Social forecasting: analysis of methods. modeling of research objects, their presentation in a simplified form, a schematic form, convenient for obtaining predictive conclusions. * scripting methods

Historically, one of the first methods to be widely used in forecasting was the extrapolation method. Its essence is the construction of dynamic (statistical or logical) series of indicators of the predicted process with possibly more early date in the past (hindsight) up to the lead date (outlook) of the forecasts. With this approach, the choice of the optimal type of functions is carried out (accounting for time, conditions, etc.). A great effect is the use of complex extrapolation formulas, the conclusions of probability theory, game theory - the whole arsenal modern mathematics and cybernetics, which makes it possible to more accurately assess the scale of possible shifts and extrapolated trends.

However, in social forecasting, extrapolation is limited. This is due to a number of reasons. Some social processes develop along curves close to logic function. Up to a certain point, the process slowly increases, then a period of rapid development begins, which ends with a saturation stage. After that, the process stabilizes again. Failure to comply with this requirement leads to serious errors.

One way to test the reliability of this method may be to extrapolate growth curves "to the point of absurdity." It shows that the current mechanism may change in the future, new trends may arise in its functioning. In this case, the correct solution is A complex approach, which combines logical analysis, expert assessments and normative calculations.

This was ignored by N.S. Khrushchev and those forces (including scientific ones) who, on the basis of the existing dynamics of the development of the USSR in the 50s (there was a rise and rapid growth National economy) and the leading capitalist countries, which experienced a number of crises during this period, made a long-term forecast that the Soviet Union would achieve the most advanced positions in the world by the beginning of the 1980s, which was announced as the onset of the era of communism.

Expert methods are very widely used in forecasting, ranging from analytical notes and round tables to agree on opinions and develop an informed decision to special expert assessments designed to give an objective description of the qualitative and quantitative aspects of the forecasting object based on the processing and analysis of a set of individual expert opinions. . The quality of an expert assessment, its reliability and validity to a decisive extent depend on the chosen methodology for collecting and processing individual expert values, which includes the following steps: selecting the composition of experts and assessing their competence; compiling questionnaires for interviewing experts; obtaining expert opinions; assessment of the consistency of expert opinions; assessment of the reliability of the results; drawing up a program for processing expert opinions.

Solving such a difficult task as forecasting new directions, which is necessary to determine prospects and trends, requires more advanced scientific and organizational methods for obtaining expert assessments.

One of them is called the method of the Delphic oracle or the method of Delphi. It provides for a complex procedure for receiving and processing responses. On its basis, scientists make predictions regarding the scientific, technical and social progress, military-political and some other problems for decades to come. But to what extent are long-term (and even more super-long-term) forecasts compiled in this way and the very method of their formation reliable?

Forecasts obtained using the Delphi method are based on research and objective knowledge of the object, taking into account the objective views and opinions of the respondents regarding this future. At the same time, intuition plays a big role, which can suggest the right decision, since it is based on the expert's extensive experience. In such cases, forecasts always turn out to be erroneous, for which history knows many examples. Therefore, the intuitive approach does not always lead to the desired results, especially when solving problems of great complexity, and social forecasting is increasingly faced with just such problems. The study of intuitive forecasts, writes, for example, the Austrian forecaster E. Janch, reveals that "they are rather random scraps of systematic thinking, uncritical extrapolations of the current state of affairs and repetitions of other forecasts."

Usually, the Delphi method makes it possible to identify the prevailing opinion of the respondents on a selected range of problems. It is especially suitable for making short-term forecasts, predicting local events, i.e. in relatively simple cases. But the use of the method of expert assessments in any of its variants for long-term, comprehensive, and even more so global, social foresight increases the reliability of forecasts.

As well as positive aspects The method of expert assessments should also be noted and its disadvantages: it is cumbersome, since it takes a lot of time for each cycle of obtaining answers from experts, which provide a rather large amount of information. In addition, since the method is based on the intuition and subjective views of the respondents, the quality of the assessment directly depends on the qualifications of the experts.

