aspect is based on the capabilities of consciousness and the brain to proactively reflect reality.
Social aspect lies in the fact that humanity strives, based on its own experience of development, to model the future.
3. In modern Western science, a special discipline stands out - futurology. Its creator is considered to be the German scientist Flechtheim (40s of the XX century), who proposed the term. World-famous modern scientists and philosophers who deal with the problems of predicting the future include G. Parsons, E. Hanke, I. Bestuzhev-Lada, G. Shakhnazarov and others.
4. A special kind forecasting is social forecasting, which deals with foreseeing processes occurring in society.
Among them are processes in the field of: industrial relations; science and technology; education; healthcare; literature, construction; space exploration; international relations. This direction is called prognostics and differs from futurology in being more specific (studies social processes, their future, not the future in general).
Social Forecasting Methods
Based on three ways to obtain information about the future. Firstly, this extrapolation(-logical and methodological procedure for disseminating (transferring) conclusions made regarding a part of objects or phenomena to the entire set (set) of these objects or phenomena, as well as to any other part of them) into the future of observed trends, patterns, developments of which in the past and are quite well known today. Secondly, this grade possible or desirable future state of a phenomenon. Thirdly, this modeling predicted phenomena. All three methods are distinguished conditionally, because they form an organic. unity: any extrapolation, logical. or statistical, is, in fact, a predictive assessment and a type of predictive model. Any predictive assessment is, first of all, extrapolation in one or another model representation; any predictive model includes extrapolation and assessment. All forecasting methods are essentially different. combinations of elements of the above methods of obtaining information about the future. Several methods are general scientific, FOR EXAMPLE, forecasting by analogy. Predictive assessments of deductive or inductive, etc. Practically in the arsenal of M.S.P. all methods included sociology, research - study of documentary sources and literature, observation, polls population and experts, experiment staged and post-facto experiment, schematic modeling. and mathematical. Many methods are inter- or interscientific, used in a number of scientific fields. disciplines, e.g. regression or factor methods analysis, full-time and correspondence collective and individual surveys of experts, simple and formalized forecast scenarios, etc. Some methods are private scientific, i.e., they relate only to certain people. one scientific discipline - eg. population surveys in sociology, projective tests in psychology, etc. According to the accepted classification of forecasting methods (covering methods of scientific, technical and socio-economic forecasting, without taking into account the specifics of agro-, hydrometeorological and a number of other natural science forecasts), all methods according to the degree of formalization are divided into intuitive (expert) and formalized (factual).
1. Expert assessment.
2. Extrapolation.
3. Modeling.
4. Analogies.
5. Drawing up scenarios.
6. Complex techniques.
It is easy to see that essentially forecasts are based on intuition specialist scientist analogies with already known phenomena and processes and, finally, on a straight line extrapolations of one kind or another of processes into the future. It is clear that in the field of complex phenomena, when we're talking about about specific forecast estimates, all this gives only a relatively limited effect.
In this case, a scientist’s intuition does not mean a mysterious area of the subconscious, but a feeling, a guess based on accumulated observations, on a person’s life experience, which allow him to judge in general terms the prospects of a phenomenon well known to him. Thus, an experienced architect, looking at the design of a building under construction, will intuitively feel the main positive and negative aspects of the consequences of the implementation of this project. An experienced economist, having become familiar with the peculiarities of the organization of labor in an institution or enterprise, is able to immediately give a general assessment of the prospects for the work of this institution or enterprise.
An analogy with phenomena and processes that have already taken place in reality helps to make such forecasts more detailed and accurate, and to include more clearly defined alternative options. So, for example, an engineer can remember from past experience what price he has to pay for the technical lack of culture of other business executives. On the contrary, turning, for example, to the positive experience of cleaning industrial gases will make it possible to clarify the forecast by referring to the conditions under which undesirable consequences can be avoided.
Finally, extrapolation is essentially the basis of any forecast. When predicting, we always mentally continue something into the future. The simplest example: in 1900, 1500 million people lived on Earth, in 1950 - 2500 million, in 1960 - almost 3000 million. Every year the Earth's population increases by 70 million people (by two percent of the total existing population). At this rate of growth, the number of people on Earth will double approximately every 35 years. Continuing mentally this line of development into the future, and by the year 2000 you will receive 6-7 billion, and by the 30s of the 21st century. - 12-14 billion, etc.
