family psychology 

Abstract: Methods of social forecasting

COURSE WORK

Subject "Basics social forecasting»

Topic "Methodology of social forecasting"

Introduction

Forecasting - is a method of scientific research that aims to provide possible options those processes and phenomena that are chosen as the subject of analysis.

The forecasting process is quite relevant at the present time. The scope of its application is wide. Forecasting is widely used in economics, namely in management. In management, the concepts of "planning" and "forecasting" are closely intertwined. They are not identical and do not replace each other. Plans and forecasts differ from each other by time limits, the degree of detail of the indicators contained in them, the degree of accuracy and probability of their achievement, targeting, and, finally, legal basis. Forecasts, as a rule, are indicative, and plans have the power of directives. Not substitution and opposition of plan and forecast, but their correct combination - this is the way of systematic regulation of the economy in a market economy and the transition to it.

In industry, forecasting methods also play a paramount role. Using extrapolation and trend, it is possible to draw preliminary conclusions about various processes, phenomena, reactions, operations. There are many forecasting methods. Having differentiated their total number, it is necessary to choose the optimal one for use in each specific situation.

Analysis of forecasting methods, study of these methods, their use in different areas activity is an action of rationalization character. The degree of reliability of forecasts can then be compared with really real indicators, and, having drawn conclusions, proceed to the next forecast with existing data, i.e. existing trend. Based on the data obtained, it is possible to move to a higher level in the time aspect, etc.

Predictive model - a model of the object of forecasting, the study of which allows obtaining information about the possible states of objects in the future and (or) the ways and timing of their implementation.

social forecasting– forecasting of everything social, everything connected with society, public relations where the human being is at the center.

1.1 The concept and essence of the methodology of social forecasting

Forecasting- the science of the system of our thinking about the future, about the ways and methods of studying the future, about finding multivariate alternatives for changing the future, which is of a probabilistic nature.

Prognostics (futurology) is a scientific discipline about the patterns of developing forecasts.

social forecasting is aimed at making changes in the social sphere of a person and society and is one of the manifestations of the purposeful activity of managers in the development and preparation of various options for solving social problems.

Methodology of social forecasting explores the future in ontological, logical and epistemological aspects.

ontological aspect shows how the future is born and formed, characterizes its overall picture, the factors influencing it.

Logical aspect allows you to form a forecast based on dialectical principles, which are based on the general laws of the development of nature and society, as well as methods of scientific thinking.

Gnoseological aspect has as its task to find out how the future is displayed in the human mind, what are the forms of this display, its truth. Being a form of cognition, the forecast from the epistemological side is a reflection of the patterns and possible ways of development of the predicted processes and phenomena.

The knowledge of objective truth in forecasting occurs in the direction from living contemplation to abstract thinking, and from it to practical implementation.

Methodology(concept, doctrine) - a system of principles and methods for organizing and constructing theoretical and practical activities, as well as a doctrine about this system. If theory is the result of a process of cognition, then methodology is a way to achieve this knowledge.

Social forecasting consists of several stages, therefore, specific tasks of cognition are solved at each stage. The stage of pre-forecast orientation is especially important for forecasting methodology, at which the concept of research, the conceptual apparatus is developed, the main methodological principles of analysis and forecasting, methods and techniques are determined, hypotheses are formed, which are to be tested in the course of the study.

1.2 Basic principles and criteria of social forecasting methodology

Under forecast refers to a scientifically based judgment about the possible states of an object in the future, about alternative ways and timing of its implementation. The process of developing forecasts is called forecasting .

object social forecasting can be all social systems, all phenomena occurring in society.

Subject social forecasting are people - individual scientific and practical workers and research organizations.

Subject is to improve the needs of society and meet its needs.

The basis for the formation of forecasts is static information and an information array - a system of scientifically determined parameters and factors that comprehensively characterize the object of forecasting.

There are the following forecast types:

1) By hierarchy of control:

a) forecasts for the development of individual enterprises and their associations

b) forecasts for the development of industries and clusters

c) forecasts for the development of municipalities

d) regional development forecasts

e) country development forecasts

f) forecasts for the development of international cooperation and international structures

g) global forecasts (worldwide)

2) By timing of events:

a) operational (7 days-1 year)

b) short-term (1–3 years)

c) medium-term (4–10 years)

d) long-term (10–20 years)

e) long-term (20–50 years)

f) ultra-long-term (50 years or more)

3) By object and horizon:

a) quantitatively specific (clearly calculated solution options with a set of development indicators)

b) quality

4) By the method of providing forecast information:

a) point (in the form of a single value)

b) interval (a set of values ​​of the predicted value based on interval calculations)

5) Functionally:

a) search

b) normative

There are currently several methodological principles social forecasting, on the basis of which the forecast object is analyzed and the forecast itself is developed.

A principle is a basis from which one must proceed and by which one must be guided in action.

1) The principle of consistency in forecasting. The main concept in this case is the "system" - a whole made up of parts; connection, or a set of elements with relationships and connections between them, forming certain integrity. It should be borne in mind that the essence of the concept of a system is closely related to such categories as: integrity, structure, connection element, relation subsystem, etc.

A characteristic feature of the system is the feature of the set of elements that form the system to resist the environment. And, in addition, the functioning of the system is based on a certain orderliness of its elements, relationships and connections.

The social system is understood as a complex, ordered whole, including individuals and social communities, united by various connections and relationships that are specifically social in nature.

2) The principle of historicism in social foresight, it focuses on the study of specific patterns, the conditions for their development, and requires reinforcement of the foresight of global changes by systematic forecasting of more particular social processes.

In this sense, the forecast refines our understanding of the general development trend, reveals the specific features and characteristics of the future development of phenomena, localizes them in spatio-temporal boundaries, i.e. represents a predictive model for the development of a given phenomenon or process. At the same time, possible changes in the forecast fund are taken into account, i.e. conditions in the future.

3) Using the principle of social determination and development forecasting takes into account the diverse relationships and dependencies in public life(as part of a systematic approach). It is known that the phenomena of material and spiritual world are in an objective regular relationship and interdependence (determinism). And an important provision of this conditionality is causality, i.e. such a connection of phenomena in which one phenomenon (cause) under well-defined conditions necessarily generates, produces another phenomenon (effect). Scenario modeling, scenario thinking is based on this position.

4) Consistency principle implies the harmonization of normative and exploratory approaches and, accordingly, forecasts; forecasts of the possible development of various areas - economic, environmental, demographic and others, different period predictions in the forecast - short-, medium-, long-term, beyond long-term.

5) Principle of verifiability forecasting indicates a mandatory procedure for checking the developed forecasts for accuracy, reliability, reliability, and their validity. For this purpose, there is a whole group of methods, which will be discussed below.

6)The principle of profitability forecasting is closely related to reliability, for only a reliable forecast can be cost-effective. This means that the costs of developing a forecast, and this is a very expensive study, should pay off and not only bring profit, income to the customer when using it, or a positive effect in any other case.