The Oedipus effect plays an important role in social forecasting; the possibility of self-fulfillment or self-destruction of the forecast, if the creative activity of people is connected to this process, in the process of which positive expectations are realized or warnings and threats are eliminated. Thus, the construction of a graph of crimes in Russia in the 90s can lead to the conclusion about their inevitable growth, about the involvement in the criminal life of an increasing number of the population. However, it is the awareness and understanding of this perspective that leads society to focus on this phenomenon and take measures to this forecast did not take place.

Thus, forecasts have the ability to self-realization, but only if the needs and interests of people are connected in a single chain, both at the level of social, industrial, and their personal lives. The experience of forecasting and implementing forecasts shows that their value is also associated with the ambiguity of approaches to solving public problems, with a depth of analysis of the degree of probability of the occurrence of possible changes.

a huge role morphological synthesis plays in social forecasting, which provides for obtaining systematic information on all possible parameters of the problem under study. This method assumes complete absence any prior judgment or discussion. This method answers the following types of questions: a) what tools are needed to obtain forecast information; b) what is the sequence of occurrence of events; c) how to trace the application of all means, or all methods, or all stages of solving a given problem? But the most significant requirement in this method is not to miss a single opportunity, not to reject anything without a preliminary exhaustive study.

Among the methods used in social forecasting, forecasting scenarios play a significant role. With their help, a logical sequence is established in order to show how, based on a real situation, the future state of an object, research, social process or phenomenon can unfold step by step.

The main significance of the forecast scenario is associated with the definition of development prospects, its main line, as well as the identification of the main factors of the background of development and criteria for assessing the levels of achievement of the goal.

In addition, predictive graphs are used, which can be directed or undirected, contain or not contain cycles, be connected or disconnected, etc. Together with the goal tree, they determine the development of the object as a whole, participate in the formulation of forecast goals, the scenario, in determining the levels and criteria for the effectiveness of forecasts.

And, finally, in social forecasting, the method of modeling (optimization of decisions) is widely used, which is associated with the search for development alternatives, which makes it possible to select the best option for given conditions. The task of choosing the optimal option for long-term prospective development requires the definition of an optimality criterion, which should reflect the efficiency of the system and have a simple mathematical expression. Among the methods for solving optimization problems, linear programming is widespread. In dynamic programming problems, a system is considered that can change its state over time, but this process can be controlled.

All mathematical models and forecasting methods are probabilistic and change depending on the length of the forecasting period. The use of models increases the efficiency of forecasting, allows you to consider a large number of options and choose the most suitable one. However, there are also negative aspects in modeling, due to the insufficient accuracy and elasticity of models in forecasting, especially for a long period.

Thus, social forecasting is based on various methods studying the objective patterns of scientific, technological and social progress, as well as modeling options for their future development in order to form, justify and optimize promising solutions.

Methods of social forecasting

Stages of developing social forecasts

In social work

Forecasting and design

Social diagnostics

Maladaptation. Its causes and sources

Social adaptation, its types.

Adaptive essence of social work technologies

Typology of social work technologies

Technologization of social work

Technological revolution of the XX century and technologization of the social sphere. Strengthening the pragmatic principle in social life striving to minimize costs.

Types and methods of building social technologies. Stages technological process: goal-setting, development of tactical means, organization, evaluation. The frontiers of technology.

Properties of social work technologies:

§ dynamism,

§ continuity,

§ cyclicality,

§ discreteness, etc.

Typology criteria:

§ by object,

§ according to the degree of its maturity,

§ scale,

§ the sphere of social life,

§ by purpose

General, interdisciplinary and specific (private) technologies of social work.