These are all tried and tested methods. They have successfully “worked” in the past and will serve people in the future. They cannot be neglected. But only for any detailed long-term forecasts, and even in complex modern conditions, they are clearly not enough. Intuition often fails. Any analogy is very relative and without significant adjustments can lead to erroneous conclusions. As for extrapolation, it can only produce an effect when considering a not particularly complex process, and even then over a relatively short period of time.
Try to continue the process of world population growth into the distant future. You will get a hundred people for every square meter earth's surface, and this hundred will continue to double at an increasing pace. No space settlement projects will change the situation: after all, we are talking about the appearance of new tens and hundreds of billions of people every year. It is clear that such a process simply cannot go on, not just indefinitely, but at all for any length of time. long time. There are apparently significant changes ahead in the very course of the predicted process.
In the same way, the growth in the number of students or, say, scientific workers cannot continue indefinitely at the same pace as now, otherwise they would become the entire adult population of the Earth! The volume of information (everything from books and newspapers to radio and television programs) cannot increase at the same pace. Now this volume doubles every 10-15 years. But a person’s ability to “absorb” information is not limitless! It is quite obvious that there are some serious qualitative shifts ahead, changes in current processes.
Is it possible to foresee such qualitative changes, given the extremely complex nature of social phenomena? Yes, you can. But only if we take into account the need for a stochastic approach to this kind of phenomena, and use the already accumulated extensive experience in predicting natural, biological, and technical processes.
Just 10-15 years ago, the number of special techniques for predicting social phenomena was measured in just a few. Now there are already over a hundred of them just for forecasts in the field of science and technology. The number of special techniques is measured in hundreds. Within the framework of this work, it is impossible to even briefly list all available developments. Moreover, it is impossible to give any detailed description numerous groupings of techniques. Their complexity can be judged by one of the attempts to classify methods of scientific and technical forecasting alone. Therefore, referring the reader to specialized literature, we will limit ourselves to general overview main directions in the field of techniques for forecasting social phenomena. These areas include expert assessment, extrapolation (more precisely, interpolation and extrapolation) and modeling. A special focus is on forecasts based on patent analysis. Let's take a brief look at these areas.
Expert assessment prospects for the development of a particular process by individual specialist experts or collective expert assessment. For such an assessment, a questionnaire is used, i.e., obtaining answers from experts to questions contained in questionnaires about the future states of the predicted objects. Sometimes surveys are conducted large groups experts on a specific program, in several rounds, and then, based on averaging the opinions of experts, the most likely answer to the questions posed is derived. One of the variations of this technique is Delphi method(Delphic Oracle method), which involves the compilation of special questionnaires, a complex procedure for interviewing specialists, and processing of the received data on electronic computers. The Delphi method is based on a sequential individual survey of experts and reducing their opinions to a single one through their averaging. Typically, expert responses are anonymous; answers are obtained from a questionnaire; the exchange of opinions takes place through the person conducting the expert survey. Group opinion is the result of combining the opinions of experts in the last round of the survey.
Of course, forecasts obtained through an expert survey are based not so much on an objective study of the current real situation and objective data on trends in its development, but on the already accumulated knowledge and intuition of specialists, i.e. on the identification of objective scientific truth with the opinion of the majority of surveyed specialists, whose knowledge are themselves limited. In this case, they are trying to obtain a forecast without an in-depth study of the object, based only on collecting the opinions of specialists about the future, on identifying the prevailing (average) assessment. Therefore, like all others, this method has limited opportunities in developing reliable scientific forecasts.
Extrapolation. Suppose that in the first year the N plant produced 100 cars, a year later - 200, a year later - 300, and after 5 years - 500. The question is: how many cars did this plant produce in the fourth year of its existence?
We build a digital series: 100-200-300-?-500. Having looked at it closely, we answer without any complex calculations: most likely 400. Life, as a rule, confirms this kind of conclusion. Why? Because there is a certain pattern in the construction of the series, and if this pattern is identified, then it is not difficult to determine the quantitative value of each intermediate point even in very complex series - to perform interpolation, as this kind of action in mathematics is called.
It would seem, what relation can interpolation have to forecasting?