7)Continuity principle forecasting (especially in crisis conditions) requires adjustment of forecasts as new data about the object of forecasting become available. And this is possible with the functioning of permanent forecasting systems in research centers in order to monitor the situation and, accordingly, refine the forecast. Only in this case, you can count on a reliable forecast.

2.1 System of indicators of social forecasting

The system of indicators of social forecasting is usually divided into 2 categories:

1) Qualitative and quantitative

2) Single and group.

Absolute indicators are expressed in absolute value, for example, in pieces (pieces). Relative - in shares, i.e. in percentages (%). Natural are expressed in physical terms, for example, milk yield of cows. value have a monetary form of expression. Comparative ones are based on the method of comparison, and contextual ones are based on choice.

Structural indicators are based on data between the components of the social sphere. Global indicators involve consideration of the social system as a whole, i.e. on a global scale.

2.2 Classification and characteristics of social forecasting methods

Social forecasting as a study with a wide scope of objects of analysis is based on many methods. When classifying forecasting methods, their main features are distinguished.

Methods of social forecasting- a set of techniques and ways of thinking that, based on the analysis of retrospective data, exogenous (external) and endogenous (internal) connections of the object of forecasting, as well as their measurements within the framework of the phenomenon or process under consideration, derive judgments of a certain reliability regarding its (object) future development.

There are a lot of social forecasting methods and therefore they distinguish 2 main groups of methods .

1) Simple Methods

Factographic forecasting methods based on actual information material used in search forecasting and include:

1) statistical methods

extrapolation method

It proceeds from the processing of the quantitative characteristics of the object obtained in the past and present with the relative stability of the system. The main one is the analysis of time series.

analogy method, etc.

Mathematical analogies include economic models and interobject analogs. They are most often used as the simplest models of economic forecasting. Historical analogies are connected with advance (industry or regional).

2) methods of analysis of publications

Dynamics

Construction of time series based on various types of information,
analysis and forecasting on this basis of the development of the corresponding
object.

Publication

The publication forecasting method is based on evaluating the content and dynamics of publications in relation to the object of study.

Patenting

It provides for the assessment of fundamentally new inventions according to the accepted criteria system and the study of the dynamics of their patenting.

Expert forecasting methods are based on the knowledge of specialist experts about the object of forecasting and the generalization of their opinions on the development of the object in the future.

The methodology of expert work includes a number of stages:

- the circle of experts is determined;

- problems are identified;

- a plan and time of action is outlined;

– criteria for expert assessments are being developed;

- the forms and methods in which the results of the examination will be expressed are indicated

In normative forecasting, individual and collective forecasting methods are used.

Individual methods include :

Interview (There is direct contact between the expert and the specialist according to the “question-answer” scheme)

Analytical expert assessments, etc.

They represent a deep and comprehensive analysis of possible scenarios for the development of the process under study. In this case, the expert can involve additional documentary materials and think over his answers for a sufficiently long time.

Collective methods include:

Script building

A scenario is a description (a hypothetical picture) of the future, based on the most plausible assumptions. Scenarios are developed to define the framework for future development. The forecast includes several scenarios (“tube of scenarios”). In most cases, these are three scenarios: optimistic, pessimistic and medium - realistic (most likely.

- goal tree

« Goal Tree” is a structured, hierarchically structured (ranked by levels) set of system, program, plan goals. It is built by successive selection of smaller and smaller components at lower levels and is a combination of the general goal, the main goal and subgoals.

Morphological analysis, etc.

Allows you to create new information about the object as a result of systematization of data on all possible solutions to the problem under study.

2) Complex methods

These include:

1) Predictive graph method

A graph is a figure consisting of points, called vertices, and segments connecting them, called edges. The choice of graph structure is determined by the essence of those relations between the elements of the system that it must express.

The method is based on expert and formal-mathematical procedures for constructing and analyzing a graph that reflects a generalized judgment of a wide range of specialists about the needs, possible ways and resources needed to achieve the goal.

At each level, a group of experts formulates event-goals and conditions for their achievement.

The advantage of the method is the ability to work with the graph in the dialogue mode "human - information system" to check some situations, that is, the ability to play different situations.

The graph is a dynamic system, and when coming from experts new information estimates, forecast options and decisions made are reviewed.

2) Pattern system method

Used in planning development under conditions of uncertainty. The method is based on dividing a complex problem into smaller problems until each sub-problem can be comprehensively (according to different criteria) and reliably quantified by experts.

This method is used mainly to predict how the formulated goals and objectives will be achieved by those who manage the situation.

Method structure:

choice of forecast object

identification of current internal and external patterns

analysis of the hierarchy of regularities indicating the coefficient of relative importance of each level within the unit and the sum of the levels of the hierarchy equal to one

formulation of the general goal of the forecast and tasks to achieve it

preparation of a scenario (for example, development)

development of resource allocation algorithm

assessment of distribution results

The forecasting process is carried out using the system analysis methodology. Most importantly, it allows you to abandon financially unsecured and secondary topics.

3) Simulation method

1) constructing a model based on a preliminary study of the object;

2) highlighting the essential characteristics of the object;

3) experimental and theoretical analysis models;

4) comparison of simulation results with the actual data of the object;

5) correction or refinement of the model.

Economic and mathematical modeling is based on the principle of analogy, that is, the possibility of studying an object through the consideration of another object similar to it and more accessible. Such a more accessible object is the economic-mathematical model. It is a system of formalized equations that describe the basic interconnections of the elements that form an economic system or any economic process.

This model makes it possible to bring the process of obtaining and processing initial information to a complete and exhaustive description, as well as to solve the problems under consideration in a fairly wide class of specific cases.

4) Foresight method

Foresight (English - vision of the future) - the process of systematic attempts to look into the distant future in order to identify areas of strategic research and technology that are likely to bring the greatest economic and social benefits; a complex mechanism that achieves results through a combination of a system of methods.

This method includes planning, control over the implementation of the plan drawn up taking into account the method. Combines forecast and plan functions. In addition to experts, practitioners and managers are involved. Those. experience is used, which is not always a source of innovation. This is the most used method in the world.

Forecasting methods can be further divided into two additional groups (Fig. 1):

1) intuitive methods (based on the predominance of intuition, that is, subjective principles)

2) formalized methods

Intuitive Methods predictions are used in cases where it is impossible to take into account the influence of many factors due to the insignificant complexity of the forecasting object. This method includes a database of expert opinions, based on creative thinking which it is possible to build a reliable picture of the future with subsequent formal processing of the obtained forecasting results.

The main central stage of intuitive forecasting is conducting surveys of experts on the following methods:

Individual and collective

personal and correspondence

oral and written

open and anonymous

The intuitive prediction method has the following structure:

1) formation of expert teams and assessment of the competence of experts

2) synthesis graph of the modeled object of study

3) formation of questions and development of tables of expert assessments

4) analysis of the work of experts

5) algorithm for processing tables of expert assessments

6) method of variation of the received forecasts and synthesis of predictive models.