Technologies of social work with various groups of the population

levels of adaptation. R. Merton on the forms of individual adaptation to the social conditions of life:

‣‣‣ conformism

‣‣‣ innovation

‣‣‣ ritualism

‣‣‣ retreatism

‣‣‣ rebellion

The integrative nature of social diagnosis. social norm and pathology. Contradictory social norms.

Types of diagnostics.

Levels and methods of diagnostics, stages of its implementation. Collecting information about the client and his immediate environment. Methods of sociological, psychological, pedagogical and other types of diagnostics used in social work.

social forecasting

Social forecasting as a method scientific knowledge and technology of social work.

Functions and principles forecasting in social work.

Typology of social forecasts. Formalized and intuitive methods of social forecasting.

Forecast classification according to their ultimate goals:

* search (research),

* regulatory (software.

lead time social forecast:

* operational,

* short-term, medium- and long-term forecasts.

Predictive Flashback

Prognostic diagnosis

Prospection.

Task for the forecast and its main elements.

Forecast Orientation

Construction of the basic model and dynamic-statistical series

Construction of hypothetical models, their verification

Factographic (formalized) methods: statistical, extrapolation, interpolation, analogies, etc.

Expert (intuitive) methods: individual (peer review, psycho-intellectual generation of ideas, interviews, script writing, etc.) and group (expert commissions, Delphi, collective generation ideas, etc.)

Forecasting stage:

v predictive orientation,

v simulation,

v post-forecast orientation.

social engineering

The development of engineering design in the early twentieth century. Design thinking in management activities. Concept of social project activity. Social engineering.

Design as an activity, by which it is customary to understand the foresight of what should be. She is characterized by:

‣‣‣ the ideal nature of the action;

‣‣‣ focusing on the appearance of something in the future

Essence of social design consists in constructing desired states of the future. But this not dream and not adventure. The future can be designed, the whole question is what kind of people will do it and for what?

Project focus:

1) innovative - based on life conceptʼʼchange the worldʼʼ;

2) conservative - its basis is life principleʼʼprotect traditionsʼʼʼʼ

3) anti-innovative - its main principle is ʼʼnot to interfereʼʼ.

Availability of necessary resources as the basis of the project: The need for change. Readiness of people for change. Availability of material and financial resources.

Approaches to creating projects in social work:

‣‣‣ object-oriented - aims to create new or reconstruction of an existing facility, which performs an important socio-cultural function;

‣‣‣ problem-oriented - is based on the understanding of design in social work as a special technology development of variant models of solutions to current and prospective socially significant problems, taking into account the data of social diagnostic studies, available resources and the planned goals for the development of a regulated social situation;

‣‣‣ subject-oriented - takes into account the discrepancy between subjective worlds, value regulation and active behavior of subjects in the social environment. The source of the project idea is the value-normative system of the project creator.

Thomas' Theorem: ʼʼ If people define certain situations as real, those situations are real in their consequencesʼʼ .

Philosophy of the subject-oriented approach.

§ Man open social change, by nature he is a social experimenter.
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But the measure of openness varies by type of society and situation.

§ Man unique in its totality, but in its separate properties, it typical . There will always be a group of people who will support the project.

§ Division into their and strangers – natural way restructuring society, overcoming social differences and establishing social distances.

§ The art of social project activity consists in observing the social requirements for it - create the possible.

Social project - it is a social innovation constructed by the initiator of the project, the purpose of which is to create, modernize or maintain a material or spiritual value in a changed environment, ĸᴏᴛᴏᴩᴏᴇ has spatio-temporal and resource boundaries and whose impact on people is recognized as positive in its social significance.

Social innovation -type of management decision, the idea of which provides for a purposeful change in a social phenomenon or process, and the implementation consists in the implementation of this idea.

Methods of social forecasting - concept and types. Classification and features of the category "Methods of social forecasting" 2017, 2018.

Methods of social forecasting.