Remember D. I. Mendeleev’s Periodic Table of Elements. These are also series of numbers - atomic weights of elements, arranged in the strictest regularity according to the charge of the nucleus of their atoms: sodium (22.9) - magnesium (24.3) - aluminum (26.9) - silicon (28.0) - phosphorus (30 ,9), etc. If zinc (65.3) and arsenic (74.9) are known in this series, then two more elements with atomic weights of approximately 68 and 72 should be located between them. Having made this kind of interpolation, D. I. Mendeleev suggested the existence of two, then unknown chemical elements. He named them eka-aluminum and eka-silicon, predicting their chemical properties in general terms. A few years later, gallium (69.7) and germanium (72.6) were indeed discovered, the properties of which corresponded to eka-aluminum and eka-silicon (in total, Mendeleev pointed out four later open element). It was one of the most brilliant predictions in the history of science.
It is clear that this approach can have an effect not only in the natural sciences. Such interdependence (correlation) between various phenomena and processes reveals connections that are more complex than direct cause-and-effect ones. They are called correlative. To predict certain phenomena or processes based on data from other phenomena that are in a correlative relationship with the first, special equations have been developed (the so-called correlation and regressive equations). If there are many such phenomena, multiple regression equations are used, which make it possible to quantify the predicted process using a special combination of initial values. All this greatly increases the effectiveness of the forecast.
But the methods of mathematical statistics are not something like a universal master key for forecasting. They are usually used in conjunction with other methods. As an example of this integrated approach One can name the method of forecasting using envelope curves proposed by an employee of the Hudson Institute (USA) R. Ayres. Briefly it boils down to the following. The most characteristic parameters of the system are determined, the analysis of changes in which makes it possible to predict the course of change of the entire system as a whole. For each parameter, a development curve is constructed over the years in the past and present, which can be extrapolated into the future. Analysis of the system's past can provide good model its future - writes the author of the methodology. By extrapolating the envelope curves from the most typical current values of the system parameters, we automatically take into account the continuity of its improvement. Of course, it is difficult to take into account the effects of rare and extraordinary discoveries, but the sequence and continuity of ordinary improvements will be taken into account to a fairly good approximation. According to the author of this technique, it makes it possible to reduce the likelihood of deviations caused by shortcomings in modern forecasting technology, makes it possible to foresee the limiting values of predicted parameters in advance, and increases the degree of stability of the forecast.
Modeling. A model in the broad sense of the word is a simplified image (diagram, description) of a phenomenon or process for the convenience of analyzing the latter. Using a mock-up model, for example, of a planned or existing residential area, it is easier to understand its advantages and disadvantages. Using a model diagram or city map, it is easier to develop, for example, a city transport system. If the map is accompanied by a description or mathematical calculations relating to the same urban transport (these are also models), the accuracy and quality of the developments are further increased.
Models are successfully used in many sciences. They can be very different in form: subject (for example, models, they are commonly called models), physical (what is usually called an operating model), logical (description of an object), mathematical (description of it using a system of equations), etc. . If we talk about social phenomena, then it is especially convenient to model them logically (for example, through an analogy with a similar, but simpler to analyze phenomenon, or a diagram-scenario that simplifies the main points of the process) or mathematically (for example, in the form of quantitative characteristics of the process, in form of a system of equations that reproduce the functioning of certain phenomena). Most complex species models are built on such a vast and complex array of information that they can, as a rule, only be operated with the help of electronic computer technology.
Modeling has long been successfully used in economics and sociology. There are no reasons that would prevent its equally successful use in social forecasting. True, in the latter case we are talking about a special type of social models - about predictive models, i.e. about modeling not existing, but expected, upcoming phenomena and processes. Predictive models have their own specifics, and their development is characterized by significant additional difficulties. But in principle, this is nothing more than a variety of social models that are built, in general, using the same techniques and are capable of producing a fairly high effect in scientific research.
