Unusually cold June. Winter will warm. Cold temperature anomalies
The summer of 2017 has just begun, but many are already predicting that it is unlikely that it will be possible to take a break from the rains. What is happening with the Moscow climate, whether it is worth waiting for warming at least in September and whether the weather will please this weekend, we learned from climatologist Andrei Kiselev and leading specialist of the FOBOS weather center Alexander Sinenkov.
RIA Novosti / Kirill Kallinikov
The long-awaited summer of 2017 does not please residents and guests of the Moscow region. Walks around the city and trips to nature are becoming a real rarity, and it is almost impossible to leave the house without an umbrella. And the June snow is anomalous warm March and 30-degree heat in early May came as a complete surprise. At the same time, the weather began to change even earlier - in autumn, when average temperature in November approached the December values.
Climatologist Andrey Kiselev helped to figure out what is happening with the summer and whether it is worth waiting for the 360 TV channel at all.
- What happened to the summer? Why have there been such drastic changes in weather conditions?
The situation when one year is not like another is rather ordinary. Therefore, to say that this is something out of the ordinary, in general, is impossible. The climate is estimated over a 30-year period and during these years there may be different seasons: dry and rainy, cold and warm. Air comes to us from the Atlantic, we have a flat territory. So there is no resistance because there are no mountains. These air masses come from the Atlantic and from time to time begin to compete with air that does not come from the Arctic and then appears cold weather. Apparently, this is the situation right now.
The summer of 2017 has so far taken place only for 1/6 of its time. Therefore, it is still incorrect to characterize the whole summer. What will happen next - no one can predict if we are talking about the summer, not the next five or six days. It is anomalous because we are simply not used to it - purely psychologically. In terms of statistical parameters, it can be quite ordinary.
- And if we talk about the 30-year period, can it be called ordinary?
The fact is that the climate is now compared with the 1960-1990s. When it passes, we will move 30 years from 1991 to 2020. The point is that if single year falls out, then it will affect the 30-year interval, if there are quite a lot of such falling years. If there are 1-2 of them, then they, in a sense, are neutralized by other years, which will turn out to be quite warm or just average. Therefore, this “anomalous phenomenon” may turn out to be just a whim of nature.
They say that if the summer is cold, then this means that the cycle has shifted a little and the heat will come, but later. Is this really true or fiction?
Can't be confirmed. The stability of temperature for a particular territory suggests that if there was a certain excess, then there is a possibility that in the next months they can somehow compensate for this. But sometimes this may not be the case - remember the summer of 2010, when the weather was very hot.
The summer of 2017 nevertheless decided to rehabilitate itself and reward the residents of the Moscow region for the past rainy week - the sun will finally appear at the weekend. On the next week expected warm, but again rainy weather- said the leading specialist of the weather center "Phobos" Alexander Sinenkov.
According to him, on the first day of the weekend in the metropolitan metropolis it will get a little warmer, but the average daily air temperature will still be below the climatic norm due to the convective instability of the atmosphere. In the first and second half of the day there will be intermittent rains locally.
“We expect partly cloudy weather in the Moscow region, intermittent rain in some places in the afternoon, temperature on Saturday night: +9…+11 degrees, in the region - +8…+13. +18…+20 degrees are expected in Moscow during the day, +17…+22 in the region. Northwest wind, Atmosphere pressure unchanged - 742 millimeters of mercury, ”said Sinenkov.
On Sunday, atmospheric pressure will increase, the weather in Moscow will be affected by an anticyclone from the west. Average daily temperature will correspond to the norm: in the capital it will get warmer up to +22…+24, in the Moscow region - up to +20…+25 degrees. The chance of intermittent rain will continue.
On the next working week we do not expect significant changes. The nature of the weather will continue to be determined by humid climatic air masses that will come from the west and northwest. This means that residents of the Moscow region and guests of the capital will expect mostly cloudy weather with explanations. It will rain from time to time, and the temperature during the daytime will be within +18…+23 degrees. At night, the thermometer will approach the mark of +10 degrees
Alexander Sinenkov.
In the next 10 years, the climate is likely to be undulating, with frequent shifts higher and more low temperatures. About it " Russian newspaper" said the head of the Hydrometeorological Center Roman Vilfand, answering the question: "What is happening with the weather in Central Russia, and will we have summer this year?"
"AT climatic characteristics now volatility prevails, explains Vilfand. - Climatologists attribute this to global warming. First of all, get warm high latitudes and the temperature difference between the equator and the poles decreases. It seems that if there is global warming, then the air temperature everywhere should rise. But in fact, this leads to other processes - namely, to undulating changes.
As the chief weather forecaster of the country explains, if for our latitudes the west-east transfer was always familiar air masses, now such air circulation has been established that cold air is blowing towards us more often arctic winds. And this situation, unfortunately, may be repeated over the next 10 years.