There are individual and collective expert assessments.

Part individual expert assessments includes:

1) Interview method

There is direct contact between the expert and the specialist according to the "question-answer" scheme.

2) Analytical method

A logical analysis of any predictable situation is carried out, analytical reports are compiled. It includes system analysis (integrity and unity of its elements), index analysis (ratio of performance indicators to factor indicators and the ratio of homogeneous products to each other in different periods of time) and synthesis.

3) Script writing method

Based on the definition of the logic of the development of a process or phenomenon in time under various conditions. The main purpose of the scenario is to determine the general goal of the development of the predicted object, phenomenon and the formulation of criteria for evaluating the upper levels of the “goal tree”. A scenario is a picture that reflects a consistent detailed solution of a problem, the identification of possible obstacles, the detection of serious shortcomings in order to resolve the issue of a possible termination of the work begun or the completion of ongoing work on the predicted object.

Methods collective expert assessments include:

1) Method of "Commissions"

A group of experts meets repeatedly to discuss the same issue. The method of "Commissions" provides for an examination in the form of a free exchange of views to obtain a common opinion of experts. Full-time communication of experts significantly reduces the time of examination, facilitates obtaining a single agreed opinion. When using the method of commissions, a discussion program is preliminarily developed. The group of experts is selected by "volitional way" - the method of appointment. Usually it is 10-12 people.

2) "Brainstorm" ("Brainstorm")

The essence of the brainstorming method is to actualize the potential of specialists in the analysis of a problem situation, which first implements the generation of ideas and the subsequent destruction of these ideas. The facilitator reveals the content of the problematic note and the “assault” lasts 20-60 minutes.

3) Delphi Method

It is built on the principle of generalizing the opinions of individual experts into an agreed group opinion and involves a complete rejection of collective discussions.

4) Matrix method

A forecasting method based on the use of matrices that reflect the values ​​(weights) of the graph-model vertices of the forecasting object, followed by the transformation of the matrices and operating with them. The matrix model is a rectangular table, the elements of which reflect the relationship of objects.

Rice. 1. Classification of forecasting methods according to formalization

Formalized forecasting includes:

1. Predictive extrapolation method

It proceeds from the processing of the quantitative characteristics of the object obtained in the past and present with the relative stability of the system. This method can be used in forecasting for a period of 5–7 years, since the error accumulates over time.

These methods include:

1) Least squares

It consists in finding the parameters of the trend model that minimize its deviation from the points of the original time series. An important point in obtaining a forecast using this method is the assessment of the reliability of the result.

2) Exponential smoothing

It is a very effective and reliable forecasting method. The main advantages of the method are the ability to take into account the weights of the initial information, the simplicity of computational operations, and the flexibility of describing various process dynamics. This method makes it possible to obtain an estimate of the trend parameters that characterize not the average level of the process, but the trend that has developed by the time of observation. Method found greatest application as a method for implementing medium-term forecasts.

3) Moving averages

Moving average extrapolation involves calculating the average of data groups over a certain time interval. Moreover, each subsequent data group is formed by a shift of 1 year or a month. As a result, the initial fluctuation of the time series smoothing. The essence of the method lies in the fact that the predicted indicator in terms of its value will be equal to the average calculated for the last time interval.

2. Modeling methods

Modeling – this is a method of studying objects of knowledge on their counterparts - material or mental.

Modeling happens:

Structural (represents the development of many methods of multivariate analysis, namely multiple linear regression, analysis of variance, factor analysis)

Network (allows you to implement a systematic approach, apply mathematical methods and modern CT in the study of complex processes, increase the efficiency of planning and managing such processes), etc.

Modeling methods are the most complex method forecasting, consisting of a variety of approaches to forecasting complex systems, processes and phenomena. These methods can also intersect with expert methods.

3. Main directions for improving the methodology of social forecasting

3.1 Problems of development and directions for improving the methodology of social forecasting

The main task of forecasting is the development of a forecasting methodology in order to increase the efficiency of methods and techniques for developing forecasts. The problems of forecasting include the study of the features of forecasting as a form of concretization of scientific foresight and as a specific type of scientific research, the principles of optimal selection and combination of forecasting methods, methods for checking and evaluating the reliability of forecasts, the principles of using the findings of cybernetics, probability theory, game theory, and operations research to develop forecasts. , decision theory, etc.

For forecasting to be most effective, goals must be specific and measurable. That is, for each goal, there must be criteria that would allow assessing the degree of achievement of the goal. Without these criteria, it is impossible to implement one of the main management-control functions.

Forecasting methodology plays an important role in forecasting. Among the methods most often used in forecasting social development and the standard of living of the population, the following can be distinguished: the method of expert assessments; normative method; extrapolation method; method of economic and mathematical modeling; exponential smoothing, etc.

The methodology of forecasting the social development of regions is especially important. AT last years at the level of regions (republics, krais, oblasts), work has been and is being carried out to compile short-term and medium-term forecasts of economic and social development.

The methodological prerequisites for such forecasting is that the region is an integral subsystem of the general system of social production, performing a certain economic function through the production of a certain number of products or services that are the subject of its specialization.

The forecast development process includes three blocks: analytical, conceptual and predictive.

When developing the concept of regional social development, 2 main stages can be distinguished:

1. formation of goals and their concretization in the form of specific tasks aimed at solving relevant problems;

2. prioritization of the goals and objectives of economic and social development and the development of a regional development strategy on this basis.

The main task within the forecast block is to determine the quantitative parameters and indicators of the regional development of the social system in the future. In this case, three types of forecasts are used: general economic forecasts for the development of the system as a whole; forecasts for the development of individual industries; forecasts for the development of individual administrative-territorial units of the region (cities, districts, etc.).

The main method for developing these forecasts is the compilation of a prospective development scenario. These scenarios describe probable situations for the future development of the regional social system and its structures, its relationship with other systems, determine the optimal indicators of regional development based on various factors and conditions.

The scenario method involves the establishment of indicators for the future development of critical indicators of the external environment. For example, for the development of the social sphere, it is necessary to include several options for alternative indicators of the future. Regional authorities arrange so that the population of the region increased over the year by at least 1.5% or 3%. If in the process of constructing a scenario, it is revealed that the environmental situation in the region will worsen, the situation will worsen, then for a more accurate and reliable forecast, it is necessary to adjust the number (3%) downward, for example, reduce it to 2%.

3.2 Predictive calculations of social development indicators

The most important socio-economic category that determines the well-being of the people is the standard of living. The standard of living is the degree to which the population is provided with material and spiritual benefits based on the existing needs and the level of economic development of the country.

According to the UN recommendation, the standard of living is measured by a system of indicators characterizing health, consumption, employment, education, housing, social security. In recent years, world practice has used the Human Development Index (HDI) to assess the level and quality of life. It includes: GDP per capita, life expectancy, average number of years of education of the population. Let's give an example of HDI calculation.