Types of social forecasts

Methods of social forecasting

The concept and types of social forecasting

Topic 2. Sociological monitoring of security

social forecasting is a special study on the likely prospects for the development of a social facility. Moreover, the object can be a social phenomenon, a process, and a social stratum, and the social state of the individual.

The purpose of social forecasting is the preparation of scientifically based proposals on the directions in which the development of a social object is desirable. In the course of scientific forecasting, two main tasks are solved:

The goal of the probable development of the object is determined and motivated;

The means and ways of achieving this goal are determined.

Types of social forecasting: socio-economic, legal, socio-political, socio-culturological, sociological, etc.

Social Prediction Functions:

1. orientation involves optimizing the choice of socially significant goals and means of achieving them

2. normative means identifying the most important trends in social development,

3. precautionary involves the definition and description of possible negative consequences in probable development trends.

General scientific: analysis, synthesis, extrapolation - extension of conclusions regarding one part of a phenomenon to another part, to the phenomenon as a whole for the future, interpolation - restoring the value of a function at an intermediate point from its known values \u200b\u200bat neighboring points, induction, deduction, analogies, hypotheses, experimentation and simulation - transfer research activities to another object acting as a substitute for the object under study.

interscientific, focused on the collective opinion, the opinion of the majority of experts :

1. brainstorming method is a collective expert assessment of the predicted event. It involves a joint discussion of the problem by specialists from different research areas, scientific schools and is focused on convergence of expert positions.

2. method "Delphi" distinguishes the anonymity of the work of experts and the written form of assessments.

To private scientific methods social forecasting usually include a survey of experts, testing, etc.

I. Forecasts differ based on the target criterion:

1. Search forecast, the content of which is to determine the possible states of the forecasting object in the future. Such a forecast answers the question: what is most likely to happen if the current trends continue?

2. Normative forecast, the content of which is to determine the ways and conditions for achieving possible states (taken as given) of the object of forecasting in the future. This forecast answers the question: what are the ways to achieve the desired result?

3. Comprehensive forecast, containing elements of search and normative forecasts.

II. By lead time There are the following types of forecasts:

Operational forecast with a lead time of up to 1 month;

Short-term forecast with a lead period of 1 month to 1 year;

Medium-term forecast with a lead time of 1 to 5 years;

Long-term forecast with a lead time of 5 to 15 years;

Long-range forecast with a lead time of more than 15 years.

III. By scale of forecasting allocate:

World Forecasts;

State forecasts;

Structural (intersectoral and interregional) forecasts;

Forecasts for the development of individual complexes of industry, economy, culture;

Industry forecasts;

Regional forecasts;

IV. By object of study differ:

-natural science predictions(meteorological, hydrological, geological, biological, cosmological

-scientific and technical forecasts, which cover the prospects for the development of scientific and technological progress;

-social predictions, which cover various areas activities of people and relationships between them.

social prediction information extrapolation

Currently, there are about 220 forecasting methods, but most often no more than 10 are used in practice, among them: factual (extrapolation, interpolation, trend analysis), expert (including survey, questioning), publication (including including patent), citation-index, scenario, matrix, modeling, analogy, graph building, etc. .

Now we will take a closer look at the methods that are the most modern and applicable methods of social forecasting, as they are constantly being improved by new information technologies and are more convenient and practical to use: the factual method (extrapolation), modeling and expertise.

When forming forecasts using extrapolation, as a rule, they proceed from statistically emerging trends in changes in certain quantitative characteristics of an object. Estimated functional systemic and structural characteristics. Extrapolation methods are one of the most common and most developed among the totality of forecasting methods.

With the help of these methods, the quantitative parameters of large systems, the quantitative properties of the economic, scientific, production potential, information on the effectiveness of scientific and technological progress, the characteristics of the ratio of individual subsystems, blocks, elements in the system of indicators are extrapolated. complex systems and etc .

But the level of reality of such forecasts and, accordingly, the degree of confidence in them are largely determined by the reasonableness of the choice of extrapolation limits and the stability of the correspondence of "measuring instruments" in relation to the essence of the phenomenon under consideration.