"Normal average temperatures will be less, but the alternation of rainy and dry periods will increase," explains Vilfand. It is also possible that anomalous warm winters and frosts in summer.
As for the nearest summer prospects for residents of Central Russia, then, according to the head of the Hydrometeorological Center, July still promises to please Muscovites and residents of the central regions warm weather, which will be several degrees higher than the norm. And even complete bathing season will be able to open. True, while the water temperature in Moscow and Moscow region reservoirs does not exceed 14 degrees. Such water will be enjoyed only by very hardened people.
The next week, as Lyudmila Parshina, head of the laboratory of the Hydrometeorological Center, told RG, moderately warm weather is expected in the capital region. Daytime temperatures will fluctuate within 22-24 degrees, night -10-12 degrees. Rains are possible.
As for other Russian regions, the temperature background is different everywhere - up to 40-degree heat, as in Novosibirsk, Tomsk, Kemerovo regions and in the Altai Territory, to night frosts, as in the Murmansk region.
The alternation of rains and droughts will become more frequent. Abnormally warm winters and frosts in summer possible
In the south of Russia, in the Stavropol Territory and in most republics North Caucasus, in Chechnya, Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkaria wind increase up to 20 meters per second, daily temperatures will not exceed 26 degrees. Eastern Ciscaucasia will be in warmer air - there will be up to 28 degrees during the day. On the Black Sea coast- 20-25 degrees. At the beginning of the week the weather will improve. It will warm up to 28 degrees on the Black Sea coast, up to 30 degrees in the Sochi region. The Black Sea warmed up to 22-23 degrees.
On Tuesday, January 31, the Governor of the Moscow Region Andrey Vorobyov delivered his annual address to the residents of the region. RIAMO has collected 15 of Vorobyov's most important statements. Further direct speech.
We need our breakthrough. In what? The Moscow region should enter the top five (regions of the Russian Federation - ed.) in all key areas of human life. Safety and health, education and ecology, roads and quality of housing and communal services, efficient public administration and favorable investment climate.
In three years of work, we were able to close 20 solid waste landfills. A federal program has been adopted under which we will continue to close these dangerous landfills. We will open new, safe and build waste processing plants.
Every region and every person wants to live richly. That is why our priority is the economy and investment.
Today the Moscow region is in the top three by gross regional product. 3 trillion rubles. And our neighbor has 13. Despite the fact that only the Moscow Ring Road separates us. In terms of per capita income, we were 17th in the country, and now we are in 15th place.
We will continue to settle the barracks. As part of the execution of the presidential decree, 16,000 people have already received new apartments. Here are some very fresh shots from Shchelkovo and Kotelniki. People moved from stables, barracks.
Most Valuable Result industrial, agricultural, investment policy - this is work close to home. In Kashira and Noginsk, in Lyubertsy and Shatura. In total, there are 250 thousand new jobs in the region.
In four years we have released on the routes of 2.5 thousand new buses - this is exactly half of the Mostransavto fleet - and 96 electric trains. Such renewal of the park in the modern history of the Moscow region has not yet been carried out.
To our healthcare workers We raised salaries twice last year. This year, doctors and medical staff.
By the quality of education we maintain leading positions in the country. The number of "stobalniks" of the Unified State Examination in Russian, history, foreign languages. This is an objective indicator. Our graduates are among the best.
We negotiated with residents about the improvement of parks. At the start, we had 25 of them - and all in an extremely neglected state. Today there are already 82 of them - with lighting, paths, benches, a development plan, and most importantly - with strollers and children's laughter.
During these four years we have become the best in the country in terms of the smallest number of officials per 10,000 population. This figure is 17 people. That is, we have the most optimized management structure at the regional and municipal levels.
Last year we opened six overpasses ( Stupinsky district- two, Khimki, Solnechnogorsk, Dolgoprudny, Chekhov district), 28 roads, including the long-awaited Southern bypass of Podolsk, bypass of the village of Aviatsionny, entrances to Zhukovsky, Ramenki, Yegorievsk and other settlements.
For three years - a decrease(mortality on the roads - ed.) by 30%. In January, we reduce mortality by 15%. Nevertheless, in absolute terms, we are still anti-leaders. I am sure that if we keep up the pace, we can turn the tide.
Today we have 104 multifunctional centers - in every settlement within walking distance, as required by the May presidential decrees. The number of applications has grown in four years from 400,000 to 12 million a year.
Crime rate in the area in 2016 fell by 20%, below the national crime rate. We are implementing a very important "Safe Region" system.
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Why do you need to rejoice at the rains and cold in the summer of 2017, because the most common epithet in relation to June in Moscow was the evil “well, damn summer”, or the dull “when will this disgrace end”?