1) life expectancy of at least 25 years; maximum 85 years; RF 67.6 years.

2) real GDP per capita ($) at least $100; maximum $5448; in the Russian Federation 5184 $.

1. Calculate the life expectancy index (LE)

Iopzh \u003d (Xsr - Xmin) / (Xmax - X min)

where Xav is the average life expectancy,

X min - the average minimum life expectancy,

Xmax is the average maximum life expectancy.

The last two indicators in the calculations take 25 and 85 years, respectively.

Iexp \u003d (67.6 - 25) / (85 - 25) \u003d 0.71 or 71 years

2. Find the GDP index:

Ivdp \u003d (5184 - 100) / (5448 - 100) \u003d 0.95

3. Calculate the HDI index:

I rchp \u003d (Iopzh + Ivvp + Iobr) / 3

where Iobr is the education index of the population

I rchp \u003d (0.71 + 0.95 + 0.888) / 3 \u003d 0.85

Answer: The HDI index is 0.85

The main task of forecasting in the field of social development is, first of all, to determine the needs of the population for the long-term period and the possibilities of satisfying them in food, industrial goods, household services, housing, education, health services, culture, art.

In the very general view the sequence of making forecasts of social development and the standard of living of the population can be represented as follows.

1. The hypothesis of the formation of an increase in the standard of living is determined in general terms by three components: GDP growth, the growth of social needs, and the growth of resources for future consumption.

The forecast of the growth rates of resources for consumption is based on forecasted calculations of economic growth, increase in production efficiency, increase in investment, etc.

2. The analysis of the achieved standard of living includes a set of indicators that provide mutual linkage and a logical sequence in the development of forecasts.

The main ones among these indicators are the following:

1. socio-demographic indicators

2. working conditions

3. generalizing cost indicators of nominal and real incomes of the population

4. the state of health and its changes in the population as a whole and individual social groups;

5. indicators of consumption by the population of basic foodstuffs and non-food products;

6. general indicators of the service sector (spending by the population on payment for services, price index (tariffs) for certain types of paid services of the population;

7. housing conditions and public services (average provision of the population with housing, provision with basic types of public services, etc.);

8. indicators of education (the level of education of the population, the number of students in schools, the number of students in universities and secondary specialized educational institutions, including per 10 thousand people, etc.);

9. indicators of culture (number of libraries, theaters, museums, clubs, their attendance, circulation of books, magazines, newspapers);

10. state of the environment;

11. savings of the population.

The system of forecasts of social development and standard of living follows from the set of indicators discussed above. This means that the change in each indicator must be predicted in order to obtain a sufficiently complete and objective picture of the dynamics of social development and living standards in the forecast period. For example, forecasts are developed for the dynamics of real incomes of the population, changes in the retail price index, development housing construction etc.

The most important generalizing indicator of the standard of living is the income of the population. The main components of the monetary income of the population are wages, income from entrepreneurial activity and property (profit, dividends, interest, rent), social payments (pensions, allowances, scholarships, etc.).

An important role in predicting the standard of living of the population is played by: the subsistence minimum budget; minimum consumer budget; high income budget.

The subsistence minimum budget has been used in the Russian Federation since 1992. It represents the valuation of the consumer basket, as well as mandatory payments and fees. The consumer basket is minimum set food products, non-food products and services necessary to maintain human health and ensure its vital activity.

The minimum consumer budget is the social minimum of funds necessary to ensure the normal functioning of a person.

The most important indicator of the standard of living is the purchasing power of the population. It shows how many conditional sets of the subsistence minimum can be purchased by the population with their average monetary income.

Taking into account the size of consumer budgets in the Russian Federation, the entire population in terms of income and consumption can be divided into the following groups.

First group- the poor strata of the population, whose monthly per capita income is below the cost estimate of the subsistence minimum budget. The living wage in Russia today averages 5187 rubles.

Second group- low-income strata of the population, whose monthly per capita income is in the interval between the cost estimate of the subsistence minimum budget and the cost estimate of the minimum consumer budget.

Third group- medium or relatively wealthy segments of the population, whose monthly per capita income is in the interval between the cost estimate of the minimum consumer budget and the cost estimate of the budget of high prosperity.

Fourth group Wealthy and wealthy people whose monthly per capita income exceeds the budget of high prosperity.

Forecast estimates of improving the living standards of the population of the Russian Federation, as a rule, are linked to the achievement of macroeconomic stabilization and sustainable economic growth.

Conclusion

Forecasting is one of the most important stages of project activity. Mankind, having forecasts, consciously seeks and finds ways to exit. First - hunting and gathering, then - the transition to agriculture and pastoralism, from nomadic to settled way life, from villages to urban areas; development of the resources of the World Ocean, etc. Forecasting in a broad sense is a prediction, in general, of any information received about the future. In a narrow sense - a special scientific study, the subject of which are the prospects for the development of phenomena.

One of the most important types of forecasting is social forecasting - this is the prediction of trends and prospects for possible development social systems, objects, social phenomena, processes. The object of social forecasting can be all social systems, all phenomena occurring in society.

Forecasting is an integral part of the process of developing a social project. In isolation from design, forecasting loses its practical meaning. Social forecasting makes it possible to take into account various options for the movement and development of social systems. The development of correct forecasts makes it possible to make management more perfect, and design more efficient.

Social forecasting methods are a set of techniques and ways of thinking that allow, based on the analysis of retrospective data, exogenous (external) and endogenous (internal) connections of the object of forecasting, as well as their measurements within the framework of the phenomenon or process under consideration, to derive judgments of a certain reliability regarding it (the object) future development.

Intuitive forecasting methods are used in cases where it is impossible to take into account the influence of many factors due to the insignificant complexity of the forecasting object. In this case, expert estimates are used. At the same time, individual and collective expert assessments are distinguished.

The group of formalized methods includes subgroups: extrapolation and modeling. The first subgroup includes methods: least squares, exponential smoothing, moving averages. To the second - structural, network and matrix modeling.

List of used literature

1.Arzhenovsky S.V. Methods of socio-economic forecasting: Tutorial. - M .: Publishing house "Dashkov and Co"; Rostov n/a, 2008

2.Safronova V.M. Forecasting and modeling in social work: Proc. allowance for students. higher textbook establishments. - M .: Publishing Center "Academy", 2002

3. Bestuzhev-Lada I.V. Social forecasting. Lecture course. - M .: Pedagogical Society of Russia 2002

4.Safronova V.M. Forecasting and modeling in social work: Proc. allowance for students. higher textbook establishments. - M .: Publishing Center "Academy", 2002

The concept of "social forecasting"

Initially, social forecasting was called "futurology". From Latin it is translated as the doctrine of the future.

Definition 1

In the broad sense of the word, futurology acts as a study of future events and phenomena, as well as social structure; and creating an idea of ​​the future of all mankind, based on the experience of the past and current events in the present. In a narrow sense, futurology can be considered a separate area of ​​scientific knowledge, which includes the entire set of prospects for the development of an individual or society as a whole.