The method is effective for short-term forecasts, if the data of the dynamic series are pronounced and stable. A series of dynamics (or a dynamic series) is a series of chronologically located logical sequence numerical values statistical indicator that determines the change social phenomena in time .

However, in social forecasting, the possibilities of extrapolation as a forecasting method are somewhat limited. This is due to a number of reasons that are related to the fact that social processes develop over time. This limits the possibilities of their accurate modeling. So, up to a certain point, the process can slowly increase, and then a period of rapid development begins, which ends with a saturation stage. After that, the process stabilizes again. If such features of the course of social processes are not taken into account, then the application of the extrapolation method can lead to an error.

Modeling is a method of studying objects of knowledge on their analogues (models) - real or mental.

An analogue of an object can be, for example, its layout (reduced, proportionate or enlarged), drawing, diagram, etc. AT social sphere mental models are used more often. Working with models allows you to transfer experimentation from a real social object to its mentally constructed duplicate and avoid the risk of an unsuccessful, all the more dangerous for people management decision.

main feature mental model and lies in the fact that it can be subjected to any kind of tests, which practically consist in changing the parameters of itself and the environment in which it (as an analogue of a real object) exists. This is the great advantage of the model. It can also act as a model, a kind of ideal type, an approximation to which may be desirable for the creators of the project.

In social design, it is more accurate to say that a model created on the basis of a plan and preliminary information makes it possible to identify, clarify and limit the goals of the project being developed.

At the same time, the disadvantage of the model is its simplification. Certain properties and characteristics of a real object in it are coarsened or not taken into account at all as insignificant. If this were not done, the work with the model would be extremely complicated, and the model itself would not contain dense, compact information about the object. And yet there are potential errors in the application of modeling to social engineering and forecasting.

The value of non-mathematical modeling for social design is very high. The model allows not only to develop an effective management decision, but to simulate conflict situations, probable when making a decision, and ways to reach agreement. In fact, modeling is any kind business games. Analysis and modeling of social systems in recent times unfold into an autonomous sociological discipline with original mathematical software.

The most practiced forecasting method is peer review. The method of examination is based on the accumulated experience, knowledge of the features of the functioning and development of the objects under study.

Trill's book The Science of Management (1911) laid the foundation for the method of examination. In Russia, the science of expertise began to develop in the 1950s-1960s.

The method is used when there is uncertainty. Expertise is an assumption: what needs to be done in order to have “something”; or “what happens if…” .

Expertise - the final judgment of an expert (or a group of experts, the population) about the dynamics of the indicators of the analyzed object or about alternative options for their possible development in the future, which is: objective, scientifically substantiated, probabilistic in nature, corrected within the forecast period as it becomes available new information, verifiable after the end of the forecast period, must be clear, clear, not allow unexpected interpretations, strictly correspond to the task for the forecast, be conclusive and reproducible.

The main objectives of the examination are: to increase the validity of decisions made on the basis of expert opinions; control of compliance with and / or establishment of correspondence between the characteristics of the object of examination and the requirements provided for by regulatory, legal and legislative documents various levels.

Expert forecasting methods are the most in demand, they work well for long periods and are the main ones for long-term forecasting. Consider the popular examination methods:

The Delphi method is further development questionnaire survey methods and consists of several rounds of sequential anonymous questioning of experts with feedback. Feedback is carried out due to the fact that before each subsequent round of the survey, the experts are informed of the generalized results of the previous round. The number of rounds is determined either by the level of accuracy required or by the level of detail of the problem. The Delphi procedure only uses numbers.

The Delphi Method is an iterative procedure that allows each expert's opinion to be criticized by everyone else without actually having them face to face.

The Delphi Method (other names: Delphi Method, Delphi Oracle Method) appeared in the 1950-1960s in the United States to study military-strategic and military-technical problems. Developed by RAND Corporation, authors are O. Helmer, T. Gordon, N. Dolkey.