Generally speaking, a model is an organic component of any forecast. We begin any forecast by mentally transferring (continuing) some phenomenon into the future, and we end by reproducing this phenomenon in the future, if necessary, in a more or less simplified form - in the form of a model, since in reality there is still such a phenomenon does not exist. In other words, any forecast essentially always begins with extrapolation (in the broad sense of the word) and ends with a predictive model. But in this case we are not talking about predictive models in general, but about modeling as one of the main directions of social forecasting techniques. Typically, the full predictive modeling process includes:
1. Setting the task and determining the lead time of the model (so many years in advance).
2. Establishment of the initial data necessary for developing the model (construction of the initial model).
3. The main operation is the calculation of changes in these data by the time of anticipation according to the observed and expected trends in their development (usually using the techniques of interviewing experts and (or) extrapolation).
4. Determining the minimum and maximum, as well as the most likely or desirable levels of change and establishing the main options for the model in accordance with this.
5. It is possible to describe one, several or all options in more detail using a system of equations or any other method.
6. Clarification of the completed development by involving additional data in order to correct possible errors.
7. Development of the so-called predictive scenario of the model, i.e., determination of the features of its functioning in certain (specially specified) lead time conditions. In other words, turning a static model (or a series of models) into an operating system.
8. Manipulation (“game”) of elements of this kind of operating functional model by simulating its functioning (on a computer or manually) with certain combinations of elements in accordance with expected changes in the situation. Often this stage of work is called modeling in the narrow sense of the term.
9. Prediction based on the received data of certain changes in the predicted object. This is a model-based forecast - the end product of predictive modeling.
10. Determination of the degree of reliability of the forecast, its adjustment and corresponding recommendations for planning, programming, design, management in order to improve their scientific level. This, in fact, is the practical effect of all the operations performed.
The last stage deserves special attention, since predictive modeling of complex social phenomena is labor-intensive and expensive. According to American experts, building a full-scale model of socio-economic or military-political processes within a country (that is, developing several hundred complex equations) requires an average of 2 to 6 years.
Any model characterizes a real object only approximately; the degree of this approximation depends on the type of model used, on the methodology and technology of modeling tools. In their form, models of social systems can act as verbal descriptions in terms of the humanities, like graphs, diagrams, mathematical and cybernetic systems.
Models of social systems can be divided into the following main types: statistical models, i.e. reflecting the state of social systems at a certain point in time; simple dynamic models that reflect not only the structure, but also the process of functioning of social systems; complex dynamic models that reflect not only the structure and process of functioning, but also the process of development of social systems, i.e. the process of their qualitative change. Thus, the model can reflect the objective structure of the social system, as well as the patterns of its functioning and development.
It should be noted that modeling is closely related to experiment. The specificity of a model experiment in comparison with a conventional experiment is that an intermediate link, a model, is included in the process of cognition of an object, acting, on the one hand, as a means, and on the other, as an object of experimental research, replacing a “replacement” object of research. Thanks to this, the possibilities of experimental research are significantly expanded, since many objects can be reproduced and studied using models.
Analogies. A very common method in social forecasting is the method of analogy, i.e., comparing the predicted process with something similar to those social processes that took place in the past. The analogy method, like the extrapolation method, may not take into account the possibility of transition to another stage of qualitative changes occurring in the system.
Drawing up scenarios. One of the methods of social forecasting is the method of creating scenarios. Scenarios are a descriptive reproduction of an expected future picture of the world as a whole or various areas of social life in a particular country or area of activity. Scenario preparation usually includes a description of the logical sequence of events and processes in order to determine development alternatives, prospects and possible options for changing social systems. Thus, the scenario focuses attention on those cause-and-effect relationships that the forecaster considers most important.
When developing a scenario, various goals can be set, in particular, assessing the social situation, identifying possible options and directions for its development, identifying some probable contingencies and consequences of making certain decisions, as well as different methods of action in different social situations. Thus, the scenario is intended to help find answers to questions about how a social situation can develop and what opportunities should be taken advantage of at certain stages of its development in order to accelerate the onset of some events and prevent others.
Complex techniques. Naturally, we were able to mention only those methods of social forecasting that seem to be the most general and indicative. Besides them, there are dozens of others, each of which can be effectively used for the same purposes. For example, approaches have been proposed that use the “black box” principle (analysis of the relationship between the elements of “input” and “output” of a functioning system), the principle of “decision matrices” (system tables characterizing the state various phenomena and processes), the principle of taking into account “accompanying events” (prediction of one process based on the results of another, already observed), the principle of “trial and error” (successive approximation from a priori plausible proposals to an accurate forecast) and many others.