Meteorologists cannot console and, it seems, are not going to, they call for reconciliation:
The alternation of cold and hot periods will accelerate due to global warming and an uneven increase in temperature on the planet, Roman Vilfand, director of the Russian Hydrometeorological Center, said at a press conference on Wednesday.
"During the period global warming the scope, amplitude, variations, variability will increase, the frequency of very cold and hot periods, dry and rainy periods will increase,” Vilfand said.
He explained that this is due to the fact that the temperature on the planet rises unevenly: in the equatorial territories, warming is less noticeable than at the poles, and as a result, the temperature difference between them decreases.
“This temperature difference between the equator and the pole is the basis for the emergence of circulation in the atmosphere,” Vilfand specified.
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Seriously, in great detail and purely scientifically, the causes of the weather anomaly have already been mentioned here -
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And now, purely worldly - let's look for a damn dozen reasons why: why is it worth rejoicing at the merlehlyundia outside the window and not being discouraged in spite of "all the devils"?
Well, firstly, because we can’t change anything, and the textbook: “if you don’t know how to change, adapt,” no one has canceled and no alternative to this recommendation has yet been found.
And, secondly, having a positive outlook on the world, it is quite possible to find pluses in minuses and the advice "if you got a lemon, make lemonade out of it" is quite right, in this case.
Let's try to make a refreshing lemonade from a sour and bitter lemon from the summer 2017 harvest?
It turned out that I was not the first to ask this question and therefore there is something to build on -
10 pluses of a cold summer 2017 in Moscow
Why should Muscovites enjoy the cold summer of 2017?
This summer, Muscovites most often talk about the weather, because the townspeople have not yet waited for real warmth. Although weather forecasters have promised that there will be heat in Moscow, the temperature is kept below normal. In fact, the cool summer in the metropolis has its advantages. The RIAMO correspondent found 10 bonuses that we will remember with longing during the heat.
1. Eternal green
Lilacs, apple trees and cherries bloomed later than usual in the capital this season, which means they will fade later. How many photo shoots were made among flowering apple trees in Kolomenskoye alone! The weather seemed to “preserve” the flowers so that everyone could enjoy their aroma, take a selfie and find the coveted lilac cinquefoil. 
2. Passengers don't sweat
AT public transport Moscow is cool. No one hugs you on the subway with a sweaty body and waves a fan right in front of your nose. Bare legs do not stick to the seats, and shirts and blouses do not get wet, which cannot but please the girls. In the subway, there are practically no grandmothers dying of stuffiness, fanning themselves with newspapers, and obese men spreading over doors with the inscription: "Do not lean."
3. Save on wardrobe
Cool summer is both a pain and a relief for fashionistas in the capital. Of course, they have not yet had the opportunity to walk out new sundresses and sandals, but all June they could wear a collection of shoes and dresses for the autumn / spring season or not get out of jeans and sneakers at all, saving both money and time for shopping.
Tights and closed shoes - again saving on epilation and pedicure. Any master will tell you that most women resort to a beauty salon in three cases: before a date, vacation, and when the heat comes. Cold June 2017 allowed Muscovites not to spend money on traditional summer procedures yet.
4. Clean curbs
hot summer evenings lovers of "drinking beer" on the street leave whole batteries of beer cans and bottles on the curbs. The same picture is observed in the mornings on benches, playgrounds, at the entrances of residential buildings, not to mention Moscow squares, parks and beaches! Usually, after a hot weekend, garbage is taken out of there by dump trucks. Cool weather makes the city cleaner, because in the rain you can’t sit on a beer bench much.
5. Heaven for white collar workers
Employees of banks and government agencies, where there is a dress code, are the most happy cool summer. Tights, tight pencil skirts, suffocating ties, trousers and jackets are not so offensive to wear at plus 10 as at plus 30. Office plankton now definitely does not envy the bare knees of Muscovites of “free” professions.
6. Fats in disguise
Those who did not have time to lose weight by the summer may not bathe - until it is “fried” to the fullest, extra kilos can be hidden under cardigans, sweatshirts and raincoats. Cool June gives the last chance to get in shape, because the heat will come someday, and Muscovites still have to undress.
7. Less fluff and dust
Thanks to frequent rainfall and wind, it is easy to breathe in Moscow this summer. There is less dust and poplar fluff on the streets, which is nailed to the ground by rain, and the air quality in general is noticeably better. There are also fewer flies and wasps in the city, which usually appear in the summer. So Muscovites can breathe deeply.
8. No summer blues
Sitting in the office when it is pouring rain outside the window is not at all as offensive as it is in the heat. When it is summer with warm evenings and crowds of people walking, it is simply unbearable to work all day long. Here you willy-nilly begin to envy the downshifters with black envy. While it's cold outside, you can save your vacation until better times.