The idea of the method is to create a mechanism that ensures the anonymity of the points of view of individuals and thereby minimizes the influence of eloquent and persuasive individuals on the behavior of the group as a whole. All interactions between members of the group are under the control of the coordinator or manager who directs all the activities of the group. The coordinator regulates the procedure for analyzing opinions and keeps them anonymous. The group estimate is calculated by him by some averaging (usually by finding the average value, or median) and brought to the attention of all members of the group.

The purpose of the Delphi method is to reduce psychological pressure experienced by some people during personal contact, and, therefore, to exclude the influence on the final result of a particularly eloquent or strong personality. The Delphi method, which assumes anonymity of opinions, an iterative processing of results, controlled feedback, numerical estimates, and the statistical determination of group estimates, is a valuable research tool for developers of simulation models.

The main principles of the "Delphi" method are:

- anonymity of participants (survey participants only fill out questionnaires and do not interact personally);

ѕ the questionnaire procedure is multi-round;

ѕ after the next round, the information is processed and transferred to the participants, anonymity is preserved.

When using the Delphi method, a greater agreement is achieved between group opinion and the opinions of individual members of the group than with methods that require personal contacts.

The brainstorming method is based on the collective generation of ideas expressed spontaneously by participants in various professions and specializations. The brainstorming method appeared in the United States of America at the end of the 30s, and finally took shape and became known to a wide range of specialists with the release in 1953 of A. Osborne's book "Guided Imagination", in which the principles and procedures of creative thinking were revealed. Its essence lies in the fact that when making a collective decision, two main tasks are solved:

- generating new ideas regarding possible options for the development of the process;

ѕ analysis and evaluation of the ideas put forward.

The brainstorming method is based on the psychological and pedagogical patterns of collective activity.

In the context of brainstorming, a discussion is a tool that allows you to remove the so-called barriers, which helps to release creative energy and, by including people in interactive communication, to attach them to active search solutions to the given problem.

Brainstorming is, in fact, the most free form of discussion. The main function of this technology is to ensure the process of generating ideas, without their critical analysis and discussion by the participants.

Commission method ( round table) -- a group of experts meets many times to directly discuss the same issue. In it, the organizer of the examination does not lead the discussion, but only guarantees the intensive work of each expert. The method is operational, but there is a threat of mutual influence of expert opinions, especially the opinions of recognized authorities in this field of research.

The method of commissions takes into account the implementation of the examination in the form of a free exchange of opinions in order to obtain a common opinion of the experts. Face-to-face communication of experts significantly reduces the time of examination, simplifies the acquisition of a single agreed opinion. When using the method of commissions, a discussion program is preliminarily developed. A group of experts is selected "volitionally" - the method of appointment. Usually it is 10-12 people. To obtain a high-quality forecast, a free and face-to-face exchange of opinions between experts is provided, that is, open communication. Means of ensuring openness can be, in particular, the personal statements of experts and, if possible, the rejection of impersonal judgments such as “it is usually believed that” or “they say that”. Of course, openness presupposes not only the readiness to state one's own position, but also the desire and ability to accept the position of other experts.

As part of the discussion of the problem, experts must follow the principle of psychological safety: the position of the expert and the judgments that he expresses should not offend the dignity of other experts or turn the discussion of the problem into a way to assert their own superiority; the mutual desire and readiness of experts to consider and solve the problem under discussion is important. The task of correlating, coordinating one's own point of view with other opinions is not always easy to solve. Therefore, experts need to be trained interpersonal communication, and it is desirable for the organizers of the procedure to take into account the recommendations of psychologists - specialists in communication.

The interview method involves a conversation between the organizer of forecasting activities and an expert by asking questions about the future state of the forecasting object and its forecasting background. With the “interview” method, the expert is in direct contact with the specialist according to the “question-answer” scheme, during which the forecaster, in accordance with a pre-developed program, puts questions to the expert regarding the prospects for the development of the predicted object.