We do not consider them not only because this would lead away from the topic of this section, but also because modern specific forecasting techniques are, as a rule, complex in nature, covering a significant part of the listed (and not listed) approaches and reflecting in one way or another at least all the main directions of the techniques mentioned above.
The complex nature of the methods is confirmed, for example, by the fact that expert assessment in the forecast is organically combined with extrapolation and modeling; the development of a forecast model usually includes expert assessments and extrapolation, etc. The rapid development of forecasting, which began several years ago, is precisely due to effective use the whole range of methods. It turned out that if you combine various forecasting methods in such a way that they reinforce each other, giving a cumulation effect, you can achieve a significant increase in the accuracy, range and reliability of the forecast.
In the most general terms a fundamental model of this kind of complex methodology looks like this:
1. Theoretical concept forecast and a description of the initial situation based on it (mainly by questionnaire techniques with the eventual compilation of the initial model of the predicted sawing or process).
2. Identification and modeling of leading development trends (mainly by extrapolation techniques).
3. Drawing up variants of a predictive model tied to a specific time.
4. Survey of experts to clarify the developed models (questionnaire again).
5. Identifying specific discrepancies between model options.
6. Formulation of problems, the solution of which is necessary to bring the most probable and desirable (optimal) model as close as possible.
7. Another survey of experts to clarify the proposed model.
9. Drawing up post-probabilistic predictive models (modeling the likely consequences of the implementation of recommended plans, programs, projects, decisions).
10. Interview experts again to assess the forecast as a whole. Identification of errors, shortcomings, contradictions, undesirable consequences, proposed recommendations, etc.
11. Critical revision of the forecast in accordance with comments received and experience gained.
12. Again, describing the situation, identifying new trends, and so on endlessly, i.e., entering a new forecast cycle, because the forecasting process can and should be endless, continuous, only this allows predictive research to be carried out systematically and makes it possible to constantly improve it scientific level and therefore efficiency.
But this is, so to speak, an ideal model, fully implemented in practice. As for practically applied methods of this kind, as an example we can refer to the PATTERN system (in initial letters: Planning Assistance Though Technical Evaluation of Relevance Numbers - justification for planning through a quantitative assessment of scientific and technical developments), proposed by specialists from the American company Honeywell . Briefly it boils down to the following:
· expert assessment of factors influencing the development of the predicted object, identifying the main development trends through extrapolation; preliminary models of development prospects;
· development of a hierarchy of goals, problems and subproblems, the solution of which is necessary to achieve them (the so-called “tree of goals”);
· development of a working model (scenario) of possible development, taking into account the data from the “tree of goals”;
· expert assessment of the relative significance of the predicted phenomena, indicating the possible time frame for their implementation (according to a specially developed scale of significance coefficients);
· identifying ways to solve problems, sub-problems and sub-sub-sub-problems of the “tree of goals” with an assessment of the degree of their complexity on a special scale of coefficients;
· analysis of the “mutual utility” of solving various problems and assessment on a scale of “utility coefficients” that determine the degree of applicability of solving problems of a certain type to similar or related problems;
· final, general assessment, summary forecast and recommendations for the development of plans, projects, decisions.
The general logic of forecasting using the PATTERN system looks something like this. Based on the scenario, areas of interest are determined - political interests, scientific research, development work. In accordance with the established goals, the necessary activities are developed for each area and the levels of tasks to be solved are outlined:
a) determining the purpose of the forecast;
b) assessment possible timing implementation of the intended prospect;
c) comparison of the scientific and technical level today and at the date of anticipation in the forecast;
d) the same comparison with other countries of the world;
e) determining the expected impact of some areas of scientific and technological progress on others;
f) assessment of possible social consequences;
g) determination of the necessary conditions for the implementation of predicted prospects (new forms of economic relations and structures, incentive methods, etc.).
h) stage of implementation of forecasts; At the same stage, forecasting methods and the results obtained undergo the first check, and the thoroughness of the justification of all key positions of the forecast is checked.
The stage of implementation of forecasts crucially ensures the possibility of using forecast data in planning and policy decisions. It is at this stage that scientific and technical forecasts practically “dovetail” with a broad system of socio-economic forecasting.