Futurology can also be of several types at once:

  • Religious futurology;
  • Artistic futurology;
  • Scientific futurology.

Forecasting, as well as the process that is built on its basis - the development of a forecast - is the probability of judging the state of a particular phenomenon or process, but in the future, taking into account its current state and development opportunities. Also, forecasting is one of the methods of scientific research that allows you to identify the prospects for the development of a certain phenomenon. Predominantly, forecasting is associated with quantitative indicators rather than with qualitative ones, but at the same time it does not completely exclude their significance. In general, as we have previously indicated, forecasting (futurology) is carried out at several main levels:

  1. Household level (for example, the use of folk signs to determine the weather, productivity);
  2. Fiction (definition of fiction, intuition);
  3. Strict rational forms (scientific forecasting, which are used by scientists in various fields human life).

As for forecasting, which refers to the development of social phenomena and processes, it is called "social forecasting". The state of society, its development in the future has always been the object of research. Forecasting in the social sphere is directly related to goal setting, as well as planning, programming of certain phenomena, design and management, which will very effectively affect the achievement of exactly the result that is most favorable and expected.

Social forecasting can be of several types at once. Firstly, these are search forecasts, which are carried out to search for completely new trends or development alternatives. Secondly, normative forecasts - forecasting the possibility of the emergence and implementation of the latest norms, traditions and rules in society. Thirdly, analytical forecasts - the search for probable consequences that are generated by the real causes of certain processes and phenomena. The last type of forecast is warning forecasts, which are aimed at identifying and preventing the most undesirable ways of developing processes and phenomena in society.

Key methods of futurology

Remark 1

For the implementation of social forecasting, both qualitative and quantitative methods are most often used. sociological research. forecasting itself acts as a separate method, as well as a method of studying any object of forecasting. It aims to identify development trends and develop a forecast for the most favorable ways to improve the situation in the future. The totality of all the rules, methods, and techniques used is the methodology of social forecasting.

One of the most common methods of social forecasting is the method of expert assessments. Most often it is used in the organization of long-range forecasts. AT this case forecasting is carried out on the basis of an opinion expressed by an expert in this field. A task is set before him, and after its analysis, a forecast is made (both favorable and undesirable). Note that an expert is a specialist with a sufficient level of knowledge and qualifications, which belongs to the problem area.

Peer reviews can also be individual or collective. The methods of individual expert assessments include the following: analytical method (analysis of any situation, drawing up an analytical note based on the results of the study); the method of interviewing is the implementation of direct contact with the expert on the principle of "question-answer"; scenario writing method (determining the logic of the development of a particular process or phenomenon, taking into account time and various external factors which can have both positive and negative effects).

As for the method of collective expert assessments, one should also pay attention to a fairly branched structure. Firstly, this includes the method of commissions (the so-called collective meeting, during which the actual problem is determined, the process is identified, its current state and possible states in the future); method "Delphi" - it consists in the fact that it is necessary to organize a systematic collection of expert assessments, ensure their mathematical and statistical processing, and then the experts correct their own assessments based on the results of each data processing cycle.

The methodology of expert work in the organization of social forecasting may include several key stages that are interconnected. If one stage is missed, then there is a possibility of incorrect forecasting results. The steps should include the following:

  • Determining the circle of experts in a particular field on the problem, process or phenomenon under study;
  • Identification of a range of problems or one urgent problem that must be resolved and its possible consequences predicted;
  • Discussion of the action plan as well as the time period;
  • Development of criteria that will be used to create expert assessments;
  • Designation of forms and ways in which the results of the examination will be expressed. It could be writing a policy brief, organizing " round table» with further discussion and discussion, Scientific Conference, publication in a collection or presentation by experts presenting the results of their work - a presentation.

Introduction… 2

Traditional Methods social forecasting… 2

Sociosynergetics is an unconventional forecasting method… 5

XXI century: the scenario of the evolution of Western civilization… 5

In the study of the future, an extensive and diverse arsenal of scientific methods, special techniques, logical and technical means knowledge. The Austrian futurist Erich Young lists about 200 of them, and his list is not exhaustive. However, the main methods of social forecasting are reduced to the following five (the rest are their various combinations and variations): 1) extrapolation; 2) historical analogy; 3) computer simulation; 4) future scenarios; 5) expert assessments. Each of these methods of anticipating the future has its advantages and disadvantages. The accuracy of extrapolation, for example, decreases sharply as one moves into the future, which cannot possibly be a simple quantitative continuation of the present. Very limited applicability to foreseeing the future historical analogy, for the future of mankind cannot in any way be reduced in its basic features to a repetition of the past. Hegel understood this very well, who wittily wrote: “Rulers, statesmen and peoples are advised with importance to draw lessons from the experience of history.

But experience and history teach that peoples and governments have never learned anything from history and have never acted according to the lessons that could be drawn from it. In each epoch there are such special circumstances, each epoch is such an individual state that in this epoch it is necessary and possible to make only such decisions that follow from this state itself.

The most reliable method of social forecasting remains expert review perspectives of the real historical process, provided that it is based on correct theoretical ideas about it, uses the results obtained with the help of other methods, and gives these results a correct interpretation.

The anticipation of the future inevitably somehow affects the consciousness and behavior of people in the present. Depending on the description of the future contained in social forecasts, they induce a person to either actively strive for it, or counteract its onset, or passively expect it. Therefore, any social forecast combines both scientific and cognitive content and a certain ideological purpose.

And in this fusion of two functions - cognitive and ideological - both the first and the second can prevail. Based on the content and purpose of various forecasts, four main types (types) can be distinguished: search; regulatory; analytical; warning predictions.

Search forecasts(sometimes referred to as "exploratory" or "realistic") are drawn up directly in order to reveal what the future might be, starting from realistic assessments of existing given time development trends in various fields social activities.

Regulatory forecasts, focused on achieving certain goals in the future, contain various practical recommendations for the implementation of relevant development plans and programs.

Analytical forecasts, usually done in order to scientific purposes determine the cognitive value of various methods and means of studying the future.

Forecasts-cautions are designed to directly influence the consciousness and behavior of people in order to force them to prevent the proposed future.

Of course, the differences between these main types of forecasts are arbitrary; in the same specific social forecast, signs of several types can be combined.

It must be said that some doctrinaires and conservative social scientists in our country quite recently rejected futurology, calling it "bourgeois pseudoscience", as before they rejected genetics and cybernetics under this pretext. However, refuting the claims of Western futurologists for the monopoly right to explore the future, there is no need to deny social forecasting the right to exist as a special branch of scientific knowledge, declaring it the prerogative of each science separately.