9. Plaids and mulled wine
This summer, Muscovites flock to the summer verandas not to freshen up, but to warm up. The capital's cafes and restaurants offer the usual autumn bonuses - cozy blankets, warming drinks and gas lamps. Wrapped up in a blanket and taking a sip of mulled wine, you can dream of a hot summer in Moscow.
10. Remember Summer 2010
While some complain about the cold, others recall the abnormal heat in Moscow in the summer of 2010. For several weeks, the air temperature in the capital went off scale and broke records, and smog hung over the city from forest fires. Better rain and wind than burning and sweltering heat. 
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I would add a couple of more significant, in my opinion -
11. Exams and session
Applicants and students do not have to make titanic efforts to prepare for exams, instead of sunbathing, swimming, rollerblading in parks and squares, or loafing in summer cottages. Gnawing on the granite of science, when it’s raining outside the window, it’s psychologically more comfortable than an example ...
12. Museums, theaters and exhibitions
Visiting theaters-museums-exhibitions - instead of beaches and picnics with their invariable "barbecue for cognac" - "a feast of the spirit", instead of a "feast of the flesh", to which rainy and windy summer inclines simply imperatively.
13. Self-improvement and fostering optimism
Honing the ability to find pluses in minuses, "to make lemonade from the lemon you got," and from the "planted pig - bacon" - this is the main advantage of the first month of summer that did not live up to expectations ...
The desired devil's dozen has accumulated, as you can see ... Who is more?
Employees of the Laboratory of Hydrometeorology of the Arctic of the Hydrometeorological Center of the Russian Federation, together with foreign colleagues, studied the processes of area reduction sea ice Arctic Ocean and predicted their climatic consequences. Weather anomalies, in particular cold and rainy summer 2017 on the European territory of Russia, most likely, are the result of a decrease in the area of the ice cover of the Arctic Ocean. Research supported grant Russian scientific fund(RNF). Work results published in Environmental Research Letters.
The processes of melting ice in the Arctic today have accelerated significantly. Behind last decade sea ice area (estimated at the end summer period) decreased by about 40%. disappearance arctic ice fraught with serious environmental impact, in particular the extinction rare species animals. On the other hand, the release of the waters of the Arctic Ocean from under the ice opens up new opportunities in the development of minerals on the Arctic shelves, expands the zone of industrial fishing, and improves conditions for navigation.
Employees of the Hydrometeorological Center of the Russian Federation, together with colleagues, studied the processes of ice melting in the Atlantic part of the Arctic Ocean and described the consequences of these processes for the entire Arctic region. As a result of the work, a complete picture of hydrometeorological changes in the Arctic was obtained.
Warm ocean currents bring warm waters from Atlantic Ocean to the Arctic Basin and the Barents Sea, providing accelerated ice melting. Ice-free water areas effectively absorb solar energy and quickly warm up, releasing excess heat and moisture into the atmosphere. Then air currents and major storms redistribute heat and moisture across almost the entire Arctic, resulting in changes energy balance between ocean and atmosphere. In particular, scientists have found that downstream long-wavelength radiation (NDI) increases significantly. This is infrared (thermal) radiation emitted primarily by water vapor and clouds and directed towards earth's surface. Rising NDI contributes to the warming and melting of Arctic sea ice.
Russian scientists drew attention to the significant impact of large storms and the atmospheric circulation regime on the state of the ice cover. For example, Storm Frank, which occurred in December 2015, brought anomalously high temperature(deviation from the mean climate temperature was 16°C), and the flux of NDI increased by 60 W/sq. m (compared to climatic norm). As a result, the decrease in ice thickness in some regions of the Arctic Ocean has reached 10 cm.
Scientists obtained data on the area of sea ice from satellites, and the fields of distributions of temperature, pressure, humidity and radiation from the so-called reanalysis product (ERA-Interim). Reanalysis is a computer model that assimilates long-term observational data (radiosonde, aviation, etc.) for different characteristics atmosphere.
“The new knowledge obtained as a result of our work allows us to more accurately analyze the causes and consequences of the processes taking place in the Northern Arctic Ocean. If a sufficiently large area of the Arctic turns out to be uncovered by ice, cold and humid air intrusions into European territory Russia. AT recent times This situation is becoming more and more frequent and is causing weather anomalies, such as the atypically cold summer of 2017,” said Vladimir Vladimirovich Ivanov, head of the Arctic Hydrometeorology Laboratory, Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences.
Meteorologists need to develop new algorithms that include information about natural processes taking place in the Arctic. This will make weather forecasts more reliable and take into account current climate changes.
The study was conducted in collaboration with scientists from the University of Alaska at Fairbanks (USA), the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (Russia) and the Institute of Geography Russian Academy Sciences.