The advantage of the "interview" method: a favorable environment, an isolated room, the absence of third parties and distractions.

Analytical memorandum method - independent work an expert on the analysis of the dynamics of the forecasting object and possible ways of its development, it is assumed that the expert forecaster performs independently analytical work with an assessment of the state and development paths, setting out his thoughts in writing. At the same time, the preference method, the rank method, is used to identify the importance of problems and solutions.

Scenario method - a method for constructing a forecast scenario - an analytical forecasting method based on establishing a logical sequence of states of the forecast object and the forecast background in time under various conditions to determine the development goals of this object.

Thus, script writing is the identification of a logical sequence of events in order to show how, based on the present situation, the future state of an object can unfold step by step. The description is usually made in explicit time coordinates. The main meaning of the scenario is the definition of the general goal of the development of the object of forecasting, the identification of background factors and the formulation of criteria for evaluating goals. The scenario uses pre-prepared forecasts and materials for the development of the forecasting object.

When developing a scenario, since a group of specialists takes part in it, there is always uncertainty associated with the subjectivity of their judgments. The value of the scenario is higher, the lower the degree of uncertainty, i.e., the more degree consensus of expert opinions. Therefore, an important quality of the scenario is the consistency of expert opinions.

The script can be presented both in text and numerical form.

This method is based on certain principles of special processing of scientific and technical information, involves identifying the degree of influence of new technologies and equipment on the pace of development of the scientific and technical process and, as a result, social processes. As noted above, there is a close relationship between various areas of forecasting, generated by the determination of all phenomena existing in objective reality. And therefore, changes occurring in nature or in the field of technology can cause serious changes in the social life of society, give rise to both positive and negative processes in it.

There are three main specific methods of forecasting: extrapolation, modeling, expertise.

The classification of forecasting into extrapolation, modeling and expertise is rather conditional, since predictive models involve extrapolation and expert assessments, the latter are the results of extrapolation and modeling, etc. In the development of forecasts, methods of analogy, deduction, induction, various statistical methods, economic , sociological, etc.

1. Extrapolation method.

This method was one of the historically first methods that became widely used in social forecasting. Extrapolation is the distribution of conclusions made in the study of one part of a phenomenon (process) to another part, including the unobservable. In the social field, it is a way of predicting future events and states, based on the assumption that some trends that have manifested themselves in the past and in the present will continue.

Extrapolation example: a series of numbers 1, 4, 9, 16 suggests that the next number will be 25, since the beginning of the series is the squares of the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4. We extrapolated the found principle to the unwritten part of the series.

Extrapolation is widely used in demography when calculating the future size of the population, its sex and age and family structures, etc. Using this method, the future rejuvenation or aging of the population can be calculated, the characteristics of fertility, mortality, marriage rates are given in periods that are several years away from the present. decades.

Via computer programs(Excel, etc.) you can post-
dig extrapolation in the form of a graph in accordance with the available formulas.

2. Modeling.

Modeling is a method of studying objects of knowledge on their analogues (models) - real or mental.

An analogue of an object can be, for example, its layout (reduced, proportionate or enlarged), drawing, diagram, etc. In the social sphere, mental models are more often used. Working with models allows you to transfer experimentation from a real social object to its mentally constructed duplicate and avoid the risk of an unsuccessful, all the more dangerous for people, management decision. The main feature of a mental model is that it can be subject to any kind of tests, which practically consist in changing the parameters of itself and the environment in which it (as an analogue of a real object) exists. This is the great advantage of the model. It can also act as a model, a kind of ideal type, an approximation to which may be desirable for the creators of the project.

3. Expertise.

Expertise is a special method of forecasting. In social design, it is used not only to solve problems of predictive justification, but also wherever it is necessary to deal with issues with a low level of certainty of the parameters to be studied.