AT modern era along with further specialization in science, there is a growing desire to integrate knowledge both “from below” (biophysics, geochemistry, etc.) and “from above” (cybernetics, ecology, etc.). Among such integrating branches of knowledge is social forecasting, which obviously cannot be divided into separate departments of science. For there can be no justified social forecasts without taking into account the prospects for economic, environmental, demographic development, scientific and technological progress and the possible evolution of culture and international relations.

Anticipating the Future is an interdisciplinary comprehensive study of the prospects of mankind, which can be fruitful only in the process of integrating humanitarian, natural science and technical knowledge.1

The conclusion about the similarity of the individual actions of the researcher of the economic space with the main sequence of the research procedure is carried out by comparing the steps for studying the economic space with a set of elements that characterize scientific, technical, socio-economic and spiritual progress in the modern era.

Traditional methods of social forecasting based on classical rationality have a number of disadvantages: one-dimensionality, linearity, no alternative, etc. Sociosynergetics differs from classical methodology in that it is based on a fundamentally different worldview approach - the philosophy of instability. This allows, when building models of historical processes, to take into account such important features of real systems as stochasticity, uncertainty, nonlinearity, and polyvariance.

While noting the advantages of synergetic modeling of evolutionary processes, at the same time we should emphasize the considerable difficulties associated with the practical use of these methods. The main one is the exceptionally high complexity of social systems, the presence of a large number factors that determine their dynamics. And the links between the factors themselves are complex and multi-staged. To this should be added the lack of development of methods for analyzing bifurcation phases and evolutionary catastrophes. These circumstances determined the relatively slow progress in the development of synergistic methods of social forecasting, or futurosynergetics.

Let's consider how sociosynergy is able to carry out social forecasting. As an example, let's build a model of Western civilization.

Since the systemic crisis has put the Western community on the threshold of bifurcation, its further evolution is necessarily of a multivariate nature. Therefore, modeling the process of evolution of Western civilization beyond the threshold of bifurcation should begin with the construction of a spectrum of evolutionary scenarios. A summary of these scenarios, based on a summary of the above analysis, is presented in Table. 1. It identifies the main factors that may play a role in the transition to the appropriate scenario.

Table 1

Scenarios for the evolution of the West

Scenarios

Main Factors

1. Save current situation

2. World totalitarian system

3. New Middle Ages

4. The split of the world community

5. Environmental disaster

6. Transition to the noosphere

TIC control over the world market. High level of VMP. Updating the technological structure of developed countries

Strategy of the "golden billion". Slow pace of development of the third world

Population explosion in third world countries. Technological slowdown. Loss of socio-cultural unity by the West

Aggravation of contradictions between world centers of power. Exhaustion of stabilization possibilities. Multiple military conflicts in the regions. Terrorism

The abrupt deterioration of the ecological situation on the planet

Support for fundamental science, high technology, education. Strengthening world unity

Modern Western civilization is not yet capable of maintaining control over the negative trends of global development. By maintaining control over the gross world product with the help of transnational corporations, the West is able to allocate part of its resources to suppress certain dangerous instabilities that arise in various regions. By achieving on this basis equal responsibility among all modern communities, Western civilization can provide a solution to global problems. This point of view corresponds to scenario #1.

The ideology underlying development according to scenario No. 2 is the establishment of total control of the West over the entire world community, the strategy of the "golden billion" and modernism. The modernizing paradigm has been thoroughly studied by A. Panarin. The most likely way to achieve this goal is to create a planetary information highway. The "universal information market" will eventually become the central department store of the world. In this new beautiful world, wealth and technological achievements will go to a few, poverty will remain the lot of the majority. The possible appearance of this new general planetary system is convincingly described in Zinoviev's fantastic story "The Global Human Clerk". Totalitarian Information society, he writes, will be a world "without hopes and despairs, without illusions and without insights, without delusions and without disappointments", and therefore doomed in the end to death, as happened to the Roman Empire.

It is often argued that in order to avoid the coming ecological catastrophe, it is necessary either to reduce the population of the Earth by 10 times, or to reduce consumption by the same amount. natural resources per inhabitant of the planet. Some authoritative researchers believe that this is not enough and that the technogenic pressure on the environment should be reduced by several hundred times. It is easy to see that these proposals (see Scenario No. 3) are tantamount to calls for a return to the medieval way of life. It is possible to imagine how this will proceed in practice, if we recall character traits medieval times, so convincingly described by Berdyaev, and compare them with the realities of our modern life. These realities are sad: financial collapse, impotence of the Center and the collapse of the country, impoverishment of the population, curtailment of science and education, rampant obscurantism, banditry in cities and on the roads, etc.

Scenarios No. 2 and No. 3 are united by the installation of global totalitarianism with the difference that in the first case we are talking about reliance on high technologies, and in the second we mean the rejection of scientific and technological progress. Both projects are undoubtedly utopias. Unfortunately, this does not exclude possible attempts to implement them. An alternative to both scenarios could be a split in the world community, the manifestations of which can be very different. Huntington's idea of ​​a conflict of civilizations is widely known. The basis for this concept is a group of contradictions between the global technosphere and environment, between the West and the rest of mankind, between the types of consciousness inherent in different civilizations

Refined "ecoracism". defended by the supporters of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2, can lead to an overstrain of the forces of the Western community, seeking to put its own interests above the interests of the rest of humanity, and as a result, to the loss of its own unity. “The impoverished world,” Panarin writes about the results of such a policy, “will look for charismatic leaders and prophets who denounce the new Rome - the prosperous West. On this path, a unified planetary consciousness is unlikely to await us.” In this case, the development according to scenario No. 4 will become real with the disintegration of the world into a large number of centers of power built on different principles and being in acute conflict with each other.

The fifth scenario - a global ecological catastrophe - does not require special comments, since a lot of publications are devoted to it. In 1997 alone, these problems were considered at three international forums held at the highest level. Until an effective strategy for overcoming the ecological crisis is developed and implemented, the danger of a global collapse remains real. It is important to note that, in accordance with the theory of self-organizing systems, this process can develop in an exacerbation mode, when it will be too late to take any preventive measures.

The last, sixth scenario is conditionally called the transition to the noosphere. It is also a complex, multifaceted process that affects almost all aspects of human existence - worldview, scientific, technological, cultural, educational, ethical, socio-political, religious, etc. The theory of noospherogenesis is not yet sufficiently developed, but it can be noted that the three pillars of this process are the achievements of fundamental science, high technology and a deep reform of the education system. The transition to the noosphere is not an easy task for Western civilization, since the principles of noospherization sharply diverge from its typical philosophy of consumerism and individualism. In addition, the transition to the noosphere can take place only if it has a global, universal character.

From the point of view of synergetic forecasting, all the considered scenarios are of the same order, but not equally probable. In real life, these scenarios form a connected unity, the evolutionary process can develop based on their combination.

1. Nazaretyan A.P. Synergetics in the Humanities: Preliminary Results // Social Sciences and Modernity. 1997. No. 2.

2. Leskov L.V. Synergetic modeling of the future // Theory of foresight and the future. M., 1997

3. Valtukh K.K. Impossibility theorems // Social sciences and modernity. 1994. No. 1.

4. Moiseev N.N. Does Russia have a future? M., 1997

5. Panarin A.S. Political science. M., 1997

6. Fukuyama F. End of story? // Questions of Philosophy. 1991. No. 1.

social forecasting- an interdisciplinary set of studies related to the definition of options for the development of social processes and the choice of the most appropriate ones that can ensure their implementation.

Types of social forecasts

Prediction method: predictive extrapolation method of expert assessments, "brainstorming", Delphi method, etc.

social forecasting- foresight, trends and prospects for the possible development of the social system, the forecast is general and abstract:

Predictive extrapolation method;

Method of expert assessments;

Collective expertise, brain stage;

Simulation method;

Method of mathematical modeling.

Word " forecasting " comes from a Greek word meaning foresight or divination. However, social forecasting is not one of the types of foresight, but the next stage, which is associated with process management.

AT himself general sense forecasting means development of a forecast in the form of formulating a probabilistic judgment about the state of a phenomenon in the future.

In a narrow sense forecasting means a special scientific study of the prospects for the development of a phenomenon, mainly with quantitative estimates and indicating more or less certain periods of change in this phenomenon.

The forecast does not provide solutions to the problems of the future. Its task is to contribute to the scientific substantiation of development plans and programs. Forecasting characterizes a possible set of necessary ways and means of implementing the planned program of action.

Under the forecast should be borne in mind probabilistic statement about the future with relatively a high degree credibility. Its difference from foresight lies in the fact that the latter is interpreted as an improbable statement about the future, based on absolute certainty, or (another approach) is a logically constructed model of a possible future with not yet a certain level reliability. It is easy to see that the degree of reliability of statements about the future is used as the basis for the distinction between terms. At the same time, it is obvious that forecasting proceeds from the ambiguity of development.

The forecast has a specific character and is necessarily associated with certain quantitative estimates. In accordance with this, the author classifies the expected number of crimes in the next calendar year as forecasts, and the early release of a prisoner known conditions- to the category of predictions.

It can be concluded that a prediction is a qualitative assessment of the future, and a forecast is a quantitative assessment of the future.

social forecasting- identification of development options and selection of the most acceptable, optimal based on resources, time and social forces capable of ensuring their implementation. Social forecasting is the work with alternatives, a deep analysis of the degree of probability and the multivariance of possible solutions.

At the same time, it is necessary to note the distinctive, specific features of social forecasting. They can be identified as follows.

First of all, the formulation of the goal here is relatively general and abstract: it allows for a high degree of probability. The purpose of forecasting is based on the analysis of the state and behavior of the system in the past and the study of possible trends in the change of factors affecting the system under consideration, to correctly determine the probabilistic quantitative and qualitative parameters of its development in the future, to reveal the options for the situation in which the system will find itself.

Secondly, social forecasting does not have a directive character.

In conclusion, we can say that the qualitative difference between a variant forecast and a specific plan is that the forecast provides information to justify the decision and choose planning methods. It indicates the possibility of one or another development path in the future, and the plan expresses the decision on which of the possibilities the society will implement.

There is a noticeable difference between forecasting within the natural and technical sciences, on the one hand, and within the social sciences, on the other. The weather forecast, for example, can be set with a high degree of probability. But at the same time, it cannot be canceled by a managerial decision. Within small limits, a person can consciously change the state of the weather (for example, it is possible to clear the sky from clouds in connection with a major public holiday or stimulate the gathering of snow avalanches in the mountains), but these are very rare cases of opposition to the forecast. Basically, a person has to adapt his actions to the weather (take an umbrella if rain is expected; put on warm clothes if it is cold, etc.).

The specificity of social forecasting lies in the fact that the prediction of social phenomena and processes and their management are closely related. Having predicted an undesirable social process, we can stop it or modify it in such a way that it does not show its negative qualities. Having predicted a positive process, we can actively contribute to its development, contribute to its expansion in the territory of action, coverage of people, duration of manifestation, etc.

Social innovation has specific features among other innovations: if in the scientific, technical, economic spheres the meaning of innovation is to achieve greater efficiency, then in the social sphere, establishing efficiency is problematic. How is this defined?

1. In the social sphere, the improvement of the position of some people can create tension (sometimes only psychological) for others. Social innovation is evaluated through the prism of the value-normative system.

2. Successful Solution some social problems may give rise to other problems or turn out to be a success not in the sense in which the task was understood.

Exist three main specific forecasting method: extrapolation, modeling, expertise.

The classification of forecasting into extrapolation, modeling and expertise is rather conditional, since predictive models involve extrapolation and expert assessments, the latter are the results of extrapolation and modeling, etc. In the development of forecasts, methods of analogy, deduction, induction, various statistical methods, economic , sociological, etc.

extrapolation method.

This method was one of the historically first methods that became widely used in social forecasting. Extrapolation - this is the extension of the conclusions made in the study of one part of a phenomenon (process) to another part, including the unobservable. In the social field, it is a way of predicting future events and states, based on the assumption that some trends that have manifested themselves in the past and in the present will continue.

Extrapolation example: a series of numbers 1, 4, 9, 16 suggests that the next number will be 25, since the beginning of the series is the squares of the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4. We extrapolated the found principle to the unwritten part of the series.

Extrapolation is widely used in demography when calculating the future size of the population, its sex and age and family structures, etc. Using this method, the future rejuvenation or aging of the population can be calculated, the characteristics of fertility, mortality, marriage rates are given in periods that are several years away from the present. decades.

Via computer programs(Exel, etc.) you can post-
dig extrapolation in the form of a graph in accordance with the available formulas.

However, in social forecasting, the possibilities of extrapolation as a forecasting method are somewhat limited. This is due to a number of reasons that are related to the fact that social processes develop over time. This limits the possibilities of their accurate modeling. So, up to a certain point, the process can slowly increase, and then a period of rapid development begins, which ends with a saturation stage. After that, the process stabilizes again. If such features of the course of social processes are not taken into account, then the application of the extrapolation method can lead to an error.

2. Modeling.Modeling is a method of studying objects of knowledge on their analogues (models) - real or mental.

An analogue of an object can be, for example, its layout (reduced, proportionate or enlarged), drawing, diagram, etc. In the social sphere, mental models are more often used. Working with models allows you to transfer experimentation from the real social facility to its mentally constructed duplicate and avoid the risk of an unsuccessful, all the more dangerous for people management decision. The main feature of a mental model is that it can be subject to any kind of tests, which practically consist in changing the parameters of itself and the environment in which it (as an analogue of a real object) exists. This is the great advantage of the model. It can also act as a model, a kind of ideal type, an approximation to which may be desirable for the creators of the project.

In social design, it is more accurate to say that a model created on the basis of a plan and preliminary information makes it possible to identify, clarify and limit the goals of the project being developed.

At the same time, the disadvantage of the model is its simplification. Certain properties and characteristics of a real object in it are coarsened or not taken into account at all as insignificant. If this were not done, the work with the model would be extremely complicated, and the model itself would not contain dense, compact information about the object. And yet there are potential errors in the application of modeling to social engineering and forecasting.

"rooted with school years the notion that a model can only be mathematical is profoundly mistaken. The model can also be formulated in natural language.”

This circumstance is important to take into account in social design. Modeling techniques can facilitate design tasks and make the project visible. Many, while talking, hold a sheet of paper in front of them and, in the course of presenting their point of view, fix the main points, indicate the links between them with arrows and other signs, etc. This is one of the common forms visualization, widely used in modeling. Visualization is able to more clearly reveal the essence of the problem and clearly indicate in which directions it can be solved and where to expect success and where failure.

The value of non-mathematical modeling for social design is very high. The model allows not only to develop an effective managerial decision, but simulate conflict situations, probable when making a decision, and ways to reach agreement.

In fact, any kind of business games are simulations.

The analysis and modeling of social systems has recently been developed into an autonomous sociological discipline with original mathematical software.

3. Expertise. Expertise is a special method of forecasting. In social design, it is used not only to solve problems of predictive justification, but also wherever it is necessary to deal with issues with a low level of certainty of the parameters to be studied.

Expertise in the context of artificial intelligence research is interpreted as resolution of hard-to-formalizable(or poorly formalized) tasks. Arose in connection with the problems of programming, this understanding of expertise has acquired a system-wide character. It is the difficulty of formalizing a certain task that makes other methods of its study ineffective, except for expertise. As a way to describe the problem by formal means is found, the role of accurate measurements and calculations increases and, on the contrary, the effectiveness of expert assessments decreases.

The totality of various concepts about the future of mankind is sometimes called futurology (from the Latin futurum - the future and the Greek logos - teaching). The study of the future is based on the idea of ​​foresight, forecasting the future states of the social system.

From the point of view of the correlation of the cultural-ideological and scientific-rational components, the concept of the future can be divided into two groups. The first includes non-scientific ideas about the future, the second - scientific.

Non-scientific ideas arose in culture earlier and are of greater interest in the mass consciousness, since they do not require practical verification of their effectiveness and special preparation for perception. Elements of predicting the future are contained in magic, religion, myth. For example, Christianity contains predictions of the distant future such as the Second Coming or the Last Judgment. During the Renaissance, the social utopia became widespread. For example, the books of T. More and T. Campanella. They construct a holistic picture of the future society, taking into account the smallest details. The ways and mechanisms of achieving this future are not indicated. Literary utopias and dystopias of the 19th–20th centuries deserve attention. For example, the novels of N.G. Chernyshevsky, E.I. Zamyatin, O. Huxley, D. Orwell, F. Kafka. They help to clearly present the negative phenomena that exist only in the bud, contribute to the development of a social ideal. Fantasy plays a special role. Being a literary work in form, it relies heavily on scientific knowledge and technical achievements.

Scientific research of the future took on a large-scale character in the 20th century and were realized in the formation of the methodology of social forecasting.

Social forecasting is a special kind of studying the future, based on special methods and characterized by a high degree of scientific validity and objectivity. The main task of social forecasting is the substantiation of trends and plans community development and improving their efficiency. Social forecasting is the basis of social forecasting.

A social forecast is a theoretical model of the future state of the phenomenon under study. The social forecast has a probabilistic nature and is based on the ability of human consciousness to anticipate reality. There are many social forecasts that can be divided into separate types according to various criteria.

Depending on which particular sphere of reality is reflected, forecasts regarding natural or social systems differ. For example, meteorological, hydrological, geological, biomedical, socio-medical, scientific and technical forecasts.

Forecasts also differ in scale. They can describe the future state of both the system as a whole and its individual subsystems or elements. For example, the development of legal education in the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, or in the Republic of Belarus as a whole.

From the point of view of chronological parameters, forecasts can be focused on the near future or on the long term: long-term, medium-term, short-term.

Social forecasts relating to specific areas of society and designed for rapid implementation in the current time are called social technologies. Specific indicators play a leading role in their development. Long-term forecasts are built on the basis of an integrated and systematic approach. Their direct effectiveness is lower than that of short-term forecasts, but the choice of alternative development models is richer.

Social projections take into account practical relevance and anticipated reactions from stakeholders. Depending on this, they are search, regulatory and analytical. Search forecasts build a probabilistic model, i.e. show what the future can be, in what direction development will go while maintaining existing trends. Often they are in the nature of a warning. Normative forecasts contain goals and recommendations, set a specific framework for the development of a process and its desired results. They are based on a legal basis and may be prescriptive. Analytical forecasts not only create alternative models of the future, but also evaluate the methods and means, costs and expenses in achieving them.

The effectiveness of social forecasts is determined by objectivity and accuracy in the analysis of real processes; professionalism, responsibility and ideological attitudes of the developers of forecasts; availability of technological and financial resources. Social forecasting methods play a leading role in the development of forecasts.

There are a fairly large number of different methods, special techniques, technical, mathematical and logical means of creating social forecasts. The most famous of them:

The extrapolation method is based on the distribution, transfer of the characteristics of a part or element of a phenomenon to the entire phenomenon as a whole. For example, based on the observation of individual members of a social group, a conclusion is made about the level of culture of the entire group.

The interpolation method is based on transferring the characteristics of an integral reality to the elements of which it consists. If we turn to the previous example, then interpolation consists in the projection of conclusions about social group for each individual member of this group.

The method of historical analogy is based on the assumption of similarity, correspondence of the states of the same phenomenon in the present and future.

The modeling method is based on the creation of special substitutes for real objects or phenomena in order to study their properties and reactions under changing conditions. Modeling has a sign-symbolic form, associated with the use of computer technology. Computer global modeling of the prospects for the development of mankind and the "limits to growth" of technological civilization is carried out in the preparation of the reports of the Club of Rome. The validity of this method is very high.

The method of expert assessments is based on comparing constantly changing information about a system with predetermined numerical indicators. Evaluation is a way of establishing the significance of a phenomenon for the acting and cognizing subject. An expert is a highly educated specialist, a scientist who makes an assessment. The significance of a phenomenon can be theoretical, practical and axiological. It depends on the nature of the needs and demands in the activity.

The Future Scenario Method is a description of the future based on plausible assumptions. It represents a certain number of possible development options, several scenarios: optimistic, pessimistic and medium (most likely). They are developed for specific objects: technology, market, country, region. They cover a large time period, so the reliability is low.

Exercise

1. Formulate the main tasks sustainable development Republic of Belarus in the conditions of scientific and technological progress and globalization.

2. In what form and degree do the global problems of our time manifest themselves in the Republic of Belarus? How are they taken into account in the legislation?

3. Give examples of socio-legal forecasts, forecasts in the activities of an employee of the internal affairs bodies and determine the degree of their effectiveness.