Expertise in the context of artificial intelligence research is interpreted as resolution of hard-to-formalizable(or poorly formalized) tasks. Arose in connection with the problems of programming, this understanding of expertise has acquired a system-wide character. It is the difficulty of formalizing a certain task that makes other methods of its study ineffective, except for expertise. As a way to describe the problem by formal means is found, the role of accurate measurements and calculations increases and, on the contrary, the effectiveness of expert assessments decreases.

So, expertise is a study of a problem that is difficult to formalize, which is carried out by forming an opinion (preparing a conclusion) of a specialist who is able to make up for the lack or non-systematic nature of information on the issue under study with his knowledge, intuition, experience in solving similar problems and relying on "common sense".

A social project is subject to expertise throughout its development and implementation.

At the stage of concept development, many indicators are set by experts to measure the effectiveness of the project.

Project viability assessment relies heavily on expert opinions both for the project and for social environment into which it is embedded.

Diagnostic and predictive research in the social field is impossible without the use of expert methods.

When considering the prepared text of the project by the competition commissions, investors, state authorities and local governments, other organizations that make management decisions on the project, an examination is also carried out.

The project is evaluated by experts within the framework of current control over its implementation.

Finally, the completion of the project, the establishment of whether it was possible to implement it in accordance with the plan, also involves an examination.

If we proceed from the essence of the concepts developed by these authors, then management appears as a conscious social process, based on reliable knowledge of the systematic impact of the subject of management (managed subsystem) on social facility(managed subsystem) through decision-making, implementation of planning, organization and control necessary in order to ensure the effective functioning and development of the social system (organization), the achievement of its set goal

Modern management guided by several fundamental principles:

1. The principle of organic interdependence and integrity of the subject and object of management. Management as a process of purposeful and organizing influence of the subject (control subsystem) on the object (team, organization, technical system etc.) should form a single integrated system, which has one goal, connection with the external environment, feedback from the goal to the action aimed at achieving it.

2. The principle of state legality of the management system of an organization, firm, institution. Its essence is as follows: the organizational and legal form of the company must meet the requirements and norms of state legislation.

3. The principle of ensuring the internal legal regulation of the creation, functioning and development of the organization. All activities of the organization must be carried out in accordance with the requirements of the internal charter (constituent agreement), the content of which must comply with the laws of the country.

4. The principle of hiring a leader. In accordance with this requirement, the issue of appointing or choosing a leader is decided. This is determined by the content of the activities, goals and objectives of the leader.

5. The principle of unity of specialization and unification of management processes. Specialization increases its effectiveness. However, this can not always be used due to the low repeatability of management processes. Therefore, specialization should be supplemented by the universalization of management, the development of common methods.

6. The principle of multivariance management decisions. This principle is dictated by the need to select one rational and effective solution from a variety of possible ones, including alternative solutions for the performance of the system's functions and the achievement of its goal.

7. The principle of ensuring the stability of the system in relation to the external environment.

The sustainability and stability of the management system is determined by the quality of strategic management and operational regulation, leading to better adaptability of the system (organization) to changes in the external environment, including unfavorable ones.

8. The principle of mobility of the management process. Along with sustainability, management must be mobile, i.e. adapt quickly and without much difficulty to changes in the internal environment of the organization (firm) and external environment- consumers of goods and services, market conditions, to scientific and technical changes.

9. The principle of control automation. The higher the level of management automation, the higher the quality of the management process and the lower the costs. The condition for automation of management is the development of unification and standardization of elements of the management system, production, specialization of the functions performed.

10. The principle of unity of leadership. The essence of this principle can be expressed as follows: in one organization, whether industrial enterprise, a trading company, a scientific institution, there must be one manager and one program for a set of operations pursuing the same goal. The famous French specialist in the field of management theory, Henri Fayol, noted that the point is not a lack or excess of principles, but that one must be able to operate